S&P close price end of 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect the S&P close price end of 2026 to be between 7,400 and 7,599.99, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- An internal server error severely hindered the research process.
- Critical server-side issues prevented market analysis from completion.
- Data retrieval for S&P 500 price targets was unsuccessful.
- No deep research analysis or key catalysts were available.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7,400 to 7,599.99 | 12.0% | 12.1% | Strong economic growth and robust corporate earnings drive the S&P 500 higher. |
| 7,600 to 7,799.99 | 9.0% | 9.2% | Exceptional innovation and optimistic investor sentiment propel significant market gains. |
| 6,800 to 6,999.99 | 5.0% | 4.8% | Sustained economic expansion and stable inflation support a moderate S&P 500 advance. |
| 3,999.99 or below | 5.0% | 2.9% | A severe recession and ongoing geopolitical crises cause a significant market decline. |
| 7,200 to 7,399.99 | 7.0% | 8.2% | Favorable monetary policy and strong corporate profits boost S&P 500 valuations. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Based on the provided chart data, this prediction market, which tracks the probability of the S&P 500 closing above a specific level by year-end 2026, has exhibited a distinct sideways trading pattern. Over 581 observed data points, the price has been confined to a very narrow range between $0.09 and $0.20. The market's current price of $0.12 is nearly unchanged from its starting price of $0.13, indicating a near-complete lack of a long-term directional trend. This price consolidation suggests that, despite the long time horizon, the market's collective forecast has remained remarkably stable and has not been significantly influenced by new information.
The chart does not show any significant price spikes or drops that break from the established range; rather, it displays minor oscillations within these bounds. As no specific context or news events were provided, it is not possible to attribute these small fluctuations to any particular catalyst. The total volume of over 116,000 contracts indicates a baseline level of interest, but the sample data points, with volumes ranging from 746 down to zero, suggest that trading activity is sporadic and lacks consistent conviction. This inconsistent volume, coupled with the tight price range, points to a market that is not being actively driven by strong opinions. The most important price levels are the well-defined support at $0.09 and resistance at $0.20, which have contained all price action to date.
Overall, the chart suggests a market sentiment that is stable and unchanging. Traders have collectively assessed the probability of this market resolving to YES as a low, but non-zero, possibility, consistently pricing it in the 9% to 20% range. The lack of a breakout in either direction, combined with the often-low daily volume, implies that participants have a low degree of conviction and are taking a long-term, wait-and-see approach. The market appears to be in a state of equilibrium, reflecting a deeply entrenched consensus that this outcome is unlikely but remains a distant possibility.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market concerns the S&P 500 close price at the end of 2026, specifically on December 31, 2026, at 4:00 PM. The provided page content does not specify the exact conditions for a YES or NO resolution, nor does it detail any special settlement conditions.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7,400 to 7,599.99 | $0.12 | $0.89 | 12% |
| 7,600 to 7,799.99 | $0.09 | $0.92 | 9% |
| 7,800 to 7,999.99 | $0.08 | $0.93 | 8% |
| 7,200 to 7,399.99 | $0.07 | $0.94 | 7% |
| 8,000 to 8,199.99 | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
| 6,000 to 6,199.99 | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| 6,200 to 6,399.99 | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| 6,400 to 6,599.99 | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| 6,600 to 6,799.99 | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| 6,800 to 6,999.99 | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| 3,999.99 or below | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| 5,800 to 5,999.99 | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| 7,000 to 7,199.99 | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| 8,200 to 8,399.99 | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| 5,000 to 5,199.99 | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| 5,200 to 5,399.99 | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| 5,400 to 5,599.99 | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| 5,600 to 5,799.99 | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| 8,400 to 8,599.99 | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| 4,000 to 4,199.99 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| 4,200 to 4,399.99 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| 4,400 to 4,599.99 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| 4,600 to 4,799.99 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| 4,800 to 4,999.99 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| 8,600 to 8,799.99 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| 8,800 to 9,000 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| 9,000.01 or above | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. What Caused The Research Query To Fail?
| Research Outcome | Internal Server Error |
|---|---|
| Data Retrieved | None |
| Action Required | Re-attempt research or investigate server logs |
An internal server error severely hindered the research process. This technical issue, originating on the server's end, prevented the successful retrieval of information pertinent to the median projection for the long-run Fed Funds Rate in the Federal Reserve's December 2025 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
Consequently, no relevant data or findings could be collected or analyzed. As a direct result of the server malfunction, there are currently no specific data points or research outcomes to report regarding the question at hand.
Further research or server investigation is now required. Addressing this issue necessitates further action to proceed with the research. Future attempts to gather information for this question may be required, or an investigation into the server's operational status might be necessary to resolve the underlying technical problem.
5. Why Was Research On This Question Unavailable?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
| Data Extraction | No data extracted due to error |
Research query encountered a critical server-side issue. The attempt to research the requested question, concerning FactSet's consensus bottom-up S&P 500 EPS estimate for calendar year 2026 by the end of Q4 2025, resulted in an 'Internal Server Error'. This error indicates a problem originating on the server side, which prevented the successful retrieval or processing of any information pertinent to the query.
Consequently, no specific findings or analysis were generated. Due to the server-side interruption, no specific findings, data points, or detailed analysis could be produced for this section. The research process was interrupted and could not proceed to identify or format any relevant content.
6. What Was the Result of the Research Request?
| Research Status | Internal Server Error |
|---|---|
| Data Extraction | Failed |
| Findings Availability | Unavailable |
The research query encountered a technical error. The research process, aimed at identifying Goldman Sachs' Global Investment Research forecast for total S&P 500 corporate share buybacks in calendar year 2025, encountered an 'Internal Server Error'. This technical issue prevented the successful retrieval and processing of information necessary to address the initial query.
No specific data could be extracted or provided. As a direct result of this system failure, no specific data or findings could be extracted to address the initial query. Therefore, it is not possible to provide detailed key findings, specific data points, or a summary of the requested topic. The research operation was ultimately incomplete.
7. Was Research Data Unavailable Due to Internal Server Error?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Action Required | Re-attempt research |
An internal error prevented the retrieval of research findings. An internal server error was encountered during the research process, preventing the retrieval of any relevant findings for the requested question regarding cumulative 2025 net flow into US-domiciled equity funds versus Rest-of-World (RoW) equity funds. This issue indicates a problem with the underlying data source or the research mechanism itself.
No specific data or insights are available. Consequently, no specific data points or detailed insights can be provided at this time, as the primary data source reported an unexpected error rather than delivering research findings. To address this, a subsequent research attempt or troubleshooting of the internal server error is necessary to obtain the required information and generate a comprehensive response.
8. Why Did Research for This Question Encounter an Internal Server Error?
| Research Outcome | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Key Findings | Not Applicable |
The analysis regarding S&P 500 price targets could not be completed. An internal server error occurred during the data retrieval process, preventing the system from accessing or processing any information relevant to the user's query,. This technical issue directly impacted the ability to assess the forward P/E multiple required for the S&P 500 to reach its upper-bound price targets by December 2026, based on 2027 earnings estimates, and its sustainability given a 10-year Treasury yield above 4.0%.
No specific findings, data points, or detailed summaries are available for reporting. Due to the failed research attempt, the system was unable to generate an answer or provide any insights into the requested query,.
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis not available.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: December 31, 2026
- Expiration: January 08, 2027
- Closes: December 31, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis not available.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series
Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 47 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXINXY-25DEC31-T7600: NO (Dec 31, 2025)
- KXINXY-25DEC31-B7500: NO (Dec 31, 2025)
- KXINXY-25DEC31-B7300: NO (Dec 31, 2025)
- KXINXY-25DEC31-B7100: NO (Dec 31, 2025)
- KXINXY-25DEC31-B6900: YES (Dec 31, 2025)
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