Portland at Phoenix
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Player health is the primary factor for play-in game outcomes.
- Recent 2026 NBA data shows competitive Portland-Phoenix matchups.
- Portland defeated Phoenix directly on February 22, 2026.
- Research did not yield insider signals for this prediction market.
- Market resolves April 14, 2026, based on a single game outcome.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| yes Portland wins by over 4.5 points,yes Over 227.5 points scored,yes Over 207.5 points scored | 10.9% | 4.8% | Portland is favored for a moderate win in a high-scoring game. |
| no Phoenix wins by over 14.5 points,yes Over 212.5 points scored,yes Over 204.5 points scored | 0.0% | 0.0% | Model and market aligned |
| no Phoenix wins by over 17.5 points,yes Over 212.5 points scored,yes Over 204.5 points scored | 0.0% | 0.0% | Model and market aligned |
| no Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points,no Over 227.5 points scored,no Over 216.5 points scored | 0.0% | 0.5% | Phoenix is not expected to win decisively, and total points will not be very high. |
| no Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points,no Over 230.5 points scored,no Over 216.5 points scored | 0.0% | 0.0% | Model and market aligned |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "YES" resolution for this market occurs if Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points AND the total points scored in the game are over 216.5 points. Conversely, a "NO" resolution occurs if Phoenix does not win by over 2.5 points OR if the total points scored are 216.5 or fewer. The market opened on April 13, 2026, and will close with a projected payout on April 28, 2026, at 10:00 PM EDT, with the outcome verified by the league governing the game.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| yes Portland wins by over 4.5 points,yes Over 227.5 points scored,yes Over 207.5 points scored | $1.00 | $1.00 | 11% |
| no Phoenix wins by over 14.5 points,yes Over 212.5 points scored,yes Over 204.5 points scored | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Phoenix wins by over 17.5 points,yes Over 212.5 points scored,yes Over 204.5 points scored | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points,no Over 227.5 points scored,no Over 216.5 points scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points,no Over 230.5 points scored,no Over 216.5 points scored | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points,no Over 230.5 points scored,no Over 219.5 points scored | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points,yes Over 227.5 points scored,yes Over 216.5 points scored | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points,yes Over 230.5 points scored,yes Over 216.5 points scored | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Phoenix wins by over 20.5 points,yes Over 212.5 points scored,yes Over 204.5 points scored | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Phoenix wins by over 5.5 points,no Over 227.5 points scored,no Over 216.5 points scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Phoenix wins by over 8.5 points,yes Over 221.5 points scored,yes Over 213.5 points scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Portland wins by over 1.5 points,yes Over 212.5 points scored,yes Over 204.5 points scored | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Portland wins by over 10.5 points,yes Over 212.5 points scored,yes Over 204.5 points scored | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Portland wins by over 10.5 points,yes Over 215.5 points scored,yes Over 204.5 points scored | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Portland wins by over 4.5 points,yes Over 227.5 points scored,yes Over 216.5 points scored | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| no Portland wins by over 7.5 points,yes Over 212.5 points scored,yes Over 204.5 points scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points,no Over 227.5 points scored,no Over 216.5 points scored | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points,no Over 236.5 points scored,yes Over 210.5 points scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points,no Over 242.5 points scored,yes Over 204.5 points scored | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points,yes Over 212.5 points scored,yes Over 204.5 points scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points,yes Over 215.5 points scored,yes Over 216.5 points scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points,yes Over 221.5 points scored,yes Over 219.5 points scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points,yes Over 224.5 points scored,yes Over 210.5 points scored | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points,yes Over 224.5 points scored,yes Over 219.5 points scored | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points,yes Over 227.5 points scored,no Over 216.5 points scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points,yes Over 227.5 points scored,yes Over 216.5 points scored | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points,yes Over 230.5 points scored,no Over 216.5 points scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points,yes Over 230.5 points scored,yes Over 216.5 points scored | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points,yes Over 230.5 points scored,yes Over 219.5 points scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Phoenix wins by over 5.5 points,yes Over 227.5 points scored,yes Over 216.5 points scored | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Phoenix wins by over 5.5 points,yes Over 230.5 points scored,yes Over 213.5 points scored | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Phoenix wins by over 8.5 points,no Over 230.5 points scored,no Over 216.5 points scored | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Portland wins by over 1.5 points,yes Over 212.5 points scored,yes Over 204.5 points scored | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. What is the most crucial factor for NBA play-in game outcomes?
| Most Important Factor | Health and availability of key players [^] |
|---|---|
| Suns Injury Report Status | Released for play-in game [^] |
| Play-in Game Significance | Determines NBA playoff advancement [^] |
5. What Are Recent Portland Trail Blazers vs. Phoenix Suns Game Results?
| Portland Trail Blazers Win 1 | 92-77 vs Phoenix on February 22, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Portland Trail Blazers Win 2 | 109-104 vs Phoenix (overcame 22-point deficit) [^] |
| Phoenix Suns Win | 130-125 vs Portland on February 4, 2026 [^] |
6. What Factors Challenge Phoenix Suns' Play-In Consensus?
| Recent Head-to-Head Result | Portland defeated Phoenix 92-77 (February 22, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Phoenix Injury Report | Issued for Play-In matchup against Portland [^] |
| Play-In Tournament Dynamics | Unpredictable, high-stakes contest (April 14, 2026) [^] |
7. What Signals Are Informed Participants Sending for Portland vs. Phoenix Prediction Market?
| Suns vs. Trail Blazers Outcome | Suns 130, Trail Blazers 125 (February 4, 2026 [^]) |
|---|---|
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns Outcome | Trail Blazers 92, Suns 77 (February 22, 2026 [^]) |
| Game Summary Date | April 14, 2026 [^] |
8. What Key Event Resolves the Portland at Phoenix Prediction Market?
| Primary Resolution Event | NBA Play-In Tournament game [^] |
|---|---|
| Specific Game Date | April 14, 2026 [^] |
| Tournament Name | 2026 SoFi Play-In Tournament [^] |
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: April 29, 2026
- Closes: April 29, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 18 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S20269E2D44215C4-D0ADB8B0090: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S20262915524527E-CF09835BB7C: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026E633E6A1686-B234D4BBB32: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026B09C602F8D9-9A13F2D22F7: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026B09C602F8D9-21915F87200: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
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