Combo
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect yes Cameron Young,yes Matt Fitzpatrick,yes Russell Henley,yes Scottie Scheffler,yes Tommy Fleetwood,yes Xander Schauffele, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- "Combo" markets resolve positively only if all underlying events do.
- Major investments and real-time mechanics drive dynamic "Combo" market probabilities.
- "Combo" contracts carry an inherent risk of combinatorial overpricing.
- "Combo" markets allow traders to combine multiple event outcomes.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| yes Jordan Spieth,yes Justin Thomas,yes Max Homa,yes Shane Lowry,yes Sepp Straka,yes Tony Finau | 3.8% | 1.3% | The combined performance likelihood for this selection of golfers is modest. |
| yes Cameron Young,yes Matt Fitzpatrick,yes Russell Henley,yes Scottie Scheffler,yes Tommy Fleetwood,yes Xander Schauffele | 5.8% | 2.1% | This selection includes multiple top-ranked players, elevating collective performance expectations. |
| yes Brian Harman,yes Jordan Spieth,yes Patrick Cantlay,yes Russell Henley,yes Scottie Scheffler,yes Xander Schauffele | 5.1% | 1.8% | A strong collective of consistent performers drives a notable outcome probability. |
| yes Akshay Bhatia,yes Cameron Young,yes Matt Fitzpatrick,yes Russell Henley,yes Sam Burns,yes Scottie Scheffler | 5.4% | 2.0% | The inclusion of several in-form players contributes to an elevated outcome probability. |
| yes Adam Schenk,yes Garrick Higgo,yes Joe Highsmith,yes Jhonattan Vegas,yes Karl Vilips,yes Tom Hoge | 0.0% | 0.0% | Model and market aligned |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
No historical price data available.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "Yes" resolution occurs if "yes Akshay Bhatia,yes Brian Harman,yes Daniel Berger,yes David Lipsky,yes Rickie Fowler,yes Ryo Hisatsune" comes to pass; otherwise, it resolves "No." The market opens on April 13, 2026, at 11:36 PM EDT, closes on May 16, 2026, at 8:00 PM EDT, and the projected payout is also May 16, 2026, at 8:00 PM EDT. The outcome is verified using information from the league governing the game, with specific links provided for NCAA Football and the NFL.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| yes Cameron Young,yes Matt Fitzpatrick,yes Russell Henley,yes Scottie Scheffler,yes Tommy Fleetwood,yes Xander Schauffele | $1.00 | $1.00 | 6% |
| yes Akshay Bhatia,yes Cameron Young,yes Matt Fitzpatrick,yes Russell Henley,yes Sam Burns,yes Scottie Scheffler | $1.00 | $1.00 | 5% |
| yes Brian Harman,yes Jordan Spieth,yes Patrick Cantlay,yes Russell Henley,yes Scottie Scheffler,yes Xander Schauffele | $1.00 | $1.00 | 5% |
| yes Jordan Spieth,yes Justin Thomas,yes Max Homa,yes Shane Lowry,yes Sepp Straka,yes Tony Finau | $1.00 | $1.00 | 4% |
| yes Adam Schenk,yes Garrick Higgo,yes Joe Highsmith,yes Jhonattan Vegas,yes Karl Vilips,yes Tom Hoge | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Akshay Bhatia,yes Brian Harman,yes Daniel Berger,yes David Lipsky,yes Rickie Fowler,yes Ryo Hisatsune | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Akshay Bhatia,yes Cameron Young,yes Max Homa,yes Rickie Fowler,yes Sam Burns,yes Sudarshan Yellamaraju | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Akshay Bhatia,yes Collin Morikawa,yes Ludvig Aberg,yes Matt Fitzpatrick,yes Russell Henley,yes Scottie Scheffler | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Akshay Bhatia,yes Ludvig Aberg,yes Min Woo Lee,yes Russell Henley,yes Scottie Scheffler,yes Xander Schauffele | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Brian Harman,yes Cameron Young,yes Jake Knapp,yes Patrick Cantlay,yes Russell Henley,yes Sepp Straka | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Brian Harman,yes Collin Morikawa,yes Jacob Bridgeman,yes Ryo Hisatsune,yes Sahith Theegala,yes Xander Schauffele | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Brian Harman,yes Daniel Berger,yes Justin Thomas,yes Maverick McNealy,yes Patrick Cantlay,yes Russell Henley | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Brian Harman,yes Jordan Spieth,yes Justin Thomas,yes Russell Henley,yes Scottie Scheffler,yes Xander Schauffele | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Brian Harman,yes Jordan Spieth,yes Maverick McNealy,yes Russell Henley,yes Sam Burns,yes Scottie Scheffler | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Cameron Young,yes Collin Morikawa,yes Ludvig Aberg,yes Patrick Cantlay,yes Robert MacIntyre,yes Si Woo Kim | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Cameron Young,yes Collin Morikawa,yes Ludvig Aberg,yes Russell Henley,yes Sam Burns,yes Scottie Scheffler | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Cameron Young,yes Collin Morikawa,yes Ludvig Aberg,yes Shane Lowry,yes Scottie Scheffler,yes Xander Schauffele | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Cameron Young,yes Jacob Bridgeman,yes Jake Knapp,yes Ludvig Aberg,yes Sudarshan Yellamaraju,yes Xander Schauffele | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Cameron Young,yes Jason Day,yes Jordan Spieth,yes Justin Thomas,yes Ludvig Aberg,yes Tommy Fleetwood | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Cameron Young,yes Jason Day,yes Jordan Spieth,yes Justin Thomas,yes Shane Lowry,yes Tommy Fleetwood | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Cameron Young,yes Ludvig Aberg,yes Russell Henley,yes Scottie Scheffler,yes Tommy Fleetwood,yes Xander Schauffele | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Cameron Young,yes Matt Fitzpatrick,yes Patrick Cantlay,yes Russell Henley,yes Tommy Fleetwood,yes Xander Schauffele | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Cameron Young,yes Matt Fitzpatrick,yes Russell Henley,yes Tommy Fleetwood,yes Si Woo Kim,yes Xander Schauffele | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Chris Gotterup,yes Jake Knapp,yes J.J. Spaun,yes Nicolai Hojgaard,yes Pierceson Coody,yes Viktor Hovland | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Ludvig Aberg,yes Matt Fitzpatrick,yes Patrick Cantlay,yes Scottie Scheffler,yes Tommy Fleetwood,yes Xander Schauffele | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Ludvig Aberg,yes Maverick McNealy,yes Russell Henley,yes Sahith Theegala,yes Tommy Fleetwood,yes Viktor Hovland | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Matt Fitzpatrick,yes Maverick McNealy,yes Russell Henley,yes Sam Stevens,yes Sepp Straka,yes Sahith Theegala | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Matt Fitzpatrick,yes Patrick Cantlay,yes Russell Henley,yes Scottie Scheffler,yes Tommy Fleetwood,yes Xander Schauffele | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Matt Fitzpatrick,yes Russell Henley,yes Scottie Scheffler,yes Tommy Fleetwood,yes Si Woo Kim,yes Xander Schauffele | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| yes Maverick McNealy,yes Russell Henley,yes Sam Stevens,yes Sahith Theegala,yes Tommy Fleetwood,yes Viktor Hovland | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. How Do Combo Prediction Markets Resolve Their Outcomes?
| Combo "Yes" Resolution Condition | Every underlying individual event must resolve to "Yes" [^] |
|---|---|
| Combo "No" Resolution Condition | If even one component event resolves to "No," the entire Combo resolves to "No" [^] |
| Key Outcome Factor | Collective resolution of all constituent individual events [^] |
The single most important factor for a "Combo" market outcome is the collective resolution of all underlying events. "Combo" prediction markets, often found on platforms like Kalshi under categories such as "Exotics," are structured to allow traders to speculate on whether a specific set of multiple underlying events will all resolve positively [^]. The market's outcome is therefore entirely dependent on the successful fulfillment of every condition within the specified combination [^].
Each component event must resolve positively for a "Combo" to succeed. For a "Combo" market to resolve as "Yes," every single event included in that particular combination must individually resolve as "Yes" [^]. Conversely, if even one of the numerous component events fails to meet its "Yes" condition and instead resolves as "No," the entire "Combo" market will resolve as "No" [^]. The outcome thus hinges on the simultaneous positive resolution of all underlying events, with the failure of any single component leading to a "No" resolution for the entire "Combo" [^].
5. What Is Driving Probability Shifts in "Combo" Prediction Markets?
| Combos Launch Funding | $100 million [^] |
|---|---|
| Market Driver | Financialization of sports [^] |
| Projected Annual Volume | Over $1 trillion [^] |
Major investment and real-time mechanics drive dynamic Combo market probabilities. The reported "$100 Million ‘Combos’ Launch" around January 2026 significantly shifted probabilities within these markets, injecting substantial capital and expanding offerings [^]. This strategic focus on "Combo" markets led to increased liquidity and new market creations, enabling more frequent probability adjustments as participant engagement grows. These "Combos" are designed as multivariate event (MVE) markets, where probabilities are tracked and updated in real-time based on combined outcomes and trading activity, as detailed in the market's API documentation [^]. The existence of active "Combo" markets for specific sports outcomes, involving athletes such as C.J. Stroud and Patrick Mahomes, confirms that these probabilities are live and continuously respond to unfolding events [^].
Broader prediction market growth and intense competition also shift Combo probabilities. Further influencing "Combo" probabilities is the rapid expansion and increased competition across the prediction market sector. "Combos" have gained recognition for "financializing sports" by directly integrating real-world statistics and outcomes, which facilitates rapid probability adjustments as events unfold [^]. The overall prediction market industry reached an estimated $21 billion in monthly volume in 2026, with forecasts suggesting it could exceed $1 trillion in annual volume [^]. This surge in market volume and participation enhances the efficiency with which "Combo" markets price new information, resulting in continuous probability shifts. Additionally, the "Great Prediction War of 2026," characterized by fierce competition among platforms and the entry of major players like ICE, cultivates an environment where pricing models are constantly refined and updated, directly affecting the precision and responsiveness of "Combo" market probabilities [^].
6. Why Are Combo Contracts Prone to Combinatorial Overpricing?
| Primary Market Risk | Combinatorial overpricing [^] |
|---|---|
| Underlying Cause | Challenges in assessing joint probabilities [^] |
| Market Impact | Inflated prices for Combo contracts [^] |
The strongest case against the current market consensus on "Combo" contracts is the inherent risk of "combinatorial overpricing" [^] . This phenomenon suggests that prediction markets frequently overvalue the combined probability of several simultaneous events, leading to inflated prices for Combo contracts compared to their actual statistical likelihood [^]. Within the Multivariate Market & Event (MVE) and Exotics categories, these contracts are designed for traders to speculate on multiple event outcomes [^], yet their complexity can inadvertently result in significant miscalculations by market participants [^].
Traders often miscalculate joint probabilities, causing significant market mispricing. This overpricing primarily stems from the difficulty traders face in precisely calculating joint probabilities [^]. Instead of accurately multiplying probabilities for independent events or utilizing sophisticated conditional probability models for interdependent scenarios, market participants frequently inaccurately estimate the combined likelihood [^]. Consequently, the implied probability for a Combo contract, derived from its market price, can substantially exceed the statistically sound probability [^]. This mispricing is particularly common in "Exotics" or MVE categories, where complex interdependencies, reduced market liquidity, or limited arbitrage opportunities can allow overvalued contracts to persist [^]. Therefore, buying into the current market consensus on such Combos may represent a poor value proposition due to this fundamental misjudgment [^].
7. What Are the Implications of Combo Markets in Prediction Platforms?
| Combo Feature | Introduced by Kalshi for bundling multiple event outcomes (Kalshi [^]) |
|---|---|
| Overpricing Issue | Combinatorial overpricing identified in a Democratic Senate Primary Combo market (flowframe [^]) |
| Market Volume | $17.9 billion in February volume (Kalshi and Polymarket [^]) |
Combos allow prediction market traders to combine multiple event outcomes. This feature, introduced by prediction market platforms, enables participants to trade on the combined outcome of several distinct events [^]. This capability supports more sophisticated betting strategies, as traders can speculate on a sequence or combination of results rather than individual events. The decision by platforms to offer Combos suggests an institutional belief in their value for attracting and engaging traders seeking complex market opportunities [^].
Experts identify complexities like combinatorial overpricing in Combo markets. Analysts have highlighted potential issues, such as "combinatorial overpricing" in certain bundled markets, implying that the aggregated price for a combined outcome might not always accurately reflect the true probability of its individual components [^]. This indicates that while Combos present new avenues for speculation, they may also create arbitrage opportunities or require a deeper understanding of probabilistic modeling for informed participation [^]. Despite these complexities, the broader prediction market landscape, including platforms offering Combos, shows significant activity, with two major platforms together recording $17.9 billion in volume during February [^], reflecting substantial engagement from participants across various market types.
8. How Do Combo Markets Resolve and What Impacts Their Price?
| Combo Market Resolution (Yes) | All individual constituent markets reach their respective outcomes (Yes) [^] |
|---|---|
| Combo Market Resolution (No) | Any single underlying market resolves to "No" [^] |
| Driver of Price Movement | New information or outcomes for any constituent market [^] |
Combo markets require all constituent parts to resolve positively. A Combo market resolves to "Yes" only when all its individual constituent markets have reached their respective positive outcomes [^]. Conversely, if any single underlying market resolves to "No," the entire Combo market will also resolve to "No" [^]. The upcoming events and deadlines that could resolve a Combo, or cause significant price movement, are directly tied to the resolution dates and unfolding information of each individual event bundled within the Combo, such as the release of December 2025 CPI data for a "December 2025 CPI Combo" [^].
Information affecting any constituent market can significantly move Combo prices. Significant price movement in a Combo market can occur whenever new information or outcomes become apparent for any of its constituent markets [^]. Since a Combo market can only resolve to "Yes" if all bundled events resolve positively, any development that impacts the perceived probability of a single underlying event resolving "Yes" can drastically shift the Combo's price [^]. Therefore, market-moving news, official data releases, or specific event outcomes directly pertaining to any of the individual components of a Combo will directly influence its valuation and eventual resolution [^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 17, 2026
- Closes: May 17, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXMVESPORTSMULTIGAMEEXTENDED-S2026BD9EB1A1A08-88FBFA1B37B: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXMVESPORTSMULTIGAMEEXTENDED-S202692BA61C70FD-6B89680E290: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXMVESPORTSMULTIGAMEEXTENDED-S2026F7287127056-DD30175B5AE: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXMVESPORTSMULTIGAMEEXTENDED-S202637D441FA825-A6A95ECE9FB: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXMVESPORTSMULTIGAMEEXTENDED-S202637D441FA825-D0169A69E42: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
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