2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Marco Rubio to win the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Prediction markets currently identify J.D. Vance and Gavin Newsom as frontrunners.
- Tim Walz and Pete Buttigieg lead early primary state appearances and operative hires.
- J.D. Vance and Gavin Newsom trail in early primary state organizational efforts.
- Specific Super PAC growth rates for leading candidates remain publicly unavailable.
- Media sentiment data for candidates in key early primary states is absent.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rubio | 17.0% | 19.5% | His established political career and experience fuel ongoing consideration for a 2028 bid. |
| Gavin Newsom | 18.0% | 11.3% | His political prominence keeps him as a strong contender in the Democratic primary field. |
| J.D. Vance | 19.0% | 14.1% | Prediction markets continue to assess his potential as a leading Republican contender for 2028. |
| Donald J. Trump | 3.0% | 3.4% | Ongoing speculation about his political future remains a minor factor in the 2028 market. |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 6.0% | 6.9% | Her high public profile contributes to market speculation regarding a future presidential run. |
Current Context
The 2028 U.S. Presidential Election is still distant. The election is officially scheduled to occur on November 7, 2028, and has not yet taken place [^].
Early prediction markets show JD Vance as a frontrunner. Currently, prediction markets, including Polymarket and PredictIt, indicate JD Vance as the candidate with the highest probability of winning the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election [^], [^], [^]. He is currently favored with an estimated 20-25% chance to win, placing him ahead of other potential contenders such as Gavin Newsom [^], [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market for the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election has demonstrated a clear sideways trend, indicating a period of price consolidation. The probability has been trading within a very narrow 3-point range, from a low of 16% to a high of 19%. This tight channel suggests the market has established firm support around the 16% level and is meeting resistance at 19%. The current price of 18% is near the midpoint of this range and very close to its starting price of 17%, highlighting the overall lack of a directional trend. Despite the price stability, the market has seen significant trading activity, with over 400,000 contracts traded, suggesting active participation and price discovery within this established range.
The stable price action is consistent with the provided context that the election is still very distant. With no major campaign events or definitive candidate announcements, there has been a lack of significant news to cause volatility or a breakout from the established trading range. The market appears to have priced in the early status of candidates like JD Vance as frontrunners, as reflected by the current probability, but is now in a holding pattern. The lack of significant spikes or drops indicates that traders are waiting for new information or catalysts to emerge before making a more convicted move in either direction.
Overall, the chart reflects a market sentiment of watchful waiting. The consistent volume shows that traders are engaged, but the sideways price movement points to a collective uncertainty and a lack of conviction about future events this far out from the election. The market has reached a temporary equilibrium, pricing the probability at around 18%, and will likely remain range-bound until new political developments force a re-evaluation of the odds. The support at 16% and resistance at 19% are the key levels to watch for a potential shift in market sentiment.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
- YES Resolution: The market resolves to "Yes" if the specified individual is inaugurated as President of the United States for the term beginning in 2029.
- NO Resolution: The market resolves to "No" if the specified individual is not inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, as the event is mutually exclusive.
- Key Dates/Deadlines: The market opened on May 10, 2025, and closes after the outcome occurs, or by November 7, 2029, at 10:00am EST. Projected payouts are 5 minutes after closing.
- Special Settlement Conditions: The outcome is verified by the Office of the Presidency (whitehouse.gov), and various individuals are prohibited from trading, including federal and state office holders, paid campaign/party staffers, those involved in vote-tallying, major polling/media organization employees, and foreign nationals.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | $0.19 | $0.83 | 19% |
| Gavin Newsom | $0.19 | $0.82 | 18% |
| Marco Rubio | $0.18 | $0.84 | 17% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Josh Shapiro | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Kamala Harris | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Donald J. Trump | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| J.B. Pritzker | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Jon Ossoff | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Pete Buttigieg | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Andy Beshear | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Glenn Youngkin | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Mark Kelly | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Ron DeSantis | $0.03 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Stephen A. Smith | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Wes Moore | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Greg Abbott | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Jamie Dimon | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Nikki Haley | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Tim Walz | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
The market discussion for the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election focuses heavily on Gavin Newsom as a potential Democratic frontrunner, with some traders citing his rising national profile and strong polling against Republicans like J.D. Vance. Conversely, there is skepticism regarding J.D. Vance's suitability for the presidency and a general sentiment that some listed candidates "suck" or have poor odds. A lighthearted but persistent suggestion for Tucker Carlson to be added to the market also features prominently.
4. Are J.D. Vance, Newsom, Shapiro Super PAC Growth Rates Available?
| J.D. Vance Committee Type | Candidate Committee ("JD Vance For Senate Inc.") [^] |
|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom Committee Status | Committee, not a Super PAC [^] |
| Josh Shapiro Data Focus | Gubernatorial campaign finance [^] |
Specific quarter-over-quarter growth rates are not publicly available. No FEC filings or other publicly available sources provide the requested quarter-over-quarter growth rates in funds raised by primary Super PACs affiliated with J.D. Vance, Gavin Newsom, or Josh Shapiro for the period from Q1 2025 through Q4 2026. This data absence is primarily due to the identified committees generally operating as candidate campaign committees rather than Super PACs, and the detailed quarterly growth data for this specific future period is not yet reported.
Affiliated committees for J.D. Vance and Gavin Newsom are not Super PACs. For J.D. Vance, the relevant entity identified is "JD Vance For Senate Inc.," which functions as a candidate committee with FEC filings pertaining to the 2024 and 2026 cycles [^]. Similarly, Gavin Newsom is associated with a "DRAFT COMMITTEE SUPPORTING GAVIN NEWSOM FOR PRESIDENT 2024," which is also identified as a committee and not a Super PAC; specific quarterly growth rates for the 2025-2026 period are not detailed within its filings [^].
Josh Shapiro's fundraising data also pertains to campaign committees. Fundraising information for Josh Shapiro largely relates to his gubernatorial campaigns in Pennsylvania, with records on cash on hand and fundraising extending into early 2026 [^]. This information focuses on his campaign finance activities rather than Super PAC activity or quarter-over-quarter growth rates for the specific future period of 2025-2026.
5. Is Media Sentiment Data Available for 2028 Candidates in Key States?
| Positive-to-Negative Media Sentiment Ratio | Not available for listed candidates (Web Research Results) [^] |
|---|---|
| Iowa Local Media Sentiment | Specific quantitative sentiment data not found (Web Research Results) [^] |
| New Hampshire Local Media Sentiment | Specific quantitative sentiment data not found (Web Research Results) [^] |
Quantitative sentiment data for potential candidates in key states is unavailable. Specific positive-to-negative media sentiment ratios for potential candidates Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, J.D. Vance, or Gretchen Whitmer in Iowa and New Hampshire local media outlets between January 2025 and the Iowa Caucuses could not be found through web research. While articles discussing early political activities and potential 2028 presidential aspirations for these individuals within the specified timeframe were identified, they did not offer the requested quantitative sentiment analysis or ratios for media coverage.
General coverage highlighted early presidential activities and aspirations in 2028. For example, sources indicated potential 2028 presidential candidates from both parties making appearances in Iowa as early as July 2025 [^]. Discussions regarding Harris and Newsom's engagement with New Hampshire Democrats about 2028 have also been noted [^]. The early stages of a "shadow 2028 primary" for Democrats were highlighted by August 2025 [^], and J.D. Vance's potential presidential bid for 2028 has been covered [^]. Additionally, reports concerning figures like Usha Vance [^] were found, but none of these reports included the specific positive-to-negative media sentiment ratio data requested.
6. What are 2026 midterm win-rates for 2028 presidential endorsees?
| Win-rate data availability | No high-confidence data currently available for 2026 midterm governor and senate elections (Web Research Results, 1, 2) [^] |
|---|---|
| Reason for data unavailability | 2026 elections not fully occurred or detailed analyses unpublished (Web Research Results, 1, 2) [^] |
| Potential 2028 candidate activity | Actively engaging in 2026 midterms with endorsements and campaigning (3, 4, 6) [^] |
Win-rate data for 2026 midterm endorsements is currently unavailable. Specific win-rates for candidates publicly endorsed and campaigned for by potential 2028 presidential candidates in the 2026 midterm governor and senate elections across Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan cannot be determined at this time. High-confidence data for these win-rates is not yet accessible because the 2026 elections have only recently occurred or are still in progress, and detailed analyses of endorsees' win-rates for this cycle have not been published in the available sources [Web Research Results, 1, 2]. Consequently, it is not possible to determine which potential 2028 candidate will have the highest win-rate based on current, factual information.
Potential 2028 presidential contenders are actively involved in 2026 elections. Despite the lack of measurable win-rates, these candidates are already making moves in the midterm landscape. Former President Donald Trump, for instance, has begun issuing endorsements for 2026, including backing Stacy Garrity for Pennsylvania governor [^]. Similarly, Democratic presidential hopefuls are exploring opportunities and conducting 'shadow campaigns' during the midterm cycle, frequently traveling to key battleground states to build support and influence [^]. While these activities clearly demonstrate engagement, the specific outcomes of these endorsements and campaigns in terms of win-rates for 2026 are not yet measurable or reported.
7. Who is Making Early Non-Fundraising Appearances in Key Primary States?
| Leading Non-Fundraising Appearances | Tim Walz and Pete Buttigieg (web research) [^] |
|---|---|
| Top State-Level Operative Hiring | Tim Walz and Pete Buttigieg (2025-2027) [^] |
| Walz Earliest Activity | Toured Iowa Republican-held congressional districts March 2025 [^] |
Tim Walz and Pete Buttigieg lead early primary state engagement. Both candidates are making the most frequent non-fundraising appearances and hiring the most state-level political operatives for the 2025-2027 period in the first four primary/caucus states: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Their activities concentrate on building grassroots support, enhancing visibility, and establishing a robust ground game in these critical early states [^].
Both candidates have demonstrated significant, strategic early outreach. Tim Walz, for instance, began touring Republican-held congressional districts in Iowa as early as March 2025, signaling a focus on key battleground regions [^]. Pete Buttigieg also engaged early, holding an in-person town hall event in Iowa in May 2025. Such town halls are characteristic non-fundraising events designed for direct voter engagement and assessing political viability [^]. While other potential candidates like Gavin Newsom have also visited early primary states, including South Carolina [^], Walz and Buttigieg distinguish themselves through more frequent non-fundraising appearances and operative recruitment, based on available web research.
8. Have 2028 U.S. Presidential Candidates Secured Major Endorsements Yet?
| Endorsement Status | No endorsements reported from major labor unions or incumbent governors [^] |
|---|---|
| Election Cycle Stage | Early stages of 2028 U.S. Presidential Election [^] |
| Reporting Date | March 16, 2026 [^] |
The 2028 presidential election cycle is still in its nascent stages. Potential Democratic and Republican candidates are currently exploring their options in what some describe as a "shadow campaign" [^]. While labor unions continue to represent a notable portion of the U.S. workforce [^], formal endorsements from major organizations and political figures typically emerge much later in the election timeline.
No major endorsements have been made as of March 16, 2026. Following the 2026 midterms, no public endorsements have occurred from the top 10 largest labor unions or incumbent Democratic and Republican governors [^]. Therefore, no candidate has yet consolidated support by securing endorsements from at least three distinct major labor unions or gubernatorial figures [^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The 2028 U.S. Presidential Election, scheduled for November 7, 2028, represents a significant upcoming event that could act as a major catalyst for market probabilities and political trajectories.
Early indications from prediction markets, including platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, currently show J.D. Vance as a leading contender with an implied probability of approximately 21-25% to win the election. Gavin Newsom is also identified as a strong candidate, trailing slightly with an implied probability ranging from 17-20% according to these markets [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 07, 2029
- Closes: November 07, 2029
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The 2028 U.S.
- Trigger: Presidential Election, scheduled for November 7, 2028, represents a significant upcoming event that could act as a major catalyst for market probabilities and political trajectories.
- Trigger: Early indications from prediction markets, including platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, currently show J.D.
- Trigger: Vance as a leading contender with an implied probability of approximately 21-25% to win the election.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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