Will Iran hold a presidential election?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Iran to hold a presidential election before January 1, 2027, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- President Raisi's death directly necessitated a snap presidential election.
- Iran's Constitution mandates a new presidential election within 50 days.
- A snap presidential election was conducted on June 28, 2024.
- The election took place before the June 30, 2024 deadline.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 3.0% | 2.4% | Iran held a snap presidential election on June 28, 2024, following President Raisi's death. |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 17.0% | 13.1% | Iran held a snap presidential election on June 28, 2024, following President Raisi's death. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
The market has traded between 2.1% and 5.2% YES probability, with a current reading of 3.0%. Total volume: 3,044 contracts.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if Iran holds a presidential election before January 1, 2027, based on reports from specified news agencies; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opened March 1, 2026, and will close early upon the event's occurrence or by January 1, 2027. Employees of the listed source agencies are prohibited from trading this contract.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | $0.16 | $0.85 | 17% |
Market Discussion
The market overwhelmingly predicts that Iran will not hold a presidential election before January 1, 2027, with the "Yes" contract currently priced at 17%. The primary argument for "No" is that the current Iranian president's term extends through 2028, making an early election highly improbable under normal circumstances. The single user comment reflects this sentiment, questioning the rationale for "Yes" bets and implying they would require drastic events like the president's death or a systemic overthrow.
4. What Triggered Iran's Presidential Election by June 30, 2024?
| Primary Election Trigger | Death of President Ebrahim Raisi (May 2024) [^] |
|---|---|
| Constitutional Election Mandate | Election within 50 days of president's death [^] |
| 2024 Election Date | June 28, 2024 [^] |
President Raisi's death directly necessitated Iran's snap election. The single most important factor determining the holding of the Iranian presidential election by June 30, 2024, was the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May 2024 [^]. This event triggered a constitutional mandate requiring a new election to be held within 50 days of the vacancy [^]. This constitutional provision created an imperative for a snap election, superseding the regular electoral cycle.
Iran successfully held its presidential election by the mandated deadline. Consequently, in compliance with this constitutional requirement, Iran organized and held its presidential election on June 28, 2024, confirming that an election was indeed held before the June 30 deadline [^]. While prediction markets may have shown fluctuating probabilities, such as a Polymarket prediction on June 17, 2024, indicating a low seven percent chance of an election by June 30 [^], the constitutional mandate following the president's death ultimately ensured the election proceeded as scheduled [^].
5. What is the likelihood of an Iranian presidential election by June 30?
| Probability of Iranian Presidential Election | 7% (prediction markets) [^] |
|---|---|
| Election Deadline | June 30, 2026 [^] |
| Prediction Market Platform | Polymarket [^] |
Prediction markets show a low probability for an Iranian presidential election. The likelihood of an Iranian presidential election occurring by June 30, 2026, has significantly decreased to 7% on prediction markets, specifically on Polymarket [^]. This low market probability suggests that participants currently consider an unscheduled presidential election by that date to be highly unlikely [^].
Hypothetical political developments in Iran influence election probability. The decrease in market probability is discussed in conjunction with reports outlining potential future political scenarios concerning Iranian leadership [^]. For instance, one report describes "Iran president Pezeshkian" participating in the treatment of "Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei" [^]. Another report, dated April 11, 2026, details "Iran's new supreme leader" as having "severe and disfiguring wounds" [^]. Such reports, which depict potential future instability regarding Iranian leadership, are presented as factors influencing the prediction market's low probability assessment for a presidential election by the June 30, 2026, deadline [^].
6. What is Iran's Constitutional Deadline for a Presidential Election?
| Constitutional Election Mandate | Within 50 days [^] |
|---|---|
| Market Probability by June 30 | 7% [^] |
| Relevant Constitutional Article | Article 131 [^] |
Iran's Constitution mandates a swift presidential election within 50 days. Article 131 of the Iranian Constitution specifically requires a new presidential election to be held within a maximum of 50 days if the President dies, resigns, becomes incapacitated, or is dismissed [^]. This constitutional obligation directly contrasts with the current market consensus, as Polymarket indicates only a 7% probability of Iran holding a presidential election by June 30 [^]. The legal imperative for a swift election is clearly defined, establishing a short timeframe for action.
Adhering to constitutional procedures is vital for political legitimacy. Upholding these constitutional procedures is essential for maintaining the legitimacy and stability of Iran's political system, particularly given the intricate regional context [^]. Although the government is described as unified [^], disregarding such a fundamental constitutional requirement could significantly undermine its domestic and international standing. The presence of potential candidates, such as Masoud Pezeshkian, further demonstrates the country's capability to organize an election if legally mandated [^]. Therefore, the constitutional directive presents a strong argument for an election to occur by the specified deadline, notwithstanding the current low market probability [^].
7. When Will Iran Hold Its Next Presidential Election?
| Election Mandate | Within 50 days of president's death [^] |
|---|---|
| Projected Election Date | Around July 8, 2024 [^] |
| Probability of Election by June 30 | 7% [^] |
Prediction markets show low expectations for a June 30 election. Participants in a market asking "Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?" currently assign only a 7% probability to this outcome [^]. This low probability aligns with the constitutional requirement, which mandates an election in early July, rather than June [^].
8. Did Iran Hold a Presidential Election by June 30, 2024?
| First Round Election Date | June 28, 2024 [^] |
|---|---|
| Prediction Market Status | Resolved affirmatively by June 30 deadline [^] |
| Election Trigger | Death of President Ebrahim Raisi [^] |
Iran recently held a snap presidential election, resolving a market question. A snap presidential election was conducted in Iran on June 28, 2024, with a second round concluding on July 5, 2024 [^]. This event confirmed the affirmative resolution of the prediction market "Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?" as the election took place before the June 30 deadline [^].
The election was constitutionally mandated following President Raisi's death. This necessity for an election arose from the death of President Ebrahim Raisi on May 19, 2024. The Iranian constitution stipulates that a new election must be held within 50 days under such circumstances [^]. Following the two rounds of voting, Masoud Pezeshkian ultimately won this snap election [^].
Despite the recent election, future political developments remain possible. Although the primary market question regarding an election by June 30 has been resolved by the June 28 vote, further political changes could still occur. Reports indicate that current President Masoud Pezeshkian may be considering resignation, which could potentially trigger another snap election and new political developments [^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: July 01, 2026
- Closes: January 01, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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