Who will win the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect the SNP to win the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- SNP projected to win 59 seats, remaining the largest party [1].
- Scottish Labour projected 33 seats, significantly behind the SNP [1].
- Scottish Conservatives "haemorrhaging support"; voters shifting to Labour, Reform UK [3, 6, 9].
- John Swinney's negative approval rating hinders SNP's overall support [8].
- Scottish voters prioritize healthcare and the economy above other issues [2].
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNP | 97.1% | 94.7% | Electoral Calculus projects the SNP as the largest party with 59 seats in 2026. |
| Greens | 1.0% | 1.1% | Current polling and historical performance suggest a limited chance of winning the most seats. |
| Reform UK | 1.0% | 1.0% | Reform UK consistently polls low in Scottish elections, indicating minimal electoral impact. |
| Labour | 0.1% | 0.4% | Electoral Calculus projects Labour to win 33 seats, significantly trailing the SNP. |
| Liberal Democrats | 1.1% | 1.1% | The Liberal Democrats consistently secure few seats, making an overall win unlikely. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Based on the chart data, this market exhibits a high and stable probability for a "YES" outcome. The price has consistently traded in a very narrow range between 94.0% and 99.0%. The overall trend is sideways, with a slight upward drift from its starting point of 94.0% to the current price of 97.1%. Given the lack of provided context, there are no specific news events or developments that can be attributed to the minor price fluctuations within this band. The price action appears to be driven by internal market dynamics rather than reactions to external stimuli.
The total volume of 3,137 contracts suggests a moderate level of activity over the market's lifetime. However, the sampled data points show zero volume, which could indicate that trading is infrequent or occurs in concentrated bursts. This pattern suggests a market with a strong consensus, where few participants are willing to bet against the prevailing sentiment, leading to periods of low liquidity. The key price levels are the floor at 94.0%, which has acted as a firm support level, and the peak at 99.0%, which represents historical resistance.
The market sentiment is overwhelmingly confident that the Scottish National Party will win the 2026 election. A price that has never dropped below 94.0% indicates a deeply entrenched belief in this outcome. The narrow trading range further reinforces this interpretation, suggesting that participants see the result as a near certainty and that it would take a significant, unexpected event to alter this conviction. The current price of 97.1% reflects a market that is simply waiting for the election to resolve, with little debate about the likely winner.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if the Scottish National Party (SNP) wins the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, based on official certification from the Scottish Parliament or Electoral Management Board for Scotland; otherwise, it resolves to No. The winning party is defined by having the most seats, with tie-breaking rules prioritizing formal government entry or higher vote share. The market closes upon official declaration of the winner, but no later than May 7, 2027, and remains open for up to two years if the election is postponed or results are annulled before the winner takes office.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNP | $0.98 | $0.03 | 97% |
| Conservatives | $0.01 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Liberal Democrats | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Greens | $0.04 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Reform UK | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Labour | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. What Percentage of SNP Voters Switch to Labour then Back SNP Again?
| Specific Voter Transition Data | Not explicitly detailed in available post-2024 polling crosstabs [^] |
|---|---|
| General 2026 Holyrood Intentions | Available from various sources [^] |
| SNP to Labour Switchers | Nearly half back Scottish independence [^] |
Precise three-stage voter transition data is not explicitly available. The research does not detail the specific percentage of voters who backed the SNP in the 2021 Scottish election, plan to vote Labour in the 2024 UK General Election, and subsequently indicate a return to the SNP for the 2026 Holyrood election. While the sources offer general insights into 2026 Holyrood voting intentions and analyses of opinion regarding the 2024 UK General Election in Scotland, the precise multi-stage voter movement requested is not presented [^].
Available data provides general insights, but not specific crosstabs. Although some research discusses broader voter switching patterns, such as the finding that nearly half of SNP to Labour switchers support Scottish independence [^], none of the provided sources contain a specific crosstab tracking the exact SNP 2021 Labour 2024 SNP 2026 voter movement with a definitive percentage. Polling firms typically release detailed crosstabs, but the particular multi-stage switching data for this query is not explicitly summarized within the accessible details of these available sources [^].
5. What are Scottish voters' top priorities in late 2025?
| NHS/Healthcare priority | 59% (YouGov, Dec 2025) [^] |
|---|---|
| Economy priority | 50% (YouGov, Dec 2025) [^] |
| Scottish Independence priority | 24% (YouGov, Dec 2025) [^] |
Scottish voters prioritize healthcare and the economy above other issues. YouGov polling from December 2025 revealed that 'The NHS/Healthcare' was considered the most important concern, with 59% of Scottish respondents identifying it as a top issue [^]. 'The Economy' followed closely, with 50% of voters also listing it among the most important issues facing Scotland [^].
Scottish Independence ranks significantly lower than health and economy. In the same December 2025 period, only 24% of voters identified 'Scottish Independence' as a top issue for the country [^]. This indicates a clear prioritization among Scottish voters for health services and economic matters over the question of independence, specifically within 12 months leading up to the 2026 Scottish Parliament election [^].
6. How Has the Scottish Conservative Vote Shifted Post-2021 Election?
| Plurality destination of 2021 Scottish Conservative vote | Reform UK [^] |
|---|---|
| Substantial proportion of 2021 Scottish Conservative vote | Labour [^] |
| Key marginal constituencies impacted | Aberdeenshire West and Eastwood [^] |
Post-2024 UK General Election polling reveals a major shift from Scottish Conservatives. Research indicates that the Scottish Conservatives are experiencing a significant loss of support, with a substantial portion of their 2021 voters now favoring other parties [^]. A plurality of these former Conservative voters are projected to move to Reform UK for the 2026 Holyrood election, while a "smaller but still substantial proportion" is expected to shift to Labour [^]. This trend aligns with broader patterns of declining Scottish Conservative support, with Reform UK largely absorbing votes on the regional list, and Scottish Labour absorbing votes in constituency contests [^].
Electoral shifts are particularly pronounced in key Scottish marginal constituencies. This redistribution is especially evident in crucial areas such as Aberdeenshire West and Eastwood, constituencies the Conservatives narrowly won in 2021 [^]. Current polling in these areas suggests that a significant segment of the 2021 Conservative vote is now anticipated to be divided between Labour and Reform UK [^]. These shifts have contributed to Reform UK appearing in second place on the regional list in some polls for the 2026 Holyrood election [^].
7. What Are the Latest Scottish Regional List Seat Projections?
| Labour Regional List Seats | 23 (Electoral Calculus, April 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| SNP Regional List Seats | 0 (Electoral Calculus, April 2026) [^] |
| Conservative Regional List Seats | 10 (Electoral Calculus, April 2026) [^] |
Electoral Calculus projects significant changes in Scottish regional list seat allocations. Its April 2026 Scotland MRP Poll forecasts Labour securing 23 regional list seats with 28% of the vote. In contrast, the Scottish National Party (SNP), despite a projected 29% of the regional list vote, is not expected to win any seats from it. The Conservatives are projected to gain 10 regional list seats with 14% of the vote, while the Green Party is anticipated to win 9 seats with 11%, and the Liberal Democrats 4 seats with 8% [^].
Constituency contests show Unionist tactical voting, but regional list patterns differ. Evidence suggests that while Labour has gained support from the Conservatives in constituency contests, implying a tactical shift among some Unionist voters, this dynamic is not observed for the regional list vote. Electoral Calculus attributes Labour's gains on the regional list to shifts from the Scottish National Party and the Greens, rather than a direct tactical movement of Conservative list votes towards Labour or the Liberal Democrats [^].
Ballot Box Scotland aggregates polling data but lacks specific seat breakdowns. It functions primarily as an aggregator and analyst of existing polling data for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, offering comprehensive polling analysis and a dedicated "Holyrood Hub." However, Ballot Box Scotland does not present its own specific 2026 regional list vote projection model with detailed seat breakdowns in the same manner as Electoral Calculus [^].
8. How Will UK Labour Win Affect Scottish Approval Ratings?
| Keir Starmer Scottish Approval | -20% to -25% (early 2024) [^] |
|---|---|
| John Swinney Scottish Approval | -15% to -20% (post-May 2024) [^] |
| Scottish Budget Dispute | £50 million reduction [^] |
Keir Starmer's Scottish approval likely to fluctuate post-election. Following a presumed Labour victory in the 2024 UK general election, which would see Keir Starmer become Prime Minister [^], his net approval rating within Scotland is anticipated to vary. Prior to the election, Starmer's net approval in Scotland was consistently negative, often falling between -20% and -25% in early 2024 [^]. A significant policy disagreement expected to act as a catalyst for shifts is Labour's proposed windfall tax on North Sea oil and gas companies. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has vocally opposed this measure, arguing it would adversely affect the Scottish economy and employment [^].
Scottish First Minister John Swinney faces approval challenges with Labour. John Swinney, who assumed the role of Scottish First Minister in May 2024 [^], will also see his net approval rating heavily influenced by his engagement with the new Labour government. His initial net approval shortly after taking office was negative, approximately -15% to -20% [^]. Policy disputes concerning the fiscal framework and the Scottish budget are another major catalyst for shifts. For instance, the SNP has already criticized a reported £50 million reduction in the Scottish budget, describing it as a 'Labour cash grab' [^]. Swinney's effectiveness in negotiating for Scottish interests will be crucial in shaping his approval ratings during this period.
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 07, 2027
- Closes: May 07, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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