Peru presidential election: first round second place?

Polling firms present conflicting views on candidate Rafael López Aliaga's regional support. According to a Datum Internacional poll conducted from April 1 to 4, 2026, Rafael López Aliaga leads the intention to vote in the South of Peru, including Arequipa and Cusco, with 24.3%. In this same region, he is followed by Rafael López Chau at 19.9% and Antauro Humala at 15.6%, while Keiko Fujimori registered 6.5% ^{[^]}. This Datum finding suggests a notable expansion of López Aliaga's voter base into an area not typically considered his primary stronghold. However, the "Tercer Simulacro Nacional y Encuesta de Intención de Voto" by Ipsos Perú for April 2026 presents a different scenario for the Southern region, showing Rafael López Chau leading with 26% of the vote intention. In Ipsos's results for the South, Keiko Fujimori follows with 11%, Rafael López Aliaga is at 10%, and Antauro Humala at 9% ^{[^]}. These divergent results highlight notable differences in polling outcomes between the two firms regarding López Aliaga's regional performance.

Keiko Fujimori demonstrates strong support in her traditional Northern stronghold. In the Northern region, an area traditionally considered a Fujimorista stronghold, Keiko Fujimori leads with 19% according to Ipsos, and 19.3% according to Datum (as reported by Infobae) ^{[^]}. Rafael López Aliaga registers 12% in the North according to Ipsos, and 13.1% according to Datum (as reported by Infobae) ^{[^]}. Beyond the North, Rafael López Chau appears as a significant contender, leading the Southern region in Ipsos's findings with 26% ^{[^]}.

Specific second-choice voter preferences from CPI are unavailable. The web research summarizing CPI (Compañía Peruana de Estudios de Mercado y Opinión Pública) polls from early 2026 does not provide specific details on second-choice preferences or voter preference crosstabs. This granular data is not available for supporters of lower-tier candidates such as George Forsyth, Carlos Álvarez, or Ricardo Belmont.

Available sources focus on first-round voting intentions. The provided sources primarily concentrate on reporting first-round voting intentions for the 2026 Peruvian general election, highlighting leading candidates and overall percentages ^{[^]}. While these reports discuss general voter sentiment, they lack the granular data needed to ascertain the second-choice preferences of specific candidate bases, especially for those with lower initial support. Therefore, specific data regarding the second-choice preferences of voters currently supporting George Forsyth, Carlos Álvarez, and Ricardo Belmont from CPI's crosstabs is not available based on the information provided.

Keiko Fujimori Higuchi recorded a 54% rejection rate in February 2026. According to the Instituto de Estudios Peruanos (IEP) national survey from February 2026, her 'anti-voto,' or rejection rate, was 54% ^{[^]}. This indicates that 54% of respondents stated they would not vote for her ^{[^]}. This figure was widely cited by various media outlets referencing the IEP survey results, with the IEP's own February 2026 opinion report serving as the primary source ^{[^]}.

Rafael López Aliaga's precise rejection rate is not available from these surveys. The provided research does not include a specific 'rejection rate' or 'anti-voto' figure for Rafael López Aliaga from the recent IEP national surveys, including those from March and April 2026 ^{[^]}. While later surveys address general candidate standings and voting intentions for various figures, the data primarily concentrates on Keiko Fujimori's rejection rate. Therefore, a direct comparison of precise rejection rates between Keiko Fujimori and Rafael López Aliaga cannot be made with the given sources.

The Alianza para el Progreso (APP) party leads campaign spending for Elecciones 2026. According to recent declarations to Peru's Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE), APP is the frontrunner in both private financing volume and overall expenditure, demonstrating a significant financial advantage over its competitors ^{[^]}. The official ONPE Clarity Portal serves as the primary source for these financial declarations, providing a centralized platform for tracking campaign finances ^{[^]}.

Campaign finance reporting shows significant transparency issues in Peru's electoral process. Only nine political tickets have consistently reported their campaign expenses to ONPE ^{[^]}. As of March 29, 2026, six presidential tickets had failed to submit their expenditure reports. Cumulatively, 33 political parties have spent more than 15 million soles on their campaigns ^{[^]}.

Media spending raises transparency concerns, despite public funding allocation by ONPE. While specific private media financing breakdowns are not individually detailed for the largest single party, campaign spending generally includes substantial media buys. ONPE has allocated economic resources for 39 political parties to contract propaganda within the publicly funded 'franja electoral' ^{[^]}, ^{[^]}. However, investigative reports, including one from 'El Comercio,' have suggested that some public funds intended for electoral propaganda may have been directed to media outlets linked to the parties' own members ^{[^]}. Despite these transparency issues surrounding media contracts, APP's overall leading position in campaign spending ^{[^]} suggests a considerable allocation towards comprehensive media outreach.

Hernando de Soto demonstrated the largest post-debate polling surge in 2021. During the 2021 Peruvian general election cycle, Hernando de Soto experienced the most significant and clearly documented positive polling bounce after his participation in the nationally televised JNE presidential debates, which occurred from March 29 to 31, 2021 ^{[^]}. An IEP public opinion study reported de Soto's vote intention surged from 6.9% to 9.8% in just one week, marking an increase of 2.9 percentage points ^{[^]}. This made him the candidate with the highest growth in the polls, according to IEP ^{[^]}. An Ipsos poll even placed him in second place in voter intention a week before the elections ^{[^]}, and one report indicated he won the second presidential debate based on a reader poll ^{[^]}.

The 2016 election cycle lacked a comparable, clear post-debate bounce. In contrast, the 2016 election cycle, which featured JNE presidential debates on April 3, 2016 ^{[^]}, did not present specific, quantified polling bounces of the same magnitude and clarity in the 7-10 day post-debate window as seen with de Soto in 2021. Although a report suggested Keiko Fujimori "wins debates, builds lead one week from Peru election" ^{[^]}, detailed polling data ^{[^]} showed she already held a substantial lead. While shifts occurred among other candidates, a pronounced and directly attributable immediate post-debate surge backed by specific percentage points is less evident. Therefore, Hernando de Soto's polling rise in 2021 stands out as the largest historically demonstrated positive polling bounce following the JNE debates.

Catalyst analysis unavailable.