Deportations in 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Above 200,000 deportations in FY2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- New policies target non-criminal aliens for increased enforcement.
- FY2026 ERO budget increased significantly to $9.4 billion.
- Deportation flights continue, reaching formerly non-cooperative nations.
- Q1 FY2026 saw a 25.89% rise in ICE removals.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 500,000 | 31.0% | 42.1% | New policies targeting non-criminal aliens and increased budgets suggest a substantial rise in deportations. |
| Above 400,000 | 74.0% | 80.6% | A significantly increased budget and continued operational flights point to higher enforcement and removals. |
| Above 600,000 | 16.0% | 24.6% | New policies targeting non-criminal aliens and a 25.89% Q1 FY2026 removals increase drive higher deportations. |
| Above 300,000 | 92.6% | 94.7% | Increased budgets for enforcement and new policies contribute to a substantial rise in FY2026 deportations. |
| Above 200,000 | 94.5% | 96.1% | Continued operational deportation flights and rising Q1 FY2026 removals support a higher volume of deportations. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has demonstrated a stable, sideways trend within a very high and narrow price range. The probability has remained between 91.0% and 94.5%, indicating a consistently strong market consensus that deportations will indeed occur in FY2026. The primary price movement observed was a single step-up from the 91.0% floor, where the market opened, to the current level of 94.5%.
The cause for this upward price shift is not apparent from the available information, as no specific news or external context was provided. Trading volume throughout the market's history is extremely low, with only 16 contracts traded in total. This minimal activity suggests that while sentiment is high, it is based on very little financial conviction and a small number of participants. The key price levels are well-defined, with clear support at 91.0% and resistance at the current high of 94.5%. The chart suggests that active traders see the outcome as a near certainty, but the lack of liquidity means this price may not be a robust reflection of broader market sentiment.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 400,000
📈 April 25, 2026: 11.0pp spike
Price increased from 71.0% to 82.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Above 600,000
📉 April 16, 2026: 80.8pp drop
Price decreased from 97.8% to 17.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if the number of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removals exceeds 500,000 in Fiscal Year 2026; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The outcome will be verified using official data from ICE once complete FY2026 data is available, with a projected payout by April 1, 2027. Trading is open from February 12, 2026, until January 1, 2027, and employees of Source Agencies are prohibited from trading this contract.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 200,000 | $0.99 | $0.05 | 95% |
| Above 300,000 | $0.99 | $0.07 | 93% |
| Above 400,000 | $0.81 | $0.24 | 74% |
| Above 500,000 | $0.31 | $0.70 | 31% |
| Above 600,000 | $0.21 | $0.84 | 16% |
Market Discussion
Traders generally anticipate a high number of deportations in FY2026, with market probabilities indicating a 74% chance of exceeding 400,000 removals. However, the limited discussion highlights skepticism, with one user pointing to past delays in official DHS deportation data publication as a potential challenge, while another expresses concern about vague payout conditions. There are no explicit arguments supporting the market's higher probabilities for increased deportations.
5. What New ICE Enforcement Policies Target Non-Criminal Aliens?
| Executive Order on Interior Enforcement | January 21, 2025 [^] |
|---|---|
| DHS Guidance on Enforcement Issued | January 23, 2025 [^] |
| Public Charge Rule Effective | February 27, 2025 [^] |
New administration quickly expanded ICE enforcement to include non-criminal aliens. Within the first 90 days of the 2025 administration, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) priorities significantly broadened to encompass non-criminal aliens. An Executive Order on Interior Enforcement: Protecting the American People, issued on January 21, 2025, mandated the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to fully enforce all U.S. immigration laws. This order specifically stated that enforcement would prioritize, but "not be limited to," aliens convicted of criminal offenses or those posing a public safety risk [^]. This directive explicitly superseded any conflicting prior policies. Further solidifying this shift, a Presidential Memorandum on Securing Our Borders and Restoring Immigration Enforcement on January 22, 2025, instructed DHS and the Attorney General to implement measures for the swift removal of unlawfully present aliens [^].
DHS guidance and public statements reinforced broadened enforcement categories. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) promptly issued guidance and public statements to reinforce these expanded enforcement parameters. On January 23, 2025, DHS's Guidance on Enforcement, Removal, and Parole Policies explicitly stated that "enforcement actions are no longer limited to specific categories of noncitizens, such as those with serious criminal convictions," affirming that "any noncitizen unlawfully present in the United States is subject to arrest and removal" [^]. This change was publicly emphasized by Secretary Noem on February 25, 2025, who announced that DHS would enforce all laws penalizing aliens illegally in the country, specifically mentioning those "without criminal convictions," marking a notable departure from previous administrations' narrower enforcement priorities [^], [^].
Expanded grounds and locations for immigration enforcement were established. Beyond policy directives, specific expanded grounds and locations for immigration enforcement were established. New Interim Guidance: Civil Immigration Enforcement Actions in or near Courthouses, issued by ICE on January 21, 2025, revoked previous restrictions and now permits officers to undertake civil immigration enforcement actions, including arrests for administrative violations, within courthouses [^]. Additionally, an Interim Final Rule: Aliens Inadmissible or Deportable on Public Charge Grounds was published, becoming effective February 27, 2025. This rule specified that the receipt of certain public benefits could render an alien inadmissible or deportable, thereby expanding the grounds for enforcement beyond criminal activity to include non-criminal aliens who have received specific government assistance [^].
6. How Does the FY2026 ERO Budget Compare to FY2019?
| FY2026 ERO Budget | $9.4 billion [^] |
|---|---|
| FY2026 Detention Beds | 41,500 beds [^] |
| FY2026 Transportation Funding | $1.0 billion [^] |
ICE's FY2026 budget for ERO totals $9.4 billion. The final appropriated budget for Immigration and Customs Enforcement's (ICE) Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) in the FY2026 Homeland Security Appropriations bill is $9.4 billion [^]. This comprehensive allocation includes $3.4 billion specifically designated for Custody Operations, which is intended to maintain an average daily detention capacity of 41,500 beds [^]. Additionally, $1.0 billion is allocated to Transportation and Removal Operations, covering the costs associated with moving individuals for detention and their subsequent removal [^].
Custody Operations funding increases while bed capacity decreases. A comparison with FY2019, which represented a peak year in the previous administration, reveals shifts in both funding and capacity for detention. In FY2019, Custody Operations received $3.1 billion to support a notably higher average daily detention capacity of 45,274 beds [^]. This indicates that while the FY2026 funding for Custody Operations is greater in absolute monetary terms ($3.4 billion), it supports a reduced number of detention beds (41,500) compared to FY2019 [^].
Transportation and Removal Operations funding significantly increased since FY2019. The FY2026 allocation of $1.0 billion for Transportation and Removal Operations marks a substantial increase when compared to the $725.6 million appropriated for the same operations in FY2019 [^].
7. Which Countries Received U.S. Deportation Flights by Mid-2025?
| Venezuela Deportations | At least two U.S. deportation flights by February 2025 [^] |
|---|---|
| Cuba Deportations | At least eleven flights by end of 2025, including 128 Cubans on one flight and 139 on another [^] |
| Nicaragua Deportations | Over 2,100 Nicaraguans on 19 U.S. flights during first half of 2025 [^] |
The United States increased deportations to formerly non-cooperative nations by mid-2025. By mid-2025, the U.S. had established active deportation flights to several countries, including Venezuela, which had previously been considered non-cooperative. For Venezuela, at least two flights carrying U.S. deportees were conducted by February 10, 2025, with these operations expected to continue, as reported even in March 2026 [^]. This indicates an ongoing effort to repatriate individuals to Venezuela.
Cuba and Nicaragua experienced significant deportation flights throughout 2025. Repatriation efforts to Cuba were notably operational by mid-2025, with at least eleven flights deporting hundreds of migrants to Havana throughout 2025 [^]. Specific instances included a flight in December 2025 that repatriated 128 Cubans and another flight carrying 139 Cuban migrants, demonstrating a consistent pattern of removals [^]. Similarly, Nicaragua experienced a significant volume of deportations, with over 2,100 Nicaraguans removed on 19 U.S. flights during just the first six months of 2025 [^].
No specific information was available regarding China's repatriation status. The available research, however, provided no specific information regarding repatriation agreements or the frequency of deportation flights to China by mid-2025.
8. What is the Current US Immigration Court Backlog and Resolution Efforts?
| Immigration Court Backlog | Over 3.5 million cases (October 1, 2025) [^] |
|---|---|
| FY2026 Cases Completed | 664,196 [^] |
| FY2026 New Cases Filed | 1,029,910 [^] |
Immigration courts faced a growing backlog at the start of FY2026. As of October 1, 2025, the beginning of Fiscal Year 2026, the Executive Office for Immigration Review (EOIR) courts were burdened with a substantial backlog of 3,556,066 cases awaiting a hearing before an Immigration Judge [^]. Throughout FY2026, Immigration Judges completed 664,196 cases. However, this progress was significantly outpaced by the influx of 1,029,910 new cases filed in US Immigration Courts during the same fiscal year [^]. This persistent imbalance caused the overall immigration court backlog to exceed 3.5 million cases by the end of FY2026 [^].
New directives in 2025 aimed to accelerate removal orders. In 2025, new measures were introduced to potentially accelerate the processing of removal orders and bypass existing court backlogs. Specifically, the Department of Justice published Federal Register Notices related to the Executive Office for Immigration Review [^]. A crucial development included the implementation guidance for a January 2025 Federal Register Notice, which designated certain non-citizens for expedited removal [^]. This procedure allows for the removal of individuals without the necessity of a hearing before an immigration judge, thereby circumventing the lengthy conventional immigration court processes and directly addressing the judicial backlog [^].
9. What Are the Latest U.S. Deportation Statistics for Q1 FY2026?
| Total Deportations Q1 FY2026 | 124,000 [^] |
|---|---|
| Monthly Average Deportations Q1 FY2026 | Approximately 41,333 [^] |
| Growth Rate Q1 FY2025 to Q1 FY2026 | 25.89% increase [^] |
ICE deportations significantly increased in the first quarter of FY2026. During the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2026, spanning October 2025 to December 2025, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) conducted a total of 124,000 removals [^]. This total figure translates to a monthly average of approximately 41,333 deportations (removals) for the specified period.
This represents a substantial growth compared to the previous year. When comparing this data to the same period in the prior year, the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2025 (October 2024 - December 2024) saw ICE record 98,500 removals [^]. The monthly average for Q1 FY2025 was approximately 32,833 removals. Consequently, the growth rate in removals from Q1 FY2025 to Q1 FY2026 stands at 25.89%.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: January 01, 2027
- Expiration: April 01, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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