How high will gas prices in Texas get this year?
1. Executive Verdict
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Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $3.00 | 100.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above $2.90 | 100.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above $2.80 | 100.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above $3.20 | 98.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above $3.40 | 85.0% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $2.80 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Above $2.90 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Above $3.00 | $1.00 | $0.02 | 100% |
| Above $3.20 | $0.98 | $0.10 | 98% |
| Above $3.40 | $0.85 | $0.25 | 85% |
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