Inflation in Feb 2026? (CPI YoY)
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.3% | 88.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above 2.2% | 97.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above 2.4% | 43.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above 2.6% | 7.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above 2.5% | 16.0% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.2% | $0.97 | $0.05 | 97% |
| Above 2.3% | $0.88 | $0.28 | 88% |
| Above 2.4% | $0.43 | $0.62 | 43% |
| Above 2.5% | $0.16 | $0.90 | 16% |
| Above 2.6% | $0.07 | $0.95 | 7% |
| Above 2.7% | $0.03 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Above 2.8% | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Above 3.1% | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Above 2.9% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 3.0% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
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