1. Executive Verdict

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Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
At least 3% 73.0% — Insufficient data
At least 3.5% 39.0% — Insufficient data
At least 4% 25.0% — Insufficient data
At least 4.5% 18.0% — Insufficient data
At least 5% 9.0% — Insufficient data

2. Market Data

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Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Implied probability
At least 3% $0.73 $0.28 73%
At least 3.5% $0.39 $0.63 39%
At least 4% $0.25 $0.76 25%
At least 4.5% $0.18 $0.86 18%
At least 5% $0.09 $0.92 9%