CPI year-over-year in May 2026?
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2.8% | 46.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Exactly 2.9% | 51.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Exactly 2.1% | 95.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Exactly 3.0% | 38.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Exactly 2.0% | 90.0% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2.2% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 100% |
| Exactly 3.1% | $0.99 | $1.00 | 99% |
| Exactly 2.4% | $0.98 | $1.00 | 98% |
| Exactly 2.3% | $0.97 | $1.00 | 97% |
| Exactly 2.1% | $0.95 | $1.00 | 95% |
| Exactly 2.0% | $0.90 | $1.00 | 90% |
| Exactly 3.5% | $0.75 | $1.00 | 75% |
| Exactly 3.2% | $0.66 | $0.96 | 66% |
| Exactly 2.6% | $0.55 | $0.96 | 55% |
| Exactly 2.9% | $0.51 | $0.99 | 51% |
| Exactly 3.4% | $0.49 | $1.00 | 49% |
| Exactly 2.8% | $0.46 | $0.85 | 46% |
| Exactly 2.5% | $0.39 | $0.74 | 39% |
| Exactly 3.0% | $0.38 | $0.98 | 38% |
| Exactly 3.3% | $0.34 | $1.00 | 34% |
| Exactly 2.7% | $0.17 | $0.97 | 17% |
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