CPI year-over-year in Feb 2026?
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3.3% | 1.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Exactly 2.3% | 18.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Exactly 2.2% | 9.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Exactly 2.4% | 42.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Exactly 3.4% | 2.0% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2.4% | $0.42 | $0.64 | 42% |
| Exactly 2.5% | $0.29 | $0.74 | 29% |
| Exactly 2.3% | $0.18 | $0.86 | 18% |
| Exactly 2.6% | $0.14 | $0.95 | 14% |
| Exactly 2.2% | $0.09 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Exactly 2.7% | $0.06 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Exactly 2.8% | $0.03 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Exactly 3.4% | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Exactly 2.0% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Exactly 2.1% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Exactly 2.9% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Exactly 3.0% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Exactly 3.1% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Exactly 3.2% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Exactly 3.3% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Exactly 3.5% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
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