CPI year-over-year in Apr 2026?
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3.3% | 24.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Exactly 3.4% | 21.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Exactly 3.2% | 6.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Exactly 2.1% | 16.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Exactly 3.5% | 28.0% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2.8% | $0.50 | $0.94 | 50% |
| Exactly 3.0% | $0.45 | $0.98 | 45% |
| Exactly 2.9% | $0.44 | $0.98 | 44% |
| Exactly 2.6% | $0.40 | $0.95 | 40% |
| Exactly 2.7% | $0.40 | $0.90 | 40% |
| Exactly 2.5% | $0.33 | $0.98 | 33% |
| Exactly 2.4% | $0.28 | $1.00 | 28% |
| Exactly 3.5% | $0.28 | $1.00 | 28% |
| Exactly 3.1% | $0.27 | $1.00 | 27% |
| Exactly 3.3% | $0.24 | $1.00 | 24% |
| Exactly 2.3% | $0.21 | $1.00 | 21% |
| Exactly 3.4% | $0.21 | $0.97 | 21% |
| Exactly 2.2% | $0.18 | $1.00 | 18% |
| Exactly 2.0% | $0.17 | $1.00 | 17% |
| Exactly 2.1% | $0.16 | $1.00 | 16% |
| Exactly 3.2% | $0.06 | $1.00 | 6% |
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