CPI month-over-month in Apr 2026?
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 0.6% | 40.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Exactly 0.2% | 36.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Exactly -0.2% | 25.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Exactly 0.3% | 70.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Exactly 0.4% | 69.0% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 0.3% | $0.70 | $0.95 | 70% |
| Exactly 0.4% | $0.69 | $0.95 | 69% |
| Exactly 0.5% | $0.50 | $0.96 | 50% |
| Exactly 0.1% | $0.40 | $1.00 | 40% |
| Exactly 0.6% | $0.40 | $1.00 | 40% |
| Exactly 0.2% | $0.36 | $0.76 | 36% |
| Exactly 0.0% | $0.35 | $1.00 | 35% |
| Exactly -0.1% | $0.25 | $1.00 | 25% |
| Exactly -0.2% | $0.25 | $1.00 | 25% |
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