CPI in Feb 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that CPI in Feb 2026 will be Above -0.1%, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- OER forecasts for late 2025 show significant divergence.
- AI presents immediate inflationary pressures with future deflationary potential.
- Global crude oil markets project exceptional tightness for Winter 2025-2026.
- Late 2025 labor union renegotiations could impact early 2026 CPI.
- Early 2026 inflation outlook shows significant divergence across indicators.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | — | — | Insufficient data |
Current Context
The January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on February 13, 2026, significantly influenced recent discussions around future inflation [^] . The US annual inflation rate slowed to 2.4% in January 2026, its lowest level since May 2025, falling below forecasts of 2.5% [^]. Annual core inflation, excluding food and energy, also eased to 2.5%, aligning with expectations and marking its lowest since March 2021 [^]. Energy prices saw a notable 0.1% fall after a 2.3% rise in December 2025, though geopolitical tensions and cold winter weather did push up oil and natural gas prices, leading some to slightly increase Euro area inflation forecasts [^]. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global growth at 3.3% for 2026, expecting global inflation to fall but US inflation to return to target more gradually [^]. J.P. Morgan Global Research anticipates global core inflation to stabilize at 2.8% in 2026, but with disparate outcomes: inflation is projected to accelerate in the U.S. to 3.2% and moderate in Europe to 1.9% [^]. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's January 2026 FOMC meeting, released around February 18, 2026, revealed a split among policymakers regarding future interest rate decisions, with some open to rate hikes if inflation remains elevated and others favoring cuts if it recedes as expected; the emerging implications of artificial intelligence (AI) were also debated [^]. Global share markets generally rose on February 20, 2026, though concerns about potential US strikes on Iran pushed oil prices higher [^].
Experts hold varied views on inflation's trajectory and Fed policy adjustments in the coming months. MUFG, on February 12, 2026, advised caution on trading the CPI release, noting market "lack of conviction" and suggesting that rate cuts are currently underpriced [^]. PNC Economics Research observed January CPI coming in below expectations and projected the Fed to maintain current rates through the first half of 2026, with two cuts in the latter half, stressing the need for housing inflation to resume a downward trend for core CPI to meet the Fed's 2% target [^]. Forbes, on February 21, 2026, suggested US inflation is likely to continue falling in 2026 due to easing energy prices, a cooling labor market, and mathematical base effects, emphasizing the "shelter lag" in official CPI housing data [^]. They cited the Peterson Institute for International Economics' estimate that tariffs could add 0.50% to headline inflation by mid-2026 [^]. RBC Economics expressed concern that inflation might remain closer to 3% throughout 2026, citing a tight labor market, robust consumer spending, tariff pass-through, and lagged housing inflation measures, also warning that CPI's adjusted weights could create a "false hope" compared to the Fed's preferred PCE measure [^]. KPMG, on February 5, 2026, indicated that central banks are concluding their rate-cutting cycles, expecting global growth to remain at 3.4% and inflation to return to central bank targets [^]. Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran voiced concerns on February 18, 2026, that current tight monetary policy risks slowing US growth. The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its key interest rate at 2% on February 5, 2026, with President Christine Lagarde stating that a single cool inflation print does not alter the forecast of inflation stabilizing near 2% in the medium term [^]. Key data points being closely watched include headline and core CPI, component-specific inflation (especially shelter/housing, energy, and food), base effects, the Federal Funds Rate, and wage growth and labor market indicators [^].
Future inflation remains uncertain, influenced by several critical factors and upcoming events. The US February 2026 CPI data release is scheduled for Wednesday, March 11, 2026, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time [^]. Other upcoming events include the European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy Meeting on March 19, 2026, and Australia's January inflation data release on Wednesday, February 25, 2026 [^]. Common questions revolve around the sustainability of the recent inflation deceleration, the Federal Reserve's next move regarding interest rates (cuts, hold, or potential hikes) [^], and the persistent discrepancy in how Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER) is measured in the CPI, potentially distorting the true picture of housing costs [^]. Geopolitical risks, particularly regarding a potential US strike on Iran, are a concern due to their potential to drive up energy prices [^]. Other factors include the potential for tariffs to pass through to consumer prices [^], the delicate balance of labor market dynamics and wage growth against the risk of an economic slowdown, the unfolding impact of artificial intelligence on productivity and inflation [^], and the widening divergence in inflation and growth trajectories between major economies like the US and Europe [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has experienced a significant long-term downward trend, with the implied probability dropping from an initial 60.0% to the current 12.0%. The overall decline was marked by extreme volatility in early February 2026, leading up to the January CPI data release. The market saw dramatic swings, including a 59.0 percentage point drop on February 12, as traders aggressively priced in expectations of a lower-than-forecast inflation report. This move was a direct anticipation of the news scheduled for the following day. When the official CPI data was released on February 13, showing inflation slowing to 2.4%, the market price corrected upwards with a 17.0 percentage point spike. This suggests the preceding drop had overshot, and the actual data, while confirming a cooling trend, was not as low as the most bearish traders had anticipated, leading to a partial rebound.
The total volume of 24,841 contracts indicates robust participation and conviction behind the price action, especially during the volatile period surrounding the CPI release. The chart has established key price levels, with $0.60 acting as a significant resistance point or initial ceiling of expectations in early February, while $0.01 served as a temporary support floor during the pre-announcement sell-off. The current price of $0.12 appears to be forming a new, lower consolidation range post-event. Ultimately, the chart's price action signals a major shift in market sentiment. An initially optimistic outlook has transformed into a strong consensus that the event is unlikely to occur, a belief that was catalyzed and confirmed by the recent economic data showing a clear deceleration in consumer price inflation.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 0.2%
📉 February 19, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 58.0% to 49.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point drop in the "CPI in Feb 2026 [^]? Above 0.2%" prediction market on February 19, 2026, was the release and subsequent analysis of the January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on February 13, 2026 [^]. The report indicated that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by a modest 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, which was lower than the 0.3 percent forecast by many analysts [^]. This better-than-expected inflation data for January, coupled with weak US Retail Sales data on February 15, 2026, and the Federal Reserve's January FOMC minutes (released Feb 16, 2026) hinting at potential future rate cuts if inflation declined, likely led to a downward revision of inflation expectations for February 2026 [^]. Social media activity did not appear to be the primary driver [^]. While there was a mention of a post by Mohamed El-Erian on X on February 13, 2026, highlighting persistent inflation, this stance would likely have supported the "Above 0.2%" outcome, not caused a significant drop [^]. Therefore, traditional news and economic data releases were the primary drivers of this market movement [^].
📉 February 13, 2026: 36.0pp drop
Price decreased from 91.0% to 55.0%
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📉 February 11, 2026: 24.0pp drop
Price decreased from 76.0% to 52.0%
What happened: The 24.0 percentage point drop in the "CPI in Feb 2026 [^]? Above 0.2%" prediction market on February 11, 2026, was primarily driven by the release of the January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on that same day [^]. The January CPI data showed a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, which was below broader market expectations and indicated a moderation in inflation [^]. This official economic data release, which directly impacted expectations for subsequent inflation figures, coincided with the price movement and served as a strong signal to prediction market participants that the likelihood of February's CPI rising above 0.2% had diminished [^]. This makes traditional news and official data releases the primary driver [^].
📈 February 09, 2026: 70.0pp spike
Price increased from 5.0% to 75.0%
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Outcome: Above 0.3%
📉 February 12, 2026: 59.0pp drop
Price decreased from 60.0% to 1.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 59.0 percentage point drop in the "CPI in Feb 2026 [^]? Above 0.3%" prediction market on February 12, 2026, was the market's strong anticipation of a lower-than-expected January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which was scheduled for release the following day, February 13, 2026 [^]. On February 12, economists and traders were discussing expectations for the January CPI to rise around 0.3% month-over-month, and the actual release on February 13 showed headline CPI at 0.2% and core CPI at 0.3%, with the headline figure notably below forecasts, leading to a "cooling of price pressures" narrative [^]. This pre-release positioning significantly reduced the perceived probability of the subsequent February CPI exceeding 0.3% [^]. Social media activity did not appear to be the primary driver; while discussions about inflation and the economy by figures like Donald Trump and Elon Musk occurred around this period, none directly linked to a specific, imminent shift in US CPI expectations for February 2026 on that exact date [^]. The market movement coincided with heightened anticipation and pre-positioning ahead of a major economic data release, rather than a specific social media narrative [^]. Social media was mostly noise in this context [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The provided page content consists only of the title "CPI in February? Odds & Predictions 2026". It does not contain information regarding the specific triggers for a YES or NO resolution. Therefore, details on key dates, deadlines, or any special settlement conditions cannot be extracted from the given text.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What Are the Key Divergences in OER Forecasts for 2025 CPI?
| Zillow OER Projection | 4.2% YoY (Q4 2025) [^] |
|---|---|
| Federal Reserve OER Forecast | 3.2% (2025) [^] |
| CBO OER Forecast | 2.8% (2025) [^] |
Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER) forecasts for Q4 2025 show significant divergence. High-frequency indicators, such as the Zillow Observed Rent Index, project a 4.2% year-over-year growth rate for Q4 2025. In contrast, official forecasts from the Federal Reserve anticipate 3.2% for 2025 [^], while the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects an even lower 2.8% for 2025 [^]. This creates a notable 140-basis-point gap between the Zillow and CBO projections.
Methodological differences and temporal lags explain this divergence. The Zillow index captures real-time asking rents for new leases, functioning as a leading indicator of current market-clearing prices. Conversely, official Consumer Price Index (CPI) OER measures rely on slower-moving, survey-based data. This official data reflects average prices across all renters and homeowners, introducing a significant 9-12 month lag in reflecting current market dynamics.
This discrepancy has material implications for future inflation. Should the high-frequency Zillow data prove more accurate, the February 2026 CPI reading, which reports on January 2026 data, could be approximately 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points higher than currently anticipated by markets that rely on official sector forecasts. This suggests a potential underestimation of future CPI prints and could significantly alter probabilities in prediction markets.
6. What is AI's Net Inflationary Impact on the Economy for H1 2026?
| Global Data Center Electricity | Projected to more than double from 415 TWh (2024) to 945 TWh (2030) [^] |
|---|---|
| IMF Global Inflation Forecast | 4.2% (2025), 3.6% (2026) [^] |
| Federal Reserve PCE Inflation | 3.0% (2025), 2.6% (2026) [^] |
Artificial Intelligence introduces immediate inflationary pressures alongside future productivity gains. AI is set to generate deflationary productivity gains by enhancing efficiency, automation, and optimization across manufacturing, services, and logistics. However, these benefits are expected to diffuse slowly through the broader economy [^]. Conversely, the inflationary forces from AI are immediate and substantial. Global data center electricity consumption is projected to more than double by 2030 due to AI workloads [^], and U.S. electricity use is anticipated to accelerate, largely driven by data center expansion [^]. This surge in energy demand, combined with massive capital expenditure on semiconductors and data center construction, creates significant cost-push pressures on the economy, impacting energy prices and raw material costs [^].
Inflationary pressures from AI are projected to dominate in H1 2026. This dominance is primarily attributed to a timing mismatch where cost-side pressures are front-loaded and immediately observable, while productivity benefits accrue over a longer period. Current inflation forecasts from the IMF indicate 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026 [^], while the Federal Reserve projects PCE at 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026 [^]. These forecasts suggest a persistent inflationary environment, indicating that AI's build-out will likely slow the pace of disinflation and could result in higher-than-expected CPI prints in the near term [^].
7. What are the Key Global Energy Market Forecasts for Winter 2025-2026?
| OPEC Crude Oil Balance (Winter 2025-26) | -0.3 mb/d deficit [^] |
|---|---|
| US Nat Gas Inventories (End-March 2026) | 1,750 Bcf [^] |
| Geopolitical Risk Premium (Moderate Escalation) | $10-$15/bbl additional [^] |
The global crude oil market for Winter 2025-2026 is projected to be exceptionally tight, ranging from a slight deficit to a marginal surplus, according to major energy outlooks [^] . The 2025 OPEC World Oil Outlook forecasts a deficit of 0.3 million barrels per day (mb/d), attributing this to robust demand and proactive supply management [^]. In contrast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook projects a slight surplus of 0.1 mb/d, based on expectations of higher non-OPEC production growth and a more conservative global demand outlook [^]. This 0.4 mb/d difference underscores the market's sensitivity to underlying assumptions, although both agencies concur on the tightness of the market environment [^].
Natural gas supplies are tight, compounded by crude oil geopolitical risks. The U.S. natural gas market is also anticipated to be fundamentally tight, with working inventories projected to conclude the withdrawal season in March 2026 at 1,750 billion cubic feet (Bcf), which is approximately 5% below the five-year average [^]. This low buffer indicates increased susceptibility to price volatility, particularly if driven by adverse weather conditions or supply disruptions [^]. A significant upside price risk for crude oil specifically arises from geopolitical tensions, notably potential escalations in U.S.-Iran relations [^]. A moderate escalation scenario, such as intensified sanctions enforcement, is modeled to introduce an additional $10-$15 per barrel premium to crude prices [^].
8. How Will Late 2025 Labor Deals Affect February 2026 CPI?
| FKTU Wage Demand | 7.3% for 2025 [^] |
|---|---|
| US Construction Wage Increase | 4.7% [^] |
| Peak WGT Growth (Historic) | Over 7.0% (late 2022-early 2023) [^] |
Major U.S. labor union contracts scheduled for renegotiation in late 2025, particularly in logistics, transportation, and port operations, present a significant upside risk to the February 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI). Unions are anticipated to demand wage increases in the 6% to 10% range, driven by the need to recover real wage losses incurred during the recent inflationary period. For context, specific international demands have already reached 7.3% [^], while U.S. construction settlements have averaged 4.7% [^].
These anticipated demands notably deviate from the hypothetical Q4 2025 Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker (WGT) of 4.5% [^] . For instance, a 7.3% demand would represent a 2.8 percentage point absolute deviation and a 62.2% percentage deviation above this benchmark [^]. Such elevated settlements in critical sectors would directly translate into higher transportation and supply chain costs, impacting a broad range of goods and services. These increased costs are unlikely to be easily absorbed by businesses and would likely be passed through to consumers.
The February 2026 CPI print is expected to be one of the first comprehensive readings reflecting these new labor agreements. A high settlement scenario, characterized by 6-8% wage growth, could push the CPI significantly above consensus forecasts. This outcome would create a mispricing opportunity in prediction markets and would likely prompt a hawkish Federal Reserve response. Moreover, this scenario heightens the risk of a wage-price spiral, as backward-looking demands meet forward-looking pricing strategies [^].
9. What Conflicting Inflation Signals Are Shaping Early 2026?
| December 2025 PPI | 2.1% year-over-year [^] |
|---|---|
| January 2026 CPI Nowcast | 3.4% headline CPI (Cleveland Fed) [^] |
| February 2026 Core CPI Annualized | 2.7% (Iowa Electronic Markets) [^] |
Inflation outlook for early 2026 shows significant indicator divergence. The December 2025 Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand increased 2.1% year-over-year, which extrapolates to a Consumer Price Index (CPI) expectation of approximately 2.6%, signaling normalizing goods inflation. This contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's preliminary nowcast for January 2026 headline CPI, which registered an elevated 3.4%, indicating a potential re-acceleration of consumer inflation.
Market predictions and official reports suggest varied inflation expectations. The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) forecast for February 2026 Core CPI implies an annualized inflation rate of approximately 2.7%. This market sentiment suggests a belief that any January inflation spike may be transitory, positioning itself against the higher Cleveland Fed nowcast. Additionally, official data from Altair Advisers reported January CPI at an annualized 2.4% with core CPI at 2.5% [^], anchoring expectations with evidence of more resilient disinflationary trends. Major institutions like J.P. Morgan and RBC Economics, however, anticipate inflation picking up to around 3% or slightly higher in early 2026 and remaining near 3% by year-end, citing factors such as tariff impacts, a tight labor market, and robust consumer spending [^].
Conflicting signals create policy uncertainty, requiring critical data review. The notable 80 basis point disparity between the extrapolated PPI and the Cleveland Fed's nowcast underscores a macroeconomic conflict between goods disinflation and persistent services inflation. The IEM market's forecast, being closer to the PPI, actively anticipates that the higher January nowcast will not persist, possibly due to transitory factors or preemptive market reactions to potential Federal Reserve actions. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a data-dependent stance, with the forthcoming official January and February CPI reports being crucial for resolving this ambiguity and likely influencing market volatility.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis not available.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 10, 2026
- Closes: March 11, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis not available.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series
Outcomes: 26 resolved YES, 24 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXCPI-26JAN-T0.4: NO (Feb 13, 2026)
- KXCPI-26JAN-T0.3: NO (Feb 13, 2026)
- KXCPI-26JAN-T0.2: NO (Feb 13, 2026)
- KXCPI-26JAN-T0.1: YES (Feb 13, 2026)
- KXCPI-26JAN-T-0.1: YES (Feb 13, 2026)
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