CPI in Feb 2026?
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.3% | 12.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above 0.2% | 49.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above 0.1% | 90.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above 0.4% | 4.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Above 0.0% | 1.0% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.1% | $1.00 | $0.04 | 100% |
| Above 0.0% | $1.00 | $0.06 | 100% |
| Above 0.1% | $0.90 | $0.11 | 90% |
| Above 0.2% | $0.49 | $0.52 | 49% |
| Above 0.3% | $0.12 | $0.89 | 12% |
| Above 0.4% | $0.04 | $1.00 | 4% |
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