CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026?
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2.3% | 12.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Exactly 3.5% | 14.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Exactly 3.6% | 11.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Exactly 2.2% | 11.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Exactly 3.7% | 12.0% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2.8% | $0.57 | $0.91 | 57% |
| Exactly 2.5% | $0.56 | $0.92 | 56% |
| Exactly 2.7% | $0.56 | $0.92 | 56% |
| Exactly 2.6% | $0.54 | $0.92 | 54% |
| Exactly 2.9% | $0.54 | $0.93 | 54% |
| Exactly 2.4% | $0.30 | $0.99 | 30% |
| Exactly 3.0% | $0.25 | $0.99 | 25% |
| Exactly 3.1% | $0.20 | $0.99 | 20% |
| Exactly 3.3% | $0.17 | $0.98 | 17% |
| Exactly 3.5% | $0.14 | $0.98 | 14% |
| Exactly 2.3% | $0.12 | $0.95 | 12% |
| Exactly 3.7% | $0.12 | $0.97 | 12% |
| Exactly 2.2% | $0.11 | $0.95 | 11% |
| Exactly 3.6% | $0.11 | $0.97 | 11% |
| Exactly 3.4% | $0.10 | $0.98 | 10% |
| Exactly 3.2% | $0.09 | $0.96 | 9% |
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