CPI core month-over-month in May 2026?
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly -0.1% | 7.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Exactly -0.2% | 9.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Exactly 0.3% | 29.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Exactly 0.0% | 10.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Exactly 0.5% | 8.0% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 0.3% | $0.29 | $0.82 | 29% |
| Exactly 0.1% | $0.13 | $0.90 | 13% |
| Exactly 0.4% | $0.13 | $0.96 | 13% |
| Exactly 0.0% | $0.10 | $0.97 | 10% |
| Exactly -0.2% | $0.09 | $0.95 | 9% |
| Exactly 0.5% | $0.08 | $1.00 | 8% |
| Exactly -0.1% | $0.07 | $0.94 | 7% |
| Exactly 0.2% | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
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