Short Answer

The model sees potential mispricing for the most likely outcome, the People's Bank of China maintaining its current rate at the February 2026 meeting, with a model probability of 77.8% versus the market's 96.5%, suggesting the market may be overestimating the likelihood of no change.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Internal server errors prevented retrieval of key research findings.
  • No specific catalyst analysis is available for the PBOC decision.
  • Current market participants assign a very high 96.5% probability.
  • Octagon's model projects a 77.8% probability for the PBOC action.
  • Recent market activity shows significant price spikes and shifts.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Maintain current rate 1.0% 77.8% The PBOC will likely maintain current rates, reflecting a stable economic outlook for China.
Cut 1-10 basis points 50.0% 19.8% Persistent economic headwinds or deflationary pressures could necessitate a small rate cut.
Cut more than 10bp 2.0% 0.8% Only a severe economic crisis or sharp downturn would prompt an aggressive rate reduction.
Hike 1-10 basis points 2.0% 0.8% Significant inflationary pressures or an overheating economy would necessitate a modest rate hike.
Hike more than 10bp 2.0% 0.8% Only extreme inflationary pressures or severe economic overheating would trigger an aggressive rate hike.

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has exhibited significant volatility despite an overall upward trend. The contract, which started trading at a 70.0% probability, currently stands at 93.0%, indicating a strengthening conviction in the "YES" outcome over time. However, the path has been turbulent, marked by several sharp price swings in the final month of trading. Notably, the market saw a 32.0 percentage point drop on January 28 and a 29.0 point drop on February 10, suggesting periods of significant doubt. These were countered by aggressive spikes, including a 26.0 point jump on February 12 and a final 12.0 point surge to a near-certain 99.0% on February 20. As no specific news or external context has been provided, the direct causes for these dramatic shifts in sentiment cannot be determined from the price data alone.
The total traded volume of 35,423 contracts suggests robust participation and significant capital at stake, lending credibility to the price action as a measure of collective belief. The price chart indicates several key psychological levels. The market found a floor in the mid-40s, while the 60.0% and 80.0% levels appear to have acted as pivotal points for the sharp reversals seen in February. The peak of 99.0% serves as the ultimate resistance, representing maximum market certainty. Overall, despite the periods of deep uncertainty that drove the price down to the 50-60% range, the market has consistently recovered. The current high price of 93.0% reflects a strong consensus that the "YES" outcome is highly probable as the resolution date nears, with traders having decisively bought back into the position following the earlier dips.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Cut 1-10 basis points

📈 February 22, 2026: 41.0pp spike

Price increased from 8.0% to 49.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

📉 February 15, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 17.0% to 8.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

Outcome: Maintain current rate

📈 February 20, 2026: 12.0pp spike

Price increased from 87.0% to 99.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

📈 February 12, 2026: 26.0pp spike

Price increased from 57.0% to 83.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

📉 February 10, 2026: 29.0pp drop

Price decreased from 89.0% to 60.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

4. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

The provided page content does not contain the specific contract rules necessary to determine the exact triggers for YES or NO resolution, key dates/deadlines, or any special settlement conditions. The page only states the market topic: "What will the People's Bank of China do at the February 2026 meeting?"

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Implied probability
Maintain current rate $1.00 $0.07 100%
Cut 1-10 basis points $0.50 $1.00 50%
Cut more than 10bp $0.02 $1.00 2%
Hike 1-10 basis points $0.02 $1.00 2%
Hike more than 10bp $0.02 $1.00 2%

Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

5. Why Was Research Unsuccessful for This Query?

Research OutcomeFailed
Error DescriptionInternal Server Error
Data AvailabilityNone
An internal server error prevented retrieval of research findings. During the attempt to retrieve research findings for the specified query, the system encountered an 'Internal Server Error'. This technical issue directly prevented any data from being accessed or processed from the intended source.
No specific policy data or insights could be extracted. As a direct consequence of the server error, no specific data points, key metrics, or detailed insights could be extracted or summarized from the research. Therefore, information regarding the official policy priority balance between 'economic growth,' 'price stability,' and 'financial risk prevention,' as articulated in the public readout of the December 2025 Central Economic Work Conference, remains unavailable.
Resolution of the server error is required for data retrieval. To acquire the desired research findings, it is necessary to address and resolve the underlying internal server error. This action would enable a successful data retrieval process.

6. Why Were Research Findings Not Available Due to an Error?

Research OutcomeInternal Server Error (System Issue)
Data AvailabilityNone (No Findings)
Information ProcessedZero (Research Failed)
During the research process, an internal server error occurred, which prevented the retrieval of any specific findings or data points. The system was unable to complete the request to gather information pertinent to the inquiry concerning the forward-implied interest rate differential between the 1-year Chinese government bond and the 1-year US Treasury bond for February 2026, and its comparison to previous PBOC easing cycles.
No content is available for summarization or analysis. As a direct consequence, there is a complete lack of content to summarize or analyze in this response. This limitation means no relevant data points, a detailed summary, or inline citations can be provided to address the research question.
The original research question remains unanswered due to technical issues. The primary research action ultimately failed to yield any usable results, leaving the original question unresolved due to this technical incident.

7. Research Failed: Internal Server Error Encountered?

Research StatusFailed
Error TypeInternal Server Error
Data AvailabilityNot Available
An internal server error halted the retrieval of requested research findings. During the attempt to address the specific query regarding the year-over-year growth rate of outstanding medium- and long-term corporate loans in PBOC's Q4 2025 TSF data, an unrecoverable system issue was encountered. This error prevented the processing and retrieval of any relevant data.
Consequently, no specific data or detailed insights can be provided. The malfunction prevented the system from generating any data points, summaries, or comprehensive insights. The research process was interrupted by an unrecoverable error, making it impossible to produce the requested content.

8. Why Were No Research Findings Available for This Topic?

Research OutcomeFailed: Internal Server Error
Data Extraction StatusNo data could be extracted
Recommended ActionRetrial of research query
The research query could not be completed due to a technical error. An internal server error was encountered during the research process, which prevented the system from accessing or processing any relevant information for the question regarding state-affiliated financial media and government advisor focus on 'price-based' versus 'quantity-based' tools in the lead-up to the February 2026 meeting.
Consequently, no specific findings or data were generated for this query. The internal server error meant that no specific findings, data points, or summarized content could be extracted or produced. It is therefore recommended to re-attempt the research query at a later time, as this technical issue is likely transient and may resolve itself.

9. Why Was Research Data Unavailable for This Query?

Research OutcomeFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNone
Action RequiredRetrying Research
The research process encountered a critical technical error, preventing analysis. The investigation into the professional consensus of the 15-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), based on their individual academic papers, research notes, and public speeches published between October 2025 and January 2026, was halted by an internal server error. This technical issue prevented the successful retrieval and processing of any relevant information for the query.
No findings or analysis could be generated due to the error. This server malfunction indicates a complete failure in accessing or computing the necessary data to answer the posed question. Consequently, no findings, data points, detailed analysis, or insights could be produced or summarized based on the given research request at this time.

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Catalyst analysis not available.

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: March 03, 2026
  • Closes: February 24, 2026

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Catalyst analysis not available.

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 15 markets in this series

Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 12 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXCBDECISIONCHINA-26JAN19-HOLD: YES (Jan 20, 2026)
  • KXCBDECISIONCHINA-26JAN19-H10P: NO (Jan 20, 2026)
  • KXCBDECISIONCHINA-26JAN19-H10: NO (Jan 20, 2026)
  • KXCBDECISIONCHINA-26JAN19-C10P: NO (Jan 20, 2026)
  • KXCBDECISIONCHINA-26JAN19-C10: NO (Jan 20, 2026)