Number of rate cuts in 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect exactly 2 rate cuts in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Internal server errors blocked completion of overall research analysis.
- FOMC governor research was inaccessible due to system server issues.
- OIS forward curve analysis remained unobtainable due to technical faults.
- Critical deficit and national debt data retrieval failed.
- Key market catalysts detailed analysis is currently unavailable.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 0 cuts | 14.0% | 11.0% | Market higher by 3.0pp |
| Exactly 2 cuts | 25.0% | 21.5% | Market higher by 3.5pp |
| Exactly 1 cut | 19.0% | 14.0% | Market higher by 5.0pp |
| Exactly 3 cuts | 22.0% | 21.5% | Market higher by 0.5pp |
| Exactly 6 cuts | 5.0% | 4.8% | Market higher by 0.2pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Based on the provided chart data, this market has established a long-term sideways trading range between a low of $0.07 and a high of $0.30. The price action indicates an early period of low probability, followed by a significant rally to the 30% peak, which now serves as a major resistance level. Since that peak, the price has trended lower, currently settling at 13%. The 7% to 8% area has acted as a historical support floor for the market. The total volume of over 254,000 contracts is substantial, suggesting that these key price levels were formed with significant market participation and reflect a strong consensus at those times.
The primary price spike to the $0.30 resistance level and the subsequent decline are the most notable movements. However, as no additional context on economic news or central bank policy has been provided, the specific catalysts for this surge in optimism and its reversal cannot be determined from the technical data alone. The current market sentiment, reflected by the 13% price, is one of low conviction. It suggests that participants believe the "YES" outcome is a low-probability event, but the price remains well above the market's all-time lows, indicating the possibility is not entirely discounted. The overall sideways trend signals a period of price consolidation and market uncertainty as participants await new information to form a stronger directional opinion.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided page content, the market pertains to the "Number of rate cuts in 2026." However, the exact conditions for a "YES" or "NO" resolution are not specified, as the page content does not define a particular threshold for the number of rate cuts. Key dates, deadlines, and any special settlement conditions are not detailed within the provided text.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 cuts | $0.25 | $0.76 | 25% |
| Exactly 3 cuts | $0.22 | $0.80 | 22% |
| Exactly 1 cut | $0.19 | $0.82 | 19% |
| Exactly 0 cuts | $0.14 | $0.87 | 14% |
| Exactly 4 cuts | $0.14 | $0.87 | 14% |
| Exactly 5 cuts | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| Exactly 6 cuts | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| Exactly 7 cuts | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Exactly 10 cuts | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Exactly 11 cuts | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Exactly 12 cuts | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Exactly 13 cuts | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Exactly 14 cuts | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Exactly 15 cuts | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Exactly 16 cuts | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Exactly 17 cuts | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Exactly 18 cuts | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Exactly 19 cuts | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Exactly 20 cuts | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Exactly 8 cuts | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Exactly 9 cuts | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. What Was the Research Outcome for This Query?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Reason for Failure | System encountered an technical error |
The requested research could not be completed due to a technical server error. An internal server error occurred during the research process for the query regarding the neutral rate of interest (r-star), which prevented the successful retrieval of any specific findings or data. This technical issue indicated that the system was unable to process the request and access the necessary information to generate a comprehensive response.
Consequently, no specific findings or data can be presented. Due to this unsuccessful research attempt and the inability to complete the data extraction, no detailed data points, key metrics, or contextual paragraphs are available. Therefore, the original question concerning the consensus range for r-star in the New York Fed's Laubach-Williams model and the Richmond Fed's model, and its comparison to the FOMC's median long-run dot plot projection, remains unanswered from this research iteration.
5. Why Was Research Data Unavailable Due To An Internal Error?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Retrieval | Unsuccessful (System Malfunction) |
| Information Availability | None (Error During Processing) |
The requested research on FOMC governors could not be completed. An internal server error prevented the system from accessing or processing the necessary information to generate key findings and data points for the query. Consequently, no specific research outcomes or data are available regarding FOMC governors' term expirations or their potential replacements' monetary policy leanings.
No meaningful insights or factual data are available. Without successful research execution, it was impossible to extract any insights or present factual data. The system encountered an unexpected condition that halted the research operation before any results could be compiled or formatted.
Further investigation is required to successfully perform this research. Resolving the internal server error is a prerequisite to conducting the research successfully and obtaining the requested information.
6. Why Was Research Data Unavailable Due To An Internal Error?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
| Data Availability | None |
Research on OIS forward curve was unobtainable due to technical error. The requested analysis, which sought to quantify the basis points of cuts currently priced into the 2026 segment of the Overnight Index Swap (OIS) forward curve and identify the implied terminal rate for the end of 2025, could not be completed. This issue arose from an internal server error that prevented the system from accessing or processing the necessary financial information.
System error prevented data access, yielding no specific findings. As a direct consequence of this technical difficulty, no specific data points, analytical insights, or summarized content regarding market-based interest rate expectations can be provided at this time. To obtain the desired research, further attempts to retrieve the information will be necessary once the underlying technical issue has been resolved.
7. Why Was Research Unsuccessful Due to Internal Server Error?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | No data found |
| Reason | Server-side issue during research |
Server error prevented retrieval of crucial deficit and debt data. The research process encountered an internal server error, which inhibited the successful retrieval and processing of information. Consequently, this technical issue precluded the extraction of any specific findings or data points related to the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) 10-year projections for the U.S. federal deficit and debt-to-GDP ratio for 2025-2026.
No analysis of fiscal dominance risk was possible. As a direct result, the system was unable to provide any relevant details, statistics, or summaries addressing the extent to which these projections might suggest a risk of 'fiscal dominance' or its implications for Federal Reserve policy. Resolving the server-side problem is essential before further attempts can be made to obtain the necessary data and address the original research question.
8. What Was the Outcome of the Recent Research Query?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
| Data Availability | None |
The research query encountered an internal server error during execution. This technical issue prevented the system from successfully executing the request to identify specific unemployment rate and core PCE inflation thresholds cited by sitting Fed governors in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) as conditions for the first rate cut of an easing cycle.
Consequently, no specific findings or data could be accessed. As a direct result of this server-side malfunction, the system was unable to retrieve any information from the intended sources, meaning no analytical summaries, data points, or specific conditions related to 2026 rate cuts could be generated.
Further action is required to resolve this server-side issue. To obtain valid research results and address the original query, it will be necessary to conduct further investigation into the underlying internal server error or to re-attempt the research query.
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis not available.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis not available.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 30 markets in this series
Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 28 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXRATECUTCOUNT-25DEC31-T9: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
- KXRATECUTCOUNT-25DEC31-T8: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
- KXRATECUTCOUNT-25DEC31-T7: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
- KXRATECUTCOUNT-25DEC31-T15: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
- KXRATECUTCOUNT-25DEC31-T13: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
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