Fed decision in Dec 2025?
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed maintains rate | 1.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Cut 25bps | 1.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Cut >25bps | 1.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Hike 25bps | 1.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Hike >25bps | 1.0% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cut 25bps | $1.00 | $1.00 | 100% |
| Cut >25bps | $1.00 | $1.00 | 100% |
| Fed maintains rate | $1.00 | $1.00 | 100% |
| Hike 25bps | $1.00 | $1.00 | 100% |
| Hike >25bps | $1.00 | $1.00 | 100% |
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