Fed decision in Apr 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect the Fed to maintain rates in April 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Internal server error prevented completion of detailed market research.
- Higher-than-expected inflation reports influence market toward a 'YES' outcome.
- Robust employment data and wage growth drive market toward a 'YES'.
- Strong Q4 2025 GDP revisions also support a 'YES' outcome.
- Hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials could influence 'YES'.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cut 25bps | 13.0% | 13.2% | The Fed may cut rates if inflation is sustainably at target amid slowing economic growth. |
| Fed maintains rate | 88.0% | 83.3% | The Fed is likely to maintain rates if the economy remains stable and inflation is near target. |
| Cut >25bps | 2.0% | 1.5% | A large rate cut would likely occur only in response to a severe economic recession or crisis. |
| Hike 25bps | 2.0% | 1.5% | A rate hike could occur if inflation reaccelerates significantly and economic growth remains strong. |
| Hike >25bps | 1.0% | 0.5% | An aggressive rate hike would be required only if inflation becomes rapidly uncontrolled and persistent. |
Current Context
Recent data shows economic stability amidst ongoing debate over future monetary policy. The Federal Reserve's January 2026 FOMC meeting held the key interest rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%, following three rate cuts in late 2025. Minutes from this meeting indicated that the "vast majority" of participants observed signs of a stabilized job market and diminished risks of job losses, with most officials agreeing the key rate is near a level that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy [^]. Recent economic data further supports this picture, with the annual US inflation rate slowing to 2.4% in January 2026, its lowest since May 2025, and core inflation easing to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021 [^]. The labor market also showed strength, with the January jobs report adding 130,000 jobs, the largest gain in over a year, and the unemployment rate slightly decreasing to 4.3%; Governor Christopher J. Waller noted this report was "substantially stronger" than anticipated [^]. Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Waller and Presidents Collins and Barkin, have consistently signaled a patient, data-dependent approach, largely viewing current policy as "well positioned" or "mildly restrictive or close to neutral" [^]. However, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee suggested the possibility of "several more" rate cuts in 2026 should inflation continue its progress toward the 2% target [^].
Experts offer varied outlooks on future interest rates and inflation trajectory. Market participants and policymakers are closely monitoring key indicators such as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), labor market data (unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, job openings, wage growth), and real GDP growth, alongside the potential impacts of tariffs and Artificial Intelligence [^]. Divergent expert opinions reflect uncertainty regarding the Fed's path for the remainder of 2026. J.P. Morgan Global Research, for instance, no longer anticipates Fed rate cuts in 2026, expecting rates to remain at 3.5%-3.75% for the year, with a potential hike in Q3 2027, forecasting US inflation to accelerate above 3% [^]. Conversely, Goldman Sachs and Barclays have pushed back their expectations for rate cuts to mid-2026, with Goldman projecting the federal funds rate to conclude the year between 3% and 3.25% [^]. Vanguard anticipates steady growth and a cautious approach to easing, with less urgency for rate cuts as the federal funds rate aligns with neutral estimates [^]. Concerns about persistent inflation are voiced by RBC Economics, which predicts inflation will remain closer to 3% throughout 2026, with core CPI peaking at 3% in Q2 [^]. The Peterson Institute for International Economics warns inflation could even exceed 4% by the end of 2026 due to factors like lagged tariff effects and an expanding fiscal deficit [^]. In contrast, the Congressional Budget Office projects stronger output growth in 2026, a gradually improving labor market, and PCE inflation slowing to 2.7% for the year, eventually reaching 2% by 2030, with interest rates declining and then stabilizing [^].
Upcoming FOMC meetings and data releases will shape future policy decisions. The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 17-18, 2026, is a key event, as it will include an updated Summary of Economic Projections, directly preceding the April 2026 FOMC meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 [^]. Beyond these meetings, ongoing releases of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, along with monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) and labor market reports, will continue to significantly shape expectations for monetary policy [^]. The central debates and concerns revolve around the future interest rate trajectory, specifically whether the Fed will implement further cuts, how many, and when, or if it will maintain its current stance or even consider future hikes. Additionally, the persistence of inflation above the 2% target, the stability and long-term dynamics of the labor market including the impact of AI, and whether the current policy setting is appropriately restrictive, neutral, or too accommodative, remain critical considerations. The influence of government spending, the fiscal deficit, and trade tariffs on the economy and inflation also contribute to these ongoing discussions [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market, tracking the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in April 2026, exhibits a clear long-term downward trend. Over its history, the perceived likelihood of a cut has fallen from a starting point of 28.0% to a current price of 15.0%, which is near its all-time low of 13.0%. While the overarching trend is bearish for a rate cut, the market has experienced significant short-term volatility in early 2026, with prices fluctuating in response to key economic data releases. These movements demonstrate the market's high sensitivity to new information regarding inflation and labor market strength.
The recent price action is directly attributable to specific economic catalysts. A sharp 12.0 percentage point drop on February 11, from 29.0% to 17.0%, was driven by a stronger-than-expected January jobs report, which reduced the perceived need for monetary easing. Conversely, this was followed by an 8.0 percentage point spike to 26.0% on February 13, after a lower-than-expected CPI report suggested inflation was cooling, giving the Fed more flexibility to consider a cut. Earlier, the market saw a 9.0 percentage point drop on January 28, coinciding with the FOMC meeting minutes that signaled a stable economic outlook and a policy rate near a neutral level. This series of reactions shows traders are meticulously pricing in data that either supports or refutes the case for a rate cut.
The total trading volume of over 77,000 contracts indicates significant market participation and conviction in the price discovery process. From a technical standpoint, the market has established a key support level around the $0.13-$0.15 price range, which it is currently testing. Recent resistance has formed in the $0.26-$0.29 zone, which has capped the rallies driven by pro-cut news. Overall, the chart suggests a dominant market sentiment that the Federal Reserve will likely hold rates steady or that conditions warranting a cut are not expected to materialize by April 2026. The consistent downtrend, despite periods of volatility, implies that incoming data has, on balance, reinforced the case against further easing.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Cut 25bps
📈 February 13, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 18.0% to 26.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point spike in the "Cut 25bps" outcome for the "Fed decision in Apr 2026?" market on February 13, 2026, was the release of the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report [^]. The report indicated that headline CPI rose by a slower-than-expected 2.4% year-over-year, with core CPI at 2.5%, representing some of the slowest rises since 2021 due to decelerating housing shelter costs [^]. This benign inflation data led traders to price in higher odds of more than two rate cuts in 2026, despite a strong jobs report earlier in the week [^]. The search did not identify any specific social media activity (posts from key figures, viral narratives) on February 13, 2026, that directly caused or coincided with this precise price movement [^]. While there was earlier news of Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair, an advocate for rate cuts, this occurred at the beginning of February and was not the immediate trigger for this specific spike [^]. Therefore, social media was largely irrelevant as a primary driver for this particular market shift [^].
📉 February 11, 2026: 12.0pp drop
Price decreased from 29.0% to 17.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 12.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for a "Cut 25bps" in April 2026 on February 11, 2026, was the release of a robust January jobs report [^]. On that day, the U.S [^]. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payrolls grew by a stronger-than-expected 130,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, significantly reducing market expectations for near-term Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [^]. This economic data signaled a resilient labor market, diminishing the urgency for the Fed to ease monetary policy [^]. Additionally, hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, including Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, on February 11, reinforced concerns about persistent inflation and the appropriateness of holding rates steady, coinciding with and amplifying the market's reaction to the jobs report [^]. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver or a significant accelerant in this specific market movement [^].
📈 February 06, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 19.0% to 28.0%
What happened: The 9.0 percentage point spike in the "Fed decision in Apr 2026?" market for a "Cut 25bps" outcome on February 06, 2026, was primarily driven by the unexpected delay of the crucial January 2026 U.S [^]. jobs report, which was originally scheduled for release on that day [^]. This postponement due to a government shutdown introduced significant uncertainty into the market, likely fueling speculation for a potential rate cut as a response to a perceived cooling labor market, whose key indicator was now absent [^]. While Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N [^]. Jefferson delivered a speech on "Economic Outlook and Supply-Side (Dis)Inflation Dynamics" on the same day, the specifics of its content are not detailed enough to confirm a direct dovish signal as the primary cause [^]. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver of this price movement [^].
Outcome: Fed maintains rate
📈 February 09, 2026: 20.0pp spike
Price increased from 53.0% to 73.0%
What happened: The 20.0 percentage point spike in the "Fed maintains rate" prediction market on February 09, 2026, was primarily driven by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors holding a closed meeting on that day to review and determine advance and discount rates [^]. This official, albeit private, deliberation signaled to the market that a rate decision was actively being considered, and in the context of recent Fed actions (a pause in January 2026) and subsequent public statements from influential Fed officials on February 11, 2026, expressing caution about inflation and the need for patience before further cuts, market sentiment leaned towards a rate hold [^]. Specifically, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Dallas Fed President Logan both indicated around this time that monetary policy was "in a good place to maintain rates at current levels" and that no further cuts might be needed given inflation persistence and job market stability [^]. Social media activity from prominent non-Fed figures was largely irrelevant to this price movement [^].
📉 February 05, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 79.0% to 71.0%
What happened: The 8.0 percentage point drop in the "Fed maintains rate" outcome for April 2026 on February 05, 2026, was primarily driven by a dovish announcement from the Bank of England (BoE) that same day [^]. The BoE, while holding rates steady, signaled increased openness to future rate cuts, with some members even advocating for immediate reductions [^]. This shift in sentiment from a major central bank likely influenced global market expectations for broader monetary policy easing, increasing the perceived probability of a Fed rate cut by April [^]. Social media activity was irrelevant as a primary driver, with no influential posts identified that directly impacted the Fed's April decision around this time [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The provided page content, "Fed decision in April? Odds & Predictions 2026", is a title and does not contain the specific rules for triggering a YES or NO resolution, nor any special settlement conditions. It only indicates that the market pertains to a "Fed decision" occurring in "April 2026".
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed maintains rate | $0.88 | $0.14 | 88% |
| Cut 25bps | $0.13 | $0.88 | 13% |
| Cut >25bps | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Hike 25bps | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Hike >25bps | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Discussions and debates surrounding the Federal Reserve's decision in April 2026 largely center on a high probability of holding interest rates steady, while acknowledging ongoing disagreements about future policy [^]. Prediction markets currently show an 85-86% chance of no change to the federal funds rate at the April meeting, following a pause in January 2026 after several cuts in late 2025 [^]. However, expert opinions diverge on the path forward for the rest of 2026, with some forecasting one or two additional rate cuts later in the year, particularly around June, due to a cooling labor market and moderating inflation expectations [^]. Conversely, other Fed officials and analysts express concerns about inflation remaining above the 2% target, advocating for continued patience or even hinting at potential rate increases if price pressures persist [^]. The upcoming nomination of a new Fed Chair in May 2026, with anticipated pressure for lower rates from the White House, also adds a layer of political uncertainty to the future monetary policy outlook [^].
5. Why Was Research Data Unavailable Due to Server Error?
| Research Outcome | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
| Data Provided | None |
Research was incomplete, preventing the retrieval of specific findings. An internal server error occurred during the data collection phase of the research process. This server-side issue directly impeded the ability to gather any specific findings or data points relevant to the requested topic, which concerned the aggregate hawk/dove score of voting FOMC members at the April 28-29, 2026 meeting.
No insights or metrics are available for this report. As a direct consequence of the server error, this report cannot provide specific metrics, detailed insights, or supporting data. The inability to complete the research means that the request for key findings could not be fulfilled.
6. Why Were Findings for This Research Question Unavailable?
| Research Status | Internal Server Error (Research System) |
|---|---|
| Data Extraction | Failed (Research System) |
| Content Availability | None (Research System) |
Research encountered a server error, preventing data retrieval. The research process encountered an internal server error, which prevented the successful retrieval and analysis of information for the specified query. Consequently, no specific findings or data points could be extracted or summarized from this research attempt.
No analysis or insights are available at this time. Due to this technical issue, it is currently not possible to provide key insights, supporting data, or detailed analysis regarding the original research question. Further attempts would be required to gather the necessary information.
7. What Was the Outcome of the Research Request?
| Research Status | Internal Server Error |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Research Completion | Unsuccessful |
Research on implied probability of rate cut was incomplete. The investigation into how the implied probability of a 25bps rate cut for the April 29, 2026 meeting changed following the March 18, 2026 FOMC press conference could not be completed. This was due to a technical issue, specifically an internal server error, which prevented the system from accessing or processing any relevant data.
No specific findings or information were extracted for analysis. The technical problem terminated the research process prematurely, meaning no substantive results were yielded for evaluation. Consequently, the initial research request could not be fulfilled at this time.
8. What Are the Current Limitations in Research Data Access?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
| Data Availability | Not available |
Research on financial stress indicators was unobtainable due to a server error. The requested research could not be completed because an internal server error prevented the system from accessing or processing the necessary data sources to generate findings. Consequently, no specific data points or detailed analysis can be provided at this time. The system encountered an unexpected condition during the research process, leading to a complete failure in data retrieval.
Comprehensive findings require resolving the underlying server issue first. Further attempts to research this question necessitate resolving the internal server error. Until this underlying issue is addressed, comprehensive findings pertaining to financial stress indicators, including the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) and credit spreads on the BBB-rated US Corporate Index, remain unobtainable.
9. Why Was Research Data Unavailable for This Query?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | No data extracted |
| Key Findings | Unavailable |
Research on the collective message from final public appearances by Fed Chair Powell, Vice Chair Jefferson, and NY Fed President Williams before the April 2026 pre-meeting blackout period was hindered by a server error. An internal server error occurred during the requested research query, which prevented the extraction of specific findings. This technical issue indicates a problem during the initial data retrieval or processing phase.
No data points or metrics could be identified or formatted as a result of this technical difficulty. Consequently, there is a complete lack of detailed information for this section regarding the frequency of phrases signaling patience ('data-dependent', 'well-positioned') versus action ('risks becoming two-sided', 'timely adjustment'). All fields requiring specific research outcomes, metrics, or supporting citations remain unfilled due to the inability to retrieve relevant data.
Further research attempts are necessary to obtain desired information. Re-running the research query would be required to obtain the desired information and populate the content with the relevant findings regarding the collective message from the specified Fed officials.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key bullish catalysts that could influence the "Fed decision in Apr 2026?" market toward a "YES" outcome include higher-than-expected inflation reports, specifically the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index releases for February and March 2026 [^] . Robust employment data, such as strong job creation and wage growth from the February and March 2026 Employment Situation reports, coupled with signs of strong economic growth indicated by Q4 2025 GDP revisions, would further support a tighter monetary policy stance from the Federal Reserve [^]. Hawkish statements from Fed officials would also contribute to this sentiment [^].
Conversely, bearish catalysts that could push the market towards a "NO" outcome include weaker-than-expected inflation figures, signaling a disinflationary trend in the early months of 2026 [^] . A significant slowdown in job growth or a rise in the unemployment rate, as well as downward revisions to Q4 2025 GDP estimates suggesting slowing economic growth or recession fears, would likely prompt the Federal Reserve to consider a more accommodative monetary policy [^]. Dovish commentary from Fed officials or any concerns regarding financial instability would also increase the probability of a rate cut [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: April 29, 2026
- Expiration: July 29, 2026
- Closes: April 29, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Key bullish catalysts that could influence the "Fed decision in Apr 2026?" market toward a "YES" outcome include higher-than-expected inflation reports, specifically the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index releases for February and March 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: Robust employment data, such as strong job creation and wage growth from the February and March 2026 Employment Situation reports, coupled with signs of strong economic growth indicated by Q4 2025 GDP revisions, would further support a tighter monetary policy stance from the Federal Reserve [^] .
- Trigger: Hawkish statements from Fed officials would also contribute to this sentiment [^] .
- Trigger: Conversely, bearish catalysts that could push the market towards a "NO" outcome include weaker-than-expected inflation figures, signaling a disinflationary trend in the early months of 2026 [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series
Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 40 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXFEDDECISION-26JAN-H26: NO (Jan 28, 2026)
- KXFEDDECISION-26JAN-H25: NO (Jan 28, 2026)
- KXFEDDECISION-26JAN-H0: YES (Jan 28, 2026)
- KXFEDDECISION-26JAN-C26: NO (Jan 28, 2026)
- KXFEDDECISION-26JAN-C25: NO (Jan 28, 2026)
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