Bitcoin price on Apr 15, 2026 at 3pm EDT?

Primary dealers forecast lower SOMA holdings by Q1 2026. The consensus forecast among primary dealers and market participants projects the Federal Reserve's System Open Market Account (SOMA) holdings to be significantly lower in Q1 2026 compared to their 2022 peak. Surveys conducted in late 2024 and early 2025 indicate a median forecast for total SOMA holdings in Q1 2026 ranging from approximately $5.950 trillion to $6.000 trillion ^{[^]}. Specifically, the December 2024 Survey of Primary Dealers reported a median forecast of $5.975 trillion for SOMA holdings in the first quarter of 2026 ^{[^]}.

SOMA holdings will significantly contract from their 2022 peak. This projected level represents a substantial contraction relative to the SOMA balance sheet's historical high. In April 2022, the Federal Reserve's SOMA holdings reached their peak at approximately $8.965 trillion ^{[^]}. Comparing the Q1 2026 forecast of $5.975 trillion to this peak, the balance sheet is expected to contract by roughly $2.990 trillion, which amounts to approximately 33% ^{[^]}.

Balance sheet reduction should largely conclude by late 2025. Surveys further suggest that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is generally expected to cease net asset sales by Q4 2025. At that point, SOMA holdings are estimated to be around $5.900 trillion to $5.950 trillion ^{[^]}. This indicates that by Q1 2026, the period of significant balance sheet reduction will have largely concluded, leaving SOMA holdings at a considerably lower and more restrictive level than observed during the expansive monetary policy period that ended in 2022.

Bitcoin's 90-day average hashrate experienced overall growth in 2025. Following the April 2024 halving, mining difficulty rose by 35% ^{[^]}. This growth reflects ongoing efforts by some miners to secure the network and capitalize on potential future price appreciation, despite the immediate impact of reduced block rewards post-halving ^{[^]}.

Growth moderated significantly due to severe profitability challenges for miners. The environment was described as "standing on soft ground" ^{[^]}, leading to a "profit crisis" and "industry shakeout" by early 2026 ^{[^]}. Consequently, the quarter-over-quarter growth trend became less consistently "sustained and strong" through the end of 2025, with heavy capital investment becoming more selective due to compressed profitability for less efficient operators ^{[^]}. Projections for 2026 further indicate a significant slowdown in hashrate growth, including a reported 2.9% decline and being on pace for the slowest growth yet ^{[^]}, suggesting that strong growth was not consistently maintained through the latter half of 2025 due to mounting economic pressures on miners.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved options trading for spot Bitcoin ETFs ahead of Q4 2025. This regulatory clearance occurred in November 2024, enabling the listing and trading of these options ^{[^]}. Following this approval, the Nasdaq Stock Market filed a proposed rule change to facilitate the trading of options on specific spot Bitcoin ETFs ^{[^]}. Notably, options for the Nasdaq-listed iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) were among the first to receive approval and commence trading ^{[^]}.

Initial trading volume for Bitcoin ETF options was substantial, attracting significant market interest. On their first day of trading, options on spot Bitcoin ETFs, including IBIT, recorded a notional volume of $2 billion ^{[^]}. This strong initial participation underscores the market's enthusiasm. The introduction of these options is expected to enhance Bitcoin's market infrastructure by providing sophisticated hedging mechanisms and fostering deeper institutional engagement ^{[^]}. As the raw research only provides first-day volume, the average daily notional volume for the first 90 days cannot be determined from the available information.

Long-Term Holders experienced a net decrease in Bitcoin supply after the 2024 halving. Between the 2024 Bitcoin halving and January 2026, Long-Term Holders (LTHs) saw a net reduction in their Bitcoin supply. This change was primarily driven by significant selling activity, rather than accumulation, which contributed to downward pressure on Bitcoin's price during this period ^{[^]}.

Significant LTH selling in early 2026 indicates a reduction in illiquid supply. By January 28, 2026, market analysis confirmed that Long-Term Holders had resumed substantial Bitcoin selling. This pattern of distribution by long-term investors suggests that these entities were offloading their holdings instead of increasing them. Such behavior signals a reduction in the illiquid supply typically held by long-term investors, contrasting sharply with a scenario of strong accumulation ^{[^]}.

Heavy LTH selling counteracted potential bullish support and added market pressure. The observed distribution by LTHs during this timeframe implies that Bitcoin's supply did not become more illiquid due to strong conviction from long-term holders. Instead, this selling likely counteracted the formation of a bullish price floor and potentially added to overall market sell pressure. This outcome is in direct contrast to the expectation that a substantial net increase in LTH supply would typically signal strong accumulation and a bullish market outlook ^{[^]}.

FinCEN's existing unhosted wallet proposal lacks a clear implementation timeline. The U.S. Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) previously issued a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM), RIN 1506-AB64, in December 2020. This proposal aims to regulate transactions involving "unhosted wallets," which are self-custodial wallets, by requiring banks and money services businesses (MSBs) to report certain transactions and maintain records. The stated rationale for these requirements includes concerns about illicit finance and Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) ^{[^]}. However, according to the Spring 2025 Unified Agenda, which was published in April 2024, the "next action" for this specific FinCEN proposal is designated as "undetermined," indicating that there is no defined schedule for its implementation by mid-2025 ^{[^]}.

No new targeted regulations are expected from FinCEN or SEC by mid-2025. Available research does not indicate any new proposals from either FinCEN or the SEC that specifically target self-custodial wallets or DeFi interaction protocols for implementation by mid-2025 ^{[^]}. While external letters concerning non-custodial wallet software have been submitted to the SEC's Crypto Task Force, these communications do not constitute formal SEC proposals ^{[^]}. Furthermore, a separate FinCEN NPRM addressing Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism Program and Suspicious Activity Report Filing Requirements for Registered Investment Advisers is scheduled for April 2026. This timeline falls outside the mid-2025 timeframe and the proposal does not specifically address self-custodial wallets or DeFi interaction protocols ^{[^]}.

Catalyst analysis unavailable.