Bitcoin price on Apr 14, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing for Bitcoin's price to be $60,500 or above on Apr 14, 2026, with 99.4% model probability versus 0.0% market probability. This suggests a strong positive directional shift, driven by significant ETF inflows, post-halving bull market indicators, and increasing US regulatory clarity.
1. Executive Verdict
- Substantial U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows occurred during March 2026.
- Miners accumulated significantly post-halving, indicating strong market confidence.
- U.S. Congress passed comprehensive stablecoin legislation by Q1 2026.
- New SEC Chair defined clear digital asset regulation by early 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| $75,250 or above | 54.0% | 65.4% | Q1 2026 ETF inflows, strong post-halving indicators, and US regulatory clarity support Bitcoin's price. |
| $74,500 or above | 81.0% | 87.3% | Q1 2026 ETF inflows, strong post-halving indicators, and US regulatory clarity support Bitcoin's price. |
| $75,000 or above | 63.0% | 73.3% | Q1 2026 ETF inflows, strong post-halving indicators, and US regulatory clarity support Bitcoin's price. |
| $76,000 or above | 23.0% | 32.4% | Q1 2026 ETF inflows, strong post-halving indicators, and US regulatory clarity support Bitcoin's price. |
| $74,750 or above | 72.0% | 80.6% | Q1 2026 ETF inflows, strong post-halving indicators, and US regulatory clarity support Bitcoin's price. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market's price chart displays a completely static trend, with the probability holding steady at 99.0% across all recorded data points. There have been no significant movements, spikes, or drops since the market opened. This flatline price action is a direct result of a total absence of trading activity, meaning no new information or shifts in sentiment have been priced in by market participants.
The most critical observation from the chart is the total traded volume of zero contracts. This indicates the market is entirely illiquid, and the current 99.0% price does not reflect a consensus formed through active buying and selling. Because there has been no trading, no support or resistance levels have been established; the 99.0% level is simply the only price that has been quoted.
The chart suggests an extremely high, though entirely untested, sentiment that the market will resolve to "YES". This implies a near-certain belief that Bitcoin's price will be at or below the $60,499.99 threshold at resolution. However, the lack of any volume means this conviction is theoretical and has not been validated or challenged by actual trading activity. The price represents an initial quote rather than a dynamic, participant-driven market consensus.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) prices, collected just before 5 PM EDT on April 14, 2026, is above $75,249.99. Otherwise, the market resolves to "No." The final settlement value is the simple average of these 60 BRTI prices, verified directly from CF Benchmarks, with the market closing at 5:00 PM EDT on April 14, 2026.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| $68,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $69,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $69,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $69,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $70,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $70,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $70,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $70,750 or above | $0.99 | $0.02 | 98% |
| $71,250 or above | $0.99 | $0.02 | 98% |
| $71,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 98% |
| $71,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 98% |
| $72,000 or above | $0.99 | $0.02 | 98% |
| $69,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 97% |
| $71,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 97% |
| $72,500 or above | $0.98 | $0.03 | 97% |
| $72,750 or above | $0.98 | $0.03 | 97% |
| $73,000 or above | $0.98 | $0.03 | 97% |
| $72,250 or above | $0.98 | $0.03 | 96% |
| $73,500 or above | $0.97 | $0.05 | 95% |
| $73,250 or above | $0.98 | $0.04 | 94% |
| $73,750 or above | $0.97 | $0.06 | 94% |
| $74,000 or above | $0.94 | $0.09 | 91% |
| $74,250 or above | $0.90 | $0.13 | 86% |
| $74,500 or above | $0.84 | $0.19 | 81% |
| $74,750 or above | $0.77 | $0.27 | 72% |
| $75,000 or above | $0.67 | $0.35 | 63% |
| $75,250 or above | $0.56 | $0.47 | 54% |
| $75,500 or above | $0.42 | $0.59 | 42% |
| $75,750 or above | $0.34 | $0.69 | 32% |
| $76,000 or above | $0.25 | $0.78 | 23% |
| $76,250 or above | $0.18 | $0.86 | 16% |
| $76,500 or above | $0.12 | $0.91 | 10% |
| $76,750 or above | $0.09 | $0.94 | 6% |
| $77,250 or above | $0.05 | $0.98 | 4% |
| $77,500 or above | $0.04 | $0.98 | 4% |
| $77,750 or above | $0.04 | $1.00 | 4% |
| $78,000 or above | $0.03 | $0.99 | 4% |
| $78,250 or above | $0.03 | $1.00 | 4% |
| $79,000 or above | $0.03 | $0.99 | 3% |
| $77,000 or above | $0.06 | $0.97 | 2% |
| $78,500 or above | $0.03 | $0.99 | 1% |
| $78,750 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $79,250 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $79,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $79,750 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $80,000 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $80,250 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $60,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $60,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $61,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $61,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $61,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $61,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $62,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $62,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $62,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $62,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $63,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $63,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $63,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $63,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $64,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $64,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $64,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $64,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $65,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $65,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $65,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $65,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| $66,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $66,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $66,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $66,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $67,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $67,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $67,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $67,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $68,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $68,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| $68,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. How Do Market Expectations Differ from Fed Rate Projections for 2025?
| Market Implied Fed Funds Rate (End 2025) | 4.70% [^], [^] |
|---|---|
| FOMC Median Fed Funds Rate Projection (End 2025) | 4.90% [^], [^] |
| Implied Rate Cuts (Market vs. FOMC) | Market expects ~2 cuts, FOMC expects ~1 cut [^], [^], [^], [^] |
Markets project a 4.70% terminal Federal Funds Rate by end-2025. The market-implied terminal Federal Funds Rate for the end of 2025 is projected at approximately 4.70% [^], [^]. This expectation, derived from 30-Day Fed Funds futures and informed by the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, suggests that market participants anticipate approximately two 25-basis-point rate cuts from current levels by the close of 2025 [^], [^], [^].
The Fed's projection for 2025 is higher at 4.90%. Conversely, the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), released on December 10, 2025, presented a different outlook. The median projection among Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants for the Federal Funds Rate at the end of 2025 was 4.90% [^], [^]. This median figure indicates that FOMC members, on average, expected only one rate cut for 2025 from the prevailing rate at the time of the December release [^].
A 20-basis-point gap shows differing rate outlooks. The 20-basis-point difference between the market's expectation of 4.70% and the FOMC's median projection of 4.90% highlights a significant divergence in perspectives. This gap points to differing opinions between market participants and FOMC members regarding the likely pace and extent of future interest rate adjustments through the end of 2025.
5. What Were U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows in Q1 2026?
| March 2026 Bitcoin ETF Inflows | $1.32 billion to $2.5 billion [^] |
|---|---|
| UAE Sovereign Fund Bitcoin ETF Holdings | Over $1 billion [^] |
| Bitcoin ETF Inflow Trend in March 2026 | First monthly inflow of 2026, ending four-month outflow streak [^] |
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced substantial inflows in March 2026. These inflows ranged from $1.32 billion to $2.5 billion [^], marking the first month of net inflows for Bitcoin ETFs in 2026. This significant shift effectively reversed a preceding four-month period of outflows [^]. Despite the strong performance in March, the available research does not provide precise cumulative net inflow figures for the entire Q1 2026, as detailed data for January and February 2026 inflows is not fully presented.
Only UAE sovereign wealth funds publicly hold Bitcoin ETFs. Specifically, UAE sovereign wealth funds have publicly disclosed holdings exceeding $1 billion in Bitcoin ETFs [^]. However, the research available does not indicate that other major sovereign wealth funds or any top-50 global pension funds have publicly announced direct or ETF-based allocations to Bitcoin.
6. What Bitcoin On-Chain Metrics Indicate Post-Halving Bull Market?
| Miner Net Position Change | Significant reduction in selling pressure, with 67,000 BTC absorbed by accumulation addresses (around April 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Realized Price vs. 200-week MA | Broken above 200-week moving average (mid-2025) [^] |
| Miner Selling Activity | Significantly slowed post-halving (around April 2026) [^] |
Miners show strong accumulation post-halving, signaling market confidence. Approximately two years after the April 2024 halving, around April 2026, on-chain metrics indicate a significant shift towards accumulation by Bitcoin miners and strong signals for a potential bull market. Miner net selling has substantially decreased, with accumulation addresses absorbing significant quantities of Bitcoin as miner-led selling declines [^]. This trend suggests a movement away from heavy distribution, indicating increasing confidence among miners in Bitcoin's future price trajectory or a diminished necessity to cover operational costs at current price levels [^].
Realized price exceeding 200-week moving average signals a bull market. For macro cycle positioning, the comparison of Bitcoin's realized price to its 200-week moving average presents a robust bullish signal. The realized price, representing the average cost basis of all coins within the network, has historically served as a critical metric [^]. This metric surpassed its 200-week moving average in mid-2025, according to research, which historically suggests a potential sustained bull run [^]. This crossover indicates that the market's aggregate cost basis is rising above a long-term support level, frequently marking the transition from an accumulation phase into a new growth cycle [^].
7. What Are US Crypto Regulations and SEC Actions by Q1 2026?
| Stablecoin Legislation Status | Passed by Q1 2026 (119th Congress) [^], [^], [^] |
|---|---|
| Stablecoin Legislation Name | GENIUS Act (S.1582) [^] |
| SEC DeFi Enforcement Action | No definitive landscape-altering action against major DeFi protocol by Q1 2026 [^] |
By Q1 2026, the U.S. Congress successfully passed comprehensive stablecoin legislation. The Senate approved the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act (S.1582), which established the first federal stablecoin framework before advancing to the House of Representatives [^]. This landmark legislation is associated with the 119th Congress, spanning 2025-2026 [^]. Further details regarding the implementation efforts for the GENIUS Act were outlined in a Federal Register document dated March 2, 2026, signifying the official establishment and ongoing execution of the framework [^].
The SEC clarified crypto laws, but did not take significant DeFi enforcement action. During the same period, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a press release titled "SEC Clarifies the Application of Federal Securities Laws to Crypto Assets" in 2026 [^]. However, available research does not indicate that the SEC took a definitive enforcement action against a major decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol that significantly altered the legal landscape for DeFi [^]. The information points to a clarification of existing federal securities laws as applied to crypto assets rather than a specific, landscape-altering enforcement action.
8. What were SEC and Treasury leaders' 2025 digital asset stances?
| SEC Chairman Appointment | Paul S. Atkins sworn into office in 2025 [^] |
|---|---|
| Treasury Secretary Confirmation | Scott Bessent confirmed on January 27, 2025 [^] |
| SEC Digital Asset Stance | Chair Atkins advocated clear regulatory frameworks and 'Project Crypto' in 2025 [^] |
Paul S. Atkins assumed SEC Chair, defining digital asset regulation. He was nominated and subsequently sworn in as the new Chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in early 2025 [^]. Throughout 2025, Chair Atkins actively articulated the SEC's evolving approach to digital asset regulation. In July 2025, he delivered a speech emphasizing the importance of U.S. leadership in digital finance, aiming to foster innovation alongside robust investor protection [^]. By November 2025, Chair Atkins further elaborated on the SEC's strategy, introducing an initiative known as 'Project Crypto,' during a speech outlining the commission's comprehensive approach to digital assets [^]. The SEC's subsequent press release in 2026, which clarified the application of federal securities laws to crypto assets, reflected the ongoing regulatory development initiated under his tenure [^].
Scott Bessent confirmed Treasury Secretary, but specific digital asset policies are unclear. He received Senate confirmation as the Treasury Secretary on January 27, 2025 [^]. However, the provided web research results do not detail his specific public stance or policy direction regarding digital asset regulation throughout 2025. The available information primarily focuses on the SEC's activities under Chair Atkins concerning digital assets [^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: April 14, 2026
- Expiration: April 21, 2026
- Closes: April 14, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTCD-26APR1411-T79799.99: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR1411-T79699.99: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR1411-T79599.99: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR1411-T79499.99: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR1411-T79399.99: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
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