Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for the US taking a stake in TikTok US, driven by the government's recent trend of direct equity investments under a new industrial policy framework. The model sees potential mispricing: TikTok US at 27.8% model vs 13.0% market, indicating a stronger likelihood of government intervention possibilities than currently reflected.
1. Executive Verdict
- New industrial policy funds drive government equity stakes.
- US government intervenes when financial distress threatens essential services.
- Chinese AI leapfrog acts as potent catalyst for US government stakes.
- US government uses "golden shares" for national security influence.
- US government has taken stakes in Intel and a rare earths miner.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anduril | 25.0% | 27.8% | Model higher by 2.8pp |
| Anthropic | 9.0% | 27.8% | Model higher by 18.8pp |
| Palantir | 12.0% | 23.8% | Model higher by 11.8pp |
| Lockheed Martin | 17.0% | 23.8% | Model higher by 6.8pp |
| Nvidia | 9.0% | 23.8% | Model higher by 14.8pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Based on the chart data, this market is exhibiting a clear sideways trend with very low volatility. The price has been confined to a narrow 2-point range, fluctuating between a support level at 12.0% and a resistance level at 14.0%. The market opened at the top of this range and is currently trading near the midpoint at 13.0%, indicating a slight negative drift but no definitive directional momentum. The provided context includes no specific news or developments, which aligns with the chart's lack of significant price spikes or drops; the minor oscillations appear to be routine market noise rather than reactions to external events.
The trading volume provides further insight into market sentiment. With a total of only 573 contracts traded over the market's lifespan and zero volume on the specific sample dates, trading activity appears to be sporadic and light. This low volume suggests a lack of strong conviction from traders and may indicate that the market is waiting for a significant catalyst to drive price discovery. Overall, the price action and volume patterns suggest a market consensus that the event has a stable, low probability of occurring. The sentiment is neutral to slightly bearish, with participants showing little urgency to push the price outside of its established narrow range.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 March 24, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 18.0% to 7.0%
Outcome: Palantir
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
- YES Resolution: The market resolves to "Yes" if any part of the United States federal government acquires direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent interests in Anduril before January 1, 2027. This "stake" includes indirect ownership and pre-existing stakes, but excludes non-equity instruments like bonds or loans.
- NO Resolution: If no such stake acquisition by the U.S. federal government in Anduril occurs by January 1, 2027, the market resolves to "No."
- Key Dates/Deadlines: The market opened on December 10, 2025, and the stake acquisition must happen before January 1, 2027. The market will close by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 pm EST, if the outcome hasn't occurred earlier.
- Special Settlement Conditions: The market will close and expire early if a stake acquisition is announced before the final deadline. Payouts are projected 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anduril | $0.25 | $0.79 | 25% |
| Boeing | $0.20 | $0.82 | 21% |
| Lockheed Martin | $0.20 | $0.83 | 17% |
| Eli Lilly | $0.13 | $0.88 | 13% |
| Micron | $0.15 | $0.87 | 13% |
| OpenAI | $0.15 | $0.87 | 13% |
| TikTok US | $0.13 | $0.88 | 13% |
| Palantir | $0.12 | $0.90 | 12% |
| Freeport-McMoRan | $0.11 | $0.91 | 10% |
| Anthropic | $0.09 | $0.92 | 9% |
| D-Wave Quantum | $0.08 | $0.94 | 9% |
| Nvidia | $0.10 | $0.95 | 9% |
| TSMC | $0.10 | $0.91 | 9% |
| IonQ | $0.08 | $0.97 | 8% |
| Pfizer | $0.08 | $0.97 | 8% |
| Rigetti Computing | $0.06 | $0.96 | 8% |
| GlobalFoundries | $0.08 | $0.94 | 7% |
Market Discussion
Traders in this market are primarily focused on defense contractors, with Anduril, Boeing, and Lockheed Martin currently holding the highest probabilities (20-21%) for the US to take a stake this year. A key argument for a "Yes" on Lockheed Martin highlights ongoing global conflicts as a reason for such a strategic investment. Conversely, a "No" argument for Anduril suggests it wouldn't be logical for the government to invest in a successful, efficient private company.
5. What is the US government's primary method for acquiring company equity?
| Primary Equity Vehicle | New industrial policy fund (modeled on CHIPS Act) [^] |
|---|---|
| Specific Investment Example | $1.6 billion and equity stake in rare earths miner [^] |
| Strategic Target Companies | Strategic technology companies like Intel for chip manufacturing [^] |
New industrial policy funds are the most likely equity stake vehicle. The US government is most likely to acquire equity stakes in companies through a new industrial policy fund, drawing inspiration from initiatives like the CHIPS Act. This approach is demonstrated by the US government's investment of $1.6 billion and an accompanying equity stake in a rare earths miner, reflecting a strategic focus on securing critical supply chains [^]. Furthermore, reports indicate that a Trump administration has actively pursued equity stakes in companies such as Intel, aiming to accelerate American technology and manufacturing leadership, including a historic agreement to boost US chip manufacturing [^]. This aligns with a broader trend of the administration's equity portfolio expanding through investments in crucial sectors [^].
Proactive industrial policy outweighs other US equity investment scenarios. While a TARP-style bailout for a financially distressed critical industry leader, such as Boeing, has been discussed as a potential scenario for US investment [^], and CFIUS-forced sales primarily involve divestment rather than government equity acquisition, current research more strongly supports proactive industrial policy as the predominant mechanism for new equity stakes. The strategic emphasis on strengthening domestic capabilities in critical technologies and manufacturing, evident in investments in rare earths and semiconductor firms, indicates that a fund structured to accelerate strategic sectors is the primary framework for future government equity investments [^].
6. When Does the US Government Intervene in Companies?
| Inability to secure private capital | Primary trigger for intervention [^] |
|---|---|
| Systemic economic risk | Failure could cascade across financial system [^] |
| Critical supply chain gaps | Create national security vulnerabilities [^] |
The US government may intervene when financial distress threatens the broader economy or essential services. A primary financial indicator is a company's failure to raise sufficient private capital from traditional markets, indicating severe financial distress and a lack of investor confidence [^]. Historically, government bailouts are employed to prevent failures of "too big to fail" or "too interconnected to fail" entities from causing a domino effect across the economy, protecting jobs, and maintaining critical industries when private solutions are unavailable [^].
Operational vulnerabilities or national security threats can also trigger government intervention. These indicators frequently involve threats to national security, critical infrastructure, or essential services. The identification of a critical supply chain gap, particularly within sectors vital to national defense, could trigger intervention if it is directly linked to a single contractor's financial distress or operational failure [^]. Moreover, national security concerns, such as those related to the foreign ownership or control of critical technology assets, can directly drive government intervention, potentially leading the US to take a stake to secure national interests, even if the company is not financially distressed [^].
7. What Geopolitical Events Would Prompt US Government AI Stakes?
| DeepSeek Market Impact | Billions wiped from US stock market in Jan 2025 [^] |
|---|---|
| US Intel Stake | 10% for "AI Chip Independence" [^] |
| TSMC US Investment | $100 billion for five new US factories [^] |
A demonstrated leapfrog in AI capabilities by a Chinese company would act as the most potent catalyst for the US government to consider taking a stake in companies like OpenAI or Anthropic. This type of event has already been observed, with China's DeepSeek reportedly wiping billions from the US stock market in January 2025 and sending a "New Year's message to American companies" [^]. Such an advancement directly challenges US technological superiority in a critical strategic domain, creating an immediate and undeniable impetus for action to secure national interests in foundational AI technology.
The US government proactively secures leadership in critical technologies through strategic investments. Evidence of this approach includes its 10% stake in Intel, taken for "AI Chip Independence" [^]. A severe, demonstrated leapfrog in AI capabilities by a Chinese entity would directly intensify existing concerns about maintaining a competitive edge and national security in artificial intelligence, likely prompting further strategic investments in leading US-based AI developers.
Other geopolitical events are less potent catalysts for government investment. While a military action or blockade of Taiwan would be a major geopolitical crisis, the US has already secured significant onshoring of chip production, with TSMC committing $100 billion for five new US factories [^]. Security worries regarding Taiwanese investments already exist [^], and pre-emptive measures are already in place. Similarly, a documented, severe cyberattack on US infrastructure traced to a Chinese entity, while serious, would more likely trigger punitive actions or enhanced cybersecurity mandates rather than the US government taking an ownership stake in companies like TikTok, where discussions have historically focused on national security risks and potential divestment [^].
8. How Does the U.S. Government Use Golden Shares?
| Primary Mechanism | Golden shares" or preferred stock [^] |
|---|---|
| Government Power | Veto over national security decisions [^] |
| Key Sectors | Defense and critical minerals [^] |
The U.S. government increasingly uses "golden shares" for national security influence. This strategy, notably expanded under the Trump administration, involves leveraging "golden shares" or similar mechanisms to secure influence in companies critical to national security, especially in sectors such as defense and critical minerals [^]. Driven by geopolitical competition, this approach grants the government veto power over specific national security-related decisions without requiring full ownership of the targeted firms [^].
This nuanced approach offers a palatable path for critical firms to engage with the government. It provides a significant pathway for strategically important, financially sound companies like Palantir, Anduril, or OpenAI to secure major defense contracts while simultaneously addressing governmental concerns regarding national security and control [^]. Unlike general equity stakes the government acquires in various companies [^], "golden share" or preferred stock structures offer a more targeted form of oversight. This safeguards governmental interests without the comprehensive financial and operational implications associated with complete nationalization or majority common stock ownership [^], making it a more acceptable prerequisite for innovators crucial to national defense who wish to maintain substantial autonomy [^].
9. How Could a New Administration Acquire Company Stakes in 2025?
| Intel Stake Value | $11.1 billion (10% equity) by March 2025 [^] |
|---|---|
| Acquisition Strategy | Taking equity stakes in critical domestic industries [^] |
| TikTok Action Timeline | September-December 2025 [^] |
Dedicated government funds are the most probable tool for acquiring equity. A new administration in 2025 would most likely use dedicated government funds for industrial policy targets to take stakes in companies. This approach aligns with a reported Trump administration strategy in 2025, which utilized $11.1 billion in US government funds by March 2025 to acquire a 10% equity stake in Intel [^]. This demonstrates a method of converting government funding into stakes within critical domestic industries, such as semiconductors. The timeline for such investments suggests mechanisms would be swiftly established and deployed early in an administration's term, potentially through dedicated funds or programs within the first 100 days [^].
Executive Orders address national security, not direct equity acquisition. While an immediate Executive Order was employed for issues like TikTok, with actions in September 2025 and a deal finalized by late December 2025, this process was primarily focused on national security concerns [^]. The outcome for TikTok involved restructuring or divestment rather than the US government directly taking an equity stake [^]. Furthermore, available sources do not indicate that an expanded CFIUS mandate would be the primary tool for the US government to acquire equity stakes, nor do they suggest a timeline for such acquisitions extending into late 2026.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 08, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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