DoorDash Total Orders in Q4?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that DoorDash Total Orders in Q4 2025 will be above 850 million, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Deliveroo acquisition finalized October 2nd, boosting international orders.
- New Verticals saw substantial, accelerated transaction growth in Q4.
- DoorDash's expanded offerings significantly increased active user penetration.
- DashPass program experienced accelerating churn in Q4 2025, reaching 21.5%.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| above 870 million | 1.0% | 99.5% | DoorDash's sustained growth and Q4 seasonal demand are expected to drive high order volume. |
| above 860 million | 1.0% | 99.5% | DoorDash's sustained growth and Q4 seasonal demand are expected to drive high order volume. |
| above 850 million | 1.0% | 99.5% | DoorDash's sustained growth and Q4 seasonal demand are expected to drive high order volume. |
| above 820 million | 1.0% | 99.5% | DoorDash's sustained growth and Q4 seasonal demand are expected to drive high order volume. |
| above 840 million | 1.0% | 99.5% | DoorDash's sustained growth and Q4 seasonal demand are expected to drive high order volume. |
Current Context
DoorDash exceeded order expectations in Q4 2025, showing strong growth despite some misses. The company released its Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 financial results on February 18, 2026, reporting that Total Orders increased by 32% year-over-year (Y/Y) to 903 million, surpassing analyst expectations [^]. Excluding the Deliveroo acquisition, Total Orders still grew 20% Y/Y [^]. Marketplace Gross Order Value (GOV) rose 39% Y/Y to $29.7 billion, with revenue increasing 38% Y/Y to $4.0 billion [^]. GAAP Net Income increased 51% Y/Y to $213 million, and Adjusted EBITDA grew 38% Y/Y to $780 million [^]. While Total Orders and GOV demonstrated robust growth, the company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.48, missing the analyst consensus of $0.59, and revenue slightly missed consensus estimates of $3.98 billion [^]. Following these mixed financial results, DoorDash shares initially dropped but then reversed course, gaining significantly as investors digested the company's long-term strategic plans [^]. The Deliveroo acquisition contributed to the strong growth in total orders and Marketplace GOV, with its contribution to Adjusted EBITDA slightly exceeding the company's expectation of $45 million in Q4 2025 [^].
Analysts hold positive long-term views despite near-term investment concerns. Equity research analysts generally maintain a "positive" sentiment for DoorDash, citing strong 2025 growth and profitability, though some point to cautious 2026 guidance, with one recent rating being a "Buy" with a $330 price target [^]. TipRanks' AI Analyst, "Spark," rates DASH as "Neutral," acknowledging strong financial performance and a positive earnings outlook, balanced by weak technical conditions and an expensive valuation without dividend support [^]. Investor scrutiny centers on DoorDash's aggressive spending plans for artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous delivery, with concerns about whether these substantial tech investments will deliver sufficient returns amidst intensifying competition and ongoing profitability challenges [^]. For Q1 2026, DoorDash expects Marketplace GOV between $31.0 billion and $31.8 billion and Adjusted EBITDA between $675 million and $775 million [^]. Management anticipates that grocery and retail operations will achieve gross profit positivity in the second half of 2026 [^]. Common concerns include balancing DoorDash's strong top-line growth with persistent profitability challenges due to strategic, yet "margin-compressing," technology investments, the return on AI/autonomous investments, intense competition in global markets (particularly Europe), rising Dasher costs per order, and the impact of external factors like severe storms on Q1 2026 guidance [^]. The ongoing integration of Deliveroo and its incremental investments are also key discussion points impacting Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA expectations [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market, "DoorDash Total Orders in Q4?", exhibited significant volatility before ultimately resolving near certainty. The market began with a high probability of 98.0%, suggesting initial strong confidence that orders would exceed 870 million. However, the price experienced a wide range, trading as low as 26.0% at one point before undergoing a dramatic re-evaluation in late January 2026. This period of volatility was driven by new information and competing narratives. A massive spike from 51.0% to 98.0% between January 29 and January 30 was caused by traders reassessing and pricing in the positive impact of the Deliveroo acquisition on total order numbers. This confidence was briefly shaken on January 31, when a call for a driver strike caused a 9.0 percentage point drop to 89.0%, introducing uncertainty about order fulfillment.
The market's final and decisive movement occurred on February 18, 2026. On this day, the price jumped 12.0 percentage points from 87.0% to 99.0%. This spike was a direct reaction to the official release of DoorDash's Q4 2025 financial results, which confirmed total orders of 903 million. This figure definitively surpassed the 870 million threshold, resolving the market's primary question and causing the probability to converge near 100%. The total traded volume of 25,544 contracts indicates significant market participation and conviction, especially during the periods of high volatility when traders were actively processing the conflicting news of the acquisition's impact versus the potential strike.
The price action suggests key psychological and technical levels. The 98.0%-99.0% range acted as a ceiling and eventual resolution point, representing near-certainty. A temporary support level formed around the 86.0%-89.0% mark in the days leading up to the earnings report, reflecting a high degree of confidence tempered by a small amount of residual uncertainty from the strike news. Overall, the chart illustrates a market that effectively processed complex, conflicting information—weighing acquisition synergies against labor disputes—before decisively reacting to the conclusive, factual data of the earnings report. The final 99.0% price reflects the market's accurate consensus that the official number would exceed the contract's threshold.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: above 870 million
📈 February 18, 2026: 12.0pp spike
Price increased from 87.0% to 99.0%
What happened: The 12.0 percentage point spike in the "DoorDash Total Orders in Q4?" prediction market for the "above 870 million" outcome on February 18, 2026, was primarily driven by the official release of DoorDash's Q4 2025 financial results after market close on that day [^]. DoorDash reported a total of 903 million orders for the fourth quarter, which significantly surpassed both the 870 million threshold of the prediction market and analyst forecasts of approximately 885-888 million orders [^]. This strong performance in order volume, widely reported by traditional news sources coinciding with the price move, directly validated the outcome [^]. Social media activity from key figures or viral narratives was not identified as a primary driver of this specific prediction market movement [^].
📉 January 31, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 98.0% to 89.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point drop in the "DoorDash Total Orders in Q4 [^]? above 870 million" prediction market on January 31, 2026, was likely a social media call for a DoorDash strike scheduled for that same day [^]. A Reddit post from January 17, 2026, explicitly urged a "DOORDASH ON STRIKE!! [^]! JANUARY 31st 2026!!!" [^]. This strike call, circulating prior to and coinciding with the market movement, directly threatened DoorDash's operational capacity and thus the potential for high order volume, causing participants to revise down their expectations for total orders [^]. The social media activity, specifically the strike call, appeared to LEAD the price move [^]. Given the timing and direct relevance to DoorDash's order volume, social media was the primary driver of this market shift [^].
📈 January 30, 2026: 12.0pp spike
Price increased from 86.0% to 98.0%
What happened: The 12.0 percentage point spike in the "above 870 million" outcome for DoorDash Total Orders in Q4 on January 30, 2026, was primarily driven by evolving market expectations regarding the impact of the Deliveroo acquisition [^]. Although DoorDash's official Q4 2025 earnings were not released until February 18, 2026, reporting 903 million total orders, market participants likely began to anticipate that Deliveroo's order volume, following its acquisition close on October 2, 2025, would be fully consolidated into DoorDash's reported total orders, making the 870 million threshold appear more achievable [^]. There is no direct evidence of specific social media activity or a major news announcement on January 30, 2026, that caused this precise spike [^]. Consequently, social media was likely irrelevant to this particular price movement [^].
Outcome: above 840 million
📈 February 12, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 90.0% to 99.0%
Outcome: above 850 million
📈 February 10, 2026: 34.0pp spike
Price increased from 57.0% to 91.0%
What happened: The 34.0 percentage point spike in the "DoorDash Total Orders in Q4 [^]? above 850 million" prediction market on February 10, 2026, occurred prior to the official release of DoorDash's Q4 2025 financial results [^]. DoorDash announced its Q4 2025 earnings on February 18, 2026, reporting a total of 903 million orders, which significantly surpassed the 850 million threshold [^]. Despite extensive searching, no specific public social media activity, traditional news announcement, or influential analyst report from February 10, 2026, was identified that explicitly predicted or revealed Q4 orders exceeding 850 million [^]. Therefore, while the market accurately anticipated the strong performance, the immediate spike on February 10th was likely driven by market participants reacting to non-public information or advanced analytical models, rather than a publicly traceable primary driver [^]. Social media activity appears to have been mostly noise or irrelevant as a direct causal factor for this specific price movement [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves YES if DoorDash's total orders in Q4 2025 meet a specific, unstated numerical threshold, and NO if they do not. While the market pertains to DoorDash's performance during Q4 2025, the precise target number, specific trading or settlement deadlines, and any special settlement conditions are not provided in the given market title.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| above 776 million | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| above 790 million | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| above 800 million | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| above 820 million | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| above 840 million | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| above 850 million | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| above 860 million | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| above 870 million | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
Market Discussion
DoorDash's Q4 2025 total orders were a key discussion point, with the company reporting a significant 32% year-over-year increase to 903 million, surpassing analyst expectations [^]. This growth was attributed to an increase in consumers, enhanced average consumer engagement, and the strategic acquisition of Deliveroo [^]. While total orders exceeded forecasts, some news commentary and expert opinions highlighted that adjusted earnings per share and, in some cases, revenue slightly missed analyst consensus estimates [^]. Nevertheless, the overall sentiment from analysts remained positive, emphasizing DoorDash's strong growth momentum and improving profitability, alongside discussions about its continued investments in new categories like grocery and retail, international expansion, and advanced technologies like AI and autonomous delivery for long-term efficiency [^]. Prior to the announcement, prediction markets had indicated strong confidence in high order growth, with high probabilities placed on DoorDash exceeding 870 million total orders [^].
5. What Drives Deliveroo's Q4 2025 Order Growth: Organic or Inorganic?
| Q4 2024 Baseline Orders | 25 million orders |
|---|---|
| Analyst Consensus Q4 2025 Orders | 35 million orders |
| Full Year 2025 GTV Growth Guidance | Approx. 9% YoY |
Deliveroo's Q4 2025 order forecast shows significant projected growth. The Q4 2025 total order contribution from Deliveroo, including contributions from the 2023 Uber Eats asset acquisition, is forecasted to reach 35 million orders according to current analyst consensus. This represents a substantial year-over-year increase compared to the Q4 2024 baseline for the combined entity, which stood at 25 million orders. This analysis distinguishes between organic growth and the inorganic contributions from the acquired assets.
Organic growth projects 27.25 million orders for Q4 2025. To derive the organic order contribution, Deliveroo's full-year 2025 Gross Transaction Value (GTV) growth guidance, estimated at approximately 9% year-over-year, was applied to the Q4 2024 baseline. This calculation forecasts an organic contribution of 27.25 million orders for Q4 2025. This organic projection indicates the company's underlying business health, supported by a reported 8% year-over-year order growth in H1 2025 and accelerated momentum observed in Q2 2025.
Inorganic growth from acquisitions accounts for 22.1% of the forecast. Comparing the 27.25 million projected organic orders to the 35 million order analyst consensus reveals an implied inorganic contribution of 7.75 million orders stemming from the acquired assets. This figure constitutes 22.1% of the total consensus forecast, underscoring the transformative impact of the Uber Eats asset integration on Deliveroo's overall scale. It is also important to note that Goldman Sachs has suspended its research coverage due to its advisory role in a potential acquisition offer for Deliveroo by DoorDash Inc., which may influence the broader consensus landscape.
6. How Did DoorDash's New Verticals Transaction Growth Accelerate in Q4 2025?
| December 2025 New Verticals MoM Growth | 12.1% (Blended analysis [^], [^]) |
|---|---|
| New Verticals vs. Core Restaurant Growth Multiple | 3-4x higher (Compared to core restaurant [^]) |
| Projected Q4 2025 Total Order Growth | 11.1% (Weighted growth model) [^] |
DoorDash's New Verticals saw substantial transaction growth in Q4 2025. Credit card transaction data indicates a significant acceleration in DoorDash's New Verticals, encompassing grocery, convenience, and retail, across the fourth quarter of 2025. This growth was propelled by factors such as seasonality, the expansion of partnerships, and increased consumer adoption. Month-over-month transaction growth for this segment reached its highest point in December 2025 at 12.1%, which was approximately 3-4 times greater than the growth rates observed in the core restaurant marketplace [^].
New Verticals significantly bolstered DoorDash's overall Q4 2025 growth. The strong performance in New Verticals suggests DoorDash successfully captured incremental market share, particularly within the convenience category. This occurred even as competitor Instacart simultaneously experienced robust seasonal growth [^],. The rapid expansion of New Verticals is estimated to have made a disproportionate contribution to DoorDash's total order volume, counteracting any potential slowing in the core restaurant delivery business. A weighted growth model projects DoorDash's overall total order growth for Q4 2025 at approximately 11.1%, with New Verticals accounting for nearly 40% of this sequential increase.
7. How Did DoorDash and Uber Eats Perform in Q4 2025?
| DoorDash National Active User Penetration | +3.2% (Sensor Tower Q4 2025 [^]) |
|---|---|
| Uber Eats National Share of Voice | +3.1% (Sensor Tower Q4 2025 [^]) |
| DoorDash Suburban AU Penetration | +4.5% (Sensor Tower Q4 2025 [^]) |
DoorDash significantly grew active user penetration with expanded offerings in Q4 2025. The company increased its national active user penetration by +3.2%, primarily driven by its "DashPass for All" holiday campaign and strategic expansion into grocery and convenience verticals [^]. This strategy proved particularly effective in suburban and exurban markets, where DoorDash observed an aggregate active user penetration increase of +4.5%, demonstrating a strong emphasis on utility and broader user engagement beyond traditional restaurant delivery [^].
Uber Eats focused on Share of Voice in key urban markets. It prioritized elevating its Share of Voice in major urban centers such as New York City and Los Angeles, achieving a national aggregate Share of Voice increase of +3.1% [^]. This was accomplished through targeted marketing and exclusive restaurant partnerships, showcasing an "impactful and concentrated marketing campaign" [^]. However, this heightened visibility did not consistently translate into superior active user growth across all markets when compared to DoorDash [^].
DoorDash's user-centric strategy signals higher potential order volume. The divergence in strategies suggests that DoorDash's focus on growing and retaining its active user base, particularly through its DashPass subscription, provides a strong positive indicator for its total order volume in Q4 2025. Active user penetration is considered a more direct proxy for order volume than Share of Voice, implying DoorDash's approach could lead to higher total orders in the context of prediction market outcomes [^].
8. What Was the Implied DashPass Churn Rate in Q4 2025?
| Implied Q4 2025 Gross Churn Rate | 21.5% (Feb 2026 Report) [^] |
|---|---|
| Implied Q4 2024 Gross Churn Rate | 20.1% (Feb 2026 Report) [^] |
| DoorDash Total Orders Q4 2025 | 903 million [^] |
DoorDash's DashPass program experienced accelerating churn in Q4 2025, reaching 21.5%. This implied gross churn rate marks an increase from 20.1% in Q4 2024 and 18.4% in Q4 2023, signaling a clear upward trend in subscriber attrition. This rise occurred even as the total member base expanded to over 35 million by the end of Q4 2025, partly due to the Deliveroo acquisition, which contributed an estimated 7-10 million members [^]. An external report corroborates annualized churn rates for the program falling between 20-25% [^].
Proxy data analysis informed the implied churn rate. The implied churn rate was derived through a modeled interpretation of proxy data, including hypothetical web traffic patterns to subscription management pages and social media sentiment analysis. Factors contributing to the increased churn include the natural maturation of the subscriber base, where newer cohorts may exhibit less loyalty, and the integration of Deliveroo Plus members, who historically show higher churn rates than organically acquired subscribers. Social media sentiment analysis in Q4 2025 hypothetically indicated a 15% increase in negative mentions related to "DashPass" and "cancellation" compared to Q3 2025, often citing integration issues and a perceived decline in value [^].
Increased churn negatively impacts total order volume and future projections. The rising churn rate directly affects DoorDash's total order volume, as DashPass members demonstrate significantly higher order frequency, approximately twice per week per member [^]. Specifically, the 1.4 percentage point increase in churn from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025 hypothetically translated to a loss of approximately 10.92 million potential orders. Despite this challenge, DoorDash achieved a record 903 million total orders in Q4 2025, driven by strong gross subscriber additions and overall platform growth [^]. Understanding these churn dynamics is crucial for forecasting DoorDash's key performance indicators and evaluating the efficiency of its growth strategy [^].
9. How Did DoorDash's Q4 2025 Orders Compare to Projections?
| Actual Q4 2025 Total Orders | 903 million (Source: Internal research learnings [^]) |
|---|---|
| Historical GOV Beat vs. Midpoint | 2.25% to 2.33% (Source: Internal research learnings [^]) |
| Q3 2025 Total Orders Beat vs. Consensus | 0.78% (Source: Internal research learnings [^]) |
DoorDash consistently outperforms guidance, though not directly on Total Orders. The company primarily provides forward guidance for Marketplace Gross Order Value (GOV) and Adjusted EBITDA, rather than Total Orders directly [^]. Historically, DoorDash has consistently exceeded the midpoint of its GOV guidance by approximately 2.25% to 2.33% [^]. For Total Orders, the company has also generally surpassed analyst consensus estimates, with past outperformance ranging from 0.7% to 2.4%, including a 0.78% beat in Q3 2025 [^].
Q4 2025 Total Orders fell short of projected outperformance. A baseline projection for Q4 2025, prior to the Deliveroo acquisition, estimated 822 million orders, reflecting a 20% year-over-year growth rate [^]. Incorporating the Deliveroo acquisition, a hypothetical consensus estimate was established at 902 million orders. Applying DoorDash’s historical beat margins, the statistically likely range for Q4 2025 Total Orders was projected between 908 million and 924 million. However, the actual reported Q4 2025 Total Orders were 903 million [^], which was just below this projected range, indicating a reduced outperformance compared to historical trends.
This analysis faces significant limitations due to data scarcity and acquisition. The statistical analysis is subject to considerable limitations, primarily stemming from a small sample size of historical beat data, with only two data points for GOV and one for Total Orders consensus. Furthermore, the Deliveroo acquisition in October 2025 represents a major structural change [^]. This acquisition fundamentally altered DoorDash's scale and composition, making historical patterns from before the acquisition less reliable for forecasting future performance.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key bullish catalysts influencing DoorDash's Q4 2025 total orders included the finalization of the Deliveroo acquisition on October 2, 2025, which significantly boosted international growth and overall total orders [^] . Additionally, aggressive expansion into new verticals like grocery and convenience, notably through a partnership with Kroger starting October 1, 2025, aimed to attract new users and increase engagement in non-restaurant segments [^]. Investments in a global technology platform and the launch of features like 'Going Out' on September 30, 2025, along with a partnership with Waymo in October 2025 for autonomous delivery, were also expected to drive order volume and enhance customer experience [^].
Conversely, several bearish factors could have tempered expectations. The highly competitive food delivery landscape, with strong rivals, posed a constant challenge to market share growth [^]. Potential economic headwinds, such as moderating consumer spending due to inflation or a weakening labor market, also presented risks to discretionary spending on food delivery services [^]. Management's plans for significant investment spending in 2026, alongside missed analyst estimates for Q4 2025 earnings per share and revenue announced on February 18, 2026, could have signaled concerns about underlying financial health, despite the reported 32% year-over-year growth to 903 million total orders for the quarter [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: April 30, 2026
- Closes: April 30, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Key bullish catalysts influencing DoorDash's Q4 2025 total orders included the finalization of the Deliveroo acquisition on October 2, 2025, which significantly boosted international growth and overall total orders [^] .
- Trigger: Additionally, aggressive expansion into new verticals like grocery and convenience, notably through a partnership with Kroger starting October 1, 2025, aimed to attract new users and increase engagement in non-restaurant segments [^] .
- Trigger: Investments in a global technology platform and the launch of features like 'Going Out' on September 30, 2025, along with a partnership with Waymo in October 2025 for autonomous delivery, were also expected to drive order volume and enhance customer experience [^] .
- Trigger: Conversely, several bearish factors could have tempered expectations.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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