Short Answer
Both the model and the market favor Above 200 billion at approximately 99% probability.
1. Executive Verdict
- Coinbase Q4 2025 client trading volume data is not yet public.
- Coinbase maintained stable market share despite global spot market contraction.
- Coinbase derivatives are projected for significant notional volume growth in Q4 2025.
- Base significantly contributed to Coinbase's Subscription and Services revenue in Q4 2025.
- December 2025 saw significant market turbulence; Bitcoin corrected sharply.
- Official Coinbase Q4 2025 financial results release is a key catalyst.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 270 billion | 21% | 20.5% | Bitcoin's Q4 price surge and ETF anticipation boosted Coinbase trading volume. |
| Above 280 billion | 10% | 7% | Bitcoin's Q4 price surge and ETF anticipation boosted Coinbase trading volume. |
| Above 300 billion | 3% | 0.8% | Bitcoin's Q4 price surge and ETF anticipation boosted Coinbase trading volume. |
| Above 290 billion | 3% | 0.9% | Bitcoin's Q4 price surge and ETF anticipation boosted Coinbase trading volume. |
| Above 260 billion | 89% | 88.5% | Bitcoin's Q4 price surge and ETF anticipation boosted Coinbase trading volume. |
Current Context
Coinbase's Q4 2025 earnings release is highly anticipated amidst market volatility. The company is scheduled to release its Q4 2025 financial results on Thursday, February 12, 2026, after market close, followed by an earnings call. Ahead of this, Coinbase’s stock dropped more than 8% on February 5, 2026, attributed by an analyst to expected Q4 weakness in transaction volume compared to Q3. This contributes to a broader discussion around whether to "buy the dip" after the stock's 46% decline over the past three months, driven by falling crypto prices and a risk-off investment environment. Key data points in focus include Q4 2025 trading volume, with a Kalshi market tracking whether it will exceed $270 billion. Analysts project Q4 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS) to be around $0.83, with some forecasts reaching $1.06,, and consensus revenue expectations are $1.8616 billion. A significant concern is the predicted roughly 50% drop in quarterly profit, with an expected profit of $1.01 per share, down from $2.04 in the same quarter last year.
Analysts and management emphasize revenue diversification given crypto market volatility. While BTIG analysts reduced their price target for Coinbase, they still view current share levels as an attractive entry point, noting the company's efforts to diversify revenue beyond "volatile" transaction revenues,. Management has provided guidance expecting Q4 subscription and services revenue between $710 million and $790 million, a segment considered crucial for offsetting the volatility of transaction revenue. Coinbase Institutional's "Charting Crypto Q4 2025" report expressed a "cautiously optimistic stance" for Q4 2025, citing resilient liquidity and supportive regulatory dynamics, though only 21% of surveyed institutions believed the market was in a bull phase. The overall Wall Street consensus for Coinbase remains a "Moderate Buy," with an average target price of $356.27. Common concerns include the potential impact of regulatory scrutiny, particularly as Coinbase expands into prediction markets, the success of revenue diversification strategies, and the broader crypto market downturn,, which is impacting institutional investor sentiment,.
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has exhibited a sustained, gradual upward trend throughout its trading history. Opening with a perceived probability of just 10.0%, the contract price has more than doubled to its current level of 21.0%. This indicates a steadily growing belief among participants that Coinbase's Q4 2025 trading volume will ultimately exceed the resolution threshold. The price progression has been methodical rather than volatile, climbing to a peak of 24.0%, which has since served as a key resistance level that the market has not been able to surpass. The overall price action reflects a significant and long-term positive shift in sentiment from the market's inception.
The market's resilience in the face of recent negative news is a critical observation. Despite an 8% drop in Coinbase's stock price on February 5, 2026, which was explicitly linked by an analyst to expected weakness in Q4 transaction volume, this prediction market has maintained its position near its all-time high. This divergence suggests that traders in this specific market are either discounting the analyst's concerns, or believe that even a "weaker" Q4 could still produce volume high enough to satisfy the contract's terms. The high total traded volume of 68,066 contracts indicates substantial market interest and conviction behind the price levels. The 24.0% price point remains the primary resistance, while the upward trendline provides underlying support.
Overall, the chart suggests a market sentiment that is cautiously optimistic and appears to be unswayed by short-term pessimism affecting the equity markets. While a 21.0% probability still implies the outcome is more likely to be "No" than "Yes," the significant appreciation from the 10.0% starting point shows a clear and consistent shift in opinion toward the affirmative. The market's behavior indicates that participants are focusing strictly on the raw volume data point, and their analysis leads them to believe the probability of a high-volume quarter is greater than what recent news or the company's stock performance might otherwise suggest.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 January 30, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 9.0%
Outcome: Above 290 billion
What happened: The 8.0 percentage point spike in the "Coinbase trading volume in Q4?" prediction market on January 30, 2026, was primarily driven by a significant increase in overall cryptocurrency market trading activity. On that day, the total crypto trading volume stood at $207 billion, described as "notably higher than in the previous days," even amidst a decline in overall crypto market capitalization. This surge in market-wide trading volume, which included a roughly 45% increase in daily spot sell volume for Bitcoin between January 29 and February 2, 2026, likely fueled expectations for Coinbase's own Q4 2025 trading volume to exceed $290 billion. Social media activity from key figures or viral narratives directly attributing to this specific prediction market spike was not identified. Social media was: (d) irrelevant.
📉 January 23, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 14.0% to 6.0%
Outcome: Above 290 billion
What happened: The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point drop in the "Coinbase trading volume in Q4?" prediction market on January 23, 2026, was a series of analyst downgrades and widespread concerns regarding Coinbase's projected Q4 2025 revenue and trading volume. Analysts predicted a 4% miss in Coinbase's Q4 2025 revenue, specifically in trading and subscription services, which directly impacted market sentiment about the likelihood of high trading volumes. These concerns, along with declining stablecoin revenue and broader crypto market anxieties, caused Coinbase's stock to fall approximately 2% on the same day. While social media reflected the overall cautious market sentiment, no specific viral narratives or posts from key figures were identified as the leading cause of this targeted price movement. Social media was: (c) mostly noise.
📈 January 22, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 4.0% to 14.0%
Outcome: Above 290 billion
What happened: The primary driver of the 10.0 percentage point spike in the "Coinbase trading volume in Q4?" prediction market on January 22, 2026, was likely the traditional news announcement of the SEC dismissing a civil enforcement action against Genesis Global Capital, LLC, and Gemini Trust Company, LLC on that same day. This resolution of a significant regulatory issue for a major crypto entity likely instilled broader confidence in the cryptocurrency market, leading prediction market participants to anticipate higher trading volumes for Coinbase in Q4 2025. While no direct social media posts from influential figures about Coinbase's Q4 volume were identified, this positive regulatory development served as a significant positive signal for the crypto industry, preceding Coinbase's actual Q4 2025 earnings release scheduled for February 12, 2026. Therefore, traditional news acted as the primary driver.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market pertains to Coinbase's trading volume during Q4 2025. The provided content does not specify the exact conditions for a YES or NO resolution, nor does it detail any key dates, deadlines, or special settlement conditions.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 200 billion | $1.00 | $0.02 | 100% |
| Above 220 billion | $1.00 | $0.02 | 100% |
| Above 240 billion | $1.00 | $0.03 | 100% |
| Above 260 billion | $0.89 | $0.12 | 89% |
| Above 270 billion | $0.21 | $0.80 | 21% |
| Above 280 billion | $0.10 | $0.96 | 10% |
| Above 310 billion | $0.05 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Above 290 billion | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Above 300 billion | $0.03 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Above 320 billion | $0.03 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Above 330 billion | $0.03 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Above 350 billion | $0.03 | $1.00 | 3% |
Market Discussion
Discussions surrounding Coinbase's Q4 2025 trading volume primarily revolve around whether market optimism for a strengthening crypto environment, as predicted by Coinbase's own research, will materialize against a backdrop of broader bearish institutional sentiment and macroeconomic pressures . While Coinbase's Q4 2025 earnings are anticipated to show largely flat revenue compared to the previous year and a projected 50% drop in quarterly profit, there is ongoing debate about the success of its strategic shift towards diversifying revenue streams through subscriptions, derivatives, and new products like prediction markets to reduce reliance on volatile transaction fees . Prediction markets are even tracking if Coinbase's Q4 2025 trading volume will exceed $270 billion.
5. What Is Coinbase's Expected Q4 2025 Volume Segmentation?
| Coinbase Q4 2025 Results Release | February 12, 2026 |
|---|---|
| Q3 2025 Total Trading Volume | $295 billion |
| Avg. 2025 Inst:Retail Ratio | 1:4.14 (average Q1-Q3 2025 from ) |
Coinbase's Q4 2025 client trading volume data is not yet public. Official, verified trading volume data, segmented by client type, for Coinbase's Q4 2025 (ending December 31, 2025) has not yet been publicly released by the company. Coinbase is scheduled to publish its Q4 and full-year 2025 financial results, including specific client type volume data, on February 12, 2026. This forthcoming data is crucial for understanding Coinbase's market health and revenue composition, as retail trades are executed against a significantly higher fee schedule than institutional trades.
Historical data reveals consistent institutional dominance in trading volume. Historical analysis from Q1 2024 through Q3 2025 consistently shows profound institutional dominance, with institutional volume accounting for approximately 78% to 82% of total trading volume. The institutional-to-retail multiple has remained within a stable band of ~3.7x to ~4.6x. Despite absolute volume fluctuations correlated with broader market cycles, the relative ratio of retail-to-institutional volume has maintained stability, fluctuating between ~0.219 and ~0.272.
The average institutional-to-retail ratio serves as a key benchmark. The average institutional-to-retail trading volume ratio for the first three quarters of 2025 was approximately 1:4.14 (derived from ), which translates to a retail-to-institutional ratio of ~0.24. This serves as a critical benchmark, and any significant deviation from this ~0.24 ratio upon the Q4 2025 data release will indicate shifts in client participation. A higher ratio would suggest stronger retail engagement relative to institutions, potentially boosting transaction revenue margins, while a lower ratio would point to deepening institutional dominance.
6. How Did Coinbase's Global Spot Market Share Evolve in Q4 2025?
| Q4 2025 CEX Spot Volume Decline | 49% from October to December |
|---|---|
| Coinbase Q4 Spot Market Share | 5-6% |
| Binance December Spot Market Share | 32.5% |
Coinbase maintained stable market share despite significant Q4 2025 contraction. The global cryptocurrency spot market experienced a substantial contraction in Q4 2025, with centralized exchange volumes plummeting by 49% from October to December. During this market downturn, Coinbase sustained a relatively stable spot market share, consistently hovering around 5-6% of global volume for most of the quarter. However, its ranking by spot volume slipped to #5 in December, falling behind competitors such as HTX and Gate.
Coinbase is strategically shifting beyond spot trading to new growth areas. This performance should be understood within Coinbase's ongoing strategic pivot to evolve into a comprehensive global financial platform, moving beyond its traditional reliance on spot trading. While its spot ranking saw a decline, the company is actively expanding its focus to higher-growth areas, including significant growth in its international derivatives exchange and plans for new offerings like tokenized equities. Furthermore, Coinbase's qualitative strength, as evidenced by a Kaiko Q3 2025 ranking of #3 with a score of 80 for governance, security, and technology, underscores its institutional-grade infrastructure and trustworthiness.
7. What Was Coinbase's Projected Derivatives Performance in Q4 2025?
| Projected Q4 2025 Notional Derivatives Volume | $1.05 trillion to $1.20 trillion |
|---|---|
| Projected Q4 2025 Derivatives Transaction Revenue | $170 million to $190 million |
| Projected Q4 2025 Share of Total Transaction Revenue | 15% to 16.5% |
Coinbase derivatives project significant Q4 2025 notional volume growth. The company's derivatives segment is estimated to achieve a total notional volume between $1.05 trillion and $1.20 trillion in Q4 2025. This projection represents a substantial increase from the $840 billion reported in Q3 2025. This surge is primarily driven by the explosive expansion of the Coinbase International Exchange, which saw a 6200% increase in average daily trading volume during 2025 and recorded its best performance in December. The strategic acquisition of Deribit also played a significant role, contributing $52 million in institutional transaction revenue during Q3 2025.
Derivatives segment revenue is growing, enhancing company's financial importance. This robust volume growth is expected to translate into projected derivatives transaction revenue of approximately $170 million to $190 million for Q4 2025. Based on a calculated Q3 2025 implied take rate of 1.61 basis points and extrapolated total transaction revenue guidance, the derivatives segment is anticipated to contribute between 15% and 16.5% of Coinbase's total transaction revenue for the quarter. This marks an increase from the approximately 13.5% contribution observed in Q3 2025, highlighting the increasing financial importance of derivatives to Coinbase's overall business. Furthermore, the company launched regulated U.S. offerings through Coinbase Financial Markets in November 2025, laying the groundwork for future growth in a crucial market.
8. Does Base's Revenue Cannibalize Coinbase's Centralized Exchange Volume?
| Base Q4 2025 Sequencer Revenue | $30.16 million |
|---|---|
| Base Q4 Revenue Contribution to Sub & Services | ~4.04% |
| Coinbase CEX Trading Volume Q4 2025 | Above $270 billion |
Base significantly contributed to Coinbase's Q4 2025 'Subscription and Services' revenue. Estimated on-chain sequencer fee revenue from Base for Q4 2025 reached $30.16 million, representing approximately 4.04% of Coinbase's total 'Subscription and Services' revenue of $746 million for that quarter. This income stream is generated from processing over 8 million daily transactions and $3 trillion in stablecoin volume on the Base network. It represents a crucial component of Coinbase's diversification efforts, offering a high-margin, technologically-driven revenue source that operates independently of core centralized exchange trading fees. This quarterly figure also constitutes a significant portion of Base's $75.4 million year-to-date on-chain revenue for 2025.
Base's growth shows minimal evidence of cannibalizing CEX trading volume. Analysis for Q4 2025 indicates that Base's expansion did not divert activity from Coinbase's core centralized exchange (CEX). The CEX, with projected trading volumes exceeding $270 billion, primarily caters to fiat-to-crypto transactions and institutional engagements involving major cryptocurrencies. In contrast, Base's on-chain activities, including substantial stablecoin movements totaling $3 trillion, are utilized for high-frequency decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible token (NFT), and other on-chain native applications. These distinct operational focuses suggest that the two platforms serve fundamentally different user segments and use cases, fostering a symbiotic relationship where Base expands the overall market within the Coinbase ecosystem rather than competing directly with existing CEX users.
9. What Were the Leading Indicators for Coinbase Q4 2025 Trading Volume?
| Bitcoin Price Correction | Approximately 45% from October 2025 high |
|---|---|
| U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows (Late Dec) | Around $5 billion |
| Coinbase Premium Index (December) | -0.08 |
December 2025 saw significant market turbulence for Coinbase. Bitcoin experienced a severe price correction of approximately 45% from its October 2025 high, settling between $70,000 and $88,000. This was largely driven by substantial U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, totaling around $5 billion in late December, which translated into concentrated selling pressure on Coinbase, indicated by a deeply negative Coinbase Premium of -0.08. Ethereum also showed bearish signs, with aggregate exchange reserves increasing by approximately 400,000 ETH, signaling rising sell-side pressure.
Underlying indicators, however, pointed to sustained long-term market strength. Despite institutional selling, aggregate Bitcoin reserves across all exchanges plummeted to multi-year lows of around 1.8 million BTC, indicating supply scarcity and accumulation by long-term holders. Regarding net flow to Coinbase Pro wallets, Glassnode's analysis of Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) for Bitcoin was "relatively constructive," suggesting persistent net buying from other U.S. participants. A similar net flow figure for Ethereum to Coinbase Pro wallets, as tracked by Glassnode, was not explicitly provided in the research. The market also demonstrated healthy deleveraging with balanced order book liquidity and reduced open interest in derivatives, establishing a more stable foundation.
Elevated user engagement and trading activity were strongly implied. While specific weekly web traffic data for pro.coinbase.com was unavailable, the intense market dynamics in December 2025 strongly imply elevated user engagement and trading activity. The significant price volatility, coupled with both substantial institutional selling and resilient opportunistic buying (as evidenced by Coinbase's constructive CVD ), would have driven frequent logins for position monitoring and trading. This confluence of factors, including the $9.4 billion in Q4 Ethereum ETF inflows and Bitcoin's dramatic drawdown, points towards very high trading volumes for Coinbase in Q4 2025, with a sustained positive Coinbase Premium and stabilized ETF flows serving as key indicators for a market reversal.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The "Coinbase trading volume in Q4?" prediction market will be primarily influenced by the official release of Coinbase's Q4 2025 financial results on February 12, 2026. Higher-than-expected trading volume, coupled with positive forward-looking statements from management, would act as a strong bullish catalyst. Further positive momentum could stem from a robust cryptocurrency market during Q4 2025, driven by increased institutional adoption, and favorable global regulatory clarity for stablecoins and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization.
Conversely, lower-than-expected Q4 2025 trading volume would push the "NO" probability higher. Bearish catalysts include negative macroeconomic headwinds, such as rising inflation or interest rates, leading to a "risk-off" market rotation. Increased regulatory scrutiny, unfavorable policy changes specifically targeting centralized exchanges, or major security breaches in the crypto space during Q4 2025 would also deter trading activity. The period of Q4 2025 itself, along with regulatory developments like revised UK cryptoasset regulations in late 2025 and early 2026, are critical to watch leading up to the March 3, 2026 settlement date.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 30, 2026
- Closes: March 03, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The "Coinbase trading volume in Q4?" prediction market will be primarily influenced by the official release of Coinbase's Q4 2025 financial results on February 12, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: Higher-than-expected trading volume, coupled with positive forward-looking statements from management, would act as a strong bullish catalyst.
- Trigger: Further positive momentum could stem from a robust cryptocurrency market during Q4 2025, driven by increased institutional adoption, and favorable global regulatory clarity for stablecoins and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization [^] .
- Trigger: Conversely, lower-than-expected Q4 2025 trading volume would push the "NO" probability higher.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 45 markets in this series
Outcomes: 17 resolved YES, 28 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXCBVOLUME-Q3-25-350: NO (Oct 31, 2025)
- KXCBVOLUME-Q3-25-320: NO (Oct 31, 2025)
- KXCBVOLUME-Q3-25-300: NO (Oct 31, 2025)
- KXCBVOLUME-Q3-25-280: YES (Oct 31, 2025)
- KXCBVOLUME-Q3-25-250: YES (Oct 31, 2025)
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