Which Companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Jersey Mike's to officially announce an IPO this year, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Top underwriting banks maintain a bullish 2026 IPO market outlook.
- Many top U.S. venture-backed companies have postponed IPOs.
- Early 2026 saw no major U.S. tech IPOs exceeding $500M.
- H1 2026 IPOs will favor private equity-backed companies over venture capital.
- Expected rate cuts and moderating inflation will boost investor confidence.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | 80.0% | 78.5% | SpaceX needs significant capital for ambitious projects like Starship and Mars colonization efforts. |
| Databricks | 38.0% | 65.1% | Databricks' strong growth in data and AI positions it as a prime candidate for a public offering. |
| Discord | 82.0% | 80.0% | Discord's massive user base and strong community platform make it an attractive IPO candidate. |
| Anthropic | 67.0% | 65.5% | Anthropic's rapid expansion in the AI sector suggests a public offering to fuel further growth. |
| OpenAI | 47.0% | 46.0% | OpenAI's unique ownership structure and recent leadership changes may delay an IPO decision. |
Current Context
The 2026 IPO market faces cautious optimism amid recent volatility. While several companies are poised for public debuts in policy-aligned and technologically advanced sectors, recent market volatility, valuation scrutiny, and concerns over AI disruption have led to adjustments in IPO plans. In the last seven days, Blackstone-backed Liftoff Mobile and Wall Street broker Clear Street postponed their U.S. listings, citing "current market conditions" [^], [^]. Brazilian fintech Agibank also completed a downsized $240 million U.S. IPO [^]. Despite these recent delays, the 2026 IPO market is cautiously reopening, with recalibrated valuations and a focus on policy-aligned sectors helping to restore investor confidence, primarily among high-performing companies [^], [^].
Strong market momentum and targeted sectors fuel 2026 IPO expectations. Investors widely expect 2026 to be a "big year" for U.S. public markets, driven by moderating inflation, anticipated interest rate cuts, and a significant backlog of IPO-ready companies, including over 800 "unicorns" [^], [^]. Investor appetite for new issuances has clearly returned, with strong interest in AI infrastructure (chips, data centers, power capacity), insurance and specialty risk, and software, particularly AI-enabled platforms [^], [^]. Other prominent sectors like space tech, crypto, fintech, and defense are also expected to remain important, alongside industrials and manufacturing [^], [^]. Experts, such as PwC US IPO Services Leader Mike Bellin, describe 2026's IPO window as "open but selective," favoring scaled, cash-generative companies with clear profitability paths [^]. A year-end survey of over 100 major institutional investors indicated a significant shift towards prioritizing growth over profitability, reaching nearly 60% by December 2025 [^].
Key companies prepare for IPOs despite ongoing market concerns. While specific dates remain confidential, high-profile companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX, Databricks, Canva, and Stripe are widely discussed as preparing for or targeting 2026 IPOs [^], [^], [^], [^]. Kraken confidentially filed an S-1 with the SEC in November 2025, with an IPO expected in the first half of 2026 [^], [^]. Other anticipated listings include Shein, Revolut, Discord, Cohesity, Plaid, Monzo, and Cerebras Systems [^], [^], [^]. However, common concerns persist, including market volatility, valuation scrutiny, and the impact of AI disruption, which has caused "new headaches for IPO hopefuls" by leading to "AI de-rating" for some software firms [^], [^]. High operating costs for AI companies, such as OpenAI's reported $12 billion loss last quarter, also present investor worries [^], [^]. Government delays and regulatory hurdles, exemplified by Shein, further contribute to uncertainty [^]. The sustained after-market performance of the 2026 IPO class will be crucial for the continued widening of the IPO window [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market for Cerebras announcing an IPO before 2027 exhibits a prolonged sideways or range-bound trend. Over 657 data points, the price has fluctuated between a support level of $0.73 and a resistance level of $0.90. The market opened at $0.77 and is currently trading at $0.76, indicating remarkable stability over the long term despite the wide trading range. While no specific significant price movements for Cerebras are detailed in the provided context, the overall price channel reflects the broader market environment of "cautious optimism." The inability of the price to sustain a move above the $0.90 resistance ceiling suggests that negative market-wide news, such as the noted IPO postponements by other companies due to volatility, has effectively capped bullish sentiment.
The total trading volume of 119,782 contracts suggests a reasonably active and liquid market. However, volume patterns appear inconsistent, which can indicate that conviction among traders ebbs and flows, with periods of high activity followed by quiet observation. This pattern supports the sideways price action, as there is no sustained buying or selling pressure to force a breakout from the established $0.73-$0.90 range. The market sentiment, as reflected by the current 76% probability, remains strongly positive that an IPO announcement will occur. Yet, the price action clearly indicates that this confidence is tempered by persistent uncertainty stemming from the macroeconomic factors affecting the entire IPO landscape, leading traders to price in a non-trivial risk of delay or cancellation.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: OpenAI
📉 February 20, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 48.0% to 39.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point drop in the "OpenAI" prediction market on February 20, 2026, was the widely reported news of OpenAI nearing the close of a massive private funding round, expected to exceed $100 billion and value the company at over $850 billion [^]. This substantial capital infusion, announced on February 19, 2026, likely reduced the immediate need for OpenAI to pursue an Initial Public Offering (IPO) in the near term, offering an alternative for funding its immense infrastructure requirements and continued operations, despite projections of significant losses until at least 2029 [^]. While social media activity wasn't identified as the direct cause of this specific drop, the prediction market already reflected "deep uncertainty" regarding an OpenAI IPO by year-end, which this news would have exacerbated [^]. Therefore, traditional news of the private funding round was the primary driver, coinciding with and reinforcing existing skepticism about a 2026 IPO [^].
Outcome: Databricks
📉 February 16, 2026: 13.0pp drop
Price decreased from 47.0% to 34.0%
What happened: The 13.0 percentage point drop in Databricks' IPO prediction market price on February 16, 2026, was primarily driven by cautious statements from the company's CEO regarding IPO timing [^]. On February 9, 2026, Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi, while announcing a $5 billion funding round at a $134 billion valuation, stated that the company is IPO-ready but "will stay private if market correction continues" [^]. This conditional stance, disseminated through traditional news outlets, introduced significant uncertainty regarding a 2026 IPO, leading to a decline in market confidence [^]. By February 16, this sentiment was reflected in prediction markets, which indicated a significantly reduced probability for a near-term Databricks IPO, with some reports showing a 98% chance of no IPO by mid-year [^]. Social media activity, such as a Bloomberg ETF analyst's post on February 12, 2026, about Databricks applying for 2x stock ETFs, was mostly noise, as it did not directly contribute to the drop in IPO probability for the current year [^].
📉 February 15, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 53.0% to 45.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point drop in Databricks' "Which Companies will officially announce an IPO this year?" prediction market on February 15, 2026, appears to be social media activity preceding the move [^]. On February 12, 2026, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X (formerly Twitter) that Databricks, along with other private companies, had applied for 2x stock ETFs, noting these companies were "waiting for IPOs" [^]. This statement from a credible market analyst, appearing three days before the price drop, likely led to speculation that Databricks might be pursuing alternative public market exposure through ETFs, potentially delaying or reducing the immediate likelihood of a traditional IPO announcement in 2026 [^]. This social media activity was the primary driver [^].
Outcome: Anthropic
📈 February 13, 2026: 11.0pp spike
Price increased from 61.0% to 72.0%
What happened: The 11.0 percentage point spike in Anthropic's prediction market price on February 13, 2026, was primarily driven by the official announcement of a substantial $30 billion Series G funding round, which valued the company at $380 billion post-money [^]. This news, initially released by Anthropic on its newsroom on February 12, 2026, and subsequently reported by major financial outlets on February 13, 2026, explicitly highlighted that the funding was likely the final round before a potential Initial Public Offering (IPO) in the second half of 2026 [^]. The increased valuation and strong indications of IPO readiness from traditional news sources appeared to lead and coincide with the price movement, serving as the primary driver [^]. Social media likely acted as a contributing accelerant by disseminating this key traditional news [^].
Outcome: SpaceX
📉 February 12, 2026: 13.0pp drop
Price decreased from 86.0% to 73.0%
What happened: The 13.0 percentage point drop in SpaceX's "Will officially announce an IPO this year?" prediction market on February 12, 2026, was primarily driven by news of a corporate reorganization at xAI, which had recently merged with SpaceX, alongside reports of key co-founder departures from xAI [^]. On February 12, 2026, The Japan Times reported on Elon Musk overhauling xAI's management, noting that this followed the departure of several co-founders and "raising questions about stability" [^]. Musk's statements regarding the reorganization and suitability of co-founders for the company's later stages were conveyed via "video footage posted by the company on X" [^]. This social media activity, coinciding with the price movement, amplified concerns about internal stability and leadership changes within the newly merged entity, potentially impacting the perceived certainty or attractiveness of an impending IPO [^]. Social media was a primary driver, as direct statements and video footage posted on X by the company and Elon Musk regarding the xAI reorganization and co-founder departures coincided with the price drop, explicitly raising questions about stability [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The Kalshi market 'kxipo-26' concerns which companies officially announce an Initial Public Offering (IPO) during the year 2026. A YES resolution occurs if one or more companies officially announce an IPO within the calendar year 2026, and a NO resolution occurs if no companies do. The market's timeframe is strictly limited to the year 2026; no specific deadlines or special settlement conditions are detailed in the provided content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jersey Mike's | $0.87 | $0.17 | 87% |
| Discord | $0.82 | $0.22 | 82% |
| Cerebras | $0.81 | $0.22 | 81% |
| SpaceX | $0.80 | $0.23 | 80% |
| Anthropic | $0.67 | $0.36 | 67% |
| Kraken | $0.66 | $0.36 | 66% |
| Deel | $0.53 | $0.53 | 53% |
| OpenAI | $0.47 | $0.55 | 47% |
| Databricks | $0.38 | $0.66 | 38% |
| Skims | $0.37 | $0.66 | 37% |
| Shein | $0.32 | $0.71 | 32% |
| Airwallex | $0.27 | $0.77 | 27% |
| Applied Intuition | $0.25 | $0.77 | 25% |
| Ripple Labs | $0.22 | $0.82 | 22% |
| Anduril | $0.21 | $0.80 | 21% |
| Stripe | $0.21 | $0.83 | 21% |
| Beast Industries | $0.20 | $0.85 | 20% |
| Rippling | $0.20 | $0.84 | 20% |
| Plaid | $0.19 | $0.84 | 19% |
| Ramp | $0.19 | $0.83 | 19% |
| Vanta | $0.17 | $0.87 | 17% |
| Glean | $0.16 | $0.89 | 16% |
| Anysphere (Cursor) | $0.14 | $0.88 | 14% |
| Celonis | $0.14 | $0.89 | 14% |
| Mistral AI | $0.13 | $0.91 | 13% |
| xAI | $0.08 | $0.96 | 8% |
| Brex | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
Market Discussion
There is widespread discussion and debate regarding a potentially strong year for Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in 2026, driven by an improving macroeconomic environment, stabilizing interest rates, and a significant backlog of private companies ready to go public [^]. Many experts and market commentators anticipate a "blockbuster pipeline" of high-quality issuances, with particular excitement surrounding companies in the AI, fintech, and space technology sectors [^]. Key companies frequently mentioned as likely IPO candidates include SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, and Canva, with SpaceX often cited as the most anticipated and potentially largest IPO [^]. While there's strong investor appetite for these offerings, some social media discussions and expert opinions express caution about the high valuations and "cash burn" of certain AI companies, and whether companies staying private longer will offer significant growth opportunities to public investors [^].
5. How Do Top Banks Advise IPOs Amidst Sustained VIX Volatility?
| Goldman Sachs 2026 IPO Projection | $160 billion [^] |
|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs Q1 VIX Impact | 30-40% of deal volume deferred [^] |
| BofA US GDP Forecast | 2.4% [^] |
Top underwriting banks maintain a bullish 2026 IPO market outlook. A fundamentally optimistic view for the 2026 IPO market is supported by a robust pipeline and strong macroeconomic tailwinds [^]. Goldman Sachs, for example, projects record U.S. IPO proceeds of $160 billion for the year [^]. However, a sustained CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) above 20 for more than 30 consecutive days acts as a critical "VIX Veto," leading banks to advise a temporary pause on most IPOs until market stability returns [^]. This measure is taken to prevent launching deals into a fearful market, which could result in "broken IPOs" and reputational damage [^].
High volatility shifts IPO strategy, prioritizing quality and preparedness. In such a high-VIX environment, the market experiences a dramatic "flight to quality," favoring "must-have" companies with strong fundamentals in resilient sectors like AI, software, and healthcare, often requiring revised valuations [^]. The strategic focus from banks shifts from market timing to ensuring "state of readiness," advising clients to have all necessary documentation prepared to launch opportunistically when a volatility window opens [^]. While this may involve accepting lower valuations or smaller deal sizes [^], banks confirm that the underlying 2026 IPO pipeline remains strong. Deferred deals are expected to simply push into later quarters of 2026 or early 2027, potentially leading to a more condensed issuance calendar once stability returns [^]. This long-term optimism is further fueled by anticipated interest rate cuts, economic growth, and a significant pent-up supply of mature companies ready to go public [^].
6. Why Are Top U.S. Venture-Backed IPOs Being Postponed or Withdrawn?
| IPO Withdrawal/Postponement Rate | Approximately 18% (as of June 1, 2026, per analysis) [^] |
|---|---|
| H2 2025 S-1 Filers (top cohort) | 22 companies (from top 50 U.S [^]. venture-backed cohort) [^] |
| Institutional Investor Focus on Growth | Surged to nearly 60% by Dec 2025 (from 28% in Dec 2024) [^] |
A significant percentage of top U.S. companies postponed IPOs. Approximately 18% of the top 50 U.S. venture-backed private companies valued over $5 billion, which confidentially filed Form S-1 with the SEC in the latter half of 2025, have since formally withdrawn their offering or publicly announced a postponement as of June 1, 2026. This translates to 4 out of 22 such filers, indicating a capital market still grappling with persistent valuation sensitivity and volatility despite a perceived reopening of the IPO window. Companies typically delay due to a complex interplay of their own readiness, prevailing investor appetite, and broader macroeconomic uncertainties [^].
Market volatility and selective investor sentiment challenge IPOs. The current environment presents mixed signals: anticipated interest rate declines throughout 2026 are expected to bolster IPO activity by supporting higher valuations and reducing capital costs [^]. However, persistent pockets of market volatility and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to trigger delays. Investor sentiment, though recovered, remains highly selective, with nearly 60% of institutional investors by December 2025 prioritizing growth but applying stricter scrutiny to valuations [^]. This often creates a mismatch between private valuations and public market willingness, compelling companies to postpone offerings rather than accept less favorable down-round IPOs [^].
Sectoral strength and regulatory changes support future IPOs. Favorable dynamics in key sectors like AI infrastructure, fintech, healthcare, and industrials are attracting strong investor interest, making it easier for companies in these fields to proceed [^]. Additionally, an increasingly conducive regulatory environment, including anticipated SEC deregulation, is streamlining the issuance process and encouraging U.S. listings, as evidenced by a 54% increase in U.S. IPOs in 2025 [^], [^]. This broader market recovery suggests that many postponed IPOs are likely to return to market when conditions more closely align with their valuation expectations.
7. What is the State of the Early 2026 U.S. Tech IPO Market?
| Qualifying Tech IPOs > $500M | None as of February 20, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO) 1-Month Return | -2.2% (as of Jan 31, 2026) [^] |
| York Space Systems (YSS) IPO Performance | +17.9% (Jan 28 - Feb 19, 2026) [^] |
No qualifying U.S. tech IPOs exceeding $500 million have occurred in 2026. As of February 20, 2026, no U.S. technology companies have completed an IPO raising over $500 million, despite the broader market seeing 20 IPOs raise a total of $6.6 billion year-to-date [^]. In the absence of qualifying tech IPOs, analysis focused on three large offerings from adjacent or tech-enabled sectors. These included Forgent Power Solutions, which raised $1.512 billion [^]; EquipmentShare.com, which raised $747 million [^]; and York Space Systems, raising $629 million [^].
Proxy IPO aftermarket performance has shown significant variation. Individual offerings among these proxy IPOs demonstrated divergent aftermarket results. York Space Systems significantly outperformed with a +17.9% return from its IPO date to February 19, 2026 [^], while Forgent Power Solutions experienced a -2.8% decline over a similar period [^]. This contrasts with the Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO), which recorded a -2.2% 1-month price return as of January 31, 2026, indicating that individual offerings can defy broader market trends [^]. This divergent performance highlights the high idiosyncratic risk associated with individual new listings compared to the more diversified IPO ETF, whose volatility is significantly lower than that of single stocks. The market remains poised for major tech IPOs from companies like Databricks and OpenAI later in 2026, whose future success will heavily influence the timing and valuation expectations for the broader tech IPO ecosystem [^].
8. What Is the Projected PE-to-VC Tech IPO Ratio for H1 2026?
| Projected H1 2026 PE-to-VC IPO Ratio | 0.60 [^] |
|---|---|
| Historical 2018-2019 PE-to-VC IPO Ratio | 0.33 [^] |
| Projected Percentage Change in IPO Ratio | +81.8% [^] |
H1 2026 IPO market anticipates a notable shift favoring PE-backed companies. The projected ratio of private equity (PE)-backed to venture capital (VC)-backed technology Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) for H1 2026 is forecast at 0.60. This represents an 81.8% increase from the 2018-2019 historical average ratio of 0.33, a period where VC-backed IPOs were predominant [^]. This significant rebalancing is primarily driven by the prevailing "higher-for-longer" interest rate environment of the mid-2020s, which has redirected investor focus towards sustainable profitability and free cash flow generation, characteristics more commonly found in PE-backed assets [^].
Several factors contribute to this divergence, affecting PE and VC markets differently. Elevated discount rates, a consequence of higher interest rates, particularly penalize companies with distant profitability horizons, thereby making cash-generative PE-backed firms more attractive to public investors. Concurrently, private equity firms face significant pressure to return capital to their Limited Partners, which often accelerates their mature portfolio companies towards an IPO exit. In contrast, the venture capital ecosystem continues to contend with a "valuation overhang" stemming from the 2021 funding bubble, resulting in a backlog of over-valued private companies that struggle to meet current public market expectations without substantial valuation adjustments [^]. Furthermore, investor demand has undergone a structural shift, now prioritizing "quality" and "resilience," favoring companies that demonstrate durable moats, predictable revenue streams, and strong operational leverage.
9. How Do Federal Reserve Rate Cut Signals Influence S-1 Filing Activity?
| Correlation Coefficient | +0.72 (between rate cut probability change and S-1 filings) [^] |
|---|---|
| Granger Causality p-value | 0.03 (rate cut probability Granger-causes S-1 filings) [^] |
| Jan 2026 S-1 Filings | 38 new filings (following +33 percentage point surge in rate cut probability) [^] |
A strong correlation exists between Fed rate cut probabilities and S-1 registrations. Research indicates a significant positive correlation (r = +0.72) between changes in the implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut and the subsequent volume of S-1 registration filings. A Granger causality analysis, with a p-value of 0.03, further supports that rate cut probabilities serve as a leading indicator for S-1 filing activity, suggesting that prospective issuers respond to monetary policy signals [^].
Dovish monetary policy signals often precede an increase in IPO announcements. This relationship offers a robust predictive tool for anticipating initial public offering announcements, as companies frequently interpret dovish monetary policy signals as an opportune moment for going public. For example, following the January 28, 2026, FOMC meeting, a 33 percentage point surge in the implied probability of a March 2026 rate cut led to 38 new S-1 filings in the subsequent two weeks, substantially exceeding the trailing six-month average of 16 filings [^].
Prediction markets corroborate that market participants adjust IPO timing expectations. These findings are further supported by prediction markets, where contracts for prominent IPO-ready companies exhibited significant price increases following dovish Federal Reserve signals. For instance, the implied probability of Stripe Inc. IPOing in 2026 increased from 32% to 45% after the January 2026 meeting, indicating that market participants swiftly incorporate Fed policy into their IPO timing expectations [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts for 2026 IPO Market
The 2026 IPO market is anticipated to see increased activity, fueled by several bullish catalysts [^] . Improving macroeconomic conditions, characterized by moderating inflation and expected interest rate cuts by central banks, are set to enhance investor confidence and lower financing costs [^]. A robust investor appetite, combined with a significant backlog of late-stage private companies, indicates a strong pipeline [^]. Additionally, a favorable regulatory environment under the U.S [^]. SEC, which is signaling a more permissive approach to capital formation, along with legislative clarity for digital assets, is expected to encourage more listings [^]. Strong interest in sectors such as AI, crypto, fintech, and healthcare, alongside refined listing mechanisms and private equity exit strategies, further supports this optimistic outlook [^]. However, several bearish catalysts could dampen the 2026 IPO market's momentum [^]. Sustained high interest rates or unexpected rate hikes would make fixed-income investments more attractive, increase borrowing costs for companies, and depress valuations, thus diminishing investor appetite for riskier IPOs [^]. Increased market volatility, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, or a significant economic recession could also cause companies to delay their IPO plans [^]. Furthermore, poor post-IPO performance of the 2026 class could lead to investor caution and potentially close the 'IPO window' for subsequent offerings [^]. Unexpected shifts in regulatory scrutiny or already lofty stock valuations could also negatively impact market sentiment [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 08, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The 2026 IPO market is anticipated to see increased activity, fueled by several bullish catalysts [^] .
- Trigger: Improving macroeconomic conditions, characterized by moderating inflation and expected interest rate cuts by central banks, are set to enhance investor confidence and lower financing costs [^] .
- Trigger: A robust investor appetite, combined with a significant backlog of late-stage private companies, indicates a strong pipeline [^] .
- Trigger: Additionally, a favorable regulatory environment under the U.S [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 26 markets in this series
Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 23 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXIPO-25-BEAS: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
- KXIPO-26-MEDLINE: YES (Dec 19, 2025)
- KXIPO-25-KRAK: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
- KXIPO-25-MED: YES (Dec 19, 2025)
- KXIPO-25-CELONIS: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
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