When will AppsFlyer officially announce an IPO?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- AppsFlyer targets a U.S. IPO listing as early as 2025.
- Investment banks are reportedly selected for AppsFlyer's IPO.
- AppsFlyer made strategic hires indicating public company readiness.
- General Atlantic's 2020 investment aligns with an IPO timeline.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before May 1, 2026 | 4.0% | 5.7% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | 5.0% | 6.3% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 7.0% | 8.3% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 9.0% | 10.2% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 10.0% | 11.4% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 April 19, 2026: 13.0pp drop
Price decreased from 23.0% to 10.0%
Outcome: Before Sep 1, 2026
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "Yes" resolution occurs if AppsFlyer officially announces an IPO before June 1, 2027. This announcement is defined by the SEC declaring Form S-1 effective, the IPO being priced, or a securities exchange assigning a ticker. The market will resolve to "No" if none of these events occur by the market's close on May 31, 2027, at 11:59pm EDT. A "Yes" resolution triggers an immediate market close, even if the company does not begin trading until after June 1, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before May 1, 2026 | $0.04 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | $0.07 | $1.00 | 7% |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | $0.08 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | $0.10 | $0.98 | 10% |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | $0.11 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | $0.17 | $0.92 | 16% |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | $0.18 | $0.91 | 31% |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | $0.21 | $0.88 | 27% |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | $0.23 | $0.86 | 29% |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | $0.26 | $0.83 | 34% |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | $0.30 | $0.80 | 30% |
| Before May 1, 2027 | $0.32 | $0.77 | 33% |
| Before Jun 1, 2027 | $0.35 | $0.74 | 27% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. How Have AppsFlyer Comparables' EV/Sales Multiples Compressed Since 2021?
| AppLovin Current Forward EV/Sales | 4.7x (May 24, 2024) [^] |
|---|---|
| Digital Turbine Current Forward EV/Sales | 1.45x (May 24, 2024) [^] |
| AppLovin Peak EV/Sales in 2021 | 10x-12x (mid-2021) [^] |
6. Who are AppsFlyer's primary investors and their investment timelines?
| General Atlantic Investment | Series D, January 2020 [^] |
|---|---|
| Qumra Capital Investment | Series C, January 2017 [^] |
| Goldman Sachs Status | No investment identified [^] |
7. What Strategic Hires Indicate AppsFlyer's IPO Readiness?
| VP of Investor Relations | Rami Rozen hired in March 2023 [^] |
|---|---|
| Head of FP&A | Moshe Grimberg hired in June 2022 [^] |
| Estimated IPO Timeline/Valuation | IPO targeted for H1 2025, ~$4 billion valuation [^] |
8. What Are Ad-Tech M&A Trends and AppsFlyer Valuations?
| AppsFlyer Annual Recurring Revenue | Over $500 million (ARR) [^] |
|---|---|
| AppsFlyer Reported Acquisition Offer | $3 billion (implies 6x ARR multiple) [^] |
| Rokt Acquisition | mParticle for $300 million [^] |
9. What Are AppsFlyer's IPO Plans and Valuation Targets?
| Advising Investment Banks | JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. [^] |
|---|---|
| Target IPO Valuation | Approximately $3 billion [^] |
| Target Capital Raise | Around $300 million [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: February 08, 2026
- Closes: June 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 3 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 3 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXIPOAPPSFLYER-26MAR01: NO (Mar 01, 2026)
- KXIPOAPPSFLYER-26FEB01: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
- KXIPOAPPSFLYER-26APR01: NO (Apr 01, 2026)
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