How much will the Steam Machine cost?

What happened: The primary driver of the 12.0 percentage point drop in the "How much will the Steam Machine cost?" prediction market for the "At least $900" outcome on February 19, 2026, was the significant uncertainty surrounding Valve's pricing and release strategy due to escalating global memory and storage costs ^{[^]}. In early February 2026, Valve officially stated they were unable to share specific pricing and launch dates for the new Steam Machine, Steam Frame, and Steam Controller as planned, citing rapidly increasing memory and storage shortages driven by AI demand ^{[^]}. This announcement, widely reported in traditional news outlets, introduced considerable doubt about the product's final cost and even its timely release, with some outlets noting the initial launch window was looking "a little optimistic" ^{[^]}. While many discussions suggested potential price increases due to these component costs, the overall uncertainty regarding Valve's ability to finalize a price and bring the product to market confidently, as well as speculation on potential delays or strategic re-evaluations, likely led the market to decrease its confidence in a definitive "At least $900" outcome ^{[^]}. Social media activity, such as a Reddit post on February 16, 2026, discussing the "RAMpocalyse" and anticipated price changes, appeared to coincide with and amplify these concerns, reflecting the widespread industry anxiety about Valve's hardware ^{[^]}. Given that the market drop was in response to official statements and widespread reporting, social media was a contributing accelerant, spreading the narrative of pricing uncertainty rather than being the primary driver ^{[^]}.

What happened: The 10.0 percentage point drop in the "At least $900" outcome for the Steam Machine prediction market on January 30, 2026, was primarily driven by the widespread interpretation that earlier leaked high prices were inflated ^{[^]}. Weeks prior, around January 9-10, Czech retailers like Datart and Smarty listed the new Steam Machine 2026 at approximately $950-$1070 USD ^{[^]}. However, these reports were immediately accompanied by analysis, notably from Tom's Hardware, that these prices likely included significant European VAT and retailer markups, suggesting a potential US MSRP closer to $826-$930 ^{[^]}. This sentiment, further amplified by social media discussions like a January 12 YouTube video titled "This Steam Machine Price Leak Makes No Sense" which called the leaks "complete bull" and "likely just a placeholder," likely coalesced by January 30, leading market participants to anticipate a final price below $900 ^{[^]}. Social media was a primary driver, as it quickly disseminated and re-evaluated the nuances of the initial retailer price leaks, leading to a shift in market expectations ^{[^]}.

What happened: The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point drop in the "At least $700" prediction market for the Steam Machine on February 17, 2026, was the mounting concern over the product's viability and potential indefinite delay due to rapidly increasing memory and storage costs ^{[^]}. Valve had officially stated in early February 2026 that they were unable to confidently announce specific pricing or launch dates for the Steam Machine because of these component shortages, which were exacerbated by AI demand ^{[^]}. This announcement, alongside subsequent industry analysis, widely suggested that initial price expectations around $700 were too low, with revised estimates pushing much higher (e.g., $900-$1500) ^{[^]}. The market likely interpreted this as a diminished probability of the Steam Machine launching as a competitive product at any relevant price point, leading to a drop in the likelihood of it costing "at least $700" as a viable offering, rather than an expectation of a lower price ^{[^]}. This sentiment was further reflected in later commentary, suggesting the Steam Machine's future was "in serious doubt" or "dead on arrival" due to unmanageable costs ^{[^]}.

What happened: The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point drop in the "How much will the Steam Machine cost ^{[^]}? At least $700" prediction market on January 28, 2026, was likely growing market skepticism and anticipation of Valve's struggles with pricing amidst rapidly increasing global memory and storage costs ^{[^]}. Although official announcements from Valve detailing pricing uncertainties and potential delays due to these shortages came in early February 2026, the prediction market's movement indicates a pre-emptive decline in confidence that the Steam Machine could successfully launch at or above the $700 threshold ^{[^]}. This suggests that by late January, a prevalent narrative among analysts and tech enthusiasts likely emerged, highlighting the unfeasibility or commercial risk of a high-priced Steam Machine, forcing expectations of either a lower launch price or significant delays ^{[^]}. Social media activity and discussions within tech communities likely amplified these concerns, leading to the market's re-evaluation ^{[^]}. Social media was a contributing accelerant, as the intensifying global component crisis and its implications for Valve's hardware pricing were subjects of considerable discussion that likely shaped market sentiment before official corporate statements ^{[^]}.

What happened: The primary driver of the Steam Machine prediction market price drop on January 26, 2026, was a report published on January 24, 2026 ^{[^]}. This report, citing a video from the influential tech YouTube channel Linus Tech Tips and comments from Valve software engineer Pierre-Loup Griffais, estimated the Steam Machine's retail cost could be around $699, potentially reaching $910 with inflated component prices, but aiming for a price point similar to building an equivalent PC ^{[^]}. This widely disseminated estimate from a credible tech influencer and a company executive, suggesting a lower price than $800, appeared to lead the price move, causing market participants to reduce their confidence in the "At least $800" outcome ^{[^]}. Social media and influential tech channels were the primary drivers ^{[^]}.