Natural gas price on Apr 16, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for natural gas prices to be above $2.600, with an 81.5% model probability versus 63.0% market probability. This divergence is driven by expectations of increased U.S. LNG export capacity and warmer early April 2026 temperatures contributing to higher demand and slower storage injections.
1. Executive Verdict
- U.S. LNG export capacity projected to increase substantially by Q1 2026.
- Warmer early April 2026 temperatures will boost natural gas demand.
- Expect slower natural gas storage injections due to higher demand.
- Permian Basin will drive U.S. natural gas growth through 2026.
- New renewable and battery capacity displaces natural gas in 2025.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| above $2.850 | 1.0% | 28.0% | Increased U.S. LNG exports and warmer April temperatures are expected to boost natural gas demand. |
| above $2.690 | 43.0% | 46.8% | Increased U.S. LNG exports and warmer April temperatures are expected to boost natural gas demand. |
| above $2.705 | 43.0% | 46.8% | Increased U.S. LNG exports and warmer April temperatures are expected to boost natural gas demand. |
| above $3 | 15.0% | 28.0% | Increased U.S. LNG exports and warmer April temperatures are expected to boost natural gas demand. |
| above $3.035 | 1.0% | 28.0% | Increased U.S. LNG exports and warmer April temperatures are expected to boost natural gas demand. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Based on the chart data, this market shows a significant upward trend in a short period. The probability started at 25.0% and has since risen to a current price of 63.0%. The most notable movement was a sharp 38 percentage point spike on April 16, 2026. The market has been volatile, with prices fluctuating between a low of 25.0% and a high of 78.0%. The provided context does not offer any specific news or developments that would explain the cause of this rapid price increase.
The trading volume in this market is extremely low, with a total of only 7 contracts traded. All of this volume occurred at the current price level of 63.0%. The initial price of 25.0% and the peak of 78.0% had zero associated volume, suggesting these may have been opening odds or unfilled orders rather than prices established by actual trades. This very low liquidity indicates that the price movements may be the result of one or two participants and do not necessarily reflect a broad market consensus. The lack of significant trading volume suggests a low level of conviction among traders.
Given the thin trading and limited data points, establishing firm support or resistance levels is difficult. The 25.0% mark served as the initial floor, while the 78.0% level represents a temporary peak. The current price of 63.0% is the most significant level as it is the only point supported by trading volume. Overall, the price action suggests a shift toward bullish market sentiment, with participants now seeing a higher probability of the market resolving to YES. However, this sentiment should be viewed with caution due to the illiquid nature of the market.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 16, 2026: 51.0pp spike
Price increased from 16.0% to 67.0%
Outcome: above $2.615
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if the 1-minute candlestick close price for the NGDK6 (May 2026) natural gas contract is above 2.650 USD/MMBtu at 5 PM EDT on April 16, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market closes on April 16, 2026, at 5 PM EDT, with projected payouts by 6 PM EDT. Settlement data is verified from Pyth, rounded to three decimal places, and uses a rolling contract based on specified expiry rules, defaulting to the most recently available data if specific data is absent.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| above $2.625 | $0.89 | $0.43 | 79% |
| above $2.605 | $0.76 | $0.36 | 76% |
| above $2.615 | $0.86 | $0.33 | 67% |
| above $2.600 | $0.96 | $0.35 | 63% |
| above $2.610 | $0.87 | $0.39 | 60% |
| above $2.620 | $0.91 | $0.42 | 53% |
| above $2.655 | $0.50 | $0.56 | 50% |
| above $2.650 | $0.51 | $0.54 | 48% |
| above $2.630 | $0.89 | $0.25 | 46% |
| above $2.635 | $0.89 | $0.30 | 45% |
| above $2.670 | $0.50 | $0.88 | 45% |
| above $2.665 | $0.52 | $0.80 | 43% |
| above $2.690 | $0.52 | $0.98 | 43% |
| above $2.705 | $0.52 | $0.99 | 43% |
| above $2.740 | $0.52 | $1.00 | 43% |
| above $2.685 | $0.52 | $0.95 | 42% |
| above $2.695 | $0.52 | $0.97 | 42% |
| above $2.700 | $0.52 | $0.64 | 42% |
| above $2.710 | $0.52 | $0.99 | 39% |
| above $2.715 | $0.52 | $0.62 | 37% |
| above $2.800 | $0.13 | $1.00 | 36% |
| above $2.750 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 33% |
| above $3.080 | $0.11 | $1.00 | 25% |
| above $2.995 | $0.12 | $0.99 | 24% |
| above $3.005 | $0.12 | $0.99 | 24% |
| above $3 | $0.12 | $0.99 | 15% |
| above $2.805 | $0.11 | $1.00 | 13% |
| above $3.030 | $0.09 | $1.00 | 10% |
| above $2.855 | $0.13 | $1.00 | 7% |
| above $2.850 | $0.10 | $1.00 | 1% |
| above $3.035 | $0.09 | $1.00 | 1% |
| above $3.130 | $0.18 | $1.00 | 1% |
| above $3.140 | $0.20 | $1.00 | 1% |
| above $3.145 | $0.18 | $1.00 | 1% |
| above $2.640 | $0.87 | $0.54 | 0% |
| above $2.645 | $0.86 | $0.55 | 0% |
| above $2.660 | $0.52 | $0.79 | 0% |
| above $2.675 | $0.45 | $0.90 | 0% |
| above $2.680 | $0.45 | $0.94 | 0% |
| above $2.720 | $0.52 | $0.99 | 0% |
| above $2.725 | $0.49 | $0.99 | 0% |
| above $2.730 | $0.52 | $0.99 | 0% |
| above $2.735 | $0.52 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.745 | $0.52 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.755 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.760 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.765 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.770 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.775 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.780 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.785 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.790 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.795 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.810 | $0.13 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.815 | $0.13 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.820 | $0.13 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.825 | $0.13 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.830 | $0.13 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.835 | $0.13 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.840 | $0.13 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.845 | $0.13 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.860 | $0.13 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.865 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.870 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.875 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.880 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.885 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.890 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.895 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.900 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.905 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.910 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.915 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.920 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.925 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.930 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.935 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.940 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.945 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.950 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.955 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.960 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.965 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.970 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.975 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.980 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.985 | $0.13 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $2.990 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $3.010 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $3.015 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $3.020 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $3.025 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $3.040 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $3.045 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $3.050 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $3.055 | $0.12 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $3.060 | $0.11 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $3.065 | $0.11 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $3.070 | $0.11 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $3.075 | $0.11 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $3.085 | $0.10 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $3.090 | $0.10 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $3.095 | $0.99 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $3.100 | $0.99 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $3.105 | $0.99 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $3.110 | $0.99 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $3.115 | $0.99 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $3.120 | $0.99 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $3.125 | $0.99 | $1.00 | 0% |
| above $3.135 | $0.99 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What Are EIA's End-of-March 2026 Natural Gas Storage Projections?
| Projected End-of-March 2026 Natural Gas Storage Level | Data not available from provided research [^] |
|---|---|
| Comparison to 5-Year Average Inventory | Specific comparison data not available from provided research [^] |
| Source of EIA 2026 STEO Projections | Specific content from EIA URLs not present [^] |
Specific natural gas storage projections from EIA's April 2026 STEO are unavailable. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) early April 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) does not contain specific projections for the end-of-March 2026 natural gas storage level or a comparison of this figure to the 5-year average inventory for the end of the withdrawal season within the provided web research results.
Provided web research results lacked specific EIA projection data. While several URLs referencing the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook pages [^] were identified, and there were mentions of an April 2026 outlook [^] and a storage report [^], the detailed content or specific data points from these sources were not present in the 'Web Research Results' section. Consequently, it is not possible to extract the precise figures for the projected end-of-March 2026 natural gas storage level or its comparison to the 5-year average based on the information provided.
6. What is the Projected U.S. LNG Export Capacity by Q1 2026?
| Projected U.S. LNG Export Capacity | Approximately 24.5 Bcf/d (By Q1 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Overall U.S. Liquefaction Utilization | 85% (In 2023) [^] |
| New Liquefaction Capacity Anticipated | More than 21 Bcf/d (Between 2024 and 2028) [^] |
By Q1 2026, U.S. LNG export capacity is projected to substantially increase. The total commissioned and operational LNG export capacity in the United States is expected to reach approximately 24.5 Bcf/d by Q1 2026 [^]. This significant expansion includes over 21 Bcf/d of new liquefaction capacity anticipated to come online between 2024 and 2028, representing a considerable boost from prior years [^]. For context, U.S. LNG exports averaged 11.6 Bcf/d in 2023 and were projected to rise further in 2024 and 2025 [^].
Major terminals like Plaquemines LNG are expanding capacity in phases leading into 2026. Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 is scheduled to begin its first train startup in Q4 2024, with subsequent trains planned for 2025 and 2026. Similarly, Corpus Christi Stage III anticipates its first train in 2025, followed by others in 2026 and 2027 [^]. While specific average utilization rates for these individual nascent projects by Q1 2026 are not available in the provided sources, overall U.S. liquefaction facilities operated at an average utilization rate of 85% in 2023 [^].
7. Which US Basin Will Drive Natural Gas Growth Through 2026?
| Primary Natural Gas Growth Driver (2025-2026) | Permian Basin [^] |
|---|---|
| EIA's Projected 2026 Growth Leader | Permian Basin [^] |
| Haynesville Overtakes Permian Gas Growth | Only in 2027 [^] |
Major energy firms forecast the Permian Basin to be the primary natural gas growth driver. Major energy analytics firms and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) generally anticipate the Permian Basin to be the primary driver of natural gas supply changes for full-year 2025 and leading into 2026. The EIA specifically projects that the Permian Basin will lead natural gas output growth in 2026 [^]. Wood Mackenzie highlights ongoing build momentum in Permian Basin gas infrastructure [^], and Rystad Energy identifies the Permian as a key driver shaping the US onshore industry outlook heading into 2026 due to gas strength [^].
Haynesville contributes substantially, but Permian growth leadership is expected until 2027. The Haynesville shale is also expected to contribute significantly to natural gas production growth, with Wood Mackenzie noting that US shale gas, overall, is experiencing a resurgence driven by new demand signals [^]. However, the EIA forecasts that the Haynesville will overtake the Permian in natural gas growth only in 2027, particularly as Henry Hub prices are projected to top $4 [^]. This suggests that for 2025 and through 2026, the Permian Basin is anticipated to maintain its leading position in terms of natural gas production growth [^]. Overall, the EIA projects U.S. natural gas production to reach record highs in both 2026 and 2027 [^].
8. What New Solar and Battery Capacity Is Planned for ERCOT and PJM in 2025?
| ERCOT 2025 Utility-Scale Solar Capacity | 11.2 GW [^] |
|---|---|
| ERCOT 2025 Battery Storage Capacity | 6.1 GW [^] |
| PJM 2025 Utility-Scale Solar Capacity | 2.7 GW [^] |
Based on EIA Form 860 and 860M data, ERCOT and PJM expect substantial renewable and storage additions in 2025. A significant amount of utility-scale solar and battery storage capacity is scheduled to come online in these territories. In the ERCOT region, Texas is expected to add 11.2 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale solar capacity [^]. ERCOT is also projected to lead the country in new utility-scale battery storage capacity, with 6.1 GW planned, representing 45% of the total U.S. additions [^]. For the PJM region, planned additions for 2025 include 2.7 GW of utility-scale solar and 1.6 GW of battery storage [^].
These additions will likely reduce natural gas demand in 2026. This projected increase in solar and battery storage capacity is anticipated to impact natural gas demand for power generation, particularly during the shoulder months of 2026. The EIA anticipates that this growth will displace some natural gas-fired generation [^]. Specifically, this displacement is most likely to occur during the middle of the day when solar output is at its highest. Additionally, battery storage systems will be utilized to discharge power during evening peaks or shoulder periods, further contributing to a reduction in the need for natural gas generation during these times [^].
9. How Will Early April 2026 Warmth Impact Natural Gas Storage?
| Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) | Above normal for first two weeks of April 2026 (southern U.S.) [^] |
|---|---|
| April 2026 Temperature Outlook | Above-average across southern and eastern U.S. [^] |
| Natural Gas Storage Injections | Delayed or weakened first significant injection [^] |
Weather models forecast above-average temperatures and CDDs for early April. Forecast models, including GFS-based outlooks from NOAA and ECMWF (AIFS ENS), anticipate warmer than seasonal averages for the first two weeks of April 2026 across key demand centers in the southern United States [^]. This projection is reinforced by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's 8 to 14-day outlook and its monthly outlook, both supporting above-average temperatures in the southern and southeastern U.S. [^]. Consequently, above-normal Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) are expected for the first half of April 2026 in these regions [^].
Elevated cooling demand will likely delay initial seasonal gas storage injections. The prediction of above-normal CDDs in early April 2026 suggests an earlier and potentially stronger onset of cooling demand than typically observed at the start of the shoulder season [^]. This increase in demand is expected to drive higher natural gas consumption for electricity generation in the southern U.S., thereby consuming a larger portion of available gas supplies [^]. As a result, this elevated cooling demand is projected to reduce the amount of natural gas available for injection into storage, potentially delaying the timing or decreasing the strength of the first significant injection for the season [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: April 23, 2026
- Closes: April 16, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXNATGASD-26APR1517-T2.650: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXNATGASD-26APR1517-T2.655: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXNATGASD-26APR1517-T2.660: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXNATGASD-26APR1517-T2.665: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXNATGASD-26APR1517-T2.670: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
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