Prediction market odds for a Top 10 finish at the 2026 Masters tournament shifted decisively on Saturday, April 11, 2026, as traders priced in the results of the third round. Probabilities surged for players atop the leaderboard, including a 37.0 percentage point gain for Scottie Scheffler and a 39.0 point gain for Patrick Cantlay, following their strong Saturday performances at Augusta National [3]. The probability mass, which had been more widely distributed, consolidated around a clear group of contenders, while odds for players who fell down the leaderboard or missed the cut, like Charl Schwartzel (-75.0pp), plummeted.
The market now heavily favors the players entering the final round in contention. Co-leaders Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young, both at -11 after 54 holes, are now priced at 97% and 93% respectively to finish in the top 10 [3]. The overall shift reflects the market moving from pre-tournament speculation to a data-driven consensus based on live performance, with volume on rising contracts outpacing that on declining ones, signaling conviction in the current leaders.
Distribution Analysis
The table below shows the implied probabilities for all 54 golfers in the market after the conclusion of play on Saturday, April 11. Probabilities have become highly concentrated among the players at the top of the official tournament leaderboard.
| Outcome | Current Prob | Change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | 97% | +3.0pp | 35,678 |
| Cameron Young | 93% | +27.0pp | 22,693 |
| Sam Burns | 88% | +14.0pp | 14,585 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 83% | +37.0pp | 67,154 |
| Shane Lowry | 82% | +25.0pp | 39,682 |
| Justin Rose | 74% | +7.0pp | 25,842 |
| Jason Day | 71% | +21.0pp | 25,449 |
| Patrick Reed | 54% | -32.0pp | 44,867 |
| Russell Henley | 54% | +29.0pp | 26,411 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 50% | +39.0pp | 6,284 |
| Hao-Tong Li | 44% | +17.0pp | 29,103 |
| Collin Morikawa | 38% | +12.0pp | 25,693 |
| Xander Schauffele | 37% | -14.0pp | 29,344 |
| Jake Knapp | 36% | +5.0pp | 69,776 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 31% | -41.0pp | 32,745 |
| Ben Griffin | 27% | +11.0pp | 10,282 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 22% | -4.0pp | 10,902 |
| Ludvig Aberg | 20% | -10.0pp | 33,022 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 20% | -8.0pp | 5,972 |
| Brooks Koepka | 20% | -15.0pp | 55,785 |
| Wyndham Clark | 18% | -20.0pp | 5,539 |
| Ryan Gerard | 15% | +11.0pp | 12,064 |
| Chris Gotterup | 14% | -35.0pp | 19,670 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 11% | -26.0pp | 10,374 |
| Gary Woodland | 11% | +6.0pp | 8,163 |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 10% | -18.0pp | 5,482 |
| Max Homa | 9% | -8.0pp | 36,266 |
| Dustin Johnson | 9% | +1.0pp | 9,950 |
| Nick Taylor | 9% | +12.0pp | 19,289 |
| Keegan Bradley | 8% | +5.0pp | 255 |
| Michael Brennan | 8% | +6.0pp | 1,533 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 8% | +6.0pp | 12,823 |
| Sungjae Im | 7% | -1.0pp | 15,116 |
| Sepp Straka | 7% | +2.0pp | 2,267 |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | 5% | +4.0pp | 186 |
| Brian Campbell | 4% | +6.0pp | 12,951 |
| Aaron Rai | 4% | -3.0pp | 13,383 |
| Charl Schwartzel | 4% | -75.0pp | 117 |
| Jordan Spieth | 3% | -1.0pp | 11,770 |
| Harris English | 3% | -2.0pp | 13,333 |
| Brian Harman | 3% | +5.0pp | 1,706 |
| Justin Thomas | 2% | -5.0pp | 7,136 |
| Matthew McCarty | 2% | -15.0pp | 9,567 |
| Sergio Garcia | 2% | -28.0pp | 225 |
| Viktor Hovland | 2% | -4.0pp | 6,099 |
| Maverick McNealy | 2% | -1.0pp | 4,800 |
| Marco Penge | 2% | +11.0pp | 252 |
| Adam Scott | 2% | -4.0pp | 8,449 |
| Sam Stevens | 2% | -41.0pp | 3,654 |
| Jon Rahm | 1% | -6.0pp | 4,297 |
| Corey Conners | 1% | -1.0pp | 157 |
| Si Woo Kim | 1% | +3.0pp | 251 |
| Kurt Kitayama | 1% | -3.0pp | 210 |
| Alex Noren | 1% | ~0pp | 93 |
Net: Probability has consolidated around the top of the leaderboard, with high-volume trading boosting the chances of Round 3 leaders while contracts for players further down the field or out of the tournament declined.
What's Driving the Shift
The sharp repricing appears to be a direct reaction to the conclusion of the third round of play at Augusta National.
Standout Saturday Performances: The biggest probability gains coincide with the day's best scores. Scottie Scheffler's implied odds jumped by 37.0 percentage points after he shot a 7-under-par 65, moving him up 17 spots into a tie for 7th place. Similarly, Patrick Cantlay's odds rose 39.0 points after his 6-under 66 vaulted him 15 spots into a tie for 9th [3]. These moves reflect traders pricing in their strong momentum heading into the final round.
Leaderboard Consolidation: The market has formed a strong consensus around the players in the top 10 positions after 54 holes. The top nine players on the leaderboard are all now priced at 50% or higher to secure a top-10 finish. Rory McIlroy (T1, -11) saw his odds climb to 97%, while his co-leader Cameron Young saw a significant 27.0-point gain to 93% [1, 3].
Post-Cut Corrections: The most dramatic drops reflect the tournament's competitive reality. The 75.0 percentage point collapse for Charl Schwartzel's contract, from 79% to 4%, is a correction for a player no longer in the running. The tournament cut was made at +4 after two rounds, reducing the field from 91 to 54 players for the weekend [4]. Schwartzel is not listed on the leaderboard among those who made the cut, meaning he is out of the tournament [3]. Other major drops for players like Tommy Fleetwood (-41.0pp) and Chris Gotterup (-35.0pp) coincide with their positions outside the top 10 heading into Sunday [3].
Market Context
This market allows for multiple winning outcomes, as 10 players will ultimately finish in the top 10. The sum of all probabilities, 1232%, is therefore expected to be well over 100%. The key insight from Saturday's trading is the direction and concentration of probability.
The volume data underscores the market's conviction. While the number of contracts that rose (26) versus declined (27) was nearly even, the total volume on rising contracts was significantly higher at 480,322 compared to 388,281 for declining contracts. This indicates that more capital and activity flowed toward the players climbing the leaderboard, reinforcing the consensus around the current contenders.
What to Watch
The market will remain active until April 27, but the outcome will be largely determined during the final round of play on Sunday, April 12 [4]. The forecast calls for sunny and hot conditions, suggesting weather is unlikely to be a major factor in the final day's results [1]. The market will settle based on the final official leaderboard published by sources including ESPN and the PGA Tour.
