Economics coverage for Kalshi prediction market probability repricing.
Economics prediction market repricing tied to Fed decisions, CPI/inflation releases, labor data, growth expectations, and policy-sensitive macro contracts.
The prediction market for the start of the next US recession underwent a significant repricing this week, as the perceived likelihood of a mid-2025 downturn all but evaporated. In a sharp shift, the c...
The prediction market for the next Federal Reserve rate hike has undergone a significant repricing, indicating a more hawkish outlook among traders. In a sharp shift, the probability of a hike occurri...
The prediction market for the June 17, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision has undergone a significant distributional shift, with the 25bps rate cut outcome rising to 37% from 36% over ...
The prediction market for U.S. CPI year-over-year inflation in April 2026 underwent a seismic reallocation of probabilities, with the Exactly 2.8% outcome plunging from 66% to 15%—a -51 pp drop—over a...
The prediction market for the April 2026 consumer price index (CPI) month-over-month outcome has undergone a dramatic reallocation of probabilities, with the "Exactly 0.3%" bucket rising 44 percentage...
The probability distribution for the Fed’s next rate hike has shifted decisively toward later timing, with the bulk of market consensus now pricing in an inter-meeting pause beyond 2027. The dramatic ...
Markets have abruptly shifted toward betting on the Federal Reserve maintaining its policy rate in June 2026 despite earlier expectations of a cut. The KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-H0 rate-hold contract surged...
Market Confidence Collapses as Traders Bet Against Mild Inflation Outcome On March 6, 2026, the prediction market for April’s monthly CPI data erupted into volatility, with the probability of a “0.2%”...
The "Exactly 0.3%" CPI outcome for April 2026, the most anticipated inflation metric this year, was abruptly discredited by prediction-market investors on March 7, 2026. The prior consensus for a 0.3%...
The "Exactly 3.5%" contract for the year-over-year April 2026 CPI reading plummeted 25 percentage points in trading today, dropping to just 5% from its earlier 30% price, signaling a seismic loss of f...
