Valero Texas Open: Top 20 Finishers
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Robert MacIntyre to be among the Top 20 Finishers, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Static data makes identifying top 20 golfers by criteria unfeasible.
- Corey Conners consistently gains strokes at TPC San Antonio via ball-striking.
- Collin Morikawa withdrew from the tournament due to a persistent back injury.
- The market experienced significant volatility over the past few days.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Crockett | 1.0% | 0.3% | Market higher by 0.7pp |
| Carson Young | 14.0% | 6.3% | Market higher by 7.7pp |
| Lanto Griffin | 14.0% | 6.3% | Market higher by 7.7pp |
| Chan Kim | 1.0% | 0.3% | Market higher by 0.7pp |
| Nick Hardy | 17.0% | 8.2% | Market higher by 8.8pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market demonstrates a powerful and rapid upward trend, with the implied probability for a YES resolution soaring from an initial 14.0% to a current price of 92.0%. The price action is defined by two significant spikes in late March and early April 2026. A massive 36.0 percentage point surge on March 30th propelled the price from its 14.0% floor to the 50.0% level. This was quickly followed by another 10.0 percentage point jump on April 2nd, which solidified the bullish sentiment and continued the upward trajectory.
The provided context does not offer a specific catalyst for these sharp price increases. However, trading volume suggests strong conviction behind the initial move. While volume was low at the starting price, it picked up significantly during the initial surge toward 50.0%, indicating a rush of trading activity that established the new trend. Since reaching elevated levels above 90.0%, volume has decreased, suggesting the market has reached a strong consensus and fewer participants are willing to bet against the outcome. The initial price of 14.0% acted as a clear support level before the breakout. The chart indicates an overwhelming shift in market sentiment, moving from a low-probability assessment to a near-certainty, with traders now pricing this outcome as highly likely.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Zachary Bauchou
📉 April 04, 2026: 37.0pp drop
Price decreased from 69.0% to 32.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 April 03, 2026: 58.0pp spike
Price increased from 11.0% to 69.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Ludvig Aberg
📈 April 02, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 50.0% to 60.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 March 30, 2026: 36.0pp spike
Price increased from 14.0% to 50.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if Tony Finau finishes in the top 20 (including ties) at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, based on sources like Fox Sports, ESPN, or the PGA Tour. It resolves to "No" if he does not meet this condition, or if he withdraws or forfeits after teeing off. If Finau forfeits, withdraws, or doesn't participate prior to teeing off, the market resolves to "Fair Market Price." The market opened on March 30, 2026, and will close after the outcome or by May 2, 2026, 8:00 PM EDT, with payouts projected 5 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Hardy | $0.01 | $1.00 | 17% |
| Carson Young | $0.01 | $1.00 | 14% |
| Lanto Griffin | $0.01 | $1.00 | 14% |
| Chan Kim | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Charlie Crockett | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Frankie Capan | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Robert MacIntyre | $0.99 | $0.03 | 99% |
| Ludvig Aberg | $0.92 | $0.11 | 92% |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | $0.81 | $0.22 | 78% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $0.78 | $0.25 | 78% |
| Tony Finau | $0.79 | $0.22 | 78% |
| Bud Cauley | $0.73 | $0.30 | 75% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | $0.75 | $0.28 | 73% |
| Kevin Roy | $0.72 | $0.30 | 70% |
| Alex Smalley | $0.69 | $0.35 | 65% |
| Patrick Fishburn | $0.01 | $1.00 | 64% |
| Taylor Moore | $0.24 | $0.82 | 62% |
| Andrew Putnam | $0.66 | $0.39 | 61% |
| John Parry | $0.57 | $0.44 | 57% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $0.55 | $0.47 | 55% |
| J.J. Spaun | $0.57 | $0.45 | 55% |
| Steven Fisk | $0.62 | $0.45 | 55% |
| Sam Ryder | $0.55 | $0.47 | 53% |
| Michael Kim | $0.51 | $0.53 | 49% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | $0.48 | $0.53 | 47% |
| Chris Kirk | $0.47 | $0.54 | 46% |
| Matt Wallace | $0.31 | $0.76 | 46% |
| Si Woo Kim | $0.45 | $0.58 | 45% |
| Andrew Novak | $0.43 | $0.60 | 44% |
| Alex Noren | $0.43 | $0.60 | 43% |
| Davis Thompson | $0.40 | $0.63 | 41% |
| Austin Eckroat | $0.39 | $0.65 | 40% |
| Mac Meissner | $0.20 | $0.85 | 40% |
| Chad Ramey | $0.23 | $0.81 | 39% |
| Bronson Burgoon | $0.14 | $0.91 | 36% |
| Eric Cole | $0.33 | $0.71 | 36% |
| Tom Hoge | $0.01 | $1.00 | 33% |
| Zachary Bauchou | $0.37 | $0.68 | 32% |
| Billy Horschel | $0.31 | $0.72 | 31% |
| Denny McCarthy | $0.01 | $1.00 | 30% |
| Joe Highsmith | $0.28 | $0.80 | 30% |
| Kevin Yu | $0.30 | $0.75 | 30% |
| Maverick McNealy | $0.31 | $0.70 | 30% |
| Gary Woodland | $1.00 | $1.00 | 28% |
| Marco Penge | $0.29 | $0.74 | 26% |
| Chandler Phillips | $0.30 | $0.75 | 25% |
| Sami Valimaki | $0.27 | $0.81 | 25% |
| Seonghyeon Kim | $0.20 | $0.87 | 23% |
| Adam Svensson | $0.28 | $0.76 | 22% |
| Jordan Spieth | $0.24 | $0.79 | 21% |
| Doug Ghim | $0.23 | $0.79 | 20% |
| Stephan Jaeger | $0.20 | $0.84 | 20% |
| Will Zalatoris | $0.24 | $0.80 | 20% |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | $0.22 | $0.81 | 19% |
| Brian Harman | $0.21 | $0.83 | 19% |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | $0.23 | $0.83 | 19% |
| Jesper Svensson | $0.01 | $1.00 | 19% |
| Kevin Streelman | $0.27 | $0.80 | 19% |
| A.J. Ewart | $0.18 | $0.86 | 18% |
| Gordon Sargent | $0.18 | $0.86 | 18% |
| Rico Hoey | $0.14 | $0.91 | 18% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | $0.18 | $0.86 | 18% |
| Christo Lamprecht | $0.13 | $0.90 | 17% |
| Hank Lebioda | $0.17 | $0.89 | 17% |
| Vince Whaley | $0.18 | $0.88 | 17% |
| Adam Schenk | $0.13 | $0.90 | 16% |
| Austin Smotherman | $0.17 | $0.88 | 16% |
| Erik Van Rooyen | $0.12 | $0.92 | 16% |
| Beau Hossler | $0.22 | $0.85 | 15% |
| Davis Chatfield | $0.01 | $1.00 | 15% |
| Jimmy Stanger | $0.01 | $1.00 | 15% |
| Kris Ventura | $0.01 | $1.00 | 15% |
| Daniel Brown | $0.01 | $1.00 | 14% |
| Webb Simpson | $0.01 | $1.00 | 14% |
| Brandt Snedeker | $0.14 | $0.89 | 13% |
| David Ford | $0.13 | $0.88 | 13% |
| Jackson Suber | $0.01 | $1.00 | 13% |
| J.T. Poston | $0.15 | $0.88 | 12% |
| Matthew McCarty | $0.13 | $0.90 | 12% |
| Matthieu Pavon | $0.01 | $1.00 | 12% |
| Nick Taylor | $0.14 | $0.88 | 12% |
| Takumi Kanaya | $0.13 | $0.89 | 11% |
| Alejandro Tosti | $0.01 | $1.00 | 10% |
| John VanDerLaan | $0.01 | $1.00 | 10% |
| Mark Hubbard | $0.10 | $1.00 | 10% |
| Paul Waring | $0.09 | $0.97 | 10% |
| Russell Henley | $0.01 | $1.00 | 10% |
| Danny Walker | $0.10 | $0.93 | 9% |
| Lucas Glover | $0.01 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Neal Shipley | $0.01 | $1.00 | 8% |
| Peter Malnati | $0.07 | $0.98 | 8% |
| Jeffrey Kang | $0.10 | $0.94 | 7% |
| William Mouw | $0.01 | $1.00 | 7% |
| Brendon Todd | $0.01 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Brice Garnett | $0.01 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Camilo Villegas | $0.01 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Justin Lower | $0.01 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Nick Dunlap | $0.01 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Luke Clanton | $0.09 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Matt Kuchar | $0.01 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Ryan Palmer | $0.01 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Austin Wylie | $0.01 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Adrien Saddier | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Chandler Blanchet | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Charley Hoffman | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Dylan Wu | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Emiliano Grillo | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Garrick Higgo | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Hao-Tong Li | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Jhonattan Vegas | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Jimmy Walker | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Joel Dahmen | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| John Keefer | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Jordan L. Smith | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Karl Vilips | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Keith Mitchell | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Kensei Hirata | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Lee Hodges | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Marcelo Rozo | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Max Homa | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Max McGreevy | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Patrick Rodgers | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Patton Kizzire | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Pontus Nyholm | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Rafael Campos | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Rickie Fowler | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Seamus Power | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Sepp Straka | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Tom Kim | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Zecheng Dou | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Matti Schmid | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Pierceson Coody | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Traders are largely optimistic about top golfers finishing in the Top 20 at the Valero Texas Open. There's a strong sentiment that players like Ludvig Aberg are "such a lock" and that it's "not much a reach" for a top player on tour to achieve a Top 20 placement. No explicit arguments against these players making the Top 20 were presented in the discussion.
5. Why is 2026 Valero Texas Open Player Analysis Challenging?
| Required Tool | Dynamic, interactive Strokes-Gained Query Tool [^] |
|---|---|
| Event Field Status | Not yet finalized for 2026 Valero Texas Open [^] |
| Data Limitations | Static web research cannot execute complex combined filters [^] |
Identifying golfers meeting all criteria with static data is unfeasible. The highly specific request to rank golfers in the top 25 for both Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Strokes Gained: Approach over their last 24 rounds, on courses over 7,400 yards, and under difficult scoring conditions cannot be directly fulfilled using static web research. The combined complexity and dynamic nature of these performance metrics make it impossible to generate a definitive list based on the provided information, especially for a future event such as the 2026 Valero Texas Open.
Dynamic query tools are essential for such complex statistical analysis. To effectively identify golfers matching these precise conditions, an interactive tool like DataGolf's Strokes-Gained Query Tool would typically be required [^]. While this tool allows users to select specific Strokes Gained categories and apply filters such as 'Last 12 Months' or a custom number of rounds [^], the static links provided lack the necessary functionality to execute the detailed, combined filtering. This limitation is particularly evident for non-standard parameters like specific course length thresholds and 'difficult scoring conditions' [^].
Future event fields and player statistics are inherently dynamic. The field for the 2026 Valero Texas Open has not yet been finalized [^], meaning any analysis would rely on speculative current player statistics. These statistics are constantly changing based on ongoing performance, which further complicates providing a definitive list far in advance. Therefore, although DataGolf is recognized as an authoritative source for such metrics [^], the specific query combining recent rounds, course characteristics, and scoring difficulty cannot be fulfilled based on the static web research provided.
6. Which Players Show Valero Texas Open Top 20 Discrepancies?
| Implied Top 20 Probabilities | Not available for individual players from major offshore sportsbooks [^] |
|---|---|
| Kalshi 'YES' Contract Prices | Not available for 'Top 20 Finishers' market [^] |
| 5% Discrepancy Identification | Not possible due to missing data [^] |
Identifying players with a significant discrepancy proved impossible. Research could not identify specific players exhibiting a positive discrepancy of 5 percentage points or more between their implied Top 20 probability derived from major offshore sportsbooks and their current 'YES' contract price on Kalshi for the 'Valero Texas Open: Top 20 Finishers' market. This inability stems from the fundamental absence of the specific numerical data required to conduct such a comparison.
Sportsbook data on implied Top 20 probabilities is unavailable. While numerous sources discuss odds and predictions for the 2026 Valero Texas Open from various sports news outlets, including Golf Channel, CBS Sports, and PGA TOUR, these sources do not provide a direct compilation of implied Top 20 probabilities for individual players specifically from major offshore sportsbooks [^]. The necessary aggregate data from these key sources for direct comparison was not found.
Kalshi 'YES' contract prices for Top 20 finishers are missing. Similarly, the 'YES' contract prices for individual players within the 'Valero Texas Open: Top 20 Finishers' prediction market on Kalshi are not available. Although one source refers to a Kalshi market, it specifically discusses the 'Valero Texas Open Winner Market' rather than the 'Top 20 Finishers' market, thus failing to provide the essential contract prices for the relevant comparison [^]. Without both distinct sets of specific, player-level data—implied Top 20 probabilities from major sportsbooks and 'YES' contract prices from Kalshi for the identical Top 20 market—the required discrepancy calculation cannot be performed to identify such players.
7. Which Golfers Consistently Gain Strokes at TPC San Antonio?
| Corey Conners Strokes Gained Consistency | 85% (17 of 20 rounds) [^] |
|---|---|
| Matt Kuchar Strokes Gained Consistency | 80% (16 of 20 rounds) [^] |
| Corey Conners Primary Strength | Ball-striking, Strokes Gained: Approach [^] |
Corey Conners demonstrates exceptional consistency at TPC San Antonio, primarily through ball-striking. He has competed in 20 rounds at the course, gaining strokes on the field in 17 of those rounds, which translates to an 85% consistency rate. Conners' sustained positive performance is largely attributable to his strong ball-striking, particularly his effectiveness in Strokes Gained: Approach [^].
Matt Kuchar also exhibits strong, consistent play at TPC San Antonio, driven by his short game. Across 20 rounds played at the venue, Kuchar has gained strokes on the field in 16 instances, achieving an 80% consistency rate. His reliable record is primarily a result of his proficient short game, with Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and Strokes Gained: Putting serving as key contributors to his overall positive performance [^].
8. Can Golfers with Poor Recent Form and Strong Ball-Striking Be Identified?
| Specific Player Identification | Not possible with available detailed ball-striking and recent results data [^]. |
|---|---|
| Tommy Fleetwood 2026 Results | T19 (2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational), T16 (THE PLAYERS Championship 2026) [^], [^] |
| Ludvig Åberg 2026 Results | T5 (THE PLAYERS Championship 2026) [^], [^] |
Identifying golfers with specific criteria proved challenging due to data limitations. Despite research into golfers exhibiting poor recent results but strong underlying Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking numbers, specific individuals meeting these combined criteria cannot be definitively identified from the provided information. The available sources, such as "2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained" [^] and "2026 PGA Tour - Ball Striking Leaders" [^], offer general statistics pages but do not provide the detailed player-specific ball-striking statistics required to pinpoint top 30 performers. Although one source broadly refers to an "elite ball-striker with a ton of value" [^], no specific player names are linked to both poor recent finishes and top-tier ball-striking in the given research.
Known elite ball-strikers did not meet the poor recent performance criteria. While recent tournament results were available for Tommy Fleetwood and Ludvig Åberg for 2026, their performances do not align with the criterion of being outside the top 50 in their last three events. Tommy Fleetwood's finishes include T19 at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational and T16 at THE PLAYERS Championship 2026 [^], [^]. Ludvig Åberg finished T5 at THE PLAYERS Championship 2026 [^], [^]. These results indicate strong recent form, rather than struggles suggesting correctable putting issues offsetting elite ball-striking, making it impossible to identify them as fitting the profile of golfers with poor recent results despite strong underlying ball-striking.
9. Why Did Collin Morikawa Withdraw From the Valero Texas Open?
| Player Status | Withdrawn from Valero Texas Open [^] |
|---|---|
| Reason for Withdrawal | Lingering back injury [^] |
| Player Valuation | $38 Million PGA Tour Golfer [^] |
Collin Morikawa officially withdrew from the Valero Texas Open due to a persistent back injury [^] . His withdrawal was widely reported by several media outlets on Wednesday [^]. Morikawa's absence, particularly as a significant contender, prompts questions regarding his readiness for upcoming events such as the Masters [^].
Morikawa is considered a high-value, high-profile player on the PGA Tour, often referred to as a '$38 Million PGA Tour Golfer' [^] . While other golfers may have also withdrawn from the tournament, Morikawa is the only primary high-profile player explicitly named in reports with a clear and stated reason for his absence [^].
The available research does not contain any information regarding a detailed Windfinder forecast for Thursday or Friday. Consequently, there are no indications provided about a potential scoring advantage for AM versus PM tee time waves at the Valero Texas Open.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 03, 2026
- Closes: May 03, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Related News
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 15 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXPGATOP20-VATO26-RCAS: SCALAR (Apr 01, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-VATO26-DLIP: SCALAR (Mar 31, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-VATO26-DBER: SCALAR (Mar 31, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-VATO26-CMOR: SCALAR (Mar 31, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-TMOO: NO (Mar 28, 2026)
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