The Masters: Top 5 Finishers
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Rory McIlroy to be among the top 5 finishers at the 2026 Masters, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Strokes Gained statistics are available for assessing top Masters contenders.
- Several top contenders made fundamental performance changes before 2026.
- Top LIV Golf players face significant OWGR drops by late 2025.
- The market has experienced significant price volatility in recent days.
- The model's probability for top five differs from the current market.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 20.0% | 10.9% | The provided background research confirms Scottie Scheffler as a top betting favorite for The Masters, which supports his inclusion in the market at 10.9%, but it explicitly states that the specific performance statistics needed to adjust this probability are not available. |
| Patrick Reed | 45.0% | 35.1% | The provided background research does not contain specific evidence regarding Patrick Reed's performance or suitability for a Top 5 finish, therefore the debiased market price remains a neutral anchor. |
| Rory McIlroy | 95.0% | 94.7% | Rory McIlroy is consistently listed as a top 10 betting favorite for the 2026 Masters by multiple sources, strongly supporting a high probability of a strong finish, however, this information is likely already fully integrated into the existing debiased price of 94.7% for a Top 5 finish, leaving no scope for an additional shift. |
| Ludvig Aberg | 7.0% | 2.7% | The provided research offers no specific information, statistics, or predictions regarding Ludvig Aberg's performance or likelihood of a Top 5 finish at The Masters, suggesting the debiased market price of 2.7% remains a fair assessment given the absence of new evidence. |
| Justin Rose | 40.0% | 29.6% | The provided background research does not contain any specific information or statistics regarding Justin Rose's performance or prospects for a Top 5 finish at The Masters, leading to a neutral assessment where the market's debiased price is considered fair due to a lack of specific data to contradict or support it. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market experienced extreme volatility, characteristic of a live sporting event. The price action began with a massive 44.0 percentage point spike on March 31, suggesting the market opened with strong bullish sentiment or confirmation of the subject's participation as a top contender. This initial optimism was reinforced by subsequent spikes on April 5 and April 9, which pushed the perceived probability of a top 5 finish to a peak of 65.0%. This pattern suggests strong performance in the early rounds of the tournament. However, this bullish trend reversed catastrophically on April 10 with a 42.0 percentage point drop, wiping out all gains made during the event and indicating a significant negative development, such as a very poor round of play that severely damaged the subject's chances.
The volume patterns underscore the market's reaction to these developments. Trading volume was highest during the period of peak volatility, particularly following the major price drop, which shows high conviction from traders reacting to the new information. The price level around 42-44% initially acted as a launching point for the final rally but failed completely as support during the subsequent crash. The peak near 65.0% served as a clear resistance level where market optimism maxed out. Overall, the chart illustrates a dramatic shift in market sentiment, from highly optimistic in the days leading up to and during the start of the tournament to strongly pessimistic. The current price of 19.0% reflects the market's belief that a top 5 finish is now a significant long shot.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Scottie Scheffler
📉 April 10, 2026: 42.0pp drop
Price decreased from 65.0% to 23.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 April 05, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 42.0% to 50.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Rory McIlroy
📈 April 09, 2026: 36.0pp spike
Price increased from 26.0% to 62.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Ludvig Aberg
📉 April 06, 2026: 16.0pp drop
Price decreased from 39.0% to 23.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Jon Rahm
📉 April 04, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 43.0% to 33.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, and No if he does not or withdraws after teeing off. If he forfeits or withdraws prior to teeing off, the market resolves to Fair Market Price. The market opens on March 30, 2026, closes after the event outcome (or by April 26, 2026, 7:00 pm EDT), and payouts are projected 5 minutes after closing, with official sources including Fox Sports, ESPN, and pgatour.com.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | $0.95 | $0.08 | 95% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $0.47 | $0.57 | 47% |
| Patrick Reed | $0.45 | $0.57 | 45% |
| Sam Burns | $0.43 | $0.58 | 43% |
| Cameron Young | $0.40 | $0.61 | 40% |
| Justin Rose | $0.40 | $0.62 | 40% |
| Shane Lowry | $0.31 | $0.74 | 31% |
| Xander Schauffele | $0.24 | $0.78 | 24% |
| Jason Day | $0.21 | $0.81 | 21% |
| Chris Gotterup | $0.19 | $0.85 | 20% |
| Scottie Scheffler | $0.20 | $0.85 | 20% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $0.20 | $0.81 | 20% |
| Sam Stevens | $0.02 | $1.00 | 19% |
| Wyndham Clark | $0.16 | $0.87 | 18% |
| Brooks Koepka | $0.17 | $0.85 | 17% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $0.16 | $0.87 | 14% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $0.14 | $0.89 | 14% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | $0.13 | $0.90 | 13% |
| Jake Knapp | $0.14 | $0.88 | 12% |
| Ben Griffin | $0.11 | $0.91 | 11% |
| Marco Penge | $0.02 | $1.00 | 10% |
| Sergio Garcia | $0.02 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Si Woo Kim | $0.01 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Aaron Rai | $0.02 | $1.00 | 8% |
| Hao-Tong Li | $0.11 | $0.92 | 8% |
| Keegan Bradley | $0.02 | $1.00 | 8% |
| Collin Morikawa | $0.07 | $0.95 | 7% |
| Ludvig Aberg | $0.10 | $0.93 | 7% |
| Max Homa | $0.07 | $0.94 | 7% |
| Alex Noren | $0.01 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Harris English | $0.03 | $0.99 | 4% |
| Patrick Cantlay | $0.04 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Russell Henley | $0.05 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Brian Campbell | $0.01 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Brian Harman | $0.01 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Dustin Johnson | $0.03 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Jon Rahm | $0.03 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Jordan Spieth | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Maverick McNealy | $0.02 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Nick Taylor | $0.04 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | $0.02 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Adam Scott | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Justin Thomas | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Matthew McCarty | $0.01 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Michael Brennan | $0.03 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Ryan Gerard | $0.03 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Sepp Straka | $0.03 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Sungjae Im | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Viktor Hovland | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Charl Schwartzel | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Corey Conners | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Gary Woodland | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Kurt Kitayama | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Traders in this market predominantly express high confidence in a "Yes" outcome for various golfers to achieve a top 5 finish at the 2026 Masters, especially Rory McIlroy, who currently holds a 95% probability for "Yes." Other golfers like Sam Burns, Scottie Scheffler, Shane Lowry, and Brooks Koepka are also backed by traders with optimistic sentiments such as "coming in hot" or "let's cook!" The consensus heavily favors Rory McIlroy's top 5 finish, with no specific arguments against this outcome presented in the discussion.
5. What Strokes Gained Statistics Are Available for Masters Favorites?
| Specific Strokes Gained Data | Not explicitly provided in current research for top 10 favorites (Research Summary) [^] |
|---|---|
| Tools for Detailed Stats | Data Golf query tool [^], PGA TOUR Stats database [^] |
| Top Masters Betting Favorites | Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, Bryson DeChambeau [^] |
The precise Strokes Gained: Approach (SG:APP) and Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG:ARG) statistics for the top 10 betting favorites, specifically comparing their last 16 rounds at Augusta National to their baseline PGA Tour performance, are not explicitly provided within the current web research results [Research Summary, Research findings]. Such detailed, pre-compiled, player-specific granular data requires access to dynamic golf statistics databases, as the available sources do not contain this specific pre-queried information.
Top 10 Masters favorites include prominent names like Scheffler and McIlroy. Based on comprehensive odds and expert predictions for the 2026 Masters, the consistently identified top 10 betting favorites include Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, and Bryson DeChambeau [^]. To obtain the requested SG: Approach and SG: Around the Green statistics for these players—specifically comparing their last 16 rounds at Augusta National against their baseline performance at other PGA Tour venues during the same period—researchers must utilize specialized tools.
Specialized tools allow detailed retrieval of specific Strokes Gained metrics. To acquire these precise statistics, a researcher would typically use platforms such as the Data Golf query tool [^] or the PGA TOUR Stats database [^]. These platforms offer detailed filtering by player, course, statistic category, and timeframes. Historically, strong short game and iron play are crucial for success at Augusta National, given its challenging greens and surrounds [^]. A player's baseline performance on the PGA Tour generally refers to their overall Strokes Gained metrics over a recent period, providing a comparative measure against their Augusta-specific performance.
6. How Do Major Changes Impact 2026 Masters Favorites' Performance?
| Rory McIlroy's Change | Switched irons to cavity-back, then reverted to blades [^] |
|---|---|
| Rickie Fowler's Change | Comprehensive equipment overhaul for nearly every club [^] |
| Tony Finau's Change | New swing coach and caddie [^] |
Several top contenders made fundamental changes before the 2026 season. Several players among the top 20 favorites for the 2026 Masters have implemented fundamental changes to their core team or equipment since the conclusion of the 2025 season. However, the available research does not contain historical data on the major championship performance impact within the first six months of previous similar changes for these specific players. Therefore, it is not possible to describe the historical impact on their major championship performance based on the provided sources.
Key players implemented various changes to their team or gear. Rory McIlroy began the 2026 season by switching his irons to a cavity-back model, though he later reverted to his blade irons after an "experiment" [^]. Rickie Fowler undertook a comprehensive equipment overhaul for the 2026 season, changing nearly every club in his bag [^]. Tony Finau made core team adjustments for 2026, bringing in a new swing coach, Boyd Summerhays, and a new caddie, Mark Urbanek [^]. Ludvig Åberg also started 2026 with two major equipment changes, switching his driver from a Titleist TSR2 to a Titleist GT2 and his putter from an Odyssey White Hot Versa #1 to an Odyssey Ai-ONE [^].
7. Which Golfers Struggle on Fast Bentgrass Greens in 2025?
| Specific Green Type Performance Data | Not available for individual player performance drops >0.75 strokes gained on fast, undulating Bentgrass vs [^]. flatter, slower Bermuda or Poa annua greens for 2025 [^]. |
|---|---|
| 2025 PGA Tour Strokes Gained Data | Accessible through platforms like Data Golf [^]. |
| Impact of Different Green Surfaces | Recognized area of analysis within golf statistics [^], [^]. |
Specific player data meeting the criteria is not directly available. The requested information detailing a statistically significant performance drop greater than 0.75 strokes gained total on fast, undulating Bentgrass greens compared to flatter, slower Bermuda or Poa annua greens for the 2025 season cannot be directly extracted from the provided research. While general Strokes Gained data for the 2025 PGA Tour is accessible via platforms like Data Golf [^], [^], [^], [^], these sources do not contain the specific, comparative splits by green characteristics for individual players, nor do they identify statistically significant performance drops.
Granular analysis by specific green characteristics is absent. The research indicates that while 2025 PGA Tour Strokes Gained data exists, it does not offer the fine-grained analysis required to pinpoint specific players with the specified performance drop. The available sources do not provide pre-analyzed player-specific data segmented by these precise green characteristics, nor do they identify statistically significant drops for the 2025 season. Despite this, the impact of different green surfaces on player performance, including Bermuda, Bentgrass, and Poa annua, is a recognized area of analysis within golf statistics [^], [^], [^], with some analyses exploring broader performance splits between Bermuda and non-Bermuda courses [^].
8. What Process Identifies Golfers Peaking for Major Championships?
| Player Ranking Source | Official World Golf Rankings [^] |
|---|---|
| Performance Analysis Data | Strokes Gained (SG) data from Data Golf [^] |
| Peaking Criteria | Gain >= 1.5 strokes on season average in >= 2 of last 4 majors [^] |
Identifying major 'peakers' requires an analytical approach to player rankings. To pinpoint golfers currently ranked outside the Top 15 in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) who consistently perform well in major championships, an initial step involves reviewing authoritative sources such as ESPN, OWGR.com, or CBS Sports to identify players ranked 16th or lower [^]. This forms the foundational list of candidates whose major performance would then be scrutinized.
'Peaking' is precisely defined by specific Strokes Gained criteria. For each player identified, a detailed analysis of their Strokes Gained (SG) performance is necessary. This involves retrieving individual SG data for their last four major championships, alongside their season average SG performance, from specialized golf statistics platforms like Data Golf [^]. The strict definition of 'peaking' for this analysis requires a player to have gained at least 1.5 strokes on their season average performance in at least two of these last four major championships. Calculating the difference between a player's SG performance in each major and their season average SG determines if they meet this rigorous threshold.
Definitive player identification is currently impossible with available static data. Based on the provided research output, it is not feasible to definitively list specific players and their exact statistics that meet the defined 'peaking' criteria. The referenced sources primarily consist of dynamic data query tools, such as the 'Strokes-Gained Query Tool' [^], rather than pre-compiled statistical outputs for individual players. A comprehensive answer identifying such players would necessitate actively querying these data platforms to retrieve and analyze individual player major performance against their season averages.
9. How Will Masters 2026 Changes Affect LIV Golf Rankings?
| OWGR Decline Projection | Multiple Major winners outside top 200 by end of 2025 [^] |
|---|---|
| Masters 2026 Criteria Update | Augusta National confirmed new qualifying routes [^] |
| Masters 2026 Field Size | Approximately 88 golfers [^] |
LIV Golfers face significant OWGR drops by late 2025. Top LIV Golf players, including Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, and Brooks Koepka, are projected to experience a continued decline in their Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) through the end of 2025. This downturn is attributed to LIV Golf events not awarding OWGR points, leading to a natural fall in rankings as existing points expire. By the close of 2025, it is anticipated that multiple Major winners could find themselves ranked outside the top 200 of the OWGR [^], a trend already exemplified by Bryson DeChambeau's current ranking [^].
Augusta National announced new 2026 Masters qualifying changes. The Augusta National Committee has officially announced substantial changes and new qualifying pathways for the 2026 Masters Tournament [^]. These updated criteria are specifically designed to shape the field for the 90th edition of the event [^]. Despite the new routes, LIV Golfers who are current or former Masters champions, winners of other major championships, or meet other merit-based criteria remain eligible to qualify [^]. The 2026 Masters field is expected to include approximately 88 golfers, with various established paths to invitation [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: April 26, 2026
- Closes: April 26, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Related News
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXPGATOP5-MAST26-DAW: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXPGATOP5-MAST26-MIW: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXPGATOP5-MAST26-BUW: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXPGATOP5-MAST26-SAV: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXPGATOP5-MAST26-JJS: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.
