The Masters: Top 20 Finishers
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Scottie Scheffler to be among the top 20 finishers at the 2026 Masters, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Future Strokes Gained data for 2026 Masters golfers is currently unavailable.
- No players met the specific Masters performance criteria for non-champions.
- No specific players had significant pre-tournament Top 20 finish odds shifts.
- Approximately 22 golfers are expected to make their Masters debut in 2026.
- Multiple Top 30 golfers made significant equipment or caddie changes in 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Rose | 74.0% | 69.8% | Consistent performer at the Masters with multiple top-10 finishes, including a T6 in 2023. |
| Akshay Bhatia | 41.0% | 30.5% | Recently won the Valero Texas Open, showcasing peak form and precise iron play. |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 59.0% | 51.4% | Amateur making his debut after winning the 2023 U.S. Amateur. |
| Corey Conners | 19.0% | 10.1% | Market higher by 8.9pp |
| Robert MacIntyre | 6.0% | 2.3% | Market higher by 3.7pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market exhibits a strong upward trend, with the implied probability for a Top 20 finish rising from an initial 1.0% to its current price of 91.0%. The most significant activity occurred in the weeks leading up to the tournament, characterized by extreme volatility and sharp price spikes. Notably, the price surged from 50.0% to 95.0% between March 31 and April 1. After a brief correction down to 81.0% on April 5, the price spiked again, reaching a market high of 97.0% on April 9. This pattern indicates a period of rapid price discovery as the event drew closer.
The specific drivers for these price swings are not detailed in the provided context, but such movements typically correspond to external news or performance indicators. The substantial total volume of 89,993 contracts suggests a liquid market with high conviction among participants. From a technical perspective, the price has encountered resistance in the 95%-97% range, representing the peak valuation by the market. A potential support level may have formed around the 77%-81% range, where the price drop on April 5 reversed. The overall chart action reflects a dramatic shift in market sentiment, moving from low expectation to a strong consensus that the subject has a very high probability of a Top 20 finish.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Jon Rahm
📉 April 09, 2026: 43.0pp drop
Price decreased from 67.0% to 24.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📉 April 03, 2026: 25.0pp drop
Price decreased from 83.0% to 58.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Ludvig Aberg
📉 April 06, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 65.0% to 54.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Rory McIlroy
📈 April 05, 2026: 18.0pp spike
Price increased from 51.0% to 69.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📉 April 04, 2026: 20.0pp drop
Price decreased from 71.0% to 51.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, with Fox Sports, ESPN, and the PGA Tour serving as sources for verification. It resolves to NO if he does not achieve a top 20 finish or withdraws after teeing off; however, a withdrawal prior to teeing off results in a Fair Market Price resolution. The market opened March 30, 2026, 6:15pm EDT, and will close after the event's outcome or by April 26, 2026, 10:00pm EDT.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Burns | $0.83 | $0.21 | 83% |
| Justin Rose | $0.74 | $0.31 | 74% |
| Jason Day | $0.73 | $0.32 | 73% |
| Shane Lowry | $0.66 | $0.39 | 65% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | $0.65 | $0.42 | 59% |
| Kurt Kitayama | $0.70 | $0.42 | 58% |
| Russell Henley | $0.50 | $0.55 | 50% |
| Chris Gotterup | $0.53 | $0.52 | 49% |
| Gary Woodland | $0.48 | $0.64 | 48% |
| Adam Scott | $0.47 | $0.54 | 46% |
| Ben Griffin | $0.45 | $0.73 | 42% |
| Akshay Bhatia | $0.40 | $0.63 | 41% |
| Harris English | $0.40 | $0.76 | 41% |
| Aaron Rai | $0.40 | $0.75 | 40% |
| Sepp Straka | $0.40 | $0.75 | 40% |
| Wyndham Clark | $0.60 | $1.00 | 39% |
| Ryan Gerard | $0.39 | $0.70 | 38% |
| Carlos Ortiz | $0.10 | $1.00 | 36% |
| Jake Knapp | $0.41 | $0.66 | 34% |
| Matthew McCarty | $0.38 | $0.79 | 33% |
| Max Homa | $0.32 | $0.73 | 32% |
| J.J. Spaun | $0.29 | $0.82 | 31% |
| Michael Brennan | $0.37 | $0.78 | 31% |
| Keegan Bradley | $0.45 | $0.72 | 28% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | $0.35 | $0.83 | 28% |
| Viktor Hovland | $0.30 | $0.88 | 28% |
| Sergio Garcia | $0.28 | $0.83 | 26% |
| Si Woo Kim | $0.37 | $0.75 | 26% |
| Tom McKibbin | $0.36 | $1.00 | 26% |
| Hao-Tong Li | $0.40 | $0.75 | 25% |
| Cameron Smith | $0.24 | $0.88 | 24% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $0.29 | $0.77 | 24% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | $0.22 | $0.82 | 23% |
| Dustin Johnson | $0.23 | $0.83 | 20% |
| Nick Taylor | $0.35 | $0.68 | 20% |
| Corey Conners | $0.19 | $0.91 | 19% |
| Casey Jarvis | $0.10 | $1.00 | 18% |
| Brian Campbell | $0.38 | $1.00 | 16% |
| John Keefer | $0.10 | $1.00 | 16% |
| Marco Penge | $0.17 | $0.94 | 16% |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | $0.10 | $1.00 | 16% |
| Zach Johnson | $0.10 | $1.00 | 16% |
| Brian Harman | $0.10 | $1.00 | 15% |
| Michael Kim | $0.16 | $0.92 | 15% |
| Nicolas Echavarria | $0.10 | $1.00 | 15% |
| Sami Valimaki | $0.09 | $1.00 | 14% |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | $0.10 | $1.00 | 13% |
| Andrew Novak | $0.29 | $1.00 | 12% |
| Harry Hall | $0.15 | $1.00 | 11% |
| Min Woo Lee | $0.17 | $0.93 | 11% |
| Davis Riley | $0.80 | $1.00 | 10% |
| Fifa Laopakdee | $0.30 | $1.00 | 10% |
| Fred Couples | $0.10 | $1.00 | 10% |
| Jose Maria Olazabal | $0.10 | $1.00 | 10% |
| Max Greyserman | $0.10 | $1.00 | 10% |
| Mike Weir | $0.14 | $1.00 | 10% |
| Patrick Cantlay | $0.16 | $0.99 | 10% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | $0.09 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Angel Cabrera | $0.20 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Bubba Watson | $0.10 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Daniel Berger | $0.10 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Ethan Fang | $0.10 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Naoyuki Kataoka | $0.44 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Ryan Fox | $0.10 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Brandon Holtz | $0.10 | $1.00 | 8% |
| Jackson Herrington | $0.10 | $1.00 | 8% |
| Mason Howell | $0.10 | $1.00 | 8% |
| Sungjae Im | $0.31 | $1.00 | 8% |
| Danny Willett | $0.10 | $1.00 | 7% |
| Maverick McNealy | $0.17 | $0.91 | 7% |
| Robert MacIntyre | $0.09 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Vijay Singh | $0.08 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Alex Noren | $0.09 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Charl Schwartzel | $0.09 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Sam Stevens | $0.56 | $0.94 | 4% |
| Mateo Pulcini | $0.26 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Scottie Scheffler | $0.94 | $0.10 | 94% |
| Rory McIlroy | $0.94 | $0.10 | 90% |
| Xander Schauffele | $0.88 | $0.22 | 85% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $0.77 | $0.29 | 77% |
| Patrick Reed | $0.77 | $0.34 | 72% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $0.67 | $0.50 | 67% |
| Cameron Young | $0.58 | $0.47 | 58% |
| Jordan Spieth | $0.57 | $0.48 | 55% |
| Ludvig Aberg | $0.53 | $0.48 | 53% |
| Brooks Koepka | $0.47 | $0.58 | 49% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $0.52 | $0.55 | 48% |
| Justin Thomas | $0.48 | $0.60 | 42% |
| Bryson DeChambeau | $0.33 | $0.80 | 32% |
| Jon Rahm | $0.26 | $0.78 | 25% |
| Collin Morikawa | $0.21 | $0.82 | 20% |
Market Discussion
The market discussion primarily shows strong confidence from traders, with most visible posts indicating "Yes" predictions for various golfers such as Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Cameron Young, Sam Burns, and Patrick Reed to finish in the top 20. There are no explicit arguments for "No" outcomes. This aligns with the very high current probabilities for top players, suggesting a consensus among traders that prominent golfers are highly likely to achieve a Top 20 finish.
5. Are 2026 Strokes Gained Leaders Known Before Masters?
| Strokes Gained Data | Not available for 2026 pre-Masters events [^] |
|---|---|
| OWGR Top 50 Requirement | Requires current ranking close to 2026 Masters [^], [^], [^], [^] |
| PGA Tour Schedule | 2026 schedule confirmed [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^] |
Specific Strokes Gained data for future events is currently unavailable. It is not possible to identify which golfers, currently ranked in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) top 50, will demonstrate top-quartile performance in both 'Strokes Gained: Approach' and 'Strokes Gained: Around the Green' across the three PGA Tour events immediately preceding the 2026 Masters. The research indicates that specific performance data for individual golfers in future tournaments does not exist, therefore preventing the compilation of a definitive list based on the provided criteria.
The 2026 PGA Tour schedule is confirmed, but detailed statistics are not. The schedule for the 2026 PGA Tour season, including events such as THE PLAYERS Championship in March 2026 [^] and the Valero Texas Open [^], [^], has been released. However, detailed statistical breakdowns for individual player performance in 'Strokes Gained: Approach' and 'Strokes Gained: Around the Green' for these future tournaments are not available at this time [^], [^], [^].
Granular data and updated rankings are necessary for an answer. To accurately determine which golfers meet the specified criteria, detailed Strokes Gained statistics for all participating golfers in the relevant tournaments, along with a current Official World Golf Ranking close to the 2026 Masters, would be required [^], [^], [^], [^]. Without access to this comprehensive and granular player performance data, a qualifying list cannot be produced.
6. Which Masters Golfers Meet Specific Cut and Finish Criteria?
| Corey Conners Eligibility | Disqualified by a T8 finish in 2023 [^] |
|---|---|
| Tom Hoge Cut Record | Made 3 of 4 cuts, not 4 of 5 [^] |
| Jason Day Eligibility | Disqualified by a T14 finish in 2022 [^], [^] |
No players fully met the specific Augusta National performance criteria. Research found no individuals who were not past Masters champions, made the cut in at least four of their last five appearances, and simultaneously failed to secure a Top 20 finish in any of those same five appearances. The comprehensive search indicated that while some players satisfied certain conditions, none aligned with all three requirements for consistent, but not top-tier, performance.
Several players demonstrated strong cut-making but achieved Top 20 finishes. Corey Conners, for instance, consistently made the cut in multiple recent Masters appearances. However, his T8 finish in 2023 rendered him ineligible for the "failed to secure a Top 20 finish" criterion [^]. Similarly, Jason Day made the cut in four of his last five appearances at Augusta National. He was disqualified from the defined criteria due to his T14 finish in 2022, which prevented him from meeting the requirement of having no Top 20 finishes [^], [^].
Other players failed to meet the required cut-making consistency. Tom Hoge, while not a past Masters champion, did not satisfy the condition of making the cut in at least four of his last five appearances. He made the cut in only three of his four appearances, having missed the cut in 2022 [^]. This prevented him from meeting the necessary frequency of making the cut.
7. Which Players' Masters 'Top 20 Finish' Odds Shifted 15% Pre-Tournament?
| 15% 'Top 20 Finish' Odds Shift (72 hrs pre-round 1) | Not explicitly available [^] |
|---|---|
| Consistently Favored 'Top 20 Finish' | Scottie Scheffler [^], [^], [^] |
| Popular 'Top 20 Finish' Bet | Bryson DeChambeau [^] |
No specific players experienced significant 'Top 20 Finish' odds shifts. The research did not explicitly identify players who underwent a betting line shift of 15% or more in their 'Top 20 Finish' odds during the final 72 hours before the first round of the 2026 Masters. While general betting discussions were available, they did not pinpoint specific odds movements of the requested magnitude within the precise pre-tournament timeframe.
General insights provided broader context on 'Top 20 Finish' betting favorites. Despite the absence of specific data regarding significant shifts, available sources offered general perspectives on 'Top 20 Finish' odds for the 2026 Masters. Scottie Scheffler was consistently favored across major sportsbooks [^], [^], [^], and Bryson DeChambeau was frequently mentioned as a popular bet in this category [^]. Other players, including Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy, were also often discussed in betting contexts [^], [^]. However, no player's 'Top 20 Finish' odds were found to have shifted by 15% or more within the crucial 72-hour period leading up to the tournament.
Reported odds movements occurred after the first round commenced. One source indicated that Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler's odds improved, while Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau's odds declined 'heading into Friday' [^]. Given the typical Masters schedule, where play begins on a Thursday, these reported changes would have transpired after the first round was already underway. Consequently, these shifts fall outside the specified timeframe of the final 72 hours before the tournament's commencement, and detailed percentage changes meeting the 15% threshold for 'Top 20 Finish' odds were not provided for the pre-tournament window.
8. Which 2026 Masters Debutants Have Recent Major Achievements?
| Anticipated Debutants | Approximately 22 golfers [^] |
|---|---|
| Named Debutant | Chris Gotterup [^] |
| PGA Tour Signature Event Wins/Top 5 Major Finishes (12 months prior) | No specific data available for debutants or second-time participants [^], [^] |
The 2026 Masters tournament anticipates approximately 22 debutants at Augusta National. Around 22 golfers are expected to make their first appearance at Augusta National for the 2026 tournament [^]. Among these anticipated first-time participants, Chris Gotterup has been explicitly identified as a debutant [^]. Several other sources also discuss the overall player field, including those making their initial appearance [^], [^], [^], [^].
Specific performance data for debutants or second-time participants is unavailable. The available research does not provide concrete facts or statistics detailing whether any of these identified debutants or potential second-time participants have secured a win at a PGA Tour 'Signature Event' or achieved a top-5 finish in another major championship, such as the PGA Championship, U.S. Open, or The Open Championship, within the 12 months leading up to the 2026 tournament. While general tour overviews and rankings, including ESPN's 2026 PGA TOUR Wins Rankings [^] and the 2026 PGA Tour overview [^], offer broad information, they lack the specific granular player performance data needed to address these qualifying criteria for individual players.
9. What Performance Changes Did Top 30 Golfers Make in 2026?
| Top 30 OWGR Players with Changes | At least three players made significant performance-related changes in 2026 (Research findings) [^] |
|---|---|
| Ludvig Åberg's Equipment Changes | Two major equipment changes (Golfmagic [^]) |
| Wyndham Clark's Caddie Status | Split with his caddie (Public discussion [^]) |
Several Top 30 golfers made significant equipment or caddie changes for 2026. Within the 2026 calendar year, multiple players currently ranked in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) Top 30 have made publicly reported, non-trivial equipment or caddie changes, potentially impacting their performance at The Masters. Ludvig Åberg initiated 2026 with two significant equipment adjustments, as reported by Golfmagic [^]. His current OWGR position can be confirmed through official rankings [^], [^].
Caddie changes also introduce significant variables for top players. Wyndham Clark experienced a major adjustment to his professional support team following a publicly discussed caddie split [^]. While the precise timing of this split concerning 2026 is critical, it presents a notable variable for his upcoming performance. Similarly, Collin Morikawa's caddie was reportedly dismissed, resulting in a new caddie partnership for him [^]. Both Clark and Morikawa are typically high-ranking players, and their exact 2026 OWGR positions can be verified with recent updates [^], [^], [^].
Rickie Fowler also made extensive equipment changes recently. He altered nearly every club in his bag, as detailed by Golf.com [^]. For Fowler, his current OWGR standing requires verification to confirm his inclusion within the Top 30 for the 2026 Masters [^], [^], [^]. These reported changes collectively introduce significant variables for these players as they prepare for the 2026 Masters.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: April 27, 2026
- Closes: April 27, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Related News
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 18 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXPGATOP20-VATO26-CKIM: NO (Apr 04, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-VATO26-CYOU: NO (Apr 04, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-VATO26-LGRI: NO (Apr 04, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-VATO26-FCAP: NO (Apr 04, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-VATO26-NHAR: NO (Apr 04, 2026)
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