The Masters: To Make the Cut
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Rory McIlroy consistently makes the cut, doing so in 15 of 16 Masters appearances.
- Direct comparison of player Strokes Gained data to Masters averages is not possible.
- The 2026 Masters field features an average OWGR of 67.8 with 91 participants.
- Wyndham Clark initiated significant caddie and equipment changes early in 2026.
- The market experienced significant price spikes on April 6, 9, and 10, 2026.
- The 2026 Masters Tournament will follow five key preceding PGA Tour events.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Maria Olazabal | 20.0% | 10.1% | As a past champion, his age makes consistently making the cut difficult at this level. |
| Collin Morikawa | 60.0% | 48.8% | A major champion and top-ranked player, he consistently performs well in elite tournaments. |
| Fred Couples | 7.0% | 2.7% | An older past champion, his current competitive form generally makes making the cut challenging. |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 63.0% | 52.4% | A major champion, he possesses the skill set to contend and typically makes cuts in big events. |
| Brandon Holtz | 1.0% | 0.3% | Limited experience at this level makes making The Masters cut a significant challenge. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Keegan Bradley
📈 April 10, 2026: 26.0pp spike
Price increased from 59.0% to 85.0%
Outcome: Michael Brennan
📈 April 09, 2026: 43.0pp spike
Price increased from 52.0% to 95.0%
Outcome: Ludvig Aberg
📈 April 06, 2026: 85.0pp spike
Price increased from 0.0% to 85.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The provided page content "The Masters: To Make the Cut Odds & Predictions 2026" does not contain the specific contract rules, resolution conditions, key dates, or special settlement conditions for this market. Therefore, I cannot summarize what triggers a YES or NO resolution, key dates, or any special settlement conditions based solely on the text provided.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Rose | $0.99 | $0.03 | 99% |
| Patrick Reed | $0.99 | $0.02 | 99% |
| Kurt Kitayama | $0.98 | $0.06 | 98% |
| Sam Burns | $0.98 | $0.06 | 98% |
| Scottie Scheffler | $0.98 | $0.06 | 98% |
| Rory McIlroy | $1.00 | $0.07 | 97% |
| Shane Lowry | $0.98 | $0.06 | 97% |
| Xander Schauffele | $1.00 | $0.03 | 97% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | $0.95 | $0.10 | 95% |
| Gary Woodland | $0.94 | $0.11 | 94% |
| Jordan Spieth | $0.94 | $0.11 | 94% |
| Aaron Rai | $0.93 | $0.12 | 93% |
| Chris Gotterup | $0.94 | $0.12 | 93% |
| Jason Day | $1.00 | $0.07 | 93% |
| Justin Thomas | $0.93 | $0.08 | 93% |
| Sam Stevens | $0.92 | $0.16 | 92% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $0.95 | $0.10 | 90% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $0.99 | $0.10 | 90% |
| Brooks Koepka | $0.95 | $0.12 | 88% |
| Adam Scott | $0.93 | $0.13 | 87% |
| Ben Griffin | $0.87 | $0.14 | 87% |
| Hao-Tong Li | $0.91 | $0.13 | 87% |
| Jake Knapp | $0.87 | $0.21 | 87% |
| Nick Taylor | $0.93 | $0.12 | 86% |
| Sepp Straka | $0.87 | $0.14 | 86% |
| Keegan Bradley | $0.90 | $0.15 | 85% |
| Russell Henley | $0.90 | $0.18 | 83% |
| Wyndham Clark | $0.88 | $0.17 | 83% |
| Akshay Bhatia | $0.86 | $0.19 | 82% |
| Cameron Young | $0.90 | $0.18 | 82% |
| Harris English | $0.88 | $0.20 | 82% |
| Ludvig Aberg | $0.87 | $0.18 | 82% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $0.86 | $0.20 | 81% |
| Matthew McCarty | $0.91 | $0.18 | 81% |
| Max Homa | $0.80 | $0.22 | 80% |
| Michael Brennan | $0.89 | $0.19 | 80% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | $0.85 | $0.21 | 79% |
| Sergio Garcia | $0.86 | $0.21 | 79% |
| Ryan Gerard | $0.82 | $0.23 | 77% |
| Si Woo Kim | $0.73 | $0.54 | 75% |
| J.J. Spaun | $0.80 | $0.27 | 73% |
| Dustin Johnson | $0.72 | $0.29 | 72% |
| Cameron Smith | $0.68 | $0.36 | 70% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $0.79 | $0.30 | 70% |
| Corey Conners | $0.68 | $0.36 | 68% |
| Bryson DeChambeau | $0.62 | $0.40 | 63% |
| Brian Campbell | $0.85 | $0.40 | 61% |
| Collin Morikawa | $0.64 | $0.38 | 60% |
| Viktor Hovland | $0.69 | $0.41 | 60% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | $0.80 | $0.53 | 59% |
| Daniel Berger | $0.56 | $0.47 | 57% |
| Michael Kim | $0.58 | $0.54 | 57% |
| Zach Johnson | $0.56 | $0.50 | 51% |
| Charl Schwartzel | $0.50 | $0.63 | 50% |
| Sungjae Im | $0.72 | $0.51 | 50% |
| Marco Penge | $0.49 | $0.59 | 49% |
| Ethan Fang | $0.48 | $0.55 | 48% |
| Tom McKibbin | $0.48 | $0.65 | 48% |
| Andrew Novak | $0.59 | $0.53 | 47% |
| Jon Rahm | $0.51 | $0.55 | 45% |
| Min Woo Lee | $0.40 | $0.65 | 40% |
| Harry Hall | $0.39 | $0.72 | 39% |
| John Keefer | $0.41 | $0.66 | 34% |
| Maverick McNealy | $0.34 | $0.67 | 34% |
| Patrick Cantlay | $0.37 | $0.66 | 34% |
| Alex Noren | $0.33 | $0.78 | 33% |
| Danny Willett | $0.32 | $0.76 | 30% |
| Bubba Watson | $0.33 | $0.73 | 28% |
| Ryan Fox | $0.35 | $0.84 | 22% |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | $0.21 | $0.84 | 21% |
| Jose Maria Olazabal | $0.19 | $0.85 | 20% |
| Robert MacIntyre | $0.20 | $0.90 | 20% |
| Casey Jarvis | $0.29 | $0.83 | 18% |
| Mason Howell | $0.19 | $0.94 | 18% |
| Brian Harman | $0.16 | $1.00 | 16% |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | $0.21 | $0.87 | 16% |
| Jackson Herrington | $0.10 | $0.91 | 10% |
| Max Greyserman | $0.09 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Nicolas Echavarria | $0.09 | $1.00 | 8% |
| Fred Couples | $0.07 | $0.96 | 7% |
| Vijay Singh | $0.10 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Angel Cabrera | $0.02 | $0.99 | 4% |
| Carlos Ortiz | $0.07 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Sami Valimaki | $0.04 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Davis Riley | $0.09 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Fifa Laopakdee | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Brandon Holtz | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Mateo Pulcini | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Mike Weir | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Naoyuki Kataoka | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What is Jake Knapp's 2026 Masters Tournament Outlook?
| 2026 Masters Tournament Dates | April 9-12, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Jake Knapp's Pre-Masters Data | Not available in research [^] |
| Jake Knapp Injury Reports | None disclosed in research [^] |
6. What is Rory McIlroy's historical performance at the Masters?
| Cut-made percentage | 93.75% [^] |
|---|---|
| Average finishing position | 15.6th [^] |
| Average Strokes Gained: Total (per round) | +1.68 [^] |
7. Why Can't Player Strokes Gained Be Compared to Masters Averages?
| Player SG:Approach (Jan-Apr 2026) | Not available in research [^] |
|---|---|
| Player SG:Around the Green (Jan-Apr 2026) | Not available in research [^] |
| 5-year Masters Cut SG:APP/ARG Average | Not explicitly extracted in research [^] |
8. How Does the 2026 Masters Field Strength Compare Historically?
| 2026 Masters Participants | 91 [^] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Masters Average OWGR | Approximately 67.8 [^] |
| 2023 Masters Average OWGR | Approximately 66.5 (88 participants) [^] |
9. How Have Wyndham Clark's Recent Caddie and Equipment Changes Impacted Performance?
| Caddie Split Timing | Just before 2026 Valspar Championship [^], [^], [^] |
|---|---|
| Equipment Contract Status | Ended full-line Titleist contract in 2026 [^] |
| Valspar Championship Result | Tied 59th (+8) [^], [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 10, 2026
- Closes: May 10, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Related News
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 9 resolved YES, 11 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-CKIM: NO (Apr 04, 2026)
- KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-CYOU: NO (Apr 04, 2026)
- KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-LGRI: NO (Apr 04, 2026)
- KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-FCAP: NO (Apr 04, 2026)
- KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-NHAR: NO (Apr 04, 2026)
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.