Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Patrick Reed to make the cut at the 2026 Masters, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Rory McIlroy consistently makes the cut, doing so in 15 of 16 Masters appearances.
  • Direct comparison of player Strokes Gained data to Masters averages is not possible.
  • The 2026 Masters field features an average OWGR of 67.8 with 91 participants.
  • Wyndham Clark initiated significant caddie and equipment changes early in 2026.
  • The market experienced significant price spikes on April 6, 9, and 10, 2026.
  • The 2026 Masters Tournament will follow five key preceding PGA Tour events.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Jose Maria Olazabal 20.0% 10.1% As a past champion, his age makes consistently making the cut difficult at this level.
Collin Morikawa 60.0% 48.8% A major champion and top-ranked player, he consistently performs well in elite tournaments.
Fred Couples 7.0% 2.7% An older past champion, his current competitive form generally makes making the cut challenging.
Bryson DeChambeau 63.0% 52.4% A major champion, he possesses the skill set to contend and typically makes cuts in big events.
Brandon Holtz 1.0% 0.3% Limited experience at this level makes making The Masters cut a significant challenge.

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This market's price chart displays a sharp and immediate upward trend. The most significant movement was an 85.0 percentage point surge on April 6, which propelled the price from 0.0% to 85.0% almost instantly. This was followed by a 13.0 point spike to a market high of 97.0% on April 9, before a 9.0 point correction brought the price down to its current level of 88.0%. The initial, massive spike likely reflects the market's opening and the immediate establishment of a strong consensus, rather than a reaction to a specific external news event.
The price action reveals a strongly bullish sentiment among traders. The peak of 97.0% has established a clear short-term resistance level, while the mid-80s percent range, where the price initially settled, may now serve as a support level. The total volume of nearly 30,000 contracts, with activity picking up around the most volatile days, suggests growing conviction and active participation. Overall, the chart indicates that while traders perceive the outcome as highly probable, there is some recent uncertainty or profit-taking that has prevented the price from sustaining its peak, leading to consolidation around the current 88.0% probability.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Keegan Bradley

📈 April 10, 2026: 26.0pp spike

Price increased from 59.0% to 85.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

Outcome: Michael Brennan

📈 April 09, 2026: 43.0pp spike

Price increased from 52.0% to 95.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

Outcome: Ludvig Aberg

📈 April 06, 2026: 85.0pp spike

Price increased from 0.0% to 85.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

4. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

The provided page content "The Masters: To Make the Cut Odds & Predictions 2026" does not contain the specific contract rules, resolution conditions, key dates, or special settlement conditions for this market. Therefore, I cannot summarize what triggers a YES or NO resolution, key dates, or any special settlement conditions based solely on the text provided.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Justin Rose $0.99 $0.03 99%
Patrick Reed $0.99 $0.02 99%
Kurt Kitayama $0.98 $0.06 98%
Sam Burns $0.98 $0.06 98%
Scottie Scheffler $0.98 $0.06 98%
Rory McIlroy $1.00 $0.07 97%
Shane Lowry $0.98 $0.06 97%
Xander Schauffele $1.00 $0.03 97%
Jacob Bridgeman $0.95 $0.10 95%
Gary Woodland $0.94 $0.11 94%
Jordan Spieth $0.94 $0.11 94%
Aaron Rai $0.93 $0.12 93%
Chris Gotterup $0.94 $0.12 93%
Jason Day $1.00 $0.07 93%
Justin Thomas $0.93 $0.08 93%
Sam Stevens $0.92 $0.16 92%
Hideki Matsuyama $0.95 $0.10 90%
Tommy Fleetwood $0.99 $0.10 90%
Brooks Koepka $0.95 $0.12 88%
Adam Scott $0.93 $0.13 87%
Ben Griffin $0.87 $0.14 87%
Hao-Tong Li $0.91 $0.13 87%
Jake Knapp $0.87 $0.21 87%
Nick Taylor $0.93 $0.12 86%
Sepp Straka $0.87 $0.14 86%
Keegan Bradley $0.90 $0.15 85%
Russell Henley $0.90 $0.18 83%
Wyndham Clark $0.88 $0.17 83%
Akshay Bhatia $0.86 $0.19 82%
Cameron Young $0.90 $0.18 82%
Harris English $0.88 $0.20 82%
Ludvig Aberg $0.87 $0.18 82%
Matt Fitzpatrick $0.86 $0.20 81%
Matthew McCarty $0.91 $0.18 81%
Max Homa $0.80 $0.22 80%
Michael Brennan $0.89 $0.19 80%
Kristoffer Reitan $0.85 $0.21 79%
Sergio Garcia $0.86 $0.21 79%
Ryan Gerard $0.82 $0.23 77%
Si Woo Kim $0.73 $0.54 75%
J.J. Spaun $0.80 $0.27 73%
Dustin Johnson $0.72 $0.29 72%
Cameron Smith $0.68 $0.36 70%
Tyrrell Hatton $0.79 $0.30 70%
Corey Conners $0.68 $0.36 68%
Bryson DeChambeau $0.62 $0.40 63%
Brian Campbell $0.85 $0.40 61%
Collin Morikawa $0.64 $0.38 60%
Viktor Hovland $0.69 $0.41 60%
Nicolai Hojgaard $0.80 $0.53 59%
Daniel Berger $0.56 $0.47 57%
Michael Kim $0.58 $0.54 57%
Zach Johnson $0.56 $0.50 51%
Charl Schwartzel $0.50 $0.63 50%
Sungjae Im $0.72 $0.51 50%
Marco Penge $0.49 $0.59 49%
Ethan Fang $0.48 $0.55 48%
Tom McKibbin $0.48 $0.65 48%
Andrew Novak $0.59 $0.53 47%
Jon Rahm $0.51 $0.55 45%
Min Woo Lee $0.40 $0.65 40%
Harry Hall $0.39 $0.72 39%
John Keefer $0.41 $0.66 34%
Maverick McNealy $0.34 $0.67 34%
Patrick Cantlay $0.37 $0.66 34%
Alex Noren $0.33 $0.78 33%
Danny Willett $0.32 $0.76 30%
Bubba Watson $0.33 $0.73 28%
Ryan Fox $0.35 $0.84 22%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen $0.21 $0.84 21%
Jose Maria Olazabal $0.19 $0.85 20%
Robert MacIntyre $0.20 $0.90 20%
Casey Jarvis $0.29 $0.83 18%
Mason Howell $0.19 $0.94 18%
Brian Harman $0.16 $1.00 16%
Rasmus Hojgaard $0.21 $0.87 16%
Jackson Herrington $0.10 $0.91 10%
Max Greyserman $0.09 $1.00 9%
Nicolas Echavarria $0.09 $1.00 8%
Fred Couples $0.07 $0.96 7%
Vijay Singh $0.10 $1.00 5%
Angel Cabrera $0.02 $0.99 4%
Carlos Ortiz $0.07 $0.99 3%
Sami Valimaki $0.04 $0.99 3%
Davis Riley $0.09 $1.00 2%
Fifa Laopakdee $0.02 $0.99 2%
Aldrich Potgieter $0.01 $1.00 1%
Brandon Holtz $0.01 $1.00 1%
Mateo Pulcini $0.01 $1.00 1%
Mike Weir $0.01 $1.00 1%
Naoyuki Kataoka $0.01 $1.00 1%

Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

5. What is Jake Knapp's 2026 Masters Tournament Outlook?

2026 Masters Tournament DatesApril 9-12, 2026 [^]
Jake Knapp's Pre-Masters DataNot available in research [^]
Jake Knapp Injury ReportsNone disclosed in research [^]
The 2026 Masters Tournament will follow five key PGA events. The Masters is scheduled to take place from April 9-12, 2026. The five PGA Tour events immediately preceding this major include the Valero Texas Open (April 2-5), the Texas Children's Houston Open (March 26-29), the Valspar Championship (March 19-22), THE PLAYERS Championship (March 12-15), and the Arnold Palmer Invitational (March 5-8) [^].
Specific performance data for Jake Knapp is currently unavailable. The provided research does not contain details regarding Jake Knapp's Strokes Gained: Total or number of Top-10 finishes for these specific pre-Masters events in 2026. While several sources for player performance data were identified, they did not yield the requested information for Knapp during the 2026 pre-Masters period [^].
No injury reports were found for Jake Knapp during this period. The available research does not include any disclosed injury reports concerning Jake Knapp for the timeframe leading up to the 2026 Masters Tournament. However, an injury report for another player was noted during the research [^].

6. What is Rory McIlroy's historical performance at the Masters?

Cut-made percentage93.75% [^]
Average finishing position15.6th [^]
Average Strokes Gained: Total (per round)+1.68 [^]
Rory McIlroy consistently makes the cut at the Masters Tournament. Over his 16 appearances in the Masters, he has successfully made the cut in 15 instances, resulting in an impressive historical cut-made percentage of 93.75% specifically at Augusta National [^].
His performance at Augusta National demonstrates strong overall play. McIlroy's consistent results at the tournament have led to an average finishing position of 15.6th across all his starts [^]. A key metric highlighting his comprehensive game is an average of +1.68 Strokes Gained: Total per round at Augusta National, reflecting his strong performance against the field [^].

7. Why Can't Player Strokes Gained Be Compared to Masters Averages?

Player SG:Approach (Jan-Apr 2026)Not available in research [^]
Player SG:Around the Green (Jan-Apr 2026)Not available in research [^]
5-year Masters Cut SG:APP/ARG AverageNot explicitly extracted in research [^]
A direct comparison of the player's 2026 statistics is not possible. The specific player's Strokes Gained: Approach (SG:APP) and Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG:ARG) for January 1 to April 1, 2026, were not provided in the research materials [^]. The absence of this current performance data prevents a direct comparison.
Historical Masters averages were also not explicitly retrieved for this analysis. The required five-year average for SG:APP and SG:ARG among players who successfully made the cut at The Masters was not extracted or presented in the research. While sources such as Data Golf and other specialized analysis sites are known to contain historical tournament statistics, including Strokes Gained data, the specific averages needed for this comparison were not directly obtained [^]. Therefore, without both the player's 2026 performance data and the specific historical Masters averages, a comprehensive, fact-based comparison cannot be delivered.

8. How Does the 2026 Masters Field Strength Compare Historically?

2026 Masters Participants91 [^]
2026 Masters Average OWGRApproximately 67.8 [^]
2023 Masters Average OWGRApproximately 66.5 (88 participants) [^]
The 2026 Masters Tournament features an average OWGR of 67.8. The final confirmed field for the 2026 Masters Tournament comprises 91 participants [^]. Based on the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) as of late March 2026 for these players, the average OWGR of the field is approximately 67.8 [^]. This calculation includes all invited players, from the top-ranked contenders to past champions and amateurs, whose rankings span a wide range [^].
Comparison data reveals the 2026 field strength is relatively consistent. An analysis of available data for past Masters events indicates their average field strength for comparison. For the 2023 Masters, which featured 88 participants, the average OWGR was approximately 66.5 [^]. The 2022 Masters, with a field of 90 players, had an average OWGR of approximately 68.2 [^]. While a comparison to the average field strength of the prior five Masters tournaments was requested, detailed OWGR data is specifically available for the 2022 and 2023 events [^], but not for the 2021, 2024, or 2025 Masters. Considering the available data for 2022 and 2023, the average OWGR for these two prior Masters tournaments is approximately 67.35. The 2026 Masters field's average OWGR of 67.8 is slightly higher than this two-year average, suggesting a comparable, or marginally stronger (higher average rank implies a slightly weaker field if lower numbers are stronger), field strength to recent Masters tournaments for which data is available [^].

9. How Have Wyndham Clark's Recent Caddie and Equipment Changes Impacted Performance?

Caddie Split TimingJust before 2026 Valspar Championship [^], [^], [^]
Equipment Contract StatusEnded full-line Titleist contract in 2026 [^]
Valspar Championship ResultTied 59th (+8) [^], [^]
Wyndham Clark made significant caddie changes early in 2026. He initiated a "shock split" with his long-time caddie, John Ellis, just two days prior to the 2026 Valspar Championship, with Ellis stating that "things just weren't right" [^], [^], [^]. Clark subsequently hired Matt Achatz to caddie for him at the Valspar Championship, and this partnership was noted as his current one as of the 2026 Masters [^], [^].
Clark also gained flexibility by changing equipment sponsorship. Regarding equipment, Clark is no longer bound by a full-line contract with Titleist in 2026, which grants him greater flexibility in selecting his clubs [^]. This new freedom was demonstrated early in the year, as he made his fourth driver swap of 2026 at the Genesis Invitational [^]. The termination of his comprehensive contract indicates potential changes across his entire golf bag [^].
Performance declined following these significant changes, particularly the caddie split. Following these changes, especially the caddie split, Clark's performance has shown a clear downward trend, with reports indicating "struggles persist" [^]. At the 2026 Valspar Championship, where his new caddie debuted, Clark finished tied for 59th place with a total score of +8 (72-72-73-75) [^], [^]. While a general struggle is noted, specific detailed performance trends in Strokes Gained categories reflecting this period were not provided in the research.

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Catalyst analysis unavailable.

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: May 10, 2026
  • Closes: May 10, 2026

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.

13. Related News

14. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 9 resolved YES, 11 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-CKIM: NO (Apr 04, 2026)
  • KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-CYOU: NO (Apr 04, 2026)
  • KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-LGRI: NO (Apr 04, 2026)
  • KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-FCAP: NO (Apr 04, 2026)
  • KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-NHAR: NO (Apr 04, 2026)