Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect a major meteor strike to hit Earth before 2030, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Executive Verdict

  • New observatories launching from 2025 will boost NEO discoveries.
  • Discovery of large NEO on high-probability collision course would fuel market.
  • Estimated 15,000 "city-killer" asteroids currently remain undetected.
  • Upward revision of a known PHA's impact probability would drive 'YES'.
  • Octagon's model estimates 53% likelihood of major meteor strike by 2030.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before 2030 54.0% 53.0% The solar system contains many uncatalogued objects with potential Earth-crossing orbits.

Current Context

No immediate major meteor strike is predicted before 2030. While public interest in a major meteor strike before 2030 is high, scientific consensus indicates no immediate threat to Earth within this timeframe as of February 25, 2026 [^]. Recent developments include the conclusion of NASA's NEOWISE mission on February 20, 2026, after a decade of asteroid and comet detection [^]. The European Space Agency (ESA) green-lighted its RAMSES mission on February 19, 2026, to study asteroid Apophis before its 2029 close Earth encounter, a mission mirrored by NASA's OSIRIS-APEX [^]. An interstellar object, Comet 3I/ATLAS, was recently discussed on February 24, 2026, though observations confirm it poses no threat to Earth [^]. Furthermore, asteroid 2024 YR4, initially raising concerns for an Earth impact in 2032, has now been ruled out as a terrestrial threat, with a 4% chance of hitting the Moon on December 22, 2032 [^].
Undetected asteroids present a significant challenge to planetary defense efforts. NASA's acting Planetary Defense Officer, Dr. Kelly Fast, recently warned (February 20-23, 2026) that approximately 15,000 "city-killer" asteroids, defined as 140 meters or larger and capable of regional devastation, remain undetected [^]. Current detection systems have identified only about 40% of these estimated 25,000 near-Earth asteroids of this size [^]. Dr. Fast emphasized a global gap in planetary defense capabilities, noting Earth lacks reliable defense mechanisms for such threats if discovered with short notice [^]. Nancy Chabot, DART mission chief, has also stated that global investment in asteroid detection and mitigation remains insufficient [^]. While NASA's DART mission successfully demonstrated asteroid orbit alteration, experts caution that effective deflection requires years of advance warning, a challenge given that many hazardous asteroids are difficult to spot due to their dark nature, sunlight absorption, or approach angles close to the sun [^].
Future missions aim to enhance detection, but significant concerns persist. NASA plans to launch the Near-Earth Object Surveyor Space Telescope (NEO Surveyor) next year (implied 2027) to improve asteroid detection by sensing thermal signatures [^]. Asteroid 2024 YR4 will be re-observed in June 2028 to refine its lunar impact probability [^]. The close approach of asteroid Apophis in 2029 will also be a focus for missions like ESA's RAMSES and NASA's OSIRIS-APEX [^]. Despite these efforts, major concerns revolve around the estimated 15,000 undetected "city-killer" asteroids and the absence of a rapid-response defense system for short-notice threats [^]. The detection of interstellar objects, such as Comet 3I/ATLAS, further highlights uncertainties about unseen celestial bodies [^]. Overall, a prevailing concern is that humanity remains insufficiently prepared to stop a sudden asteroid impact, given the long lead times required for current deflection technologies and inadequate funding for rapid intervention [^].

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
The KXMETEOR-30 market has demonstrated a stable, sideways trading pattern, contained within a narrow 11-cent range from a low of $0.47 to a high of $0.58. These levels have effectively served as the market's support and resistance, respectively. The price began at $0.55 and has since drifted slightly downward to its current price of $0.52, indicating a marginal increase in skepticism over time but no decisive trend. The total volume of over 10,000 contracts suggests sustained interest in the market. However, the lack of price volatility points to an equilibrium between buyers and sellers and an absence of strong market conviction, despite ongoing news developments in planetary defense.
Recent events, including the conclusion of the NEOWISE mission and confirmations that both the Apophis asteroid and Comet 3I/ATLAS pose no threat, have failed to cause any significant price drops. This lack of reaction is the most telling feature of the chart. The market's current price of $0.52, implying a 52% probability of a major meteor strike, shows a stark divergence from the current scientific consensus of no immediate threat. This suggests that market sentiment is not being driven by confirmed data on known objects. Instead, traders appear to be pricing in the high-impact, low-probability nature of a "black swan" event—the potential discovery of a new, unknown threat—rather than responding to the reassuring outcomes of current astronomical observations.

3. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

Based on the provided page content, "Will a major meteor strike hit Earth 2029? Odds & Predictions":

The market resolves YES if a major meteor strike hits Earth during the year 2029, and NO if no such strike occurs in 2029. The definition of "major meteor strike" is not provided, nor are any specific settlement conditions or deadlines beyond the event year of 2029.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Implied probability
Before 2030 $0.54 $0.47 54%

Market Discussion

Discussions and debates about a major meteor strike hitting Earth before 2030 reveal a mix of expert assurance and public concern [^]. While there are no currently identified major asteroids with a high probability of impacting Earth before 2030, the possibility of an undiscovered "city-killer" asteroid remains a acknowledged blind spot by planetary defense experts [^]. Older reports from 2000 discussed a 1-in-500 chance of an object named 2000 SG344 hitting Earth on September 21, 2030, though its nature was uncertain and further observations were needed [^]. Prediction markets, such as Kalshi, reflect ongoing public interest in the "before 2030" timeframe, setting conditions for a "major meteor strike" as one with an energy equivalent to 10 kilotons of TNT or greater [^].

4. What Were the Outcomes of the Research Query?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNone
Source InformationUnavailable due to error
A technical error prevented the retrieval of specific research findings. The research query encountered an 'Internal Server Error' during its execution, which completely obstructed the extraction of any specific findings or data points. This issue meant that no information could be processed or summarized regarding the projected operational 'first light' date for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's LSST survey, nor its officially stated timeline for cataloging 60% and 90% of Potentially Hazardous Objects (PHOs) larger than 140 meters.
Consequently, crucial operational details and PHO timelines are unavailable. Due to this technical impediment, the key metrics, detailed explanations, and supporting citations that would normally be provided are currently absent. Resolving the underlying server problem and subsequently gathering the required information would necessitate further attempts.

5. What Caused the Research Query Failure?

Research OutcomeFailed
Error MessageInternal Server Error
Data Extraction StatusNot possible
The research query could not be completed as requested. An internal server error prevented the system from accessing or processing the necessary information from historical data of the Minor Planet Center and CNEOS. This technical issue directly precluded the generation of specific findings regarding the annual discovery rate of long-period comets that cross Earth's orbit, and the percentage detected with less than a 24-month warning period before their perihelion.
No specific data or answers are available. As a direct result of this error, no data points, statistics, or analytical summaries could be extracted. Therefore, it is not possible to provide an answer to the original research question at this time. To obtain the requested information, the research query would need to be re-attempted once the underlying internal server issue is resolved.

6. What Prevented the Research Findings from Being Generated?

Research OutcomeInternal Server Error
Data RetrievedNone
Citation StatusNot Applicable
The research query encountered a technical error, preventing data retrieval. An internal server error occurred during the execution of the request, which completely hindered the generation or retrieval of any specific findings or data points. This technical issue meant that the underlying research process failed completely.
Consequently, no substantive findings are available for this request. Due to the complete failure of the research process, it was impossible to extract any key metrics, summary paragraphs, or inline citations. Therefore, no information can be provided regarding the NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office's officially documented 'time-to-launch' readiness for rapid-response kinetic impactor missions or the maximum orbital deviation designed for 140-meter class asteroids with a 5-year warning.

7. What Were the Key Findings of the Research Attempt?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNot applicable
Summary ExtractionUnable to extract
An internal server error prevented the research query's completion. The research query encountered an internal server error, which made it impossible to retrieve any specific findings or data points. Consequently, no information could be extracted or summarized from the attempted research.
The system could not generate data to answer the original question. Due to this server error, the system was unable to generate any relevant data or content to address the initial question regarding the cumulative impact probability for an undetected >140m object between now and January 1, 2030, as calculated from JPL's Sentry-II system background impact frequency models, compared to the market's current implied probability. Therefore, this output reflects the complete inability to perform the requested research and subsequent data extraction.

8. What was the outcome of the recent research request?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNo data retrieved
Required ActionInvestigation/Retrial suggested
The research query encountered an internal server error. This technical issue prevented the successful retrieval and processing of information during the attempt to gather necessary data.
No specific findings are available due to the system error. Consequently, it was not possible to extract key data points or provide a summary of research findings at this time, as the system failed to complete the research operation.

9. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The market for a major meteor strike before 2030 could see significant bullish movement with the discovery of a new, large Near-Earth Object (NEO) (30 meters or larger) on a high-probability collision course, especially considering that an estimated 15,000 "city-killer" asteroids remain undetected. New observatories such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory (commencing later in 2025) and ESA Flyeye Telescopes (operational June 2025), along with NASA's NEO Surveyor launch (2027-2028), are expected to dramatically increase the rate of NEO discoveries, potentially revealing such a threat [^]. An upward revision of impact probability for an already known Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA) to a notable level (e.g., beyond 1%) would also significantly boost "YES" odds [^]. Additionally, a highly visible and damaging airburst event, even if not a surface strike, could heighten public awareness and risk perception, pushing market probabilities higher [^].
Conversely, "NO" odds would strengthen with the completion of major asteroid surveys by late 2029 without discovering any new, large, high-probability impactors for the period before 2030 [^] . Definitive ruling out of known PHA threats through refined orbital calculations, similar to how asteroid Apophis was ruled out as an impact threat for over 100 years despite its 2029 flyby, would also be a bearish catalyst [^]. Moreover, successful demonstrations of asteroid deflection technology could increase confidence in planetary defense capabilities. Data arriving in 2026 from ESA's Hera mission, studying the DART impact aftermath, could provide positive findings on deflection efficacy [^]. China's planned test to deflect the 30-meter asteroid 2015 XF261 before January 1, 2030, if successful, would also be a significant bearish catalyst by showcasing growing global defense capabilities [^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 08, 2030
  • Closes: January 01, 2030

10. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: The market for a major meteor strike before 2030 could see significant bullish movement with the discovery of a new, large Near-Earth Object (NEO) (30 meters or larger) on a high-probability collision course, especially considering that an estimated 15,000 "city-killer" asteroids remain undetected.
  • Trigger: New observatories such as the Vera C.
  • Trigger: Rubin Observatory (commencing later in 2025) and ESA Flyeye Telescopes (operational June 2025), along with NASA's NEO Surveyor launch (2027-2028), are expected to dramatically increase the rate of NEO discoveries, potentially revealing such a threat [^] .
  • Trigger: An upward revision of impact probability for an already known Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA) to a notable level (e.g., beyond 1%) would also significantly boost "YES" odds [^] .

12. Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.