Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030?

Kalshi defines a major impact at 10 kilotons, unlike NASA's flexible approach. Kalshi's prediction market designates a "major" meteor impact by a clear 10 kiloton of TNT equivalent energy threshold, resolving to 'Yes' upon confirmation by NASA. In stark contrast, NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) does not employ a single, fixed energy or diameter threshold to formally label an event as "major". Instead, CNEOS utilizes a multi-faceted hazard assessment system that integrates kinetic energy, object size, impact probability, and potential consequences, communicating risks through specialized tools like the Torino Scale and the Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale.

A 10 kiloton impact is significant but smaller than historical events. The 10 kiloton threshold represents a substantial amount of energy, roughly two-thirds the yield of the atomic bomb detonated over Hiroshima. An object approximately 5 to 7 meters in diameter, depending on its composition and velocity, would be capable of producing a 10 kiloton airburst, which could cause localized damage, such as shattering windows over a wide radius. While detectable by global monitoring systems, this energy level is considerably less powerful than the 500-kiloton Chelyabinsk event or the 5-15 megaton Tunguska event, both of which had more widespread regional impacts. A 10 kiloton event falls at the lower end of events tracked by NASA for potential large-scale devastation, generally aligning with a Torino Scale 0 unless impact probability is exceptionally high.

Most 50-140 meter Near-Earth Objects remain undiscovered, posing an impact risk. As of early 2026, over 95% of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) in the 50-140 meter diameter range are still undiscovered, with some estimates indicating current discovery completeness is in the low single digits . This significant discovery gap persists even though a 2005 Congressional mandate directed NASA to find 90% of all 140 meter or larger NEOs by 2020, a goal currently only 42.3% to 44% achieved . Consequently, NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) models estimate the statistical probability of an impact from a 50-meter or larger undiscovered NEO occurring before January 1, 2030, to be between 0.4% and 0.8% .

Current survey limitations hinder detection, and new assets won't help before 2030. Existing ground-based optical surveys, such as the Catalina Sky Survey and Pan-STARRS, face constraints including observational limitations, geographic bias, and solar glare, which impede the detection of dimmer 50-140 meter objects. While future assets like the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, expected to begin full science operations around 2025 , and NASA's NEO Surveyor mission, with a launch planned no earlier than September 2027 or June 2028 , are designed to substantially improve discovery rates, their operational timelines mean their impact on identifying the undiscovered 50-140 meter population before 2030 will be minimal to non-existent .

Historical events demonstrate this undiscovered population presents a significant modern threat. This statistical risk is derived from historical impact rates, which indicate a Tunguska-scale event (involving a 50-60 meter object) occurs approximately every 500 to 1,000 years . This underscores a profound lack of warning capability for potential regional to multi-regional devastation from currently undiscovered objects. Past incidents, specifically the 1908 Tunguska event and the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor, highlight that such impacts remain a modern threat, with neither being detected in advance, thus reinforcing critical gaps in current survey infrastructure.

Data from 2019-2026 reveals a significant asteroid detection blind spot. A substantial fraction of newly discovered asteroids larger than 30 meters in diameter are detected only after their point of closest approach to Earth, indicating a systemic blind spot in current all-sky survey capabilities . This detection pattern means planetary defense efforts often operate reactively, announcing objects as having "just missed" Earth. While over 90% of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) larger than one kilometer are consistently tracked, smaller, 30-meter class objects, capable of localized destruction, frequently pass by undetected until after their closest approach .

Observational challenges primarily cause detection latency for these asteroids. This delay is largely due to observational geometry, where objects approaching from the sunward direction are obscured by solar glare, and their intrinsic faintness, as smaller or darker asteroids only become detectable when extremely close to Earth . High apparent velocities also make these fast-moving objects difficult for ground-based survey telescopes to detect. Aten-class asteroids, with orbits primarily inside Earth's, are particularly susceptible to this sunward blind spot, making them a significant percentage of post-flyby discoveries .

Post-closest approach detections necessitate re-evaluating risk models and deploying new strategies. The significant rate of post-closest approach detections for 30-meter class asteroids fundamentally alters risk models for events like major meteor strikes, requiring a re-evaluation of 'zero warning' scenarios, similar to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event . To address these blind spots, strategic recommendations include deploying space-based telescopes at points like the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange point, enhancing ground-based survey capabilities such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, and investing in advanced artificial intelligence for autonomous real-time threat detection and orbit determination .

The CTBTO infrasound network effectively monitors atmospheric airbursts globally. The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) International Monitoring System (IMS) utilizes a global infrasound network comprising 60 stations. This system is designed to detect low-frequency sound waves from explosions and has demonstrated its capability to detect atmospheric events far exceeding 50 kilotons (kT). Network models predict over 95 percent global detection coverage for atmospheric events with yields equal to or greater than 0.9 kilotons (kt). For instance, the Chelyabinsk meteor in 2013, with an estimated yield of 400-500 kT, was detected by 20 IMS infrasound stations globally, including one over 15,000 km away in Antarctica. However, the provided research output does not specify the total number of unpredicted atmospheric airburst events with an energy yield greater than 50 kilotons that have occurred in the last 20 years.

Atmospheric airbursts, even without ground impact, satisfy "hit Earth" criteria. An atmospheric airburst, such as the Chelyabinsk event, would almost certainly meet prediction market criteria for a "major meteor strike" that "hit Earth." The Earth's atmosphere is an integral part of the planet, and a meteoroid depositing its kinetic energy as a thermal and acoustic blast wave within it constitutes a physical interaction, or a "hit." Scientific precedent, particularly the 1908 Tunguska event—an airburst of 10-15 megatons that flattened over 2,000 square kilometers of forest—universally refers to such phenomena as meteor impacts or strikes, despite the absence of an impact crater. The energy release from a major airburst, demonstrated by Chelyabinsk's shockwave damaging over 7,000 buildings, is a clear physical impact on the Earth's surface and its inhabitants. To remove future ambiguity in prediction markets, explicit criteria should define "hit Earth" to include energy deposition within the atmosphere, rather than solely requiring a ground impact or crater formation. This approach aligns with scientific understanding and the capabilities of monitoring systems like the CTBTO.

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's LSST will fully begin operations in late 2026. This officially projected date marks the start of the 10-year Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), which is expected to be a pivotal moment for planetary defense. The survey is projected to identify 60-90% of all Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) larger than 140 meters within its mission. This will fundamentally transform the near-Earth object catalog by converting unknown potential impactors into known, tracked objects with well-defined, non-threatening orbits.

LSST's advanced instrumentation enables unprecedented asteroid detection capabilities. Its core components include an 8.4-meter primary mirror, a 9.6 square-degree field of view, and a 3.2-gigapixel camera capable of detecting objects as faint as a visual magnitude of 24.5 in a single 30-second exposure . This high sensitivity allows the observatory to detect 140-meter Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) even when they are as far away as the Main Asteroid Belt, providing significantly longer warning times . Early successes, such as the discovery of approximately 1900 new asteroids during a 'First Look' observation run in June 2025, underscore the observatory's readiness and transformative potential.

LSST operations will significantly reduce perceived risk in asteroid impact prediction markets. For prediction markets concerning a major meteor strike before 2030, LSST's activation will lead to a sharp decline in perceived risk [3.2]. While an initial influx of new object alerts might cause short-term volatility due to preliminary orbital uncertainties, the dominant trend will be a systematic reduction in the statistical risk from undiscovered objects [3.2]. By comprehensively cataloging the PHA population, LSST will largely erode the statistical basis for a high probability of an unknown impact within the given timeframe, although long-period comets represent a residual risk less affected by this systematic cataloging [3.4].

The prediction market on a major meteor strike before 2030 is highly sensitive to bullish catalysts. These include the discovery of a new, large, potentially hazardous asteroid (estimated 30-50 meters diameter or more) with an initial trajectory indicating a non-zero probability of Earth impact before January 1, 2030. Recalculation of a known asteroid's orbit leading to a significantly increased probability (>= 10 kt TNT equivalent) would also push 'YES' higher. Other factors are a failed asteroid deflection test or scientific assessment revealing inadequate defense capabilities, or an unpredicted major meteoroid airburst event similar to or larger than the Chelyabinsk event (440 kilotons) in 2013. Conversely, bearish catalysts could push the 'NO' outcome higher. These involve the successful completion of comprehensive sky surveys, such as NASA's NEO Surveyor (launching 2027), without identifying high-probability impactors for Earth before 2030. Successful planetary defense demonstrations and mission analyses, like data from ESA's Hera mission (arriving 2026) studying the DART impact, would reinforce confidence in deflection capabilities. Additionally, refined orbital calculations for potentially hazardous asteroids that reduce their impact probability, as seen with asteroid 2024 YR4, would support a 'NO' outcome. Several key dates and events could influence market sentiment before settlement. Annually, June 30 marks International Asteroid Day, raising public awareness. ESA's Hera Mission arrival at Dimorphos in 2026 and NASA's NEO Surveyor launch in 2027 will provide critical data on asteroid deflection and threat detection. The highly anticipated close approach of asteroid 99942 Apophis on April 13, 2029, will pass safely within 32,000 kilometers of Earth. While posing no threat, this 'once-in-a-millennium event' coinciding with the International Year of Asteroid Awareness and Planetary Defence (2029) could generate significant public discourse and heightened awareness, potentially causing market fluctuations based on public sentiment.