Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Antares Nuclear to achieve criticality before August 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Technical errors prevented comprehensive research on nuclear criticality achievement.
  • No specific catalysts for nuclear criticality achievement have been identified.
  • Recent trading activity showed several significant upward movements.
  • Octagon model and market assessment currently display perfect alignment.
  • Market is rapidly approaching its August 2026 closing deadline.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Valar Atomics 70.0% 69.5% Research error: Internal Server Error
Atomic Alchemy 40.0% 36.5% Research error: Internal Server Error
Aalo Atomics 77.0% 73.0% Research error: Internal Server Error
Antares Nuclear 59.0% 95.5% Research error: Internal Server Error
Oklo 22.0% 6.5% Research error: Internal Server Error

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This market has demonstrated a predominantly sideways trading pattern, contained within a range of 47.0% to 70.0%. The price, representing the probability of at least one nuclear company achieving criticality by the deadline, started at 64.0% and currently stands at 69.0%. The most notable price action was a significant and abrupt drop of 23 percentage points on February 8, 2026, which saw the probability fall from a high of 70.0% to a low of 47.0%. Since that event, the price has staged a strong recovery, erasing nearly the entire loss and returning to the upper end of its historical range.
The cause of the sharp February 8th price collapse is not apparent, as no corresponding context or news was provided. The 47.0% level established during that drop has since acted as a firm support base, while the 70.0% level has served as clear resistance. Total volume of 7,947 contracts suggests moderate overall market activity, although low volume in sample data points may indicate inconsistent liquidity. The recovery to the current 69.0% price reflects a strong return of optimistic sentiment, with the market assigning a high probability to a "YES" resolution. The price is now re-testing its previous peak, indicating that conviction among buyers has returned.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Antares Nuclear

📈 February 22, 2026: 45.0pp spike

Price increased from 52.0% to 97.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

📉 February 10, 2026: 31.0pp drop

Price decreased from 77.0% to 46.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

Outcome: Aalo Atomics

📈 February 21, 2026: 11.0pp spike

Price increased from 85.0% to 96.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

Outcome: Oklo

📈 February 16, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 19.0% to 27.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

Outcome: Valar Atomics

📉 February 08, 2026: 23.0pp drop

Price decreased from 70.0% to 47.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

4. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if any nuclear power company achieves criticality before August 1, 2026. Conversely, it resolves NO if no company achieves criticality by that date. No special settlement conditions are explicitly mentioned in the provided content.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Implied probability
Aalo Atomics $0.77 $0.27 77%
Valar Atomics $0.70 $0.32 70%
Radiant Industries $0.61 $0.40 61%
Antares Nuclear $0.59 $0.42 59%
Atomic Alchemy $0.40 $0.63 40%
Terrestrial Energy $0.27 $0.77 27%
Natura Resources $0.25 $0.76 25%
Oklo $0.22 $0.81 22%
Last Energy $0.14 $0.92 14%
Deep Fission $0.11 $0.91 11%

Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

5. Why Was Researching This Question Unsuccessful?

Research OutcomeFailed
Error TypeInternal Server Error
Data AvailabilityNone
Research efforts encountered a technical error, preventing data retrieval. The primary research attempt to identify the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) Combined License (COL) or Construction Permit (CP) bottleneck stage for leading US contenders (TerraPower, X-energy, Kairos Power) and historical review times for first-of-a-kind reactor designs was unsuccessful due to an internal server error. This technical impediment completely prevented the retrieval of any relevant information or data points.
No specific details or factual content were gathered. As a direct result of this server error, the report is unable to provide substantive answers, key data points, or detailed paragraphs concerning the original research inquiry. No specific details, metrics, or factual content related to bottleneck stages or historical review times for first-of-a-kind reactor designs could be obtained.
Additional attempts are required to gather comprehensive research findings. Overcoming this technical issue and obtaining the necessary information for a complete analysis and response will necessitate further attempts to access and process the research question.

6. How Does an Internal Server Error Affect Research Outcomes?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNone
Key Insights ProvidedNot Applicable
An internal server error prevented the retrieval of research findings. The research process for determining the confirmed production and delivery schedule for Centrus Energy's High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) fuel encountered an internal server error. This technical issue prevented the successful retrieval of any data or findings, indicating a problem within the system attempting to conduct the research rather than a lack of information on the topic itself.
Consequently, the research question cannot be answered at this time. As a direct consequence of the complete failure to access and process information due to the server error, no specific insights, metrics, or detailed summaries could be generated. Therefore, it is impossible to provide factual data points, analytical paragraphs, or definitively answer the initial research question regarding the HALEU schedule required by TerraPower Natrium and X-energy Xe-100 reactors, including its potential slack to accommodate a 3-to-6 month delay without impacting a Q2 2026 fuel loading date. Any subsequent research efforts would first necessitate the resolution of the underlying internal server issue to ensure data can be properly accessed and presented.

7. Why Was Research Data Not Found Due To An Error?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNone
Citations Found0
Specific findings for this research query were unobtainable. The research sought to determine the projected percentage of non-nuclear site preparation and infrastructure work (e.g., excavation, concrete foundations, turbine building) anticipated to be complete by December 31, 2025, for TerraPower's site in Kemmerer, Wyoming, and X-energy's site near Richland, Washington, based on public filings and county-level construction permits. However, an internal server error occurred during the research process, preventing the retrieval of any specific data or detailed information.
No data analysis or detailed information is available. Consequently, it is not possible to provide an analysis of key trends, data points, or contextual details regarding the construction progress for these projects. Further attempts would be necessary to resolve the technical issue and obtain the required information for this question.

8. Why Are No Research Findings Currently Available?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNone
Reason for FailureSystem-wide error
The requested research could not be completed due to a technical system failure. An internal server error prevented the system from accessing or processing any information pertinent to the query.
No specific findings or data could be generated at this time. Consequently, no specific findings, data points, or analytical summaries could be produced. This issue indicates a technical problem within the research system rather than a lack of information on the topic itself, and it is advised to attempt the research again later.

9. What Information Could Not Be Retrieved Due to Error?

Research OutcomeFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNone
CauseServer-side issue
An internal server error prevented the retrieval of requested research findings. A technical malfunction within the research system encountered an internal server error, which inhibited its ability to access or process the necessary information required to answer the specified research question.
No specific project milestones or stock data could be extracted. Consequently, no detailed data points, key metrics, or comprehensive summary paragraphs could be generated regarding the next three scheduled public-facing project milestones for the top two candidates. Similarly, no data was retrieved concerning the magnitude and direction of the stock price change for NuScale Power (SMR) within the five trading days following its last major NRC milestone announcement.
Findings remain unavailable until the server issue is resolved. The unavailability of these findings is directly attributed to the encountered internal server error. Research will be re-attempted once the underlying technical issue is resolved.

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Catalyst analysis not available.

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: August 08, 2026
  • Closes: August 01, 2026

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Catalyst analysis not available.

13. Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.