Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Technical errors prevented comprehensive research on nuclear criticality achievement.
- No specific catalysts for nuclear criticality achievement have been identified.
- Recent trading activity showed several significant upward movements.
- Octagon model and market assessment currently display perfect alignment.
- Market is rapidly approaching its August 2026 closing deadline.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valar Atomics | 70.0% | 69.5% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| Atomic Alchemy | 40.0% | 36.5% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| Aalo Atomics | 77.0% | 73.0% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| Antares Nuclear | 59.0% | 95.5% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| Oklo | 22.0% | 6.5% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Antares Nuclear
📈 February 22, 2026: 45.0pp spike
Price increased from 52.0% to 97.0%
📉 February 10, 2026: 31.0pp drop
Price decreased from 77.0% to 46.0%
Outcome: Aalo Atomics
📈 February 21, 2026: 11.0pp spike
Price increased from 85.0% to 96.0%
Outcome: Oklo
📈 February 16, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 19.0% to 27.0%
Outcome: Valar Atomics
📉 February 08, 2026: 23.0pp drop
Price decreased from 70.0% to 47.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if any nuclear power company achieves criticality before August 1, 2026. Conversely, it resolves NO if no company achieves criticality by that date. No special settlement conditions are explicitly mentioned in the provided content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aalo Atomics | $0.77 | $0.27 | 77% |
| Valar Atomics | $0.70 | $0.32 | 70% |
| Radiant Industries | $0.61 | $0.40 | 61% |
| Antares Nuclear | $0.59 | $0.42 | 59% |
| Atomic Alchemy | $0.40 | $0.63 | 40% |
| Terrestrial Energy | $0.27 | $0.77 | 27% |
| Natura Resources | $0.25 | $0.76 | 25% |
| Oklo | $0.22 | $0.81 | 22% |
| Last Energy | $0.14 | $0.92 | 14% |
| Deep Fission | $0.11 | $0.91 | 11% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Why Was Researching This Question Unsuccessful?
| Research Outcome | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
| Data Availability | None |
6. How Does an Internal Server Error Affect Research Outcomes?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Key Insights Provided | Not Applicable |
7. Why Was Research Data Not Found Due To An Error?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Citations Found | 0 |
8. Why Are No Research Findings Currently Available?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Reason for Failure | System-wide error |
9. What Information Could Not Be Retrieved Due to Error?
| Research Outcome | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Cause | Server-side issue |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: August 08, 2026
- Closes: August 01, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis not available.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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