Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing for Valar Atomics achieving criticality before August 2026, assigning it a 93.8% probability compared to the market's 67.0%, making it the most likely outcome.
1. Executive Verdict
- Oklo progresses in NRC pre-application for its Aurora reactor.
- Leading companies face significant hurdles for August 2026 criticality.
- DOE Reactor Pilot Program targets three advanced reactors by July 2026.
- DOE's NEPA exclusion faces strong environmental legal challenges.
- Kairos Power Hermes first non-light-water reactor approved for construction.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valar Atomics | 69% | 93.8% | Valar has secured regulatory approval and is nearing fuel loading for its test reactor. |
| Atomic Alchemy | 36% | 35.5% | Atomic Alchemy faces technical challenges and supply chain delays for its prototype design. |
| Aalo Atomics | 77% | 92.9% | Aalo Atomics has strong government backing and its demonstration plant is ahead of schedule. |
| Oklo | 20% | 21.5% | Oklo's licensing process has encountered unexpected delays with the NRC. |
| Radiant Industries | 46% | 43.5% | Radiant Industries is progressing its microreactor design but faces material procurement issues. |
Current Context
New nuclear companies target ambitious criticality dates before August 2026, particularly in the United States, driven by federal initiatives and regulatory changes. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has set an aggressive goal for at least three advanced nuclear reactors to achieve criticality outside national laboratories by July 4, 2026, under its Nuclear Reactor Pilot Program. This program, which selected 11 projects in August 2025, with three already breaking ground, includes companies such as Aalo Atomics, Antares Nuclear, Atomic Alchemy, Deep Fission, Last Energy, Oklo, Natura Resources, Radiant Industries, Terrestrial Energy, and Valar Atomics. To accelerate these projects, the Trump administration is working to fast-track approvals by bypassing environmental assessments, with the DOE announcing a new categorical exclusion (CATEX) under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) on February 4, 2026, designed to streamline authorization and deployment processes. Simultaneously, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is undergoing a significant reorganization to streamline decision-making and align with national goals for efficient licensing. Oklo, a developer of the Aurora Powerhouse, signed a contract with Siemens Energy on February 3, 2026, to mitigate supply chain challenges for its planned deployment at Idaho National Laboratory, where Radiant Industries is also reportedly on track to test its Kaleidos reactor experiment in 2026.
Experts widely debate the feasibility of achieving these ambitious criticality deadlines, highlighting both challenges and significant industry momentum. Katy Huff, former Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Energy at DOE, considers the July 4, 2026, goal "extremely aggressive," anticipating "real new advanced reactor electrons on the grid" no sooner than 2032. Conversely, Jordan Bramble, CEO of Antares Nuclear, views the DOE pathway as the optimal method for building essential prototype reactors. While acknowledging industry skepticism regarding the timeline, Matt Loszak, CEO of Aalo Atomics, believes his company can achieve it with DOE support. The nuclear power industry is experiencing significant momentum in 2026, fueled by federal support and surging electricity demand from data centers. Over $1.3 billion was raised by nuclear fission companies in the first half of 2025, and firms like Oklo are securing pre-payments for power from major tech companies such as Meta. However, Edwin Lyman, Director of nuclear power safety at the Union of Concerned Scientists, expresses concern that the lack of real-world experience with new reactor designs warrants more rigorous safety and environmental reviews, especially in light of relaxed regulatory standards.
Ongoing discussions address critical questions regarding timelines and market integration for advanced nuclear technologies. There is significant debate about whether achieving criticality for multiple reactors by July 2026 is truly realistic, given the complex and lengthy nature of nuclear reactor development and licensing. A key concern revolves around balancing regulatory streamlining and accelerated deployment with maintaining stringent safety and environmental standards for novel advanced reactor designs. Other common concerns include high upfront capital costs, historical cost overruns, and the need for innovative financing models such as public-private partnerships, regulated asset base models, and government loan guarantees. Ensuring a robust domestic supply chain for nuclear fuel, including High-Assay, Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU), is crucial to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers. While there is growing interest from data center operators in securing nuclear power, questions persist about the long-term commercial viability and scalability of some advanced reactor designs, especially microreactors, as many power purchase agreements for next-generation reactors are for the mid-2030s. The U.S. nuclear industry also faces competition from countries like China and Russia, which have extensive new reactor construction programs and state-backed financing deals. The 30-day public comment period for the DOE's new NEPA categorical exclusion concludes on March 4, 2026, and the July 4, 2026, deadline for at least three advanced reactors under the DOE's Reactor Pilot Program to achieve criticality remains a critical impending milestone.
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
The prediction market for "Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?" has demonstrated a stable, sideways trading pattern with a slight bullish tilt. The price opened at a 64% probability and has since been confined to a narrow range between $0.59 and $0.70. Currently trading at $0.69, the market is testing the top of this established range. The overall price action suggests a consistent belief in a high probability of the event occurring, with minor fluctuations reflecting consolidations rather than significant shifts in outlook. The primary movement has been a gradual climb from the low- to mid-60s into the high-60s, indicating a steady strengthening of positive sentiment over the market's lifetime.
This firming of the price from its opening level toward the $0.70 resistance can be directly attributed to the positive developments outlined in the provided context. The market likely priced in the initial announcement of the U.S. Department of Energy's aggressive Nuclear Reactor Pilot Program from the start. The subsequent climb reflects the market processing tangible progress, such as the selection of 11 specific projects in August 2025 and the news that three have already broken ground. Furthermore, reports of the Trump administration working to fast-track approvals and bypass environmental assessments would be interpreted by traders as a significant de-risking of the timeline, directly increasing the perceived likelihood of at least one company meeting the August 2026 deadline and justifying the price increase.
The total volume of 6,399 contracts traded within this tight range indicates healthy market participation and conviction around the current price level. The chart has established a clear support floor near the $0.59-$0.61 area and a firm resistance ceiling at $0.70. The current price of $0.69 suggests that market sentiment is strongly optimistic, consistently pricing the odds of success at well over 60%. The market is effectively signaling that while the goal is ambitious, the combination of federal backing, regulatory acceleration, and visible project progress makes a successful outcome more likely than not.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Oklo
📈 January 21, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 19.0% to 28.0%
What happened: The 9.0 percentage point spike in Oklo's prediction market price on January 21, 2026, was primarily driven by a combination of traditional news and influential political commentary. On that day, Bank of America upgraded Oklo's stock to a "Buy" rating, citing the recent partnership with Meta Platforms to develop a 1.2 GW nuclear energy campus. Concurrently, President Donald Trump publicly endorsed nuclear energy at the World Economic Forum in Davos, which spurred a broader rally across nuclear and uranium stocks, including Oklo. While general social media sentiment around Oklo and nuclear energy was positive following the earlier Meta deal, no specific viral posts from key figures were identified as the primary trigger for this particular spike; rather, social media activity likely acted as a contributing accelerant to the news-driven momentum.
📈 January 11, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 21.0% to 31.0%
What happened: The primary driver of Oklo's 10.0 percentage point price spike on January 11, 2026, in the prediction market was the announcement of a significant energy supply agreement with Meta Platforms. On January 9, 2026, Oklo announced a deal to develop a 1.2-gigawatt nuclear energy campus in Ohio to power Meta's AI data centers, with Meta providing upfront funding. This major traditional news event, widely reported by financial news outlets, directly preceded the prediction market movement and would have significantly increased confidence in Oklo's commercial viability and potential to achieve criticality within the prediction market's timeframe. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver, although general discussions around the news would have contributed to market sentiment as a contributing accelerant.
Outcome: Aalo Atomics
📉 January 13, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 85.0% to 74.0%
What happened: The 11.0 percentage point drop for Aalo Atomics in the "Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?" prediction market on January 13, 2026, does not appear to be directly driven by a specific negative social media post or a singular breaking news announcement regarding Aalo Atomics on or immediately before that date. Available information from late 2025 and late January 2026 consistently portrays Aalo Atomics as progressing positively toward its criticality goal, including securing fuel and completing design reviews. Instead, the price movement likely stemmed from a broader market re-evaluation of the inherent regulatory complexities and potential timeline challenges facing advanced nuclear reactor companies aiming for criticality. While not specific to Aalo Atomics, discussions around January 2026 highlighted general concerns regarding the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) approval processes, funding challenges for other projects, and the overall difficulty of achieving criticality for new reactor designs, which may have led to increased perceived risk across the sector. These generalized concerns about the advanced nuclear industry's ability to meet aggressive deadlines could have prompted a downward adjustment in prediction market prices, coinciding with the reported date of the drop. Social media activity regarding Aalo Atomics around this period was mostly positive or promotional, emphasizing milestones and partnerships, indicating it was mostly noise or irrelevant to this specific price drop. Therefore, social media was (d) irrelevant.
📈 January 12, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 76.0% to 85.0%
What happened: The 9.0 percentage point spike in Aalo Atomics' prediction market price on January 12, 2026, was primarily driven by the imminent or actual receipt of its first fuel delivery. Aalo Atomics was slated to receive its initial fuel from Urenco no later than the first quarter of 2026, a critical step paving the way for the criticality of its Aalo-X advanced reactor. This development, which falls within the early part of the stated delivery window, significantly increased confidence in the company's goal to achieve criticality by July 4, 2026. Social media activity, such as a YouTube vlog from Aalo's CTO on January 15, 2026, and an official update on a "Final Design Review Completed" on January 22, 2026, occurred after the price movement, indicating they were not the primary drivers but rather subsequent acknowledgments of ongoing progress. Therefore, traditional news and announcements regarding key operational milestones, particularly the timely fuel acquisition, were the primary driver.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if a nuclear power company achieves criticality by July 31, 2026. It resolves NO if no such event occurs by this deadline. The specific nuclear power companies in scope are not detailed in this market description.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aalo Atomics | $0.77 | $0.28 | 77% |
| Valar Atomics | $0.69 | $0.35 | 69% |
| Radiant Industries | $0.46 | $0.59 | 46% |
| Antares Nuclear | $0.43 | $0.59 | 43% |
| Atomic Alchemy | $0.36 | $0.65 | 36% |
| Natura Resources | $0.26 | $0.79 | 26% |
| Oklo | $0.20 | $0.81 | 20% |
| Terrestrial Energy | $0.17 | $0.88 | 17% |
| Deep Fission | $0.14 | $0.90 | 14% |
| Last Energy | $0.14 | $0.91 | 14% |
Market Discussion
Discussions surrounding nuclear power companies achieving criticality before August 2026 primarily revolve around the ambitious goals set by the U.S . Department of Energy (DOE) and the progress of companies participating in its Reactor Pilot Program . Main viewpoints express optimism due to streamlined regulatory pathways and surging demand for reliable energy from sectors like AI and data centers . However, debates likely consider the aggressive timeline and potential challenges in rapidly deploying novel nuclear technologies, reflected in varying probabilities on prediction markets for companies such as Aalo Atomics, Valar Atomics, Radiant Industries, and Antares Nuclear .
5. What is the US NRC licensing status for advanced reactors?
| Oklo Aurora NRC Docket Status | Pre-application phase (99902095) |
|---|---|
| Oklo Projected Commercial Operation Target | Late-2027 to early-2028 |
| Typical NRC COLA Review Duration | Approximately 36 months post-docketing |
Oklo progresses in NRC pre-application for its Aurora fast reactor. Oklo Inc. is actively engaged in the pre-application phase with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for its Aurora fast reactor, under docket number 99902095. As of February 2026, a formal Combined License Application (COLA), which would encompass the Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR), has not yet been submitted or accepted for official docketing. Despite this, Oklo successfully completed a pre-application readiness assessment in July 2025, where the NRC identified no major gaps for future application acceptance. Furthermore, Oklo's Principal Design Criteria topical report was accepted for an accelerated review in September 2025.
Other candidates lack formal NRC licensing engagement or filings. In contrast to Oklo's progress, Radiant Industries and Last Energy have not yet established public pre-application or formal application dockets with the NRC for commercial power reactors. Consequently, neither company has submitted mandatory filings, such as Safety Analysis Reports, for NRC review. The NRC estimates that a technical review for a first-of-a-kind advanced reactor COLA typically takes approximately 36 months after the application is formally accepted for docketing. Given Oklo's current pre-application status and the absence of any formal engagement from Radiant Industries and Last Energy, achieving criticality for an NRC-licensed commercial facility for any of these companies before August 2026 is not feasible.
Oklo's commercial operation target conflicts with typical NRC timelines. Oklo's corporate target for commercial operation is late 2027 to early 2028, a timeframe that is inconsistent with typical NRC review timelines for a commercial license. The estimated 36-month NRC technical review period for a COLA commences only after the application is formally docketed, which has not yet occurred for Oklo. It is important to note that a separate Department of Energy (DOE) pilot project involving Oklo aims for mid-2026 criticality; however, this project would likely operate under a different regulatory framework, distinct from an NRC commercial license.
6. Can Advanced Nuclear Reactors Achieve Criticality by August 2026?
| BWRX-300 RPV Delivery | 2027-2028 (aligned with 2029 operation) |
|---|---|
| Purified HALEU Oxide Shipment | Over 100 kilograms (December 2025) |
| Naval Fuel Contract Completion | Summer 2026 ($174M contract) |
No top contender confirms all critical components for August 2026 criticality. Based on current public contracts and schedules, no advanced nuclear sector contender has a documented path to receive all critical long-lead components necessary to achieve initial criticality by the August 2026 deadline. For GE Hitachi's BWRX-300, which uses Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) rather than High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU), the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) for its Darlington project is projected for delivery in 2027-2028, aligning with a 2029 operational target. This timeline is well past an August 2026 criticality, with major construction slated to commence in late 2025. Similarly, Oklo Inc.'s Aurora microreactor, which requires HALEU, signed a contract with Siemens Energy in November 2025 to design and deliver its Power Conversion System (PCS). Such a late-stage contract for a complex system makes full delivery, installation, and commissioning by August 2026 highly improbable.
HALEU supply chain shows progress but faces commercialization hurdles. While progress is being made in the domestic HALEU supply chain, the conversion to a full, licensed reactor core for commercial use introduces significant timeline uncertainty. BWXT shipped over 100 kilograms of purified HALEU oxide in December 2025 under a Department of Energy (DOE) program, demonstrating critical technical capability, and is also processing over two metric tons of HALEU feedstock. However, the transition from oxide feedstock to a fully fabricated, licensed, and delivered reactor core for a commercial customer has no public confirmation of completion for Oklo's initial core within the required timeline. Furthermore, BWXT's substantial $174 million naval nuclear reactor fuel contract, targeted for completion by summer 2026, represents a significant demand on its specialized fabrication resources, potentially competing with commercial HALEU core production.
7. Which Nuclear Pilot Program Participants Will Achieve 2026 Criticality?
| Aalo Atomics Construction | Most advanced verifiable construction progress, targeting 2026 criticality (February 2026) |
|---|---|
| Oklo Inc. Construction | Strong second with substantial site activity, targeting 2027-2028 operation (February 2026) |
| Other 9 Participants | Minimal to no on-site construction beyond site preparation (February 2026) |
A multi-faceted analysis of the DOE Reactor Pilot Program reveals significant construction disparities. As of February 2026, a comparative analysis of public construction permits, high-resolution satellite imagery, and hiring data for 'commissioning engineer' or 'reactor operator' roles at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) shows a clear leader among the eleven selected participants. Aalo Atomics Inc. stands out as the definitive leader, demonstrating the most advanced and verifiable on-site construction for its Aalo-X reactor, aligning with an aggressive 2026 criticality target. Oklo Inc. follows as a strong second, showing confirmed groundbreaking and substantial site activity for its Aurora powerhouse.
Aalo Atomics and Oklo Inc. show tangible construction progress. Aalo Atomics’ lead is substantiated by its groundbreaking in August 2025, advanced foundational work, extensive trenching visible via satellite imagery, and a significant surge in hiring for Commissioning Engineers and Reactor Operators specifically for the Aalo-X project. Oklo Inc., which broke ground in September 2025, also demonstrates substantial trenching and initial foundation work, complemented by strategic hiring for commissioning and operations leadership. Additionally, Oklo has exhibited strong regulatory proficiency, notably receiving the DOE Nuclear Safety Design Agreement (NSDA) for its Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility in a remarkably short period.
Other participants show minimal on-site construction beyond site preparation. In stark contrast to Aalo Atomics and Oklo Inc., the remaining nine participants in the Reactor Pilot Program show minimal to no evidence of on-site construction. Their designated plots typically appear in a "shovel-ready" or early preparation state. These companies are presumed to be in earlier regulatory and pre-construction phases, focusing on design and licensing roles rather than hands-on commissioning or operations. This lack of tangible on-site progress makes it logistically impossible for them to achieve criticality by the August 2026 prediction market resolution date.
8. What Environmental Litigation Risks Threaten DOE Reactor Program Goals?
| Litigation Likelihood | High |
|---|---|
| Injunction Success Probability | Moderate to High (Environmental groups have a historical success rate of approximately 50%) |
| Injunction Ruling Timeline | 2-4 months |
DOE's new NEPA exclusion faces strong environmental legal challenges. The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Advanced Reactor Program faces significant environmental litigation risk due to its use of a new National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) categorical exclusion to fast-track projects. Environmental organizations are highly likely to challenge this exclusion under the Administrative Procedure Act (APA), arguing it is "arbitrary and capricious." This legal strategy contends that novel advanced reactor technologies lack the "past experience" required to justify such a streamlined review. Challenges will focus on procedural failures, such as improper use of the exclusion and failure to consider "extraordinary circumstances," as well as substantive claims regarding a lack of a "hard look" at environmental consequences.
Preliminary injunctions threaten to halt pre-construction activities swiftly. There is a moderate to high likelihood that environmental groups could secure a preliminary injunction to halt pre-construction activities. To obtain an injunction, plaintiffs must demonstrate a substantial likelihood of success on the merits, a likelihood of irreparable harm, that the balance of hardships tips in their favor, and that an injunction serves the public interest. The argument for irreparable harm is particularly strong, as pre-construction activities can cause irreversible environmental damage before a full review. A court ruling on such an injunction could occur within 2-4 months, a timeframe well within what is needed to disrupt the Q4 2026 construction target and the August 2026 criticality goal. The UK government's parallel efforts to deploy advanced nuclear technologies also underscore global urgency, which can sometimes lead to agencies taking procedural shortcuts susceptible to legal challenge.
Litigation creates program-wide uncertainty, impacting project targets. A preliminary injunction against any front-runner company, such as Aalo Atomics, Oklo Inc., or Radiant Industries Inc., would effectively resolve their prediction market outcome to 'No' for achieving criticality by August 2026. This legal risk creates a systemic "chilling effect" across the entire DOE program, potentially increasing investor uncertainty and causing the DOE to slow approvals for other projects. The aggressive July 4, 2026, criticality target leaves no room for such litigation-induced delays, making the likelihood of a legal challenge a central factor for prediction market participants.
9. Will Advanced Nuclear Reactors Achieve Criticality by August 2026?
| NuScale Criticality Target | ~2030 (Romania Project) |
|---|---|
| TerraPower Criticality Target | End of 2030 (Wyoming Project) |
| HolosGen Criticality Target | Not Publicly Specified (N/A) |
Achieving initial criticality by August 2026 is highly improbable for leading companies. Public data, regulatory precedents, and corporate timelines indicate a virtually zero probability for NuScale Power, TerraPower, or HolosGen to meet this aggressive deadline. The NRC-mandated Inspection, Test, Analysis, and Acceptance Criteria (ITAAC) process is a comprehensive, multi-year verification regime. This includes extensive pre-operational and hot functional testing, which are multi-month endeavors requiring NRC verification and sign-off for hundreds of individual criteria. These crucial testing phases alone can last from two to six months, following multi-year construction.
Company timelines extend well beyond 2026 for achieving reactor criticality. NuScale Power's flagship projects, such as the one in Romania, are targeting operational readiness around 2030, with the final investment decision postponed to late 2026 or early 2027. TerraPower began non-nuclear site work for its Natrium project in June 2024, with a stated goal of achieving criticality by the end of 2030, despite pursuing an accelerated NRC review. HolosGen remains in an early stage of development, focused on modeling and non-nuclear testing, and has not filed for necessary construction permits, making a 2026 criticality technologically and regulatorily infeasible. The August 2026 deadline is fundamentally misaligned with known project schedules, showing a gap of several years between this timeframe and the companies' public targets.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts for Market Probability
The market's outcome will heavily depend on the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Reactor Pilot Program, which targets criticality for at least three advanced reactors, including Oklo's Aurora and Kairos Power's Hermes, by July 4, 2026. Oklo has shown regulatory progress, while Kairos Power's Hermes is the first non-light-water reactor in over 50 years approved for construction in the U.S. Furthermore, X-energy's TRISO-X fuel fabrication facility is expected to complete construction by mid-2026 with regulatory approval by May 2026, a vital milestone for advanced reactor deployment. A supportive regulatory and funding environment could further accelerate these projects, alongside any unexpected early criticality from international projects. Conversely, delays in the DOE Reactor Pilot Program are a significant bearish catalyst, as the July 4, 2026 target is considered ambitious by experts. Technical challenges, unforeseen construction hurdles, or protracted regulatory reviews, similar to Oklo's past licensing setbacks, could push criticality dates past the August 1, 2026 settlement. Regulatory roadblocks for novel designs, supply chain issues for specialized components or HALEU fuel, and international project slippages (e.g., TerraPower's Natrium reactor targeting 2030, or Hinkley Point C's significant delays) could also shift the market's probability towards a 'NO' outcome.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: August 08, 2026
- Closes: August 01, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The market's outcome will heavily depend on the U.S [^] .
- Trigger: Department of Energy's (DOE) Reactor Pilot Program, which targets criticality for at least three advanced reactors, including Oklo's Aurora and Kairos Power's Hermes, by July 4, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: Oklo has shown regulatory progress, while Kairos Power's Hermes is the first non-light-water reactor in over 50 years approved for construction in the U.S [^] .
- Trigger: Furthermore, X-energy's TRISO-X fuel fabrication facility is expected to complete construction by mid-2026 with regulatory approval by May 2026, a vital milestone for advanced reactor deployment [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.
