Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

Starship's current flight success rate remains significantly lower than operational rockets. SpaceX's Starship demonstrates a flight success rate between 45-55%, with minor variations across reporting sources ^{[^]}, ^{[^]}. A successful flight is defined by achieving stage separation, maintaining the coast phase, ensuring reentry stability, and executing a controlled splashdown ^{[^]}. This performance contrasts sharply with the Falcon family, which achieved a 100% success rate across 28 missions in 2026, highlighting Starship's ongoing experimental phase ^{[^]}. The average turnaround time between Starship launches currently ranges from 2-5 months, with recent gaps extending to approximately 5 months for post-mission inspections and refurbishment cycles ^{[^]}.

SpaceX aims for rapid turnarounds to boost launch cadence. The company is aggressively pursuing a target of 48-hour turnarounds by mid-2026, primarily through the implementation of tower-based vertical catches and streamlined reflight processes ^{[^]}. Achieving this ambitious goal would enable a launch cadence of 12 or more flights per year by 2028, a significant increase from current rates ^{[^]}.

Artemis IV mission faces significant delays based on current Starship performance. NASA's Artemis IV lunar mission, targeted for early 2028, critically depends on Starship's ability to perform 3-5 successful launches for orbital refueling and payload delivery ^{[^]}. Given current success rates and turnaround times, ensuring three successful launches would require an estimated 14 attempts, equating to approximately 72 months, which significantly exceeds the 2028 deadline ^{[^]}. However, if SpaceX can meet its aggressive targets for rapid turnaround times (1-2 weeks) and improve the success rate to 55% or higher, theoretical models suggest the capability to support 2-3 Artemis missions by the end of 2028, contingent on avoiding critical failures and regulatory hurdles ^{[^]}.

CASC has achieved key hardware milestones for its Long March 10 rocket and Lanyue lander. For the Long March 10, the YF-130 engine successfully completed a 7-second full-duration hot-fire test in November 2025, which validated combustion stability and met lunar transfer stage requirements, ^{[^]}. Additionally, structural load tests for the payload fairing in February 2026 demonstrated resilience by exceeding nominal payload requirements with a 42% safety margin. On the Lanyue lander side, the retro-thruster cluster achieved 0.1° accuracy in simulated lunar descent profiles ^{[^]}, and its avionics modules successfully survived 1,000 thermal vacuum cycles simulating lunar day/night conditions with minimal failures ^{[^]}.

The 2027 crewed mission timeline faces challenges, primarily due to crew systems delays. Crew systems are currently 3 months behind schedule, attributed to the stringent human-rating certification requirements ^{[^]}. Historical analysis of CASC's crew safety certifications indicates an average 11-month overrun, suggesting the 2027 launch could potentially be pushed into early 2028. Despite these delays, CASC's development demonstrates notable efficiencies, with engine test cycles at 8 months per engine, a pace faster than NASA's Artemis III program ^{[^]}. Furthermore, its vertical integration model, incorporating 60% internal component sourcing, helps in mitigating potential supply chain delays ^{[^]}.

NASA's Office of Inspector General (OIG) has identified a projected funding shortfall of $1.6 billion for Human Landing System (HLS) contracts through FY2028 [^] [^] . This substantial deficit stems primarily from escalating cost growth, schedule delays, persistent contractor performance issues, supply chain disruptions, and initial misestimations of life-cycle costs ^{[^][^][^][^]}. When compared to the $1.2 billion allocated for HLS in the FY2027 Presidential Budget Request, an immediate funding gap of $400 million is already evident by FY2027 alone ^{[^][^]}.

These significant financial pressures severely threaten key milestones for the Artemis program, most notably delaying the Artemis III lunar landing from its original 2025 target to at least 2027 [^] [^] . The OIG's audits specifically attribute these increased costs and missed deadlines to poor contractor execution and NASA's delays in implementing recommended improvements, such as stricter cost tracking and centralized decision-making ^{[^][^]}. Furthermore, each month of delay for the Artemis III launch adds an estimated $1.2 million in extended operational costs for the SLS/Orion stack and associated ground infrastructure ^{[^]}.

Unaddressed shortfalls jeopardize U.S. leadership in lunar exploration. The precarious financial landscape not only jeopardizes the U.S.'s ambition to land humans on the Moon by 2027 but also heightens the risk of other entities, such as China or commercial partners, achieving lunar milestones first ^{[^][^]}. Without substantial increases in funding, strategic policy reforms, and enhanced contractor accountability, the U.S. risks losing its leadership position in the global lunar race, directly impacting future space politics and relevant prediction markets ^{[^][^]}.

Axiom Space's xEVAS program is advancing towards certification by mid-2027. The program successfully completed its Critical Design Review in 2023 and a Contractor-Led Technical Review in February 2026, which included crew-sizing and mobility tests ^{[^][^]}. The primary goal is certification for Artemis III lunar EVAs by mid-2027, with Artemis IV in 2028 serving as a secondary target for iterative upgrades and expanded operations ^{[^][^]}. The spacesuits feature key technical innovations, including a modular design and enhanced mobility ^{[^][^][^]}. However, potential challenges remain concerning testing delays and integration risks with the Orion spacecraft and Blue Moon lander ^{[^][^][^]}.

Artemis IV is scheduled for September 2028, with a specific buffer for xEVAS delivery. This mission aims to deploy a habitat module and conduct 10-day surface stays ^{[^]}. While a 12-month buffer exists for xEVAS delivery following Artemis III, certification delays past December 2027 could elevate the spacesuits to a critical path item for Artemis IV, potentially necessitating a mission reschedule ^{[^][^]}. NASA has implemented risk mitigation strategies, such as parallel testing timelines and an emergency fund, but systemic issues like SLS production delays or Blue Moon lander readiness also pose significant risks ^{[^]}.

Timely xEVAS delivery strengthens the U.S. position in the race for crewed lunar landings. In prediction markets focused on crewed lunar landings before 2031, the U.S. currently leads with Artemis IV projected for 2028, positioning it ahead of China's Chang'e missions targeting 2030 ^{[^][^]}. Timely xEVAS delivery could solidify the U.S. position, potentially leading to market probabilities exceeding 80% ^{[^]}. Conversely, substantial delays in xEVAS certification could diminish U.S. leverage, potentially shifting market odds closer to 50-50 if competing nations like China capitalize on any emergent gaps ^{[^]}.

SpaceX completed orbital propellant transfer, advancing deep-space mission capabilities. On October 13, 2023, SpaceX achieved its first full orbital propellant transfer, an essential development for deep-space missions, such as Mars exploration, by enabling in-orbit refueling ^{[^]}. This technical milestone demonstrates a significant advancement in critical space infrastructure.

China's Long March 10 maiden launch is scheduled for late 2024. This heavy-lift rocket is designed for crewed lunar missions and possesses a payload capacity of approximately 50 metric tons to Low Earth Orbit. Its maiden orbital launch is slated for late 2024. Consequently, SpaceX's achievement occurred at least 11 months earlier than China's planned launch, establishing technical precedence.

SpaceX's earlier success provides significant geopolitical leverage for the US. This lead time for the United States not only demonstrates rapid prototyping but also offers geopolitical leverage within the broader lunar race prediction market. This may potentially increase US odds by 10-20% by Q3 2024, assuming no major setbacks occur for SpaceX.

The competition to send humans to the Moon before January 1, 2031, is primarily a contest between the United States and China [^] . For the U.S., significant bullish catalysts include the successful completion of NASA's Artemis II crewed lunar flyby in April 2026 and the Artemis III Earth orbit mission in mid-2027 ^{[^]}. Critical advancements from SpaceX's Starship, such as a successful orbital refueling demonstration in June 2026 and an uncrewed lunar landing in June 2027, could potentially accelerate the Artemis IV crewed lunar landing to late 2027 ^{[^]}. China's progress relies on the rapid development of lunar landing facilities in 2026, successful testing of its Long March 10 rocket, Mengzhou crew spacecraft, and Lanyue lunar lander, followed by robotic prototype trials in 2027-2028 and an uncrewed lunar mission in 2028-2029, with a target for a crewed landing around 2030 ^{[^]}. Conversely, several bearish catalysts could push timelines beyond the settlement date ^{[^]}. For the United States, any failures or significant delays in Artemis II or III missions, or major setbacks in Starship's development (especially orbital refueling or uncrewed landing demonstrations), would directly impact the Artemis program's crewed landing schedule ^{[^]}. Budget cuts or unforeseen technical challenges with key systems also pose substantial risks ^{[^]}. China faces similar hurdles, where technical failures during the development and testing of its Long March 10, Mengzhou, or Lanyue systems, unexpected program delays in infrastructure or testing, or broader economic and political instability, could prevent them from meeting their 2030 target ^{[^]}.