Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

The United States and China lead the competitive race to the Moon. Discussions intensely focus on the United States' Artemis program and China's ambitious human lunar exploration plans. NASA's Artemis II mission, which will send a crew around the Moon, has been delayed from its initial target of February 8, 2026, to at least March 2026. This delay stems from a liquid hydrogen fuel leak detected during a critical "wet dress rehearsal" on February 2, 2026. The earliest new launch opportunities for Artemis II are now March 6, 7, 8, 9, and 11, 2026. The four-person crew, including Canadian Space Agency (CSA) astronaut Jeremy Hansen, NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, and Christina Koch, were released from quarantine following the delay and will re-enter it approximately 14 days before the rescheduled launch. Hansen is poised to become the first non-American to venture around the Moon, making Canada the second country to send a human into deep space, a historical significance noted by experts. While Artemis II is set for March 2026, Artemis III, aiming for the first crewed lunar landing since Apollo 17, is officially expected by NASA no earlier than 2028, though mid-2027 has also been cited. China, meanwhile, aims to land humans on the Moon by 2030, with the first launch of its Long March 10 rocket planned for 2027 and the first crewed flight of its Mengzhou crew vehicle in 2027-2028.

Lunar missions involve significant costs, technical challenges, and international partnerships. Key data points of interest include updated schedules for crewed lunar missions, international participation from partner nations like Canada, Europe (ESA), and Japan (JAXA) through contributions to the Orion spacecraft and the planned Lunar Gateway space station, and the mission objectives. Beyond simply landing, the goals of establishing a sustainable human presence at the lunar South Pole, exploring for resources, and preparing for future Mars missions are crucial; Artemis III, for instance, aims to land the first woman and first person of color on the lunar surface. The substantial costs of lunar programs, such as the Artemis program's estimated $49.9 billion by Artemis I, with each launch costing around $4 billion, are a focus of scrutiny. NASA officials consistently prioritize safety, asserting that missions will only launch when all systems are ready. While the US (NASA) is considered the only country with a near-term human landing plan, some experts suggest China could potentially be the first to land humans on the Moon since 1972 if US Artemis program delays persist. The return to the Moon is explained by experts as being driven by "science and... engineering development". India has also stated plans to send an astronaut to the Moon by 2040.

Ongoing debates address lunar mission costs, challenges, and geopolitical impacts. The central question remains whether the United States (through Artemis) or China will be the next nation to successfully land humans on the Moon. There is ongoing debate regarding the immense financial investment required for these missions and whether the benefits justify the costs, especially as more countries and private companies enter lunar exploration. Concerns persist about technical challenges, such as the recent hydrogen leak for Artemis II, raising questions about the safety and feasibility of ambitious timelines. Discussions also revolve around establishing a permanent, sustainable human presence on the Moon and the necessary infrastructure, such as the Lunar Gateway, which Canada contributes to with its Canadarm 3 robotic arm. The new space race is viewed through a lens of both international cooperation, exemplified by Artemis Accords partners, and renewed geopolitical competition, particularly between the US and China.