Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

As of March 26, 2026, SpaceX's orbital propellant transfer demonstrations have not yet occurred. Ship-to-ship orbital propellant transfer efficiency remains undemonstrated, as the planned 2025-2026 test series for Starship orbital refueling, with a 'not earlier than' date of 2026, has not taken place ^{[^]}. While progress continues on in-space refueling technologies, the actual orbital ship-to-ship transfer itself has not yet been performed ^{[^]}.

The uncrewed Artemis III Human Landing System (HLS) demonstration mission demands substantial propellant in Low Earth Orbit. This mission requires approximately 1000 to 1200 metric tons of propellant to be delivered ^{[^]}. Such a substantial amount necessitates multiple tanker flights, with estimates for mission success ranging from 4 to 20 flights, including projections of 10-14 flights and 16 flights for a single mission ^{[^]}. The transfer process will require extremely high efficiency and effective boil-off management to minimize propellant loss ^{[^]}.

China's Long March 10 rocket completed full-stack ground testing at the Wenchang Space Launch Site without significant anomalies. Chinese state media reported successful ground tests, including a static fire test conducted in August 2025, which verified key systems for the lunar rocket program ^{[^]}. Commercial satellite imagery analyses, alongside these reports, indicated no damage to the launch pad or other anomalies during this initial testing phase.

A subsequent flight test further demonstrated the rocket and pad's integrity and capabilities. On February 11, 2026, a successful low-altitude flight test of the Long March 10 was performed ^{[^]}. The new Wenchang launch pad, specifically designed for future lunar missions, successfully handled its first ignition flight without any damage to the flame trench or concrete, thereby confirming its robust design ^{[^]}. Overall web research, encompassing commercial satellite imagery analyses, corroborated the absence of any damage or anomalies at the Wenchang Space Launch Site related to these ground and flight tests. The successful completion of these critical tests, coupled with the reported integrity of the launch pad, indicates a positive progression for China's Long March 10 lunar rocket program ^{[^]}.

Final appropriations for Human Landing System in FY2025 and FY2026 are unavailable. Specific final funding amounts appropriated by the U.S. Congress for NASA's Human Landing System (HLS) line item for fiscal years (FY) 2025 and 2026 are not explicitly stated in the available research. NASA's budget requests for HLS indicate $1,896.1 million for FY2025 ^{[^]} and $1,746.6 million for FY2026 ^{[^]}. For contextual reference, the HLS operational plan level for FY2024 was $1,418.9 million ^{[^]}.

Calculating budget request-to-appropriation differences is currently not possible. Without the specific final appropriated funding amounts for the Human Landing System for FY2025 and FY2026, it is impossible to calculate the requested percentage difference between the budget requests and the final appropriations. While overall Congressional appropriations for broader categories exist, such as approximately $7,666 million for Exploration in FY2025 and $7.783 billion for FY2026 ^{[^]}, these figures do not specify HLS funding. Additionally, the available research lacks detailed historical data on HLS-specific request-to-appropriation ratios for the prior three fiscal years, which precludes any comparative analysis.

Official findings for AxEMU spacesuit's CDR are not yet publicly available. As of March 26, 2026, explicit findings from a NASA Critical Design Review (CDR) for Axiom Space's AxEMU moonwalking spacesuits are not stated in public sources. Axiom Space, the contractor, successfully completed an internal technical review in early 2026, with NASA planning to conduct a subsequent critical design sync review ^{[^]}. In 2025, Axiom delivered over 1,200 CDR products and continues to operate within the critical design phase ^{[^]}, with ongoing testing of the AxEMU system, including initial crew testing and uncrewed thermal vacuum tests ^{[^]}.

OIG reports identify no specific AxEMU life support safety risks. NASA Office of Inspector General (OIG) reports have not identified unresolved safety or schedule risks specifically related to AxEMU life support systems. Recent OIG reports have primarily focused on legacy International Space Station (ISS) suits and other elements of the Artemis program, rather than directly addressing the AxEMU suits.

China's Long March 10 orbital test flight is targeted for late 2026. The inaugural orbital test flight of the Long March 10 rocket, specifically the Long March 10A variant paired with the Mengzhou-1 crew spacecraft, is scheduled for late 2026 ^{[^]}. As of March 26, 2026, this vehicle has not yet achieved orbital launch, although suborbital and low-altitude tests were conducted in February 2026. This mission will mark the debut for both the Long March 10A rocket and the Mengzhou-1 spacecraft ^{[^]}.

SpaceX Starship HLS lunar landing is planned for mid-2027. Conversely, the successful soft landing of an uncrewed SpaceX Starship HLS on the lunar surface is targeted for June 2027, according to internal documents and reports ^{[^]}. This proposed timeline is contingent upon a planned propellant transfer demonstration, which is slated for June 2026 ^{[^]}. Starship development has experienced ongoing delays, affecting its overall schedule, with reports indicating a shift in the crewed lunar landing for NASA's Artemis 3 mission to 2028 ^{[^]}.

China's Long March 10 flight is projected to occur first. Based on current projections, the orbital test flight of China's Long March 10 is expected to occur approximately six months to a year before the uncrewed Starship HLS lunar landing ^{[^]}. The Long March 10's orbital debut is projected for late 2026, preceding Starship HLS's lunar landing target of mid-2027.

Prediction markets currently indicate a strong likelihood that the United States will be the next nation to send humans to the Moon before 2031, with probabilities ranging from 68-70% [^] . China is the next contender, holding 32-37% probability ^{[^]}. The US is targeting its initial crewed lunar landing with Artemis IV in 2028, whereas China has set a goal of 2030 ^{[^]}. No other countries possess viable near-term human lunar programs ^{[^]}. Major catalysts that could shift these market probabilities are centered on the progress of the US Artemis program ^{[^]}. Significant delays in the development and integration of critical components, such as the human landing system or the Space Launch System, could diminish the US's lead ^{[^]}. Conversely, accelerated development or successful preceding missions could further strengthen its predicted success ^{[^]}. The advancement of China's human lunar exploration efforts also stands as a key catalyst ^{[^]}. Faster-than-expected progress in their planned missions, including the development of their super heavy-lift rocket and lunar lander, could increase their probability ^{[^]}. Conversely, any technical setbacks, budgetary constraints, or unexpected operational challenges could reduce their chances of reaching the Moon with humans by 2030 ^{[^]}.