Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Before 2029, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Executive Verdict

  • No complete Millennium Prize Problem solutions published 2022-2023.
  • Mandatory two-year review period follows any Millennium Prize solution publication.
  • The Clay Mathematics Institute lacks protocol for AI-generated prize proofs.
  • The Millennium Technology Prize will not be awarded in 2025.
  • Clay Institute award timelines are non-public, requiring historical projection.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before 2028 12% 11.5% Market higher by 0.5pp
Before 2027 6% 0.1% The assignment of Grade C reflects a moderate positive update, where tangible evidence of AI as a successful mathematical collaborator slightly outweighs concerns about AI-generated noise and the persistent gap between pattern recognition and formal proof, thereby increasing the probability.
Before 2030 29% 0.3% The market's skeptical baseline is largely validated by recent AI failures in formal mathematics, but the immense scale of ongoing research justifies a minimal positive update against the strongest counterargument of a potential non-linear breakthrough.
Before 2029 23% 21.5% Market higher by 1.5pp
Before 2035 57% 0.4% The influx of plausible but nonsensical AI-generated mathematical papers, as observed in late 2025 and early 2026, creates a significant verification bottleneck that outweighs the potential for accelerated discovery, thereby shifting the log-odds negatively against a prize being awarded before 2035.

Current Context

Discussions about the next Millennium Prize encompass two distinct awards: the Clay Mathematics Institute's (CMI) Millennium Prize Problems and the Millennium Technology Prize awarded by Technology Academy Finland (TAF). The CMI's prize recognizes solutions to individual mathematical challenges, each carrying a $1 million reward, and is awarded only when a solution is published and verified, meaning it has no scheduled dates. In contrast, the Millennium Technology Prize is awarded regularly for technological innovations designed to improve the quality of life, with its next prize scheduled for May 2027.
CMI Millennium Prize Problems remain largely unsolved, with AI's role debated. The CMI Millennium Prize Problems do not have specific upcoming award deadlines, as only one of the original seven problems, the Poincaré Conjecture, has been solved to date. The remaining six unsolved problems include the Riemann hypothesis and the P versus NP problem, each carrying a $1 million prize upon verification of a correct solution. Recent discussions, particularly in late January 2026, highlight the increasing role of Artificial Intelligence in tackling these challenges, though concerns are also growing about a rise in AI-generated "nonsense" papers on platforms like arXiv, as noted by mathematician Daniel Litt. Expert opinions vary, with some mathematicians expressing skepticism about the monetary prize, while others hope it popularizes these complex mathematical questions. Currently, speculative markets suggest a low 6% chance of a Millennium Prize Problem being solved in 2026, and Harvard University continues a public lecture series through April 2026 to inspire new generations to engage with these problems.
The Millennium Technology Prize has a clear nomination deadline and award date. This prize operates on a regular cycle, with its next award scheduled for May 2027. The nomination period for this prize, which seeks future-oriented innovations that are scientifically rigorous and globally accessible, opened on November 6, 2025, and is set to close on February 27, 2026. Recent developments in January 2026 include the prize's highlight of the Global Young Scientists Summit as an important career event for young researchers and the announcement of Business Finland as a strategic partner. Discussions concerning this prize primarily focus on the nomination process, eligibility criteria, and the types of innovations that align with its core mission of improving quality of life.

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market exhibits a long-term upward trend, with the implied probability of a Millennium Prize being awarded rising from a baseline of 5.0% to its current level of 12.0%. However, this gradual increase has been punctuated by extreme volatility, particularly in early 2026, when the price fluctuated within a wide 6.0% to 20.0% range. The total traded volume of 2,580 contracts indicates a moderately active market. The significant price swings suggest that volume likely concentrated during these volatile periods, reflecting moments of high market engagement and conviction driven by external news events.
The primary driver of the market's volatility has been speculation surrounding the potential for Artificial Intelligence to solve one of the Clay Mathematics Institute's (CMI) Millennium Prize Problems. A series of rapid price movements in early 2026 illustrates this dynamic. Spikes on January 18 and February 2 were directly caused by social media activity and news about potential AI-driven mathematical breakthroughs, pushing the perceived probability as high as 20.0%. These rallies were quickly followed by sharp drops on January 20 and February 3, as the market corrected itself in the absence of concrete, verifiable progress. This pattern shows traders reassessing the profound difficulty of the CMI problems and tempering initial speculative enthusiasm.
From a technical perspective, the chart suggests a historical support level around the 5.0%-6.0% range, representing the market's baseline probability absent any catalytic news. The 20.0% level has acted as a strong resistance point, marking the peak of speculative fervor that has so far proven unsustainable. The current price of 12.0% indicates that while the market has priced in a higher baseline probability than when it opened, overall sentiment remains cautious. It reflects an acknowledgment of AI's potential but also a deeply rooted skepticism about a verifiable solution being produced and recognized in the near term, with traders quickly selling into unconfirmed hype.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Before 2028

📉 February 03, 2026: 8.0pp drop

Price decreased from 20.0% to 12.0%

What happened: The 8.0 percentage point drop in the "When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded? - Before 2028" prediction market on February 3, 2026, was primarily driven by a collective market reassessment of the extremely low inherent probability of a Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) Millennium Prize Problem being solved and officially verified within the specified timeframe. This re-evaluation occurred in the absence of any new, credible announcements or breakthroughs from the mathematical community leading up to that date, reinforcing the understanding that only one of the seven problems has been solved since 2000 and that solutions typically require extensive verification periods. Social media activity, such as Kevin Roose's December 2025 prediction of an AI solving a problem in 2026, would have likely pushed the price upward, indicating it was mostly noise or irrelevant to this specific downward movement.

📉 January 20, 2026: 12.0pp drop

Price decreased from 18.0% to 6.0%

What happened: The 12.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market "When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?" for the outcome "Before 2028" on January 20, 2026, was primarily driven by the absence of any announced breakthroughs coupled with the ongoing academic reinforcement of the profound difficulty of these unsolved mathematical problems. No specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives explicitly causing a negative shift was identified around this date. Instead, the Clay Mathematics Institute's "Millennium Prize Problems Lecture Series," running from September 2025 to April 2026, with a lecture on the "P vs NP Problem" in December 2025 and another on the "Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture" in February 2026, continually highlighted the enduring, unsolved nature of these challenges, likely dampening expectations for a near-term resolution and award before 2028. The lack of any significant positive news or a credible breakthrough announcement around January 20, 2026, following these discussions, likely contributed to a market correction reflecting a lower probability of an early award.

📈 January 18, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 8.0% to 18.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 10.0 percentage point spike in the "When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded? - Before 2028" prediction market on January 18, 2026, was likely speculation stemming from social media activity concerning an Artificial Intelligence (AI) potentially solving one of the Clay Millennium Prize Problems in 2026. Specifically, a YouTube video from the "Hard Fork" podcast, posted on December 23, 2025, featured Kevin Roose making a "high-confidence prediction" that an AI company would solve one of these complex mathematical problems in 2026, mentioning reports of DeepMind working on the Navier-Stokes equations. This highly credible social media activity, appearing to lead the price move, introduced a new and significant catalyst for the "Before 2028" outcome in the context of the Clay Mathematics Institute's million-dollar prizes for unsolved mathematical problems. Social media was the primary driver.

Outcome: Before 2035

📈 February 02, 2026: 25.0pp spike

Price increased from 49.0% to 74.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 25.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market "When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?" (Outcome: "Before 2035") on February 2, 2026, was likely heightened social media activity surrounding artificial intelligence breakthroughs in mathematics. Specifically, a blog post by influential computer scientist Scott Aaronson on February 1, 2026, mentioned that "Epoch AI has released a list of AI-for-math challenge problems" of "very serious research interest". This, along with a "Hard Fork" podcast from December 23, 2025, featuring a "high-confidence prediction for 2026" that an AI company would solve one of the Millennium Prize problems, fueled speculation about an imminent breakthrough. This social media activity appeared to LEAD the price move by amplifying the narrative that AI was rapidly advancing toward solving complex mathematical problems. Social media was the primary driver.

4. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if the next Millennium Prize is awarded in 2025. It resolves NO if the prize is not awarded during that year. The provided page content does not specify the exact event that triggers resolution (e.g., official announcement vs. award ceremony) or any special settlement conditions.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Implied probability
Before 2035 $0.57 $0.48 57%
Before 2030 $0.29 $0.73 29%
Before 2029 $0.23 $0.80 23%
Before 2028 $0.12 $0.89 12%
Before 2027 $0.06 $0.99 6%

Market Discussion

Discussions surrounding "When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?" generally coalesce around two main viewpoints: the slow, incremental progress by human mathematicians and the potential for a breakthrough via artificial intelligence . Many mathematicians believe the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem is the most likely candidate for the next solution, with some noting potential strategies, while others emphasize the need for entirely new mathematical tools for problems like P vs . NP, making a quick human solution seem distant . Conversely, a significant and growing debate highlights the possibility of an AI company solving one of the remaining six problems in the near future, with some predictions placing this event as early as 2026 or before 2030, particularly for the Navier-Stokes equations .

5. What is the Status of Millennium Prize Problem Solutions (2022-2023)?

Unsolved ProblemsSix Millennium Prize Problems remain unsolved as of February 2026
Qualifying Publications (2022-2023)Zero published complete solutions in major refereed journals
CMI SAB Review StatusNo 2022-2023 manuscripts under official review
No complete solutions to Millennium Problems were published during 2022-2023. No manuscripts claiming a complete solution to any of the six unsolved Millennium Prize Problems were published in major refereed mathematical journals of worldwide repute between Q1 2022 and Q4 2023. Consequently, the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) officially confirms that all six problems remain unsolved as of February 2026, including the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, Hodge Conjecture, Navier-Stokes Existence and Smoothness problem, P vs NP problem, Riemann Hypothesis, and Yang-Mills Existence and Mass Gap problem.
CMI vetting rules prevent current official manuscript review. Due to the absence of qualifying publications in top-tier journals during the Q1 2022 to Q4 2023 period, no manuscripts from this timeframe are currently undergoing official review by the CMI's Scientific Advisory Board (SAB). The CMI rules mandate a minimum two-year waiting period after publication in a 'Qualifying Outlet' for community acceptance before SAB consideration. This rigorous protocol means that any potential prize award in 2025 is exceedingly unlikely, as a qualifying paper would have needed publication by 2022 at the latest to allow for the required vetting period.
Preprint activity does not meet CMI's prize criteria. While the preprint landscape shows active research, with various preprints claiming advances or solutions to problems such as Navier-Stokes and Yang-Mills theory, these works do not currently meet the CMI's stringent publication and community acceptance criteria. For instance, a preprint on the Hodge Conjecture from August 2022 on ResearchGate is not considered a 'Qualifying Outlet' and thus does not qualify for prize consideration. Therefore, despite ongoing efforts, no current work from the specified timeframe or recent post-2023 claims has progressed towards official prize consideration.

6. What's the Protocol for AI-Generated Millennium Prize Proofs?

CMI AI Protocol StatusNo formal public protocol established as of early 2026
Key Verification RequirementExplicitly auditable logical steps (Terence Tao, 2024)
2025 Prediction Market OutcomeNo AI-assisted solutions accepted for Millennium Prize
The Clay Mathematics Institute lacks a formal protocol for AI-generated solutions. Currently, any AI-assisted submission for Millennium Prize Problems must satisfy the same uncompromising standards of mathematical rigor, clarity, and universal verifiability as proofs generated by humans. A significant challenge arises because the internal "reasoning" of large language models (LLMs) is frequently opaque and not presented as a sequence of auditable, symbolic logic, which complicates traditional peer review.
Leading mathematicians emphasize the critical need for auditable AI proof steps. CMI Scientific Advisory Board member Terence Tao, for example, highlights the necessity for "explicitly auditable" logical steps for any AI-generated proof to be considered acceptable. This academic skepticism contrasts with industry optimism regarding the rapid development of AI solutions, primarily due to concerns about the "black box" nature of AI, the potential for hallucinations in proofs, and the fundamental mathematical requirement for deep understanding rather than merely a correct answer.
Practical outcomes highlight significant challenges in verifying opaque AI-derived proofs. The deep-seated difficulties in verifying proofs from non-transparent computational processes were evident in the resolution of a 2025 prediction market, which concluded with no AI-assisted solutions for a Millennium Prize being accepted. An instance of this challenge was a purported AI-assisted solution to the P vs NP problem in July 2025, which ultimately failed to meet the rigorous standards required for official consideration. Future acceptance of AI-generated proofs will likely depend on the development of AI architectures capable of auditable reasoning or the direct generation of formally verified proofs.

7. Will the Millennium Technology Prize Be Awarded in 2025?

Next Award CeremonyMay 2027
2027 Nomination PeriodNovember 6, 2025 – February 27, 2026
2025 Prize ConfirmationNo prize scheduled for 2025
The Millennium Technology Prize will not be awarded in 2025. Technology Academy Finland (TAF) has officially confirmed that the next prize ceremony is scheduled for May 2027, representing a deliberate shift from the previous biennial cycle. The nomination period for the 2027 prize opened on November 6, 2025, and will conclude on February 27, 2026. There are no public statements, press releases, or official website updates from TAF supporting any prize in 2025.
This strategic adjustment to 2027 coincides with a significant expansion of the prize's eligibility criteria. The expanded criteria now include future-oriented, not-yet-commercialized innovations, suggesting a deliberate recalibration of the award cycle. Key partners, such as Business Finland and Orgalim, are actively engaged in supporting and promoting the 12th edition of the prize, which is unequivocally the 2027 cycle. This collective alignment among all key stakeholders reinforces the conclusion that a 2025 award is not planned.

8. Is Geometric Complexity Theory a Viable Solution for P vs NP?

GCT Progress StatusStalled since 2017
Expert P vs NP Consensus99% believe P is not equal to NP
Corporate GCT InvestmentNo significant investment or active projects by Q3 2024
Leading complexity theorists largely view Geometric Complexity Theory with skepticism. Once considered a promising approach to solving the P vs NP problem, GCT's viability has significantly diminished among experts. For instance, Scott Aaronson describes the program as 'overly ambitious,' citing a critical technical setback in 2017 when a key conjecture, fundamental to its original strategy, was disproved. This event effectively stalled GCT's progress, leaving no clear path forward recognized within the mathematical community. The broader theoretical computer science community overwhelmingly maintains a 99% consensus that P is not equal to NP, underscoring the challenge and the necessity for novel approaches to prove this separation.
Major tech research groups show no significant GCT investment or projects. Entities like Google Research and Microsoft Research currently direct their research priorities heavily towards applied AI, quantum computing, cloud infrastructure, and AI for scientific discovery. This strategic focus indicates that Geometric Complexity Theory is not perceived as aligning with either near-term or strategic corporate objectives. This absence of corporate engagement corresponds with prediction markets for a Millennium Prize, which assign a very low probability to a near-term award. Such market sentiment reflects the academic consensus that no current approach, including GCT, is on a clear and imminent path to solving P vs NP, due in part to significant theoretical barriers.

9. What is the Projected Timeline for a 2025 Millennium Prize Award?

SAC Recommendation DeadlineQ2-Q3 2024 (by July 31, 2024)
SAB Review PeriodQ4 2024 - Q1 2025
Projected Public AnnouncementQ3 - Q4 2025
Clay Institute timelines are non-public, requiring historical projection. The Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) does not publicize specific procedural calendars for its Millennium Prize awards, making projections for a potential 2025 award challenging . This report analyzes historical precedents, particularly the 2010 award for the Poincaré Conjecture, and CMI's governance structure to project a probable timeline for a 2025 announcement. The analysis is framed by a prediction market set to resolve in 2025 ,.
Special advisory committee must recommend by July 31, 2024. To facilitate a prize deliberation and public award in 2025, a special advisory committee must submit a formal recommendation to the CMI Scientific Advisory Board (SAB) by Q2-Q3 2024, approximately July 31, 2024. This critical deadline is informed by the multi-year verification and deliberation model of the Perelman case, which suggests a proposed solution must have achieved community acceptance by late 2023. This allows sufficient time for the SAB review during Q4 2024 - Q1 2025 and the Board of Directors' final approval in Q1 - Q2 2025, aiming for a public announcement in Q3 - Q4 2025 , , .
CMI's hierarchical review process may cause award delays. The CMI's hierarchical governance structure for prize evaluation involves an ad hoc Special Advisory Committee for technical assessment, a standing Scientific Advisory Board (SAB) for scientific oversight, and ultimately the Board of Directors for final authorization , . While this timeline is projected, delays are plausible due to the rigorous review process, potential proof issues, or procedural concerns. Such delays would likely push any announcement beyond 2025, negatively resolving the associated prediction market.

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Bullish catalysts for a Millennium Prize award before January 1, 2035, primarily involve the publication of a major, credible preprint of a solution to one of the six remaining problems on a respected server like arXiv.org, ideally by early 2033 to allow for the mandatory two-year review period. Further positive indicators would include a strong presentation at a major mathematics conference, such as the International Congress of Mathematicians (ICM) in July 2026, widespread positive informal peer review, and ultimately, a formal acceptance announcement by the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) that a solution has met their criteria for consideration. Conversely, bearish catalysts would include the discrediting of a highly anticipated proof attempt by the mathematical community, signifying a setback. A lack of significant breakthroughs or widely recognized progress at key conferences like the ICM 2026, or explicit statements from prominent mathematicians expressing pessimism about an imminent solution, would also reduce the likelihood of an award before the settlement date. While less common, a CMI statement on the intractability of the problems could also be a bearish signal.

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 01, 2035
  • Closes: January 01, 2035

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Bullish catalysts for a Millennium Prize award before January 1, 2035, primarily involve the publication of a major, credible preprint of a solution to one of the six remaining problems on a respected server like arXiv.org, ideally by early 2033 to allow for the mandatory two-year review period [^] .
  • Trigger: Further positive indicators would include a strong presentation at a major mathematics conference, such as the International Congress of Mathematicians (ICM) in July 2026, widespread positive informal peer review, and ultimately, a formal acceptance announcement by the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) that a solution has met their criteria for consideration [^] .
  • Trigger: Conversely, bearish catalysts would include the discrediting of a highly anticipated proof attempt by the mathematical community, signifying a setback [^] .
  • Trigger: A lack of significant breakthroughs or widely recognized progress at key conferences like the ICM 2026, or explicit statements from prominent mathematicians expressing pessimism about an imminent solution, would also reduce the likelihood of an award before the settlement date [^] .

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 1 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXMILLENNIUM-25: NO (Jan 01, 2026)