When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect the next Millennium Prize to be awarded before 2035, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Research on Millennium Prize Problem proofs encountered critical server errors.
- CMI charter clauses and schedule details were unavailable due to errors.
- Award requires solution publication in a refereed mathematics journal.
- Solution must be published by mid-2032 for a prize before 2035.
- Two years are needed for community acceptance and CMI examination.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2028 | 16.0% | 15.0% | Expanding computational power and collaborative research could accelerate progress towards an early solution. |
| Before 2027 | 6.0% | 5.0% | Intense focus by top mathematicians might yield an unexpected solution in the very near term. |
| Before 2030 | 33.0% | 30.5% | Historical precedent indicates that solutions to these fundamental problems require decades of concerted effort. |
| Before 2029 | 21.0% | 18.5% | Solving such profoundly complex problems typically demands many years of dedicated, groundbreaking mathematical work. |
| Before 2035 | 57.0% | 54.0% | The longer timeframe allows for the development of new mathematical tools and approaches for problem-solving. |
Current Context
Discussions on "Millennium Prizes" distinguish two very different awards. People are currently searching for, discussing, and debating the timing of "the next Millennium Prize" primarily in two distinct contexts: the recurring Millennium Technology Prize for technological innovations, and the Millennium Prize Problems, which are mathematical challenges with no set award schedule [^]. The Millennium Technology Prize is awarded biennially for groundbreaking technological innovations that improve the quality of life, whereas the Millennium Prize Problems, established by the Clay Mathematics Institute, are seven profound mathematical problems, each with a $1 million prize offered for its first correct solution [^]. Only one of these mathematical problems has been solved to date [^].
The Millennium Technology Prize is scheduled for May 2027. The next Millennium Technology Prize will be awarded in May 2027, with the prize amount being one million euros [^]. The global call for nominations for the 2027 prize, which opened on November 6, 2025, is currently active and will close on February 27, 2026 [^]. As of late February 2026, recent news from earlier in the month indicated that the prize was represented at the World Economic Forum, with discussions related to young researchers [^]. Eligibility criteria have been expanded to include revolutionary innovations not yet adopted worldwide commercially [^]. Following the nomination deadline, an International Selection Committee will evaluate nominations from March to November 2026, with the decision on the 2027 winner(s) expected in December 2026 [^]. The announcement of the winner(s) is anticipated in Spring 2027, and the award ceremony is set for June 2, 2027 [^]. Common questions revolve around the nomination process, eligibility requirements for innovations, and the detailed selection timeline [^].
Solving Millennium Prize Problems requires entirely new mathematical breakthroughs. There has been no news in the last seven days regarding a new solution to any of the six outstanding Millennium Prize Problems [^]. The six unsolved problems are the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, the Navier–Stokes Existence and Smoothness problem, the P vs NP problem, the Riemann Hypothesis, and Yang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap, each carrying a $1 million prize [^]. Only one problem, the Poincaré Conjecture, was solved by Grigori Perelman in 2003, who declined the prize in 2010 [^]. Mathematicians highlight that these problems often require the invention of entirely new mathematical frameworks, and some may even be unprovable with current tools [^]. While some experts like Andrew Wiles hoped the prize would popularize mathematics, others like Anatoly Vershik characterized the monetary prize as "show business," arguing that money is generally not seen as the primary motivator for top mathematicians tackling these challenges [^]. Predictions about the next solution vary, with some speculative markets forecasting a solution "before 2035" (57% probability), "before 2030" (33%), or "before 2029" (17%) [^]. There are no scheduled upcoming events or deadlines for awarding a Millennium Prize for these mathematical problems, as awards are contingent upon a verified solution being submitted [^]. Common questions include why only one problem has been solved since 2000, which of the remaining six problems is most likely to be solved next (with Navier-Stokes, P vs NP, and the Riemann Hypothesis sometimes suggested as "easiest to understand" but not necessarily easiest to solve), and the effectiveness of a monetary prize as a motivator [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market for the next Millennium Prize has been characterized by a long-term downward trend, punctuated by a significant period of high volatility. The market began with a 20.0% probability, trended downwards, but experienced a dramatic spike to a peak of 40.0% in early February 2026 before collapsing. The current price of 15.0% is near the market's all-time low of 12.0%, reflecting a sustained pessimistic outlook from traders. The overall price action indicates that early optimism has waned considerably over the life of the market.
The primary driver of the market's volatility in February 2026 was a brief but intense focus on the Millennium Prize Problems, as distinct from the regularly scheduled Millennium Technology Prize. The 14.0 percentage point spike on February 2 was a direct reaction to news about a comprehensive article from Stephen Wolfram on the P vs. NP problem, one of the seven mathematical challenges. This generated speculative buying based on the possibility of a breakthrough. However, this optimism quickly evaporated. The subsequent price drops on February 3 and February 10, totaling a 32.0 percentage point decline from the peak, were a market correction. Traders reassessed the situation, realizing the extremely high bar and lengthy verification process required by the Clay Mathematics Institute for any proposed solution, and the lack of any official follow-up news led to a sharp reversal.
From a technical perspective, the market has established a firm resistance level at the $0.40 peak, which was swiftly rejected. The current price of $0.15 is hovering just above the historic support level of $0.12. The total traded volume of 5,537 contracts suggests moderate but consistent engagement, with activity likely concentrated during the February 2026 spike and fall. The sustained downward trend and the current price near the support floor indicate a strong consensus among market participants. The market sentiment is decidedly bearish, reflecting the belief that a solution to one of the difficult mathematical problems is not imminent and that the distinction from the more predictable Technology Prize is now well understood by traders.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Before 2028
📉 February 10, 2026: 24.0pp drop
Price decreased from 40.0% to 16.0%
What happened: The 24.0 percentage point drop in the "Before 2028" outcome for the "When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?" market on February 10, 2026, was primarily driven by a market correction stemming from the absence of any concrete news or social media activity indicating progress on solving a Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) Millennium Prize Problem [^]. Prior speculative optimism, such as a December 2025 podcast predicting an AI solution to one of these problems in 2026, may have inflated the price [^]. However, by February 2026, official CMI announcements focused on research fellowships and academic lectures on existing problems, rather than breakthroughs, reinforcing the extreme difficulty and unlikelihood of an imminent solution and award by 2028 [^]. Social media was therefore mostly noise, contributing to earlier unconfirmed optimism that was not substantiated [^].
📉 February 03, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 20.0% to 12.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point drop in the "Before 2028" outcome for the "When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?" market on February 3, 2026, appears to be a renewed understanding or clarification of the stringent and lengthy process required for the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) to officially recognize a solution [^]. A Medium article published on January 1, 2026, by Lane Cunningham, titled "A Unified Framework for the Millennium Prize Problems," claimed a submission of a manuscript proposing solutions to several problems [^]. However, the article itself stated that the CMI requires two years of community acceptance after publication in a peer-reviewed journal before considering a solution, effectively pushing any potential award recognition beyond the "Before 2028" timeframe [^]. This social media activity likely coincided with the price move by highlighting the unlikelihood of a quick resolution and award [^]. Social media, specifically the discussion surrounding Lane Cunningham's January 2026 Medium post, was a (a) primary driver, by emphasizing the multi-year process for formal recognition of a Millennium Prize solution [^].
Outcome: Before 2035
📉 February 04, 2026: 16.0pp drop
Price decreased from 74.0% to 58.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 16.0 percentage point drop in the "When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded [^]? - Before 2035" prediction market on February 4, 2026, was a traditional academic event: the "Millennium Prize Problems Lecture" hosted by the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) and Harvard CMSA [^]. On this date, Professor Barry Mazur delivered a lecture titled "About the Birch and Swinnerton–Dyer Conjecture," discussing one of the enduringly unsolved Millennium Prize Problems [^]. This event, directly related to the awarding body, likely served to temper market optimism by implicitly reinforcing the profound difficulty and lack of immediate breakthroughs concerning these problems, leading to a reassessment of the likelihood of a prize being awarded before 2035 [^]. Social media was not identified as a primary driver for this specific price movement, with no clear influential posts or viral narratives directly causing the drop [^].
📈 February 02, 2026: 25.0pp spike
Price increased from 49.0% to 74.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 25.0 percentage point spike in the "Before 2035" outcome for the "When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?" market on February 2, 2026, was likely the discussion surrounding Stephen Wolfram's comprehensive article on the P vs [^]. NP problem [^]. On January 30, 2026, Wolfram published "P vs [^]. NP and the Difficulty of Computation: A Ruliological Approach," exploring one of the Millennium Prize Problems [^]. Although Wolfram explicitly stated his work would "not resolve the P vs [^]. NP question," his prominent analysis of such a significant problem, and the subsequent discussion on social media platforms like Hacker News on the same day, appeared to lead the price move [^]. This renewed public and academic attention on a Millennium Prize Problem likely fueled speculation among market participants about an accelerated timeline for a potential solution, driving the "Before 2035" outcome upwards [^]. Social media was a contributing accelerant, amplifying the reach and discussion of Wolfram's article just days before the market movement [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided page content, this market is about the timing of the next Millennium Prize.
1. YES Resolution: The market resolves YES if the next Millennium Prize is awarded at any point during the calendar year 2025. 2. NO Resolution: The market resolves NO if the next Millennium Prize is not awarded in 2025. This includes if it's awarded before 2025, after 2025, or never. 3. Key Dates/Deadlines: The year 2025 is the central timeframe for the prize award to occur. 4. Special Settlement Conditions: No special settlement conditions are specified in this excerpt.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2035 | $0.57 | $0.49 | 57% |
| Before 2030 | $0.33 | $0.72 | 33% |
| Before 2029 | $0.21 | $0.84 | 21% |
| Before 2028 | $0.16 | $0.86 | 16% |
| Before 2027 | $0.06 | $0.97 | 6% |
Market Discussion
Discussions surrounding "when the next Millennium Prize will be awarded" primarily focus on the resolution of one of the Clay Mathematics Institute's remaining six unsolved mathematical problems, rather than a scheduled award date for the prize itself [^]. Prediction markets generally indicate low probabilities for a solution in the near future, with some platforms showing around a 17-33% chance of a problem being solved before 2030, rising to about 57-58% before 2035 [^]. Experts and social media conversations highlight the extreme difficulty of problems like P vs [^]. NP and the Riemann Hypothesis, suggesting they may require entirely new mathematical frameworks, and there's a growing debate on the potential for artificial intelligence to achieve a breakthrough [^].
5. Why did the research request result in an error?
| Research Status | Failed (502 Bad Gateway) |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Bad Gateway (HTML error page received instead of data) |
| Details | Service currently unavailable; please try again later. |
The research query encountered a server error, preventing completion. The request regarding specific credible proof for one of the six unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, published after January 2023 and currently undergoing formal verification by the Clay Mathematics Institute or its designated committees, could not be successfully completed. Instead of providing relevant findings, the system received an HTML error page indicating a "502 Bad Gateway" status.
A "502 Bad Gateway" error denotes an invalid server response. This specific error signifies that the server, while acting as a gateway or proxy, received an invalid response from an upstream server it accessed. This occurred during its attempt to fulfill the initial research request. Consequently, the service required to complete this research is currently unavailable.
Retrying the research is advised, as issues are often temporary. It is recommended to attempt performing the research again after a short interval, typically a few minutes. Such server-related issues, including a '502 Bad Gateway' status, are frequently temporary and may resolve themselves quickly.
6. Why Did the Research Query Encounter a Bad Gateway Error?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Code | 502 Bad Gateway |
| Request ID | 9d347de6485aff66-BOM |
The research process encountered a 502 Bad Gateway error, halting information retrieval. This specific type of error typically indicates that the service attempting to fulfill the request was either unavailable or experienced an issue communicating with an upstream server. As a direct consequence, no specific findings pertinent to the original query regarding the CMI's procedures, the Perelman case, or the timeline for a 2025 award could be extracted from the provided research text.
No specific findings were extracted, necessitating a future retry of research. It is recommended that the research attempt be repeated at a later time, as the nature of a 502 Bad Gateway error suggests it might be temporary. Troubleshooting guidance for this error type is available within Render's documentation for further assistance.
7. Why was the research request unsuccessful?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | 502 Bad Gateway |
| Reason | Service currently unavailable |
Research on the Millennium Technology Prize charter clauses encountered a critical server error. The request to identify specific clauses permitting an 'extraordinary' prize in 2025, outside its normal 2027 schedule, could not be completed successfully. This failure was due to a '502 Bad Gateway' error, which indicates that the server acting as a gateway or proxy received an invalid response from an upstream server.
The server error prevented extraction of any specific findings or data points. Consequently, no information regarding the MTP charter's provisions for an out-of-schedule prize could be retrieved from the requested source. The service responsible for providing the research content was unavailable at the time the request was made.
This type of server issue is typically temporary and often resolves itself. Users are generally advised to attempt the request again after a few minutes, as such '502 Bad Gateway' errors can be transient.
8. What Was the Outcome of the Research Query?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | 502 Bad Gateway |
| Request ID | 9d347de83fd02a99-BOM |
Research encountered a critical error, preventing data retrieval. The attempt to gather information regarding significant increases in preprint submissions or dedicated workshops for unsolved problems, excluding P vs NP and the Riemann Hypothesis, resulted in a '502 Bad Gateway' status. This error indicates that the service was temporarily unavailable, preventing the successful fulfillment of the data request. Consequently, no specific findings related to the initial research question could be extracted.
This error precluded further analysis and data summarization. Due to the critical system unavailability, it was impossible to proceed with the analysis of key data points or to provide detailed paragraphs as originally requested. It is recommended that the research query be retried at a later time, as this type of issue is typically transient.
9. Could Not Process Research Due to Server Error?
| Status | 502 Bad Gateway (Source: Render.com Error Page) |
|---|---|
| Request ID | 9d347de56fd6b79c-BOM (Source: Render.com Error Page) |
| Service Availability | Unavailable (Source: Render.com Error Page) |
Research findings regarding the CMI schedule are currently unavailable due to a server error. The requested research findings could not be processed because the server returned a "502 Bad Gateway" error. This indicates that the service responsible for generating the research is either currently unavailable or experienced an issue communicating with an upstream server.
The server error prevents access to specific CMI schedule details. The error page suggests that the service is temporarily unavailable and advises attempting the request again in a few minutes. Without access to the actual research content, it is impossible to extract specific findings or data points concerning the CMI's established 2025 meeting schedule for its Scientific Advisory Board or the typical lead time between their final recommendation and an official public announcement.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts and Timeline
The market's probability hinges on the highly unpredictable event of a solution to one of the six remaining Millennium Prize Problems being published in a refereed mathematics journal [^] . For a prize to be awarded before the 2035 settlement date, such a solution would need to be published by mid-2032 at the absolute latest [^]. This timeline allows for the minimum two-year period of community acceptance and subsequent detailed examination by the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) [^]. An earlier, bullish indicator could be the release of a significant pre-print that quickly gains widespread attention and preliminary endorsement from leading experts, suggesting an imminent breakthrough [^]. Conversely, the most significant bearish catalyst is the continued absence of a widely accepted and formally published solution [^]. These problems are famously difficult, some having remained unsolved for over a century, often requiring the development of entirely new mathematical frameworks [^]. As time passes without a credible solution emerging and progressing through formal acceptance, the likelihood of a prize being awarded before 2035 decreases [^]. Explicit statements from leading mathematicians or the CMI itself, emphasizing the extreme difficulty or current lack of promising research avenues, could also act as a bearish signal [^]. Key dates to watch include the International Congress of Mathematicians (ICM) in July 2026, which could serve as a platform for informal discussions about progress on major problems [^]. The hypothetical publication date for a solution, mid-2032, is critical, as it is the latest point for a publication to meet the two-year community acceptance period and CMI review before the 2035 settlement date [^]. Additionally, the diminishing real value of the $1 million prize due to inflation since its inception in 2000 is considered by some to be a potential disincentive, while ongoing monitoring of specialized conferences and journal publications remains crucial for any indications of breakthroughs [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2035
- Closes: January 01, 2035
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The market's probability hinges on the highly unpredictable event of a solution to one of the six remaining Millennium Prize Problems being published in a refereed mathematics journal [^] .
- Trigger: For a prize to be awarded before the 2035 settlement date, such a solution would need to be published by mid-2032 at the absolute latest [^] .
- Trigger: This timeline allows for the minimum two-year period of community acceptance and subsequent detailed examination by the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) [^] .
- Trigger: An earlier, bullish indicator could be the release of a significant pre-print that quickly gains widespread attention and preliminary endorsement from leading experts, suggesting an imminent breakthrough [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 1 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXMILLENNIUM-25: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
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