What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earbuds/Headphones | 70.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Clip-on device for clothing | 41.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Glasses | 16.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Phone | 13.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| Necklace | 18.0% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earbuds/Headphones | $0.70 | $0.36 | 70% |
| Clip-on device for clothing | $0.41 | $0.65 | 41% |
| Necklace | $0.18 | $0.88 | 18% |
| Watch | $0.17 | $0.90 | 17% |
| Glasses | $0.16 | $0.91 | 16% |
| Ring | $0.14 | $0.93 | 14% |
| Head-mounted display | $0.13 | $0.94 | 13% |
| Phone | $0.13 | $0.94 | 13% |
| Computer | $0.12 | $0.96 | 12% |
| Tablet | $0.11 | $0.95 | 11% |
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