Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect NASA to land on the moon before 2028, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Research queries encountered internal server errors, preventing data retrieval.
  • Successful Artemis II launch by April 2026 builds confidence in Orion/SLS.
  • Accelerated Starship HLS development, refueling, and uncrewed tests are vital.
  • Consistent Congressional funding is essential for the Artemis program.
  • Market sentiment currently aligns with Octagon's analytical probability.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before 2027 5.0% 4.5% Artemis III would need to overcome current development delays for a 2026 launch.
Before 2028 17.0% 15.5% NASA's Artemis III mission is currently targeting a human lunar landing by late 2026 or 2027.

Current Context

NASA's Artemis II mission faces another delay to its crewed lunar flyby. The most significant recent development is the further postponement of the Artemis II mission, now targeting no earlier than April 1, 2026, a shift from the previous March 2026 launch window [^]. This latest delay stems from a newly identified helium flow issue in the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket's upper stage, which emerged after a successful wet dress rehearsal on February 19, 2026, despite prior liquid hydrogen fuel leaks appearing resolved [^]. The SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft are currently being rolled back to the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) for repairs [^]. Prior to this, NASA had briefly aimed for a March 6, 2026, launch, and the four-person crew (NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and CSA astronaut Jeremy Hansen) had already entered mandatory quarantine [^]. Artemis II is designed as a 10-day crewed lunar flyby to test Orion's systems, deep-space propulsion, navigation, life support, and re-entry procedures, serving as a critical precursor to the Artemis III lunar landing [^]. Specific potential launch opportunities for April include the 1st, 3rd-6th, and 30th [^].
Significant technical and programmatic challenges persist across the Artemis program. Experts voice concerns about the Orion spacecraft's heat shield, which exhibited unexpected damage after the uncrewed Artemis I mission due to pressure buildup from trapped gases; while NASA adjusted the re-entry trajectory for Artemis II, some experts are critical of the manufacturing approach [^]. Recurring liquid hydrogen leaks in the SLS have been a persistent problem, impacting both Artemis I and Artemis II dress rehearsals [^]. Additionally, former astronauts have raised issues regarding the weight and bulkiness of the Axiom Extravehicular Mobility Unit (AxEMU) spacesuits [^]. Reliance on SpaceX's Starship as the Human Landing System (HLS) for Artemis III is another point of concern, given its early development stage and test flight failures, leading critics to question its readiness for set deadlines [^]. The Office of the Inspector General (OIG) has frequently highlighted NASA's management challenges, noting consistent cost overruns and delays, with each SLS launch estimated at $4.2 billion and $42 billion already spent on system development [^]. The Artemis III crewed lunar landing, planned for the Moon's South Pole, is currently projected for no earlier than mid-2027, with some experts suggesting a slip to 2028 [^].
The program faces common questions about safety, costs, and public interest. Upcoming events include the ongoing SLS/Orion rollback and repairs, followed by a comprehensive Flight Readiness Review (FRR) likely at the end of February or early March. The crew for Artemis III has not yet been selected [^]. Internationally, China presents a competitive lunar program, aiming to land humans on the Moon by 2030 and test its Mengzhou crewed spacecraft in 2026 [^]. Primary concerns among the public and experts include astronaut safety, given the issues with the heat shield, previous hydrogen leaks, and the new helium problem [^]. Frequent mission delays, with Artemis II pushed from an initial November 2024 target through multiple subsequent dates to April 2026, raise questions about the program's overall timeline and feasibility [^]. The multi-billion dollar costs spark debate about cost-effectiveness and resource allocation [^]. Comparisons to the Apollo program are common, questioning the extended timeline and increased expenses to return to the Moon [^]. While NASA enjoys general pride, public support for human Moon or Mars missions as a top priority is lower compared to other NASA functions like Earth climate monitoring or asteroid defense, reflecting a historical trend of waning interest after Apollo 11 [^].

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market's price chart indicates a consistently low probability of a NASA moon landing by the end of 2031, with a clear bearish trend over time. The market opened at a modest 9.0% ($0.09) probability and has since decayed by over 50% to its current price of 4.0% ($0.04). The price has operated within a distinct range, with a historical high near $0.16 acting as a firm resistance level and a low around $0.03 serving as a key support level. The current price action is notable for its proximity to this all-time low, suggesting that market participant confidence is near its weakest point in the market's history. The overall price movement is not one of high volatility, but rather a slow, persistent erosion of confidence.
The primary driver of the downward price pressure is the series of publicly announced delays and technical issues with the Artemis program. The most recent decline towards the $0.04 level can be directly attributed to the news of another postponement for the Artemis II mission, now scheduled for no earlier than April 2026. Because Artemis II is a necessary precursor to the Artemis III landing mission, any delay to it has a direct, negative cascading effect on the timeline for the landing itself. The market is logically interpreting the helium flow issue and the rocket's rollback to the Vehicle Assembly Building as significant setbacks that make a 2031 landing increasingly unlikely. The price action reflects the market's consistent judgment that NASA's official timelines are optimistic and prone to slips.
The total trading volume of over 68,000 contracts indicates that this is a reasonably liquid and active market, giving credibility to the price as a signal of collective belief. Trading volume likely spikes around major news announcements, such as the recent delay. The sustained low price, hovering just above the $0.03 support floor, demonstrates strong market conviction in the negative outcome. Market sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish, with the 4.0% probability implying a consensus that the technical and logistical hurdles facing the Artemis program are too significant to be overcome within the timeframe specified by the market's resolution date.

3. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

The provided page content is insufficient to determine the specific resolution triggers for YES or NO, key dates/deadlines, or any special settlement conditions for the "NASA lands on the moon?" market. The extract only provides the market title and navigational links, lacking the detailed contract rules.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Implied probability
Before 2028 $0.17 $0.86 17%
Before 2027 $0.05 $0.96 5%

Market Discussion

Discussions surrounding "NASA lands on the moon" largely revolve around the ambitious Artemis program, focusing on its protracted timeline, escalating costs, and technical challenges with components like the Human Landing System and new spacesuits [^]. While proponents emphasize the program's historical significance, inspirational value, and role in a new space race with China, critics question its efficiency and political drivers for accelerated deadlines [^]. Prediction markets reflect this uncertainty, indicating a low probability of a crewed NASA moon landing by 2027, with 2028 or later being more likely due to ongoing delays and development hurdles [^].

4. What Findings Are Available For This Research Query?

Research StatusError encountered (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNo data available for extraction
Recommended ActionRetry research query later
The research query encountered an internal server error, yielding no data. An internal server error occurred during the research process, which prevented the retrieval of any specific findings for the requested query. Consequently, no data points or detailed insights could be extracted regarding the quantitative exit criteria for the Orion heat shield's material and process control review, nor the validation of its redesigned venting system.
No findings are currently available; re-attempting research is recommended. This technical issue means that there are currently no available findings to summarize or present in the requested format concerning whether ground-based arc jet testing successfully validated the redesigned venting system to prevent the specific mode of gas-buildup-induced char liberation observed after Artemis I. It is therefore recommended to re-attempt the research query at a later time to gather the necessary information.

5. What Was the Outcome of the Research Query?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNone
Citations Found0
A technical error prevented retrieval of SpaceX cryogenic refueling data. The research query encountered an 'Internal Server Error,' which directly prevented the retrieval of any specific findings or data points regarding SpaceX's in-orbit cryogenic refueling tests. This technical issue meant the system could not successfully process the request for information on demonstrated success rates, propellant transfer efficiency, or compliance with NASA's Human Landing System (HLS) Appendix H milestone schedule.
No performance data or metrics could be reported. Consequently, due to the complete system failure caused by this internal error, there is no content available to summarize. The research could not yield any key metrics, performance data, or statistics related to SpaceX's cryogenic refueling efforts. Therefore, the original research request for specific findings and performance data could not be fulfilled.

6. Why Was the Research Question Unavailable?

Research StatusUnavailable (Internal Server Error)
Data PointsNot applicable
Further DetailsNo specific findings to report
Specific funding data for SLS Block 1B EUS was unavailable. The research query encountered an internal server error, making it impossible to retrieve any specific findings or data points regarding the requested funding levels for the SLS Block 1B Exploration Upper Stage (EUS) and Axiom/Collins next-generation spacesuits.
No requested metrics or comparisons could be generated. Consequently, there is no information available concerning the specific funding allocations in the final enacted FY2026 Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies appropriations bill, nor any comparison to NASA's internal Program Objective Memorandum figures required to meet a mid-2027 Artemis III launch.

7. Why Could Not The Research Findings Be Retrieved?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data Extraction OutcomeNo findings available
Impact on ReportContent could not be generated
A technical error prevented information retrieval for the Gateway modules. The research process encountered an unexpected internal server error during its attempt to retrieve information regarding the manufacturing, testing status, and integration schedule of the Gateway's HALO (Habitation and Logistics Outpost) and PPE (Power and Propulsion Element) modules. This technical issue prevented the successful completion of the data gathering phase for the requested query, which also sought to determine any remaining float in their integration schedule before their co-manifested launch impacts the Artemis III mission.
No module status information is currently available due to this error. As a direct consequence of this technical issue, no specific findings, data points, or supporting textual content could be extracted or generated for the requested query. Therefore, this report is unable to provide the requested details at this time. Further attempts to execute the research query may be necessary to resolve the underlying server problem and obtain the required information for analysis and reporting.

8. What Information is Available Regarding Research Failures?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data Points ExtractedNone
Citations IdentifiedZero
Information retrieval was prevented by an internal server error. The research request encountered an internal server error that prevented the successful retrieval of any information regarding the officially scheduled date for the formal Artemis III Agency-level Program Status Review (PSR) or the specific hardware systems with the least amount of schedule slack.
No specific findings or data could be extracted. As a direct result of this operational error, no specific findings, data points, or supporting details could be extracted for the query. Therefore, it is not possible to provide a summary of key findings, relevant metrics, or textual analysis at this time, as the system was unable to access or process the necessary data.

9. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

A crewed lunar landing by NASA by December 31, 2027, hinges on several critical bullish catalysts. A successful and on-schedule Artemis II launch, targeted for April 2026, would build confidence in the Orion spacecraft and Space Launch System (SLS) [^]. Accelerated development and testing of SpaceX's Starship Human Landing System (HLS), including successful orbital refueling demonstrations by June 2026 and an uncrewed lunar landing test by June 2027, are also crucial [^]. Furthermore, strong and consistent Congressional funding for the Artemis program and expedited integration and readiness reviews for Artemis III components would support an earlier timeline [^].
Conversely, several bearish catalysts could push the probability of a 2027 landing lower. Further delays to Artemis II beyond its April 2026 target, such as the recent helium system problem, would directly impact the Artemis III schedule [^]. Significant technical challenges or failures with Starship HLS development, testing, or critical demonstrations like orbital refueling and uncrewed lunar landing, pose a substantial risk [^]. Budget cuts, political shifts impacting NASA's Artemis program, or unforeseen technical issues with the SLS or Orion spacecraft, such as identified heat shield or valve problems, could also lead to delays beyond the 2027 timeframe [^]. NASA's official timeline already expects Artemis III no earlier than 2028, with SpaceX's internal timeline also indicating September 2028 or later due to Starship delays [^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: December 31, 2027
  • Closes: December 31, 2027

10. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: A crewed lunar landing by NASA by December 31, 2027, hinges on several critical bullish catalysts.
  • Trigger: A successful and on-schedule Artemis II launch, targeted for April 2026, would build confidence in the Orion spacecraft and Space Launch System (SLS) [^] .
  • Trigger: Accelerated development and testing of SpaceX's Starship Human Landing System (HLS), including successful orbital refueling demonstrations by June 2026 and an uncrewed lunar landing test by June 2027, are also crucial [^] .
  • Trigger: Furthermore, strong and consistent Congressional funding for the Artemis program and expedited integration and readiness reviews for Artemis III components would support an earlier timeline [^] .

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 2 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 2 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • MOON-25DEC31: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
  • MOON-25: NO (Jan 01, 2025)