NASA lands on the moon?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Research queries encountered internal server errors, preventing data retrieval.
- Successful Artemis II launch by April 2026 builds confidence in Orion/SLS.
- Accelerated Starship HLS development, refueling, and uncrewed tests are vital.
- Consistent Congressional funding is essential for the Artemis program.
- Market sentiment currently aligns with Octagon's analytical probability.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 5.0% | 4.5% | Artemis III would need to overcome current development delays for a 2026 launch. |
| Before 2028 | 17.0% | 15.5% | NASA's Artemis III mission is currently targeting a human lunar landing by late 2026 or 2027. |
Current Context
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The provided page content is insufficient to determine the specific resolution triggers for YES or NO, key dates/deadlines, or any special settlement conditions for the "NASA lands on the moon?" market. The extract only provides the market title and navigational links, lacking the detailed contract rules.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2028 | $0.17 | $0.86 | 17% |
| Before 2027 | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
Market Discussion
Discussions surrounding "NASA lands on the moon" largely revolve around the ambitious Artemis program, focusing on its protracted timeline, escalating costs, and technical challenges with components like the Human Landing System and new spacesuits [^]. While proponents emphasize the program's historical significance, inspirational value, and role in a new space race with China, critics question its efficiency and political drivers for accelerated deadlines [^]. Prediction markets reflect this uncertainty, indicating a low probability of a crewed NASA moon landing by 2027, with 2028 or later being more likely due to ongoing delays and development hurdles [^].
4. What Findings Are Available For This Research Query?
| Research Status | Error encountered (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | No data available for extraction |
| Recommended Action | Retry research query later |
5. What Was the Outcome of the Research Query?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Citations Found | 0 |
6. Why Was the Research Question Unavailable?
| Research Status | Unavailable (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Points | Not applicable |
| Further Details | No specific findings to report |
7. Why Could Not The Research Findings Be Retrieved?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Extraction Outcome | No findings available |
| Impact on Report | Content could not be generated |
8. What Information is Available Regarding Research Failures?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Points Extracted | None |
| Citations Identified | Zero |
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: December 31, 2027
- Closes: December 31, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: A crewed lunar landing by NASA by December 31, 2027, hinges on several critical bullish catalysts.
- Trigger: A successful and on-schedule Artemis II launch, targeted for April 2026, would build confidence in the Orion spacecraft and Space Launch System (SLS) [^] .
- Trigger: Accelerated development and testing of SpaceX's Starship Human Landing System (HLS), including successful orbital refueling demonstrations by June 2026 and an uncrewed lunar landing test by June 2027, are also crucial [^] .
- Trigger: Furthermore, strong and consistent Congressional funding for the Artemis program and expedited integration and readiness reviews for Artemis III components would support an earlier timeline [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 2 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 2 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- MOON-25DEC31: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
- MOON-25: NO (Jan 01, 2025)
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