Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect NASA to land on the moon before 2028, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Executive Verdict

  • SLS Core Stage-3 production faces an aggressive timeline for Artemis III.
  • SpaceX must complete two key HLS contract demonstrations for Artemis III.
  • Axiom completed AxEMU spacesuit Preliminary Design Review in March 2025.
  • Artemis III requires a critical time buffer after Artemis II splashdown.
  • Successful Artemis II mission validates SLS and Orion spacecraft systems.
  • Timely Starship HLS development, including orbital refueling, is critical.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before 2027 7% 0% Significant development delays for the Starship Human Landing System push timelines past 2026.
Before 2028 18% 16% Successful completion of Artemis II and Starship development could enable a landing by 2027.

Current Context

NASA's Artemis II mission is delayed due to technical issues. The most significant recent development is NASA's decision to delay the first crewed flight of the Artemis program, Artemis II, until at least March 2026,,. This delay was announced following a critical "wet dress rehearsal" on February 2-3, 2026, during which engineers detected a liquid hydrogen leak at the base of the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket,,. Other issues encountered included a problem with a valve associated with the Orion capsule and recurring audio communication dropouts among ground teams. Following the delay, the four Artemis II astronauts, who had been in quarantine since January 21, were released. NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman emphasized that the rehearsal successfully identified issues before flight, prioritizing safety.
The Artemis program aims for a sustainable lunar presence. The Artemis II mission is designed as a 10-day crewed flyby around the Moon, not a landing, with the primary goal of testing the Orion spacecraft's systems and hardware in deep space with a human crew,,. The mission's crew includes NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, and Christina Koch, alongside Canadian Space Agency astronaut Jeremy Hansen. The first crewed lunar landing since Apollo 17 in 1972 is planned for mid-2027 with the Artemis III mission, targeting the lunar South Pole,. The overall program goals are to establish a sustainable human presence on the Moon, land the first woman and first person of color on the lunar surface, explore the Moon's South Pole region for water ice, and lay groundwork for eventual human missions to Mars,. Experts like John Honeycutt from the Artemis II Mission Management Team described the rocket as "talking to us" by revealing problems during the test, while NASA Associate Administrator Amit Kshatriya noted the recurring nature of hydrogen leaks in the SLS rocket and referred to each SLS as a "bespoke component" requiring unique understanding,. Academic institutions are also offering insights into relevant areas like solar activity, space weather, human performance, and AI applications.
Technical issues and safety concerns dominate public discussion. The next targeted launch opportunities for Artemis II are in March 2026, specifically between March 6 and March 11, with further opportunities available in April,. NASA teams will thoroughly review data from the recent wet dress rehearsal and work to mitigate all identified issues, which may include conducting a second fueling test before setting an official launch date. The Artemis III lunar landing mission is currently planned for mid-2027,. Common concerns include persistent liquid hydrogen leaks in the SLS rocket, which were also experienced during the Artemis I mission three years prior. The latest delay for Artemis II has fueled discussions about the overall timeline and potential further postponements for subsequent Artemis missions. Astronaut safety remains a natural concern given the technical challenges, with NASA reiterating it as the highest priority. People are actively comparing the Artemis program to the historical Apollo missions, noting differences in goals, targeted landing sites, and the increased international and commercial collaboration in Artemis. Despite extensive evidence and debunking efforts, moon landing conspiracy theories continue to be debated, with some polls indicating a percentage of the public still believes the original Apollo landings were faked, and experts like Professor Anu Ojha highlight the importance of critical thinking to navigate such online information,,,,,.

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market exhibits a prolonged sideways trading pattern, indicating a lack of strong conviction in either direction, but with an underlying pessimistic bias. The price has been confined to a narrow and low-probability range between $0.02 and $0.15 since its inception. While the overall trend is sideways, there is a gentle downward drift from its starting price of $0.08 to its current price of $0.06. This suggests that over time, the market has slowly priced in a lower probability of the event occurring. The $0.15 level has acted as a firm resistance ceiling, while the $0.02 mark has served as a floor of support, representing the market's assessment of the minimum and maximum perceived probabilities so far.
The gradual decline in price is consistent with the provided context regarding mission delays. The recent drop from higher levels in the range toward the current $0.06 price point can be directly attributed to negative news, specifically NASA's announcement of the Artemis II mission delay until at least March 2026. This news introduces significant uncertainty into the timeline for subsequent missions, including the actual moon landing, making the December 2031 deadline appear less achievable to traders. The market has reacted by selling off, adjusting the probability downwards to reflect the increased risk of the resolution deadline being missed.
The total volume of over 31,000 contracts indicates a relatively liquid market with consistent participation, despite the low probabilities. This suggests that traders are actively engaged and that the current price reflects a consensus formed through significant activity. Overall, the chart indicates a persistent and skeptical market sentiment. The inability of the price to sustain any rally above $0.15, combined with its negative reaction to programmatic delays, demonstrates that the market views a successful NASA moon landing by the end of 2031 as a highly unlikely event.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📉 February 03, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 25.0% to 16.0%

Outcome: Before 2028

What happened: The 9.0 percentage point drop in the "NASA lands on the moon? Before 2028" prediction market on February 3, 2026, was primarily driven by the official announcement of a delay for NASA's Artemis II mission. On that day, NASA confirmed that the Artemis II crewed flyby mission would be postponed from its February target to March 2026 due to a liquid hydrogen leak detected during a critical "wet dress rehearsal" on February 2. This setback, widely reported by traditional news outlets, reinforced skepticism about the broader Artemis program's timeline, particularly for the Artemis III mission, which is intended to be the first human lunar landing and is already officially projected for no earlier than 2028. NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman also posted on X (formerly Twitter) about the delay, which coincided with the news dissemination and market movement.

📈 February 02, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 18.0% to 28.0%

Outcome: Before 2028

What happened: The 10.0 percentage point spike in the "NASA lands on the moon? Before 2028" prediction market on February 2, 2026, was primarily driven by the commencement of the Artemis II wet dress rehearsal. On that day, NASA began fueling its Space Launch System (SLS) rocket for a "make-or-break test" to determine when astronauts could launch on a lunar fly-around, generating initial optimism for the Artemis program's progress. This positive sentiment likely preceded the widespread understanding of a significant hydrogen leak detected during the fueling, which ultimately led to the Artemis II mission being delayed to March. Social media activity from key figures did not appear to be the primary driver of this positive price movement; rather, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman's post on X (Twitter) announcing the Artemis II delay occurred on February 3, after the reported price spike. Therefore, traditional news and announcements, specifically the anticipation of a successful and crucial test for the Artemis program, acted as the primary driver, with social media being irrelevant to this positive price movement.

4. Market Data

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Contract Snapshot

The provided page content does not include the contract rules necessary to determine the triggers for YES/NO resolution, key dates/deadlines, or any special settlement conditions for the "NASA lands on the moon?" market. This information is typically found within a dedicated "Rules" or "Market Details" section on the Kalshi market page.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Implied probability
Before 2028 $0.18 $0.85 18%
Before 2027 $0.07 $0.94 7%

Market Discussion

Discussions surrounding "NASA lands on the moon?" primarily revolve around the progress and challenges of the Artemis program, NASA's current initiative to return humans to the lunar surface . A significant point of debate is the technical difficulties and subsequent delays for upcoming missions, such as the recent postponement of Artemis II to at least March 2026 due to a hydrogen fuel leak and concerns regarding the Orion spacecraft's heat shield . Furthermore, public opinion shows a mixed view, with only a small percentage of Americans considering human moon landings a top priority, often favoring other objectives like asteroid monitoring and climate change research.

5. Is a Crewed Artemis III Lunar Landing Feasible by 2026?

SLS Core Stage-3 Final AssemblyProjected for Spring of 2026
Artemis II Launch TargetNo earlier than March 2026
Starship HLS Development StatusSeveral years behind schedule [learnings]
SLS Core Stage-3 production is advanced, but faces an aggressive timeline. Manufacturing for Artemis III's Space Launch System (SLS) Core Stage-3 (CS-3) is in an advanced state, with major structural components complete and final assembly projected for Spring of 2026. Strategic shifts, such as moving engine outfitting to Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and eliminating the Green Run test, aim to streamline production and accelerate the timeline. However, this schedule is aggressive and leaves minimal margin for unforeseen delays, with Artemis II providing a benchmark for multi-month processing at KSC after core stage delivery.
Artemis I revealed critical anomalies impacting human-rating certification. Post-flight analysis of Artemis I identified several critical anomalies that affect human-rating certification for future missions. The most significant concern is the unexpected spalling of the Orion capsule's heat shield material during reentry, prompting modified reentry profiles for Artemis II and planned material manufacturing changes for Artemis III [learnings]. Additional issues include deficiencies in the life support system circuitry, underperforming crew module batteries, and a power distribution anomaly in the European Service Module [learnings]. These issues collectively introduce significant risk and uncertainty into the certification timeline, prompting the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) to highlight "accumulating risks" [learnings].
SpaceX HLS delays severely hinder Artemis III's 2026 lunar landing goal. For a crewed lunar landing by 2026, the development status of the SpaceX Starship Human Landing System (HLS) is the overriding factor. The HLS is reportedly several years behind schedule and must achieve numerous unprecedented milestones, including routine orbital operations, in-orbit cryogenic propellant transfer, and an uncrewed lunar landing demonstration, none of which had been met as of early 2026 [learnings]. The absence of a ready lander renders the Artemis III mission impossible within the 2026 timeframe, irrespective of the SLS/Orion vehicle's readiness. Consequently, the probability of NASA executing a crewed lunar landing by the end of 2026 is exceptionally low, primarily due to these HLS development delays [learnings].

6. What is the status of SpaceX's Artemis III HLS contract milestones?

Ship-to-Ship Refueling DemoTargeted for 2026
Uncrewed Lunar Landing DemoSlated for 2026
Internal Propellant Transfer TestMarch 2024
SpaceX must complete two key demonstrations for Artemis III. The successful and timely completion of two primary technical milestones by SpaceX under its Human Landing System (HLS) Appendix H contract is essential for NASA's Artemis III mission. These uncompleted requirements are the demonstration of large-scale, in-orbit cryogenic propellant transfer and the successful execution of an uncrewed lunar landing and ascent test. Both critical demonstrations are currently projected to occur in 2026, with the ship-to-ship refueling not expected before 2026 and the uncrewed landing also slated for 2026. These demonstrations are fundamental prerequisites due to significant engineering challenges in cryogenic fluid management and precision lunar landing, which will ultimately impact the Artemis III mission schedule.
In-orbit cryogenic refueling is a complex and vital prerequisite. The Starship HLS architecture is entirely dependent on its ability to be fully refueled in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) before translunar injection. This necessitates an unprecedented ship-to-ship cryogenic propellant transfer, involving autonomous rendezvous, docking, high-volume transfer, and boil-off management over potentially weeks. While a foundational internal tank-to-tank propellant transfer, involving approximately 10 metric tons of liquid oxygen, was successfully conducted in March 2024 during Starship's Integrated Flight Test 3 (IFT-3) to validate propellant settling methods, the more complex ship-to-ship demonstration faces significant hurdles. This demonstration, now targeted for 2026, involves long-duration cryogenic fluid management, boil-off mitigation over extended periods, and overall system reliability in orbit.
An uncrewed lunar landing demonstration is also scheduled for 2026. Before crewed missions, SpaceX must conduct a full-scale, uncrewed lunar landing demonstration, currently projected for 2026. This mission will validate the HLS vehicle's performance from lunar orbit insertion to a soft touchdown, testing its main Raptor engines and autonomous guidance, navigation, and control (GNC) algorithms for precision landing and hazard avoidance. Importantly, the contract only requires a safe landing, not liftoff, to de-risk this test. This timeline is interdependent on the success of the preceding orbital refueling campaign and broader Artemis program schedules, such as potential delays related to the Orion spacecraft. Despite these remaining challenges, SpaceX has completed over 30 HLS-specific milestones, including critical design reviews and engine testing, demonstrating foundational design maturity for the HLS variant.

7. What is the Current Development Status of Axiom's Artemis III Spacesuit?

Preliminary Design Review StatusCompleted in March 2025
PLSS Technology Readiness LevelTRL 6 (System/subsystem prototype demonstration in relevant environment)
Crewed Pressurized Testing HoursOver 800 hours
Axiom Space successfully completed AxEMU Preliminary Design Review in March 2025. This milestone confirms the preliminary design meets NASA's safety and performance requirements for Artemis III lunar surface Extravehicular Activities (EVAs). The successful Preliminary Design Review (PDR) established design feasibility, verified system interfaces, and matured subsystems, representing a significant de-risking event. Following the PDR, Axiom delivered over 1,200 Critical Design Review (CDR) products to NASA and initiated flight hardware production. The joint NASA-Axiom CDR is the next major milestone, scheduled for early 2026.
The AxEMU Portable Life Support System achieved an inferred TRL 6. This Technology Readiness Level signifies a system or subsystem prototype demonstration in a relevant environment. This assessment is based on extensive testing, including over 800 hours of crewed pressurized testing, integrated trials with lander mockups, and simulations in NASA's Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory. These rigorous tests validate the Portable Life Support System's (PLSS) functionality and human-factor elements under flight-like conditions. The system is now advancing toward TRL 7, which will be validated during upcoming human-in-the-loop vacuum chamber tests as part of the joint NASA-Axiom CDR.

8. What Are the FY2027 Budget Projections for NASA's Artemis Programs?

HLS FY2027 Projected Request$3.8 billion to $4.5 billion
SLS Block 1B FY2027 Projected Request$900 million to $1.3 billion
FY2026 Final NASA Budget$24.4 billion
The President's FY2027 budget proposal for NASA is highly anticipated. The President's Fiscal Year 2027 (FY2027) budget request for NASA's Human Landing System (HLS) and Space Launch System (SLS) Block 1B programs is expected soon, with projections based on historical trends and political dynamics . This upcoming request follows a contentious FY2026 budget cycle where the White House proposed a 24.3 percent reduction to NASA's top-line budget , intending to phase out SLS and Orion post-Artemis III and transition to commercial alternatives . However, Congress largely rejected this vision, ultimately appropriating $24.4 billion for NASA in FY2026, signaling strong bipartisan support for the existing Artemis framework . This establishes a critical context of strategic tension for the upcoming FY2027 request.
Significant funding levels are projected for HLS and SLS Block 1B. For FY2027, the Human Landing System (HLS) program is projected to receive a request of $3.8 billion to $4.5 billion. This substantial figure is necessary to support two parallel commercial development efforts and maintain aggressive Artemis III and IV lunar landing timelines, considering historical underfunding where an estimated $3.2 billion annual need for HLS was not met . The SLS Block 1B, crucial for Artemis IV missions by increasing co-manifested payload capacity to the Moon , is projected to receive between $900 million and $1.3 billion. This funding level is vital for late-stage development, including structural testing and avionics integration, as part of its nearly $5 billion total development cost .
OIG reports would likely flag significant risks to these programs. Independent assessments, such as those from the NASA Office of Inspector General (OIG), would likely flag significant risks to these programs. For HLS, despite a robust FY2027 projection, the OIG would emphasize the high risk to cost-to-complete due to past funding instability , advocating for multi-year appropriations. For SLS Block 1B, the OIG would scrutinize the nearly $5 billion total development cost for insufficient budget and schedule reserves, warning that technical challenges could lead to cost overruns and delays beyond the planned FY2027 expenditures.

9. What is the Minimum Time and Critical Systems for Artemis III Certification?

Minimum Time Buffer (accelerated)6 to 12 months
Planned Time Buffer (nominal)approximately 15 months
Artemis II Launch (No Earlier Than)March 6, 2026
Artemis III requires a critical time buffer after Artemis II splashdown. The certification of Artemis III is contingent upon a significant time buffer following Artemis II, which is dedicated to essential data analysis, engineering review, and formal flight certification. While a nominal 15-month gap is currently planned between Artemis II (no earlier than March 6, 2026) and Artemis III (no earlier than mid-2027), an absolute minimum of 6 to 12 months is suggested under highly aggressive, best-case scenarios, assuming no major anomalies. This period is crucial for ensuring all crew safety and mission assurance protocols are rigorously met.
The Post-Flight Assessment Review is crucial for certification. A core element of this buffer is the Post-Flight Assessment Review (PFAR) process, which systematically evaluates every aspect of the preceding mission. For Artemis II, this review will be more intricate due to the presence of a human crew, necessitating the incorporation of crew health and performance data in addition to telemetry and hardware analysis. Lessons learned from the Artemis I PFAR, such as unexpected heat shield erosion and power anomalies, directly inform the evaluation plan for Artemis II, emphasizing the need for thorough investigation of any issues before Artemis III can be certified for flight.
Several Orion systems need component-level analysis from Artemis II. Key Orion spacecraft systems requiring intensive post-flight analysis of Artemis II hardware for Artemis III certification include the Thermal Protection System (heat shield), Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS), European Service Module (ESM), and Avionics, Communications, and Power Systems. Specifically, the heat shield necessitates physical core sampling and microscopic analysis due to unexpected erosion observed on Artemis I. The ECLSS must be thoroughly evaluated for component wear and potential contamination, especially given the presence of a human crew. Detailed flight data analysis of the ESM's propulsion, power, and thermal control is vital for preparing Artemis III's more complex maneuvers, while avionics will undergo scrutiny for radiation effects and communication integrity.

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Several bullish catalysts could increase the likelihood of NASA landing on the moon by December 31, 2027. A successful Artemis II mission, targeted for March-April 2026, would validate the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and Orion spacecraft, building confidence for the subsequent crewed lunar landing. Significant progress in SpaceX's Starship Human Landing System (HLS) development and testing is also critical, including successful orbital refueling demonstrations by June 2026 and an uncrewed lunar landing test by June 2027. Timely completion and certification of lunar spacesuits before mid-2027, along with continued robust congressional funding for Artemis III, are additional positive indicators for the mission's success.
Conversely, several bearish catalysts pose risks to the Artemis III timeline. Further delays to Artemis II beyond April 2026, potentially due to lingering technical issues such as liquid hydrogen leaks, could create a ripple effect on Artemis III. Major setbacks or failures in SpaceX Starship Human Landing System (HLS) development or testing, including critical orbital refueling or uncrewed lunar landing tests, would directly impede Artemis III. An internal NASA analysis from December 2023 suggested a 30% chance of the Starship lander being delayed by at least 1.5 years, potentially pushing its readiness to February 2028. An official announcement of Artemis III delaying beyond NASA's current public target of mid-2027 would also negatively impact probabilities. Furthermore, significant cuts to the Artemis program budget or unforeseen major technical issues with core components like SLS, Orion, or HLS could lead to substantial delays and cost overruns.

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: December 31, 2027
  • Closes: December 31, 2027

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Several bullish catalysts could increase the likelihood of NASA landing on the moon by December 31, 2027.
  • Trigger: A successful Artemis II mission, targeted for March-April 2026, would validate the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and Orion spacecraft, building confidence for the subsequent crewed lunar landing [^] .
  • Trigger: Significant progress in SpaceX's Starship Human Landing System (HLS) development and testing is also critical, including successful orbital refueling demonstrations by June 2026 and an uncrewed lunar landing test by June 2027 [^] .
  • Trigger: Timely completion and certification of lunar spacesuits before mid-2027, along with continued robust congressional funding for Artemis III, are additional positive indicators for the mission's success [^] .

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 2 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 2 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • MOON-25DEC31: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
  • MOON-25: NO (Jan 01, 2025)