Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect the US to grant a license for a new nuclear reactor before 2027, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Deep research encountered server errors, preventing any data retrieval. Crucial information on NRC license timeline duration remains unavailable. No specific research findings or supporting data could be accessed. Comprehensive catalyst analysis for this market remains unperformed. * Octagon model probability perfectly matches current market probability.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Grants license 26.0% 26.5% Research error: Internal Server Error

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market exhibits a clear, long-term downward trend, indicating a steady decline in trader confidence that a new nuclear reactor will be licensed before 2027. The price opened at a 33% probability and has since fallen to its current level of 27%. The market has traded within a wide range, from a low of 16% to a high of 43%, suggesting significant shifts in sentiment over time. However, the overarching trajectory remains bearish. Without any provided external news or context, it is impossible to attribute specific price drops or spikes to particular real-world events; the movements reflect traders' reactions to information not available in this summary.
The total volume of over 134,000 contracts traded signifies a liquid and active market with considerable participant conviction. Key technical levels have been established by the market's trading history. The price of $0.43 has acted as a strong resistance level, representing a peak in optimism that has not been revisited. Conversely, the $0.16 mark has served as a firm support level, where buying interest was strong enough to reverse the downward trend. The current price of $0.27 sits closer to the historical support than the resistance, reinforcing the overall pessimistic market sentiment. The chart suggests that, over time, the collective assessment has increasingly favored the "NO" outcome, viewing the challenges to licensing a new reactor within the given timeframe as substantial.

3. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

Based on the provided market title and URL, this market predicts whether the US grants a license for a new nuclear reactor. A YES resolution is triggered if such a license is granted by the implied deadline of December 31, 2026. A NO resolution occurs if the license is not granted by this date; no special settlement conditions are detailed in the provided content.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Implied probability
Grants license $0.26 $0.75 26%

Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

4. What Prevents Accessing Research Findings Currently?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data ExtractedNone
ImpactFindings unavailable
No specific findings or data were retrieved due to a server error. An internal server error was encountered during the research process, preventing the successful execution of the requested research query. This technical issue resulted in the inability to access or process information.
No key data points or outcomes could be extracted currently. Consequently, it is impossible to extract any specific data points or summarize research outcomes at this time. The system encountered an unexpected error, leading to a complete failure in obtaining the requested information.
Research findings require re-attempting the query after resolution. To obtain the desired research findings, the research query must be re-attempted once the underlying internal server error is resolved. No further details are available regarding the original research question at this time.

5. What Key Information Was Unavailable Due to Research Errors?

Research StatusFailed
Error DescriptionInternal Server Error
Data ExtractionNot possible
The research query encountered a technical error. The research process encountered an unexpected internal server error, preventing the successful completion of the query. Consequently, no specific findings or data points could be extracted regarding the technical or policy issues (such as high-assay low-enriched uranium fuel or passive safety systems) generating Requests for Additional Information (RAIs) or causing the longest delays in the advanced reactor licensing process.
No data is available for analysis. Due to this technical issue, the system was unable to access or process the necessary information to provide an answer. Therefore, key metrics, summary paragraphs, and direct citations pertaining to the requested analysis are unavailable for this particular request.

6. Why Was Research Data Unavailable for This Request?

Research OutcomeFailed
Error TypeInternal Server Error
Data RetrievedNone
The research encountered a critical server error, preventing any data retrieval. During the attempted research into the voting history and public statements of current NRC Commissioners regarding first-of-a-kind (FOAK) advanced reactor designs and the new 'Part 53' regulatory framework, an internal server error was encountered. This technical issue prevented the system from retrieving any specific findings related to the original question, indicating a problem within the research mechanism itself rather than an absence of information on the subject.
This technical failure resulted in no substantive findings or data. As a direct consequence of this server-side error, no data points, statistics, or detailed summaries could be generated. The system was unable to access or process the necessary information required to formulate a substantive response, leaving the research incomplete and entirely devoid of specific content to report.

7. Was the Research Query Successfully Processed?

Research OutcomeFailed
Error TypeInternal Server Error
Data AvailabilityNone
Server error prevented successful research task completion. The research query encountered an internal server error, which critically prevented the successful completion of the assigned research task. This technical issue indicates a problem on the server side that specifically hindered the ability to retrieve or process any relevant information pertinent to the query.
No specific findings, data points, or insights could be extracted from the research. Due to this critical error, no information related to the original question could be retrieved or formatted. Consequently, the requested content cannot be provided at this time.

8. What Caused the Research Query to Fail?

Research OutcomeFailed to retrieve information
Specific ErrorInternal Server Error
Data AvailabilityNone
Research failed to determine NRC COL timeline duration. The attempt to research the minimum required duration for the mandatory remaining phases of the NRC's standard COL review process timeline (NUREG-1555) was unsuccessful. This also prevented an assessment of whether the critical path contains any buffer before the January 1, 2027, deadline for an application submitted today.
Data retrieval was prevented by an internal server error. The research system encountered an unexpected issue during the data retrieval process. An 'Internal Server Error' was specifically reported, which indicates a server-side problem. This issue hindered the completion of the research task and prevented the extraction of any information pertinent to the query.
No specific data or insights were successfully obtained. Consequently, no key data points, detailed insights, or statistics could be gathered from this research attempt regarding the NRC COL review timeline. Further investigation or a retry of the research query may be necessary to obtain the desired information.

9. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Catalyst analysis not available.

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 01, 2027
  • Closes: January 01, 2027

10. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Catalyst analysis not available.

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 2 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 2 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXREACTOR-25DEC31: NO (Jan 01, 2026)
  • REACTOR-24DEC31: NO (Jan 01, 2025)