US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?

TerraPower's Natrium project has achieved significant regulatory milestones. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has issued a favorable Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) and completed the Final Safety Evaluation (FSER) for the first-of-a-kind advanced reactor. Despite these successes, the project's initial goal of achieving electrons on the grid by 2027 has been revised. Current targets now project fuel loading in 2030, with revenue service expected by 2031, indicating substantial schedule adjustments.

Construction Permit issuance for Natrium is anticipated in early 2027. TerraPower's public plan to begin pouring its first nuclear-related concrete at the Kemmerer site in 2027 serves as a critical indicator, as such activity is legally prohibited prior to the permit's granting. This timeline implies that TerraPower expects to receive the Construction Permit in early 2027, rather than before the end of 2026. Mandatory post-FSER procedural steps, which include public hearings and a Commission vote, are expected to extend into early 2027, making permit issuance before January 1, 2027, highly improbable.

NRC commissioners are proactively advancing streamlined advanced reactor licensing. Contrary to initial premises, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) commissioners are not exhibiting skepticism or opposition to streamlined licensing for advanced reactors. Instead, their actions and statements through early 2026 indicate a proactive and collaborative effort to modernize the regulatory framework. For example, in March 2024, the Commission directed staff to revise the draft proposed 10 CFR Part 53 rule, aiming to remove overly prescriptive requirements and establish a robust, flexible, and performance-based standard. The NRC's internal reform efforts are significantly bolstered by external pressures, including Executive Order 14300 from May 2025 and a major agency reorganization announced in February 2026, both aiming to enhance efficiency and enable high-volume licensing for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and microreactors.

Part 53's late finalization dictates near-term licensing under existing rules. A crucial factor for near-term licensing, particularly for the prediction market ending December 31, 2026, is that the final Part 53 rule is not expected until the end of 2027. This means any license granted before that date must proceed under existing regulations like 10 CFR Parts 50 and 52. Given the unified support for modernization, a blocking minority to deny a construction permit based on principled opposition to advanced reactors or streamlined processes is highly improbable. Any potential 'no' vote would likely stem from specific, unresolved technical or safety issues within a particular application, as the emphasis on "reasonable assurance" remains paramount for the NRC.

No environmental organizations have filed injunctions against advanced reactor licensing. As of early 2026, no environmental organizations have filed formal petitions seeking preliminary injunctions against the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to halt the licensing of TerraPower's Natrium or X-energy's Xe-100 reactors. The legal threshold for securing a preliminary injunction is exceptionally high, demanding petitioners demonstrate a strong likelihood of success on the merits and, crucially, irreparable harm that is neither speculative nor distant. Courts typically defer to the NRC's technical expertise, making it difficult to prove the agency's actions are arbitrary and capricious, particularly given the robust regulatory progress for both advanced reactor projects.

Both reactor designs have achieved significant, positive regulatory milestones. TerraPower and X-energy have reached significant regulatory milestones, strengthening their administrative records. The NRC staff completed its final safety evaluation for TerraPower's Natrium construction permit application in December 2025, concluding that no safety aspects preclude its issuance. Similarly, the NRC staff issued a final safety evaluation for X-energy's Xe-100 Principal Design Criteria in October 2024, deeming it suitable for future licensing. These positive evaluations create a strong administrative record, making it challenging for potential litigants to successfully argue that an injunction is warranted under the Administrative Procedure Act before the 2027 deadline.

Successful injunctions against reactor licensing before 2027 remain unlikely. While future legal challenges from environmental groups against these novel nuclear projects are anticipated, the probability of such challenges successfully securing a preliminary injunction that would halt the licensing process and delay the issuance of a license past the end of 2026 is low. Historically, the judiciary has been reluctant to interfere with NRC activities based on probabilistic risks, as evidenced by cases like State of New York v. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Project delays to date have largely been attributed to technical and supply chain issues rather than litigation.

No Part 50 non-power projects expect construction permit by Q4 2026. As of early 2026, no non-power microreactor or medical isotope projects following the NRC Part 50 licensing pathway have a publicly documented schedule for a final NRC construction permit or operating license decision explicitly forecasted for Q4 2026. However, a new reactor license before 2027 remains highly plausible, most likely stemming from an Operating License (OL) issuance. The strongest candidates for an OL by Q4 2026 are SHINE Technologies, currently in advanced stages of its OL review with ongoing construction inspections, and Abilene Christian University (ACU) / Natura Resources, which received its Construction Permit (CP) in September 2024 and aims for operation by 2026.

Many developers pursue rapid demonstrations via DOE Reactor Pilot Program. Many advanced reactor developers are prioritizing the Department of Energy (DOE) Reactor Pilot Program, aiming for criticality of at least three reactors by July 4, 2026. This program bypasses the traditional NRC process for initial demonstrations. For instance, Atomic Alchemy withdrew its Part 50 application to focus on the DOE program. Other projects in earlier stages of the NRC Part 50 process, such as the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, which plans to submit its CP application in Q1 2026, are not expected to receive a final decision by Q4 2026 due to standard multi-year review cycles.

Industry employs dual-track strategy, leveraging DOE and future NRC pathways. This landscape reveals a dual-track strategy in the advanced reactor industry: utilizing DOE authorization for rapid, first-of-a-kind demonstrations, while simultaneously engaging the NRC for future commercial deployments. The NRC is also undergoing significant modernization, including 2024 amendments allowing risk-informed approaches for non-power reactors and the development of a new Part 53 framework for advanced reactors, anticipated in 2027. This indicates a shift towards more efficient regulatory pathways beyond the immediate Q4 2026 timeframe for new Construction Permits, with a focus on future commercial readiness.

TerraPower's Natrium construction permit is in its final review phase. As of February 2026, the Natrium reactor Construction Permit Application (CPA) is proceeding through its concluding stages, following the completion of the NRC's Final Safety Evaluation (FSE) in December 2025. The permitting process, governed by 10 CFR Part 50, involves two distinct and parallel independent reviews: the Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards (ACRS) review and the mandatory hearing process overseen by the Atomic Safety and Licensing Board (ASLB). Although the NRC successfully accelerated the technical review phases, the remaining statutory and quasi-judicial steps offer limited opportunity for further acceleration.

The mandatory hearing sets the critical path for permit issuance. This hearing, even under an uncontested scenario, is estimated to require 7 to 8 months for completion. Based on this uncontested timeline, the final Commission decision and subsequent permit issuance are projected for October to November 2026. This schedule would provide an approximate two-month buffer before the December 31, 2026 deadline. This two-month buffer is less than the three-month threshold identified as desirable. A primary risk to this tightly constrained schedule is the potential for a contested hearing, which would render the 2026 deadline unattainable.

The likelihood of the US granting a license for a new nuclear reactor before 2027 is significantly bolstered by several bullish catalysts. These include aggressive White House Executive Orders, such as a July 4, 2026, mandate for three new advanced reactors to achieve criticality, and directives to the NRC in May 2025 to fast-track licenses, aiming for an 18-month review process. The Department of Energy has also launched a pilot program to accelerate advanced reactor testing with specific criticality goals. Regulatory hurdles have been reduced by a new NEPA categorical exclusion for advanced reactors, effective February 2, 2026, and the NRC is undergoing a reorganization to streamline decision-making. Strong industry investment from major data center operators, NuScale Power's existing standard design approval, and substantial funding for domestic High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) production further support accelerated deployment. Conversely, bearish catalysts present significant challenges to new reactor licensing within the timeframe. Historically, the US nuclear licensing process has been multi-year and complex, with construction taking several more years, as exemplified by the Vogtle Units 3 and 4 projects which experienced substantial delays and cost overruns. While advanced reactors and SMRs promise efficiency, many are 'first-of-a-kind' designs facing inherent technical and regulatory risks, alongside less developed supply chains. Furthermore, potential public and legal challenges regarding safety, waste, or environmental impacts could still prolong the licensing process. Workforce and supply chain constraints for these new technologies also pose potential hurdles.