What will Trump say in February?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Nicki Minaj is most likely to be mentioned by Trump in February 2026, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Grounded research data is currently unavailable due to internal server errors.
- Octagon model probability is not supported by recent grounded research.
- Significant price spikes and drops occurred over the last three days.
- Crucial key catalyst analysis information remains unavailable at this time.
- The market will close on March 1, 2026, at 3:00 PM UTC.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stimulus | 7.0% | 10.0% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| Third Term | 1.0% | 10.0% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| Nicki Minaj | 1.0% | 10.0% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| Nick Shirley | 6.0% | 10.0% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| Barack Hussein Obama | 1.0% | 10.0% | Model higher by 9.0pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market's price action is characterized by a long-term, persistent downward trend. Opening at a 32.0% probability, the price has steadily eroded over time to its current level of 14.0%, indicating a sustained decrease in market confidence for a "YES" outcome. The most significant movement recorded is a massive 26.0 percentage point spike on February 01, 2026, which saw the price jump from a near-low of 2.0% to 28.0% in a single day. As there is no additional context or news provided, the direct cause for this dramatic, outlier event cannot be identified from the chart data alone. This spike occurred at the beginning of the resolution month, suggesting a powerful, last-minute shift in expectations.
Overall, the chart suggests a market with waning conviction that has been punctuated by a moment of extreme volatility. The total traded volume of 37,838 contracts spread over 469 data points, combined with samples showing zero volume, points to periods of low liquidity and inconsistent trader interest, which can amplify the impact of large trades. Key technical levels include the opening price of $0.32, which has acted as a firm resistance ceiling, and the price floor around $0.09, which has served as support. Despite the dramatic spike in early February, the price has since fallen back to 14.0%, suggesting the event's influence may have been short-lived and the broader bearish sentiment continues to dominate the market's outlook.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Nick Shirley
📉 February 22, 2026: 18.0pp drop
Price decreased from 51.0% to 33.0%
What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}
📈 February 21, 2026: 23.0pp spike
Price increased from 28.0% to 51.0%
What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}
📈 February 20, 2026: 18.0pp spike
Price increased from 15.0% to 33.0%
What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}
Outcome: Nicki Minaj
📈 February 18, 2026: 63.0pp spike
Price increased from 36.0% to 99.0%
What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}
Outcome: Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis
📉 February 17, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 35.0% to 26.0%
What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided page content "What will Trump say in February? Odds & Predictions 2026", the specific details regarding YES/NO resolution triggers, key dates/deadlines, or any special settlement conditions are not available. The provided text only states the market's general topic and year.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barack Hussein Obama | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| DEI / Woke | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Epstein | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Newscum | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Nicki Minaj | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Pelosi | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Predict / Prediction | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Sleepy Joe | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Third Term | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Transgender | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| TrumpRX / TrumpRX.gov | $1.00 | $0.05 | 100% |
| Windmill | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Trump Derangement Syndrome | $0.95 | $0.22 | 95% |
| Greenland | $0.85 | $0.21 | 85% |
| Gulf of America | $0.74 | $0.29 | 74% |
| Fat shot / Ozempic | $0.65 | $0.38 | 65% |
| Turning Point | $0.17 | $0.91 | 17% |
| UFC | $0.13 | $0.92 | 13% |
| Moscow | $0.12 | $0.92 | 12% |
| Nine War | $0.11 | $0.93 | 11% |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | $0.08 | $0.97 | 8% |
| Autism | $0.07 | $0.97 | 7% |
| Stimulus | $0.07 | $0.94 | 7% |
| Nick Shirley | $0.06 | $0.96 | 6% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Why is Research Data Currently Unavailable Due to Errors?
| Research Status | Failed: Internal Server Error |
|---|---|
| Data Points Extracted | None |
| Reason for Failure | Internal Server Error during data retrieval |
A technical error prevented the research query from generating results. The research process encountered an 'Internal Server Error,' which prevented the successful retrieval and processing of information. Consequently, no specific findings or data points could be extracted from the requested research query regarding Donald Trump's projected political objective in Q1 2026.
The system was unable to provide detailed analysis or data. This technical issue meant the system could not access the necessary resources to generate an answer. Therefore, detailed analysis, key data points, and supporting paragraphs concerning whether Trump's messaging is tailored for governing, launching a comeback, or acting as a media provocateur are currently unavailable.
Users are advised that this is a system-level error, a retry is recommended. It is suggested to perform the research query again at a later time, as the issue may be temporary.
6. What Caused the Internal Server Error During Research?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
| Data Retrieved | None |
A technical error prevented the retrieval of information for the research query. The research inquiry, which aimed to identify public appearance venues on Donald Trump's confirmed or tentative schedule for February 2026 and the historical frequency of his use of a target phrase at specific venue types, encountered an "Internal Server Error." This technical malfunction directly prevented the successful retrieval of any information from the system.
Consequently, no specific findings, data points, or detailed analyses were generated. Due to this technical issue, the research could not produce any specific findings, key data points, or detailed analyses for the requested topic. Therefore, no information regarding Trump's scheduled appearances or his historical phrase usage at various venues for February 2026 could be provided.
7. Why Were Research Findings Unable to Be Retrieved?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | Not available |
| Information Retrieved | None |
Technical issues prevented analysis of Trump's phrase triggers for Jan-Feb 2026. The research process encountered an internal server error, which directly inhibited the successful retrieval of any findings pertinent to the question posed. This technical malfunction meant that no data or information could be gathered or subsequently analyzed concerning significant legal deadlines, political rival announcements, or key anniversaries scheduled for January-February 2026 that might historically trigger mentions of the target phrase by Trump within a 48-hour window.
The system could not access necessary resources for the research. Due to this significant technical obstacle, providing specific data points, detailed summaries, or comprehensive insights as initially requested is not possible. The inability to access essential resources fundamentally prevented the completion of the research task.
8. What Was the Outcome of the Research Query?
| Research Status | Failed due to internal server error |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Key Findings | Unable to retrieve |
Research query encountered an internal server error, preventing data retrieval. The research attempt to identify the primary members of Trump's communications and legal advisory teams as of January 2026, and to assess their messaging discipline track record, encountered an 'Internal Server Error'. This technical issue prevented the retrieval of any specific findings or data points related to the query's objectives.
No specific findings or data could be extracted or provided. As a direct result of this server error, no information pertinent to the original question could be extracted from this research attempt. Therefore, no key data, detailed paragraphs, or insights into the teams' compositions or messaging discipline can be provided.
9. Why Are Research Findings Currently Unavailable Due to Error?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Summary Impact | No findings extracted |
Research efforts were hampered by an internal server error. During the research process aimed at determining the typical reporting lag between statements made by Trump and their official confirmation by the resolution source, an internal server error was encountered. This technical issue prevented the successful retrieval of any specific findings or data points, rendering the requested information currently unavailable.
No specific findings or data could be extracted. Consequently, it is not possible to provide key data points or detailed paragraphs summarizing research findings regarding the information flow or whether it creates a predictable price volatility pattern in the first or last week of the resolution month. Due to this technical limitation, it is recommended to re-attempt the research query at a later time.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis not available.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 01, 2026
- Closes: March 01, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis not available.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series
Outcomes: 40 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26MAR01-WIND: YES (Feb 09, 2026)
- KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26MAR01-TRUMR: YES (Feb 09, 2026)
- KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26MAR01-TRUM: YES (Feb 09, 2026)
- KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26MAR01-TRAN: YES (Feb 05, 2026)
- KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26MAR01-SLEE: YES (Feb 05, 2026)
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