Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect "Con Job", with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Grounded research for this market was unavailable due to system errors.
  • Key catalyst analysis for market drivers remains uncompleted.
  • Octagon model and current market probabilities are perfectly aligned.
  • Recent trading experienced significant price drops and spikes.
  • The market will conclude prior to April 1, 2026.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Slopadopolous 27.0% 32.5% Trump frequently uses "Slopadopolous" for DeSantis in rallies and on social media.
Pocahontas 50.0% 49.5% Trump frequently uses "Pocahontas" for Elizabeth Warren, a long-standing attack.
Biden Crime Family 19.0% 25.5% "Biden Crime Family" is a staple phrase in Trump's criticism of the current president.
Crazy Bernie 14.0% 11.5% "Crazy Bernie" is a past moniker for Bernie Sanders, less frequently used now.
Comrade Kamala 12.0% 14.5% "Comrade Kamala" is a specific moniker Trump sometimes uses for Vice President Kamala Harris.

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This market exhibits a clear long-term downward trend, starting at a 44.0% probability and currently trading at 34.0%. Over its history, the price has been highly volatile, trading within a wide range from $0.31 to $0.91. The most recent period has been particularly active, highlighted by a significant 21.0 percentage point spike on February 2, which temporarily drove the perceived probability to 64.0%. However, this optimism was short-lived, as the price has since seen several sharp drops, including a 9.0 point fall on February 22, erasing the earlier gains and pushing the price back toward its historical lows. The current price of $0.34 is testing a key support level established near the market's all-time low of $0.31.
Without specific news context, the direct catalysts for these sharp price movements remain speculative; they likely reflect traders reacting to external events or statements not detailed here. The total volume of 56,529 contracts traded over the market's lifespan suggests a moderately liquid and engaged market. The price action indicates that market sentiment has fundamentally shifted from a period of indecision to a more bearish outlook. The failure to sustain the highs of the February 2 spike and the subsequent decline below the prior support in the mid-40s range suggests strong conviction among sellers. The market now implies a roughly one-in-three chance of the event resolving to YES, reflecting significant skepticism among participants as the price hovers just above its historical floor.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Biden Crime Family

📉 February 22, 2026: 13.0pp drop

Price decreased from 32.0% to 19.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

📈 February 21, 2026: 11.0pp spike

Price increased from 21.0% to 32.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

📉 February 20, 2026: 17.0pp drop

Price decreased from 38.0% to 21.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

Outcome: Con Job

📈 February 19, 2026: 27.0pp spike

Price increased from 72.0% to 99.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

Outcome: Tampon Tim

📈 February 18, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 12.0% to 20.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

4. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market asks whether Donald Trump will say specific nicknames before April 1, 2026. A YES resolution is triggered if he says the nicknames by this deadline, otherwise it resolves to NO. The provided content does not detail the specific nicknames or any special settlement conditions.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Implied probability
Con Job $1.00 $0.01 100%
Whack Job / Wack Job $0.61 $0.45 61%
Pocahontas $0.50 $0.56 50%
Crying Chuck / Cryin Chuck $0.44 $0.60 44%
Low Energy $0.38 $0.68 38%
Marjorie Traitor Greene $0.36 $0.74 36%
Fat Slob $0.27 $0.79 27%
Slopadopolous $0.27 $0.77 27%
Piggy $0.23 $0.82 23%
Rocket Man $0.21 $0.91 21%
Biden Crime Family $0.19 $0.84 19%
Little Communist $0.18 $0.87 18%
Tampon Tim $0.17 $0.89 17%
Crazy Bernie $0.14 $0.90 14%
Comrade Kamala $0.12 $0.91 12%

Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

5. Why Did the Research Encounter an Internal Server Error?

Research OutcomeFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNone
Reason for FailureInternal server issue
An 'Internal Server Error' prevented research data collection and analysis. During the research process, the system encountered an 'Internal Server Error', which indicates a fundamental problem within the system's ability to retrieve or process information. This system-level issue completely hindered any successful data collection or analysis from taking place.
Consequently, no specific findings or analytical content could be generated. Due to this malfunction, the entire research attempt was unsuccessful. Therefore, there are no specific findings, data points, or analytical content available regarding which political figures show the steepest upward trend in media mentions or head-to-head polling against Trump, and thus no probable new targets for a nickname before the market deadline.

6. Why Were Research Findings Unavailable Due to an Internal Error?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data ExtractionUnavailable (No Research Content)
Source InformationNot Applicable (Error Occurred)
Technical issues prevented completion of the requested research analysis. An internal server error occurred during the attempt to analyze the 'nickname introduction rate' per venue type and calendar alignment for the individual's public appearances. This technical issue directly prevented the system from retrieving any relevant data or information necessary for the requested quantitative analysis.
No data or findings could be extracted or summarized. As a result of the premature termination of the research process, no key findings, specific metrics, or supporting sources were obtainable. Consequently, it was impossible to fulfill the request for formatted data points and explanatory paragraphs regarding the specified research question.

7. Why Did Research for This Question Encounter an Internal Server Error?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNone
OutcomeUnable to extract findings
The research process encountered an "Internal Server Error," preventing data retrieval. This system-level issue occurred during the data collection or processing phase. It indicates a technical problem, rather than a lack of available information, concerning Trump's legal cases and media mentions of judges/prosecutors.
No substantive information is available from the failed research. As a direct consequence of the research failure, the original query regarding procedural deadlines, rulings, trial dates, and conservative media mentions for judges and prosecutors before April 1, 2026, remains unanswered.
Further research attempts are required for comprehensive details. To generate a complete response to the query, the research process must be re-initiated to ensure successful data collection and processing.

8. Why Was Research Data Unavailable Due to Internal Server Error?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNot available (System Error)
Key FindingsUnable to extract (No Data)
The research query encountered a critical system error. An 'Internal Server Error' occurred during the research process, which ultimately prevented the retrieval of any specific findings or data points related to the original question. As a direct consequence, no information could be extracted for subsequent analysis.
This system error precluded all data analysis. Due to the encountered system failure, it was not possible to generate any of the requested key data points, detailed paragraphs, or relevant citations. Consequently, further attempts to research this topic are necessary to obtain the required information and complete the intended analysis.

9. Why Was Research Data Unavailable for This Request?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data PointsNot Available
SourcesNone
Research on high-profile political events could not be completed as requested. An internal server error occurred during the research process, which prevented the retrieval of the information regarding exact dates of non-Trump-centric political events scheduled before April 1, 2026, and any historical pattern of nickname introduction following them. This critical issue halted the collection of all relevant data and findings for the specified query.
No specific data or insights are currently available for review. Consequently, no specific data points, statistics, or detailed insights could be generated or presented at this time. The research system encountered a critical error that rendered it unable to process the request and provide comprehensive results.

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Catalyst analysis not available.

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: April 01, 2026
  • Closes: April 01, 2026

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Catalyst analysis not available.

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 33 markets in this series

Outcomes: 24 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26APR01-WITC: YES (Feb 02, 2026)
  • KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26APR01-TOO: YES (Jan 14, 2026)
  • KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26APR01-SLEE: YES (Jan 14, 2026)
  • KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26APR01-SLEA: YES (Jan 21, 2026)
  • KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26APR01-NEWS: YES (Jan 14, 2026)