How long will Trump speak for at the State of the Union?
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 min or above | 81.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| 120 min or above | 59.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| 60 min or above | 1.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| 110 min or above | 75.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| 65 min or above | 1.0% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 min or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| 65 min or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 100% |
| 70 min or above | $0.98 | $0.03 | 98% |
| 75 min or above | $0.98 | $0.04 | 98% |
| 80 min or above | $0.95 | $0.06 | 95% |
| 85 min or above | $0.95 | $0.08 | 95% |
| 90 min or above | $0.91 | $0.11 | 91% |
| 95 min or above | $0.88 | $0.20 | 88% |
| 100 min or above | $0.81 | $0.22 | 81% |
| 105 min or above | $0.78 | $0.23 | 78% |
| 110 min or above | $0.75 | $0.27 | 75% |
| 115 min or above | $0.69 | $0.38 | 69% |
| 120 min or above | $0.59 | $0.43 | 59% |
| 125 min or above | $0.50 | $0.51 | 50% |
| 130 min or above | $0.40 | $0.70 | 40% |
| 135 min or above | $0.29 | $0.76 | 29% |
| 140 min or above | $0.21 | $0.80 | 21% |
| 145 min or above | $0.14 | $0.89 | 14% |
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