1. Executive Verdict

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Biden 90% — Insufficient data
Pocahontas 10% — Insufficient data
Charlie Kirk 57% — Insufficient data
Witkoff 47% — Insufficient data
Walz 25% — Insufficient data

2. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Implied probability
Biden $0.90 $0.11 90%
Marco / Rubio $0.73 $0.30 73%
Lincoln $0.60 $0.42 60%
President Xi $0.58 $0.45 58%
Charlie Kirk $0.57 $0.44 57%
Putin $0.57 $0.47 57%
Hegseth $0.54 $0.48 54%
Zelensky $0.53 $0.50 53%
Kristi / Noem $0.51 $0.51 51%
Thune $0.47 $0.54 47%
Witkoff $0.47 $0.54 47%
Pam / Bondi $0.46 $0.56 46%
Bessent $0.45 $0.57 45%
Homan $0.45 $0.58 45%
Kamala $0.43 $0.60 43%
Bibi / Netanyahu $0.42 $0.60 42%
Kash / Patel $0.42 $0.62 42%
Obama $0.40 $0.62 40%
Jared / Kushner $0.37 $0.65 37%
Schumer $0.35 $0.69 35%
Elon / Musk $0.34 $0.67 34%
Reagan $0.34 $0.70 34%
Clinton $0.33 $0.70 33%
Newsom / Newscum $0.32 $0.69 32%
Usha $0.31 $0.70 31%
Karoline / Leavitt $0.30 $0.72 30%
Howard / Lutnick $0.28 $0.76 28%
Modi $0.27 $0.74 27%
Walz $0.25 $0.78 25%
Zohran / Mamdani $0.22 $0.79 22%
Keir / Starmer $0.19 $0.82 19%
Prince Mohammed $0.16 $0.85 16%
Pelosi $0.15 $0.86 15%
Pocahontas $0.10 $0.91 10%