What will Trump say during the State of the Union?
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto / Bitcoin | 36% | — | Insufficient data |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | 57% | — | Insufficient data |
| Sleepy Joe | 46% | — | Insufficient data |
| Highest Inflation | 63% | — | Insufficient data |
| Hoax | 58% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | $0.93 | $0.08 | 93% |
| ICE / National Guard | $0.87 | $0.14 | 87% |
| 250 | $0.86 | $0.16 | 86% |
| Fraud | $0.85 | $0.16 | 85% |
| Nuclear | $0.85 | $0.17 | 85% |
| Radical Left | $0.84 | $0.18 | 84% |
| Trump | $0.83 | $0.18 | 83% |
| Fentanyl / Cocaine | $0.82 | $0.21 | 82% |
| Woke / DEI | $0.81 | $0.22 | 81% |
| Hottest | $0.74 | $0.27 | 74% |
| Olympics / World Cup | $0.73 | $0.28 | 73% |
| Affordability | $0.71 | $0.30 | 71% |
| Mental Institution | $0.68 | $0.33 | 68% |
| Transgender | $0.68 | $0.34 | 68% |
| The State of the / our Union is Strong | $0.68 | $0.33 | 68% |
| MAHA / Make America Healthy Again | $0.67 | $0.34 | 67% |
| Eight War | $0.66 | $0.35 | 66% |
| Highest Inflation | $0.63 | $0.38 | 63% |
| Ballroom | $0.59 | $0.42 | 59% |
| Hoax | $0.58 | $0.43 | 58% |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | $0.57 | $0.45 | 57% |
| Vaccine / Autism | $0.53 | $0.48 | 53% |
| Drill Baby Drill | $0.47 | $0.56 | 47% |
| Sleepy Joe | $0.46 | $0.56 | 46% |
| Windmill | $0.44 | $0.58 | 44% |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | $0.36 | $0.66 | 36% |
| UFC | $0.34 | $0.67 | 34% |
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