What will Trump say during his Georgia rally?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Trump to say "Democrat" during his Georgia rally, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Trump's endorsement for the 14th District election was a primary focus.
- White House expected rally to focus on economy and affordability.
- FBI raid on Fulton County election offices was a significant topic.
- Trump consistently makes claims about 2020 election integrity.
- The market price dropped significantly on February 19, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home / Housing | 1.0% | 95.0% | Trump frequently discusses economic well-being, a broad topic that encompasses housing. |
| Bad Bunny | 2.0% | 1.5% | Bad Bunny is a musician with no direct connection to Trump's usual political rhetoric. |
| Judy Shelton | 1.0% | 0.5% | Judy Shelton's failed Fed nomination is old news and lacks current political relevance. |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | 4.0% | 3.0% | Cryptocurrency is not a core topic in Trump's typical rally speeches. |
| ICE / National Guard | 33.0% | 32.0% | Immigration enforcement and border security are consistent, high-priority topics for Trump at rallies. |
Current Context
Trump’s recent Georgia rally revisited debunked election fraud claims amidst new controversies. On February 19, 2026, Donald Trump held a rally in Rome, Georgia, marking his first visit to the state since reclaiming the White House [^]. While the White House stated the focus would be on the economy, Trump's speech largely revisited debunked claims of widespread 2020 election fraud, praised the recent FBI raid on Fulton County's election offices, and advocated for voter identification requirements [^]. This rally occurred amidst significant recent developments, including an FBI raid in late January and early February 2026, where 2020 voting records and ballots were seized from Fulton County election offices based on claims about the 2020 election that have been widely debunked [^]. Experts described this action as an "extraordinary escalation" and unprecedented federal interference in state election administration, especially as Donald Trump reportedly ordered Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard to be present and orchestrate a call with agents on the ground [^]. Concurrently, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis is actively disputing a request for nearly $17 million in legal fees from Donald Trump and his allies, following the November 2025 dismissal of her racketeering case against them [^]. Willis argues that paying such a "preposterous sum" would deplete her office's annual budget and contends that a 2025 Georgia law, which enables defendants to bill for legal costs in dismissed cases, is vaguely worded and cannot be applied retroactively [^].
Public interest centers on specific rally statements, raid justification, and legal implications. People are actively seeking detailed accounts of Trump's statements regarding the economy, his unsubstantiated claims of 2020 election fraud, and his comments on the FBI raid, along with information about the affidavit used to justify the FBI's ballot seizure and the legal basis for such unprecedented federal intervention [^]. The current status of Fani Willis's legal fee dispute, its potential financial impact on her office, and the broader legal and political ramifications of the dropped election interference case are also key areas of inquiry [^]. Expert opinions highlight the unprecedented nature of the FBI raid; Wendy R. Weiser of the Brennan Center for Justice called it an "extraordinary escalation," and Tammy Patrick from the nonpartisan Election Center noted the federal government seizing voting materials in this manner is unprecedented [^]. David Becker, a former Justice Department attorney, suggested the raid could be "used to create an impression, potentially a justification for a potential federal election interference" [^]. Furthermore, Edward Whelan, a conservative former Justice Department lawyer, labeled Trump's pursuit of billions from the government he leads for perceived damages as a "glaring conflict of interest" and "outrageous" [^]. Common questions and concerns revolve around election integrity, federal overreach in state election administration, legal accountability for attempts to overturn election results, the political motivations behind Trump's rhetoric and visits to Georgia, and the boundaries of presidential power regarding personal legal claims [^]. There are no specific upcoming Trump rallies in Georgia identified within the last seven days, and the legal dispute regarding Fani Willis’s fees is ongoing [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market displayed a consistently bullish trend from its inception, indicating a strong and unwavering market sentiment for a "YES" outcome. Opening at a high probability of 87.0%, the price never dropped below 84.0%, establishing this range as a firm support level throughout its trading history. The market then trended upward, ultimately consolidating near 99.0%. This price action suggests that traders began with a high degree of confidence that Trump would address the topic in question, and this conviction only strengthened over time, culminating in near-certainty by the market's conclusion.
The final price surge to 99.0% on the resolution date, February 19, 2026, was a direct reaction to external news events. As news outlets reported that President Trump's speech at the Georgia rally did, in fact, focus heavily on his debunked 2020 election fraud claims, the market probability aligned with the confirmed reality. The substantial total trading volume of 247,161 contracts, particularly the increase in activity as the event neared, underscores the market's high conviction. This late-stage volume, coupled with the price finalizing at near 100%, indicates traders were acting on the conclusive information as it became public, efficiently pricing the market to its logical resolution.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 February 19, 2026: 41.0pp drop
Price decreased from 90.0% to 49.0%
Outcome: ICE / National Guard
What happened: The primary driver of the 41.0 percentage point drop in the "ICE / National Guard" outcome for the "What will Trump say during his Georgia rally?" prediction market on February 19, 2026, was the widespread traditional news coverage detailing the actual focus of President Trump's speech [^]. News reports on the day of the rally indicated that Trump's team insisted he would concentrate on the economy, while his initial remarks primarily addressed debunked claims of voter fraud and tariffs [^]. This information, disseminated by major news outlets, directly contradicted the expectation that "ICE / National Guard" would be a prominent part of his address, leading to a significant market correction [^]. Social media activity was mostly irrelevant to this specific price drop, as no influential posts emerged on February 19, 2026, directly downplaying the likelihood of Trump mentioning "ICE / National Guard" at the rally [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The provided page content, "What will Trump say during his Georgia rally? Odds & Predictions 2026," describes the market's topic but does not detail the exact conditions for a YES or NO resolution. Information regarding key dates, deadlines, or any special settlement conditions is also not present within the provided text.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 401K | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| America First | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Crime / Criminal | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Democrat | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Home / Housing | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Hottest | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| ID / Identification | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Investment / Invested | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Lieutenant | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| November 5 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Radical Left | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Sleepy Joe | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Supreme Court | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Transgender | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Venezuela / Maduro | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Iran | $0.40 | $0.63 | 40% |
| ICE / National Guard | $0.33 | $0.69 | 33% |
| Fraud | $0.32 | $0.74 | 32% |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | $0.24 | $0.78 | 24% |
| Obliterate / Obliterated | $0.23 | $0.80 | 23% |
| Marjorie Traitor Greene | $0.19 | $0.83 | 19% |
| Drill Baby Drill | $0.16 | $0.86 | 16% |
| Highest Inflation | $0.16 | $0.86 | 16% |
| No No No | $0.15 | $0.87 | 15% |
| Golden Dome | $0.13 | $0.92 | 13% |
| RINO | $0.06 | $0.96 | 6% |
| Epstein | $0.05 | $0.97 | 5% |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | $0.04 | $0.98 | 4% |
| Bad Bunny | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Judy Shelton | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
People are discussing and debating that Donald Trump's recent Georgia rally would likely focus on his economic agenda, emphasizing jobs, affordability, and the benefits of his tariffs [^]. However, observers and news commentary also anticipated that he would reiterate his unsubstantiated claims of 2020 election fraud and criticize political opponents, including Governor Brian Kemp and potentially former ally Marjorie Taylor Greene [^]. Additionally, ongoing themes such as immigration, border security, and various cultural and social issues were expected to feature prominently in his remarks [^].
5. What specific timestamped quotes from the official
Research data not available.
6. How do the verbatim transcripts of the rally from
Research data not available.
7. Does the fine print of the market rules define the
Research data not available.
8. Beyond a simple keyword match, does the context an
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9. What is the single, designated primary data source
Research data not available.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts Influencing Trump's Georgia Rally Speech
President Trump's visit to Rome, Georgia, was heavily influenced by the ongoing special election in the 14th Congressional District, making his endorsement of a candidate for Marjorie Taylor Greene's former seat a primary focus of his remarks [^] . The White House also explicitly set the expectation that the visit would concentrate on the economy and affordability, ensuring these national issues featured prominently in his speech [^]. Furthermore, the recent FBI raid on Fulton County election offices, combined with Trump's persistent claims of 2020 election fraud, made it highly probable he would reiterate debunked claims regarding Georgia's voting system integrity [^].
Beyond these core drivers, an aggressive immigration crackdown and the resulting "judicial emergency" in Georgia's federal courts also provided a strong likelihood that Trump would address his immigration policies [^] . While official White House messaging prior to the event emphasized a disciplined economic focus, which could have constrained tangents, Trump's rallies are often characterized by wide-ranging commentary [^]. Ultimately, the content of his speech delivered on February 19, 2026, directly determined the outcome of the prediction market, with news reporting and official transcriptions solidifying the definitive record before the market's settlement on February 20, 2026, at 3:00 PM UTC [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: February 20, 2026
- Closes: February 20, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: President Trump's visit to Rome, Georgia, was heavily influenced by the ongoing special election in the 14th Congressional District, making his endorsement of a candidate for Marjorie Taylor Greene's former seat a primary focus of his remarks [^] .
- Trigger: The White House also explicitly set the expectation that the visit would concentrate on the economy and affordability, ensuring these national issues featured prominently in his speech [^] .
- Trigger: Furthermore, the recent FBI raid on Fulton County election offices, combined with Trump's persistent claims of 2020 election fraud, made it highly probable he would reiterate debunked claims regarding Georgia's voting system integrity [^] .
- Trigger: Beyond these core drivers, an aggressive immigration crackdown and the resulting "judicial emergency" in Georgia's federal courts also provided a strong likelihood that Trump would address his immigration policies [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series
Outcomes: 24 resolved YES, 26 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB20-VENE: YES (Feb 19, 2026)
- KXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB20-NO: YES (Feb 19, 2026)
- KXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB20-OBLI: NO (Feb 19, 2026)
- KXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB20-AMER: YES (Feb 19, 2026)
- KXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB20-GOLD: NO (Feb 19, 2026)
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